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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 15:39
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Firewalled I'm afraid.....................
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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 16:30
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Does anyone believe such 'assurances'? How meaningful is a private 'assurance' when it has not been endorsed formally by the US Congress?
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Old 8th Sep 2020, 11:27
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/w...rder-wznmnbkbg

Tensions soar after shots fired across Himalayan border

Shots have been fired across the Himalayan border that separates India and China, ratcheting up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

Each side accused the other of opening fire today across the border known as Line of Actual Control (LAC). Unease between the two countries has been rising for months around the disputed region, but if an exchange of fire is confirmed it would be the first time ammunition has been used for 45 years. Beijing accused Delhi of “provocation” by firing at its patrolling soldiers and urged India to refrain from “dangerous” actions.

On Monday night, troops of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) attempted to close in on a forward Indian position at the LAC, the de facto border, the Indian army said in a statement. “And when dissuaded by [Indian troops], PLA troops fired a few rounds in the air in an attempt to intimidate [our] troops,” the army said in a statement today, adding that the Indian side acted with restraint. “At no stage has the Indian army transgressed across the LAC or resorted to use of any aggressive means, including firing,” it said.

China said the Indians had breached the border. “The Indian troops brazenly made [a] gunshot threat to the patrolling Chinese border guards who came forward for negotiations, and the Chinese border guards were forced to take countermeasures to stabilise the situation,” said Zhang Shuili, a representative of the PLA’s western theatre command. China’s foreign ministry said Indian troops had illegally crossed the LAC and were the first to fire shots. “This is a serious military provocation,” Zhao Lijian, a spokesman, told a daily news conference in Beijing today.

India has accused the Chinese of trying to gain territory around the huge glacial Pangong Lake through what it describes as “aggressive manoeuvres”. In retaliation, Indian soldiers have managed to take control of some strategic heights on the southern bank of the lake, according to Indian reports, apparently incensing the Chinese.....

A series of diplomatic and military talks have failed to defuse the crisis. A meeting between the two countries’ defence ministers in Moscow last Friday also yielded no progress. Both countries have repeatedly said they want a peaceful resolution, but military experts say the situation is deteriorating fast.

The war of words has seen no let-up. China says it holds India responsible for the dispute and that it is not far from being “annihilated”, according to an editorial in the party-run Global Times newspaper.

It went on to warn of “bloody rain and winds” on the border if India did not abide by a 1996 agreement not to use live fire in the region. “We must harshly warn the Indian side that you’ve overstepped. Your frontline troops have overstepped. Your nationalistic public opinion has overstepped. Your foreign policy on China has overstepped,” said the editorial.....

https://ca.investing.com/news/world-...t-unit-2243631

Tibetan soldier's death near tense India-China border sheds light on covert unit

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#65072bb621f3

Is China Deploying New Anti-Aircraft Missiles On India’s Border?



Using open-source satellite imagery, observers claim to have spotted two new surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites in the Chumbi valley of Tibet, on the border with the northeastern Indian state of Sikkim and the independent kingdom of Bhutan. A Chinese-held wedge that juts deep into Indian territory, the Chumbi valley is located in an area that was the site of border clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in 2017 and 2020.

The new missile sites are just 50 kilometers (31 miles) from where the border skirmishes occurred, according to photos posted on Twitter. The satellite photos show what appear to be two square-shaped installations surrounded by walls: each installation contains a circular position containing a single long cylinder that resembles a missile.


“As a part of the ongoing upgrades & expansion of air defense assets along its border with India, China has been developing two new air defense positions near its suspected early warning radar sites opposite Sikkim,” according to the caption on the Twitter satellite imagery graphic. “Noted roughly 50 kms from Naku La and Doka La passes, both surface to air missiles sites would close the existing air defense gap around the earlier clash zones. India has been noted running regular intelligence surveillance & reconnaissance missions in this sector during these standoffs fielding a variety of assets including the Boeing P-8 [patrol aircraft].


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Old 8th Sep 2020, 19:03
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Not the best way to make friends . Might actually encourage others to start building defences against the expanding resurgence of old empires and newer colonial ambitions in those regions.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 00:45
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Originally Posted by fitliker
Not the best way to make friends . Might actually encourage others to start building defences against the expanding resurgence of old empires and newer colonial ambitions in those regions.
The Xi policy appears to be designed to make it painfully costly to challenge Chinas dominance within its zone of influence. Those neighboring countries need to tread softly to avoid incurring Beijing's displeasure.
Some of them, such as Australia, are still in denial about their status, but short of a serious Australian nuclear program, no one else will be in doubt. India however is a different matter, so both parties are still careful.
Note that Xi can afford to be unpleasant, a multi hundred billion dollar annual trade surplus gives policy lots of leeway.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 01:29
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Some of them, such as Australia, are still in denial about their status,
Australia is very aware of its status in regards to China. The CCP are tightening the screws to get us to submit and grovel back to them but under the present government that won't happen. It might happen under a Labor government as they are addicted to CCP money and influence.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 02:01
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Originally Posted by etudiant
.........
.Some of them, such as Australia, are still in denial about their status, but short of a serious Australian nuclear program...,
Are suggesting China will invade Australia, or Nuke us, if we are too determined not to be subservient?
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 05:22
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Originally Posted by rjtjrt
Are suggesting China will invade Australia, or Nuke us, if we are too determined not to be subservient?
Take a look around - you have already been "invaded" they are just not wearing uniforms or driving tanks.

