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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 15th Sep 2021, 08:06
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See the PLA (N) has been poking around Alaska.............
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Old 20th Sep 2021, 12:51
  #1102 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...tary-expansion

Japan urges Europe to speak out against China’s military expansion

Japan has urged European countries to speak out against China’s aggression, warning that the international community must bolster deterrence efforts against Beijing’s military and territorial expansion amid a growing risk of a hot conflict.

In an interview with the Guardian, Japan’s defence minister, Nobuo Kishi, said China had become increasingly powerful politically, economically and militarily and was “attempting to use its power to unilaterally change the status quo in the East and South China Seas”, which are crucial to global shipping and include waters and islands claimed by several other nations.

Tokyo had “strong concerns in regards to the safety and security of not only our own country and the region but for the global community”, Kishi warned. “China is strengthening its military power both in terms of quantity and quality, and rapidly improving its operational capability,” he said.

Kishi’s comments are a strong signal of the rising international concern over China’s military ambitions in disputed regions like the South and East China Sea, the Indian border, and in particular Taiwan. His remarks were echoed by senior figures on the island, with Taiwan’s former head of navy and deputy defence minister also warning that more deterrence was needed.

With China ratcheting up military activity in the region, experts and global military figures have also warned that small confrontations or maritime accidents could quickly escalate into a full-blown conflict…..
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Old 23rd Sep 2021, 07:55
  #1103 (permalink)  
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Recalling how Bellingcat tracked the movement of Russian troops in Ukraine and elsewhere I have to wonder if the China could also activate GPS tracking and other apps remotely.

Lesson to learn, every Chinese gadget you carry could be or is a spy. Should the military be banned from using and/or carrying Chinese made phones and tablets in uniform and on deployment?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/l...ears-30vm86xnw

Lithuania tells civil servants to ditch Chinese phones over spyware fears

Lithuania has told its civil servants to jettison their Chinese-made smartphones after experts found they contained automatic censorship software and other security flaws.

One popular handset from Xiaomi, a Chinese firm that sells more of the devices in the European Union than any other manufacturer, was discovered to be capable of detecting and blanking out the terms “Free Tibet”, “democratic movement” and “Long live Taiwan’s independence”.

The phone also turned out to be sending information about its owners’ activities, including how long they spent using different apps, to a proprietary server in Singapore, beyond the reach of the EU’s strict data laws…..

The tiny Baltic state, with fewer than 3 million people, has taken a defiantly assertive stance against China in recent months.…

The smartphone study, published this week by the Lithuanian defence ministry’s cybersecurity centre, is likely to exacerbate the conflict.There are already security concerns over the involvement of Chinese telecommunications firms such as Huawei in building Europe’s next-generation 5G mobile phone networks.

Abukevicius, 40, said the report would probably prompt his government to ban other Chinese-made devices from its systems…..

The researchers analysed three bestselling devices from Xiaomi, Huawei and OnePlus, each of which has a substantial share of the EU’s smartphone sales.

They found a total of ten “instances of increased cybersecurity risk”. The Xiaomi Mi 10T phone had a built-in blacklist running to 449 Chinese phrases for political and religious groups and movements, ranging from “independence of [inner] Mongolia” to Voice of America, a US government broadcaster.

These terms could be automatically censored on messaging and web browsing apps, effectively blocking users from looking up sensitive subjects. The function had been switched off in the EU but could be reactivated remotely at any time, potentially “jeopardising free access to information and limiting its accessibility”, according to the report.

Abukevicius said the blacklist was updated every few days and was capable of being expanded to include words from western languages.

The report also said that Huawei’s mobile app store directed smartphone users to other platforms rife with fake apps that acted as a cover for viruses and spyware. No vulnerabilities were identified in the OnePlus phone…..
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Old 25th Sep 2021, 06:51
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1926471.html

In the eyes of Beijing, the Quad poses a more menacing threat than Aukus
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Old 25th Sep 2021, 07:58
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"Lesson to learn, every Chinese gadget you carry could be or is a spy"

probably subcontracted the work to the Israelis who seem to be able ot bug everyone anywhere
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Old 28th Sep 2021, 16:51
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Article plus photos in The Times this afternoon.
China unveils new drones in race for air superiority

CH-6 drone - It can fly for 20 hours at an altitude of 50,000 ft, menacing military targets across the Pacific with a barrage of missiles or snoop on American manoeuvres with the latest surveillance equipment.

With a speed of 450mph and a range of about 9,000 miles, China’s large CH-6 drone represents a new development in its drive to lead the world in production of unmanned vehicles to fight future air wars.

It was among a number of new technologies unveiled at China’s biggest air show, in the southern city of Zhuhai today.

The CH-6 drone, built by the China Academy of Aerospace Science, a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, was unveiled with the WZ-7 high-altitude drone, another unmanned plane, which China said was designed for “border reconnaissance and maritime patrol”.


Click the link for full article etc.




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Old 28th Sep 2021, 18:49
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
Air superiority?
Dunno. That thing looks neither particluarly stealth, fast nor maneuverable. If un- opposed would be a threat to a Surface vessel but for any Fighter Aircraft this would be turkey shoot.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 00:14
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Originally Posted by henra
Air superiority?
Dunno. That thing looks neither particluarly stealth, fast nor maneuverable. If un- opposed would be a threat to a Surface vessel but for any Fighter Aircraft this would be turkey shoot.
Don't pay any attention to the headline, it was chosen to attract clicks rather than to summarize the article, which is actually quite factual.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 00:28
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Originally Posted by fitliker
Over nine years in the making . When Bruce Lee said to fight like Water a term used by Jackie Chan as well . They may have been channeling the same forces that made the Grand Canyon .
The complete opposite of Blitztkreig , the water strategy may prove to be very effective . Who could have predicted a fleet of fishing vessels would be able to dominate the Oceans of the world and displace so many local fishermen ?
China has a very impressive military tradition,, unusual in that it explicitly harnesses civil economics as part of military strategy. By gradually becoming the workshop of the world, China is making itself invulnerable to foreign military strikes.
Bombing China is tantamount to bombing ones own supply line, rarely a sound strategy.. We can only hope they continue to accept our IOUs ten years from now.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 23:41
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I can't remember which German General made this statement but it applies in this circumstance: "Our tanks are worth ten of theirs..but they always have eleven" Yes the Russians had quantity but a lot of that quantity was supplied by the Americans especially trucks. It also included a significant amount of aluminum. The last time an Asian military dictatorship sought to build an empire in the Pacific they were comprehensively defeated by America's industrial output, a factor Yamamoto foreshadowed. AFAIK the CCP has the industry but they rely on externally sourced raw materials.
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Old 30th Sep 2021, 17:16
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The Communist Party Of China has an impossible problem. Their pact with Chinese citizens is a promise of steadily increasing individual wealth in return for