The creeping yellow peril of COVID19 is the tip of the spear that degrades the enemy without a shot being fired.

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Old 9th Sep 2020, 14:09
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Originally Posted by rjtjrt
Are suggesting China will invade Australia, or Nuke us, if we are too determined not to be subservient?
Why bother? China gets its way around the South China Sea and still has full access to Australian resources. Getting on China's sh*t list hurts Australia rather than China.

China is obviously super prickly about how it is reported and thanks to our expansive definition of forbidden thoughts now criminalized as 'hate speech', they have at least a solid legal angle in attempting to block reports they consider objectionable. I doubt many publishers will want to spend the money needed to litigate the issue, so once the furor dies down, expect less China critical reporting.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 16:52
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The Japanese response is interesting. They have quietly changed their peaceful and restrictive constitution . Had great success with their recent launch of a Mars Rocket . Increased their military budgets . All done without sounding like a scared yappy lap dog .
They are quietly polishing their blades .
The Japanese have been quietly getting ready .
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 17:48
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"They have quietly changed their peaceful and restrictive constitution "

I don't think they have - what they're done is to change definitions (eg "helicopter equipped destroyers") and skirt around the edges but a lot of Japanese are against remilitarisation
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 17:50
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"The creeping yellow peril of COVID19 is the tip of the spear that degrades the enemy without a shot being fired."

Is that why they tried it on themselves first Image??
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 18:42
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In a word - Yes, best get the mix right before going global

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Old 10th Sep 2020, 05:50
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Originally Posted by fitliker
The Japanese response is interesting. They have quietly changed their peaceful and restrictive constitution . Had great success with their recent launch of a Mars Rocket . Increased their military budgets . All done without sounding like a scared yappy lap dog .
They are quietly polishing their blades .
The Japanese have been quietly getting ready .
For a country historically adept with surprise attacks, they should consider being on the receiving end themselves. Their airbases I fly into are cluttered and unhardened. The PLA's extensive conventional missile arsenal isn't exclusively for Taiwan.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 07:10
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 08:07
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"The creeping yellow peril of COVID19 is the tip of the spear that degrades the enemy without a shot being fired."

Is that why they tried it on themselves first Image??
The ultimate deniability...

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Old 18th Sep 2020, 14:17
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https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1201310.shtml
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 22:02
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-in-himalayas

Villagers help Indian troops face Chinese forces in Himalayas
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Old 21st Sep 2020, 00:00
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-in-himalayas

Villagers help Indian troops face Chinese forces in Himalayas
What is doubtful is whether a few hundred villagers can lug enough supplies on foot to maintain a division size force.
I'd expect a pullback, before they have to ask the Chinese for help.
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Old 22nd Sep 2020, 09:02
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Increasing risk of (inadvertent) conflict? Article in The Times today.

We will retaliate against attack, Taiwan warns China

Taiwan has warned China that it will respond in kind if fired upon after Chinese fighter jets escalated operations around the island, flying repeatedly across the midpoint of the strait that separates it from the mainland.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has vowed to reunify it by force if necessary.

Tensions between the two have risen rapidly, particularly after David Hale, the US under-secretary of state, paid an official visit to Taipei last week as Washington pushed $7 billion of arms sales including cruise missiles, mines and drones to the island. After the forays by Chinese jets, Taiwan’s defence ministry said that it had clearly defined procedures to deal with the “high frequency of harassment and threats from the enemy’s warships and aircraft” and added that although its soldiers would not fire the first shot they were authorised to fire back if Chinese forces did so.

The defence ministry also sought to assure the public that it had the armaments to defend the island. “The military regularly replenishes its precision missiles in accordance to military restructuring plans,” it said. “The military’s stockpile of precision missiles is sufficient for defensive needs at the present stage.”

Taiwan said that Chinese aircraft, including twelve J-16 fighters, two J-10 fighters, two J-11 fighters and two H-6 bombers, had crossed the midline of the strait, unofficially regarded as a boundary, and entered Taiwan’s southwest air defence identification zone on Saturday. The island’s forces scrambled fighters and deployed an air defence missile system to monitor the activities, the ministry said.

In a tweet it added that it “strongly condemns and urges [China] to practise self-restraint and don’t be a troublemaker in the #indopacific region”.

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president, praised the “heroic performance” of the island’s air force pilots for intercepting the Chinese fighter jets. “I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the Republic of China, how could we let enemies strut around in our own airspace?” she said, using Taiwan’s formal name.

“I’m aware that facing the provocative behaviour of the communist planes that have encircled the island and damaged regional peace in recent days, your duty at the front line of the airspace in Penghu must be even heavier.”

Yesterday, China’s foreign ministry said that the midline of the Taiwan Strait did not exist, provoking condemnation from Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister. He said the line was an important “symbol” for avoiding military clashes.

“We demand the international community strongly condemns China’s words and actions and demand the Chinese government stops everything that it has been doing,” he added.

The Chinese air force released a propaganda video yesterday featuring its H-6 bomber launching an attack on an island base that strongly resembled US facilities in Diego Garcia and Guam, although it appeared to have borrowed clips from three Hollywood films, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, The Rock and The Hurt Locker.
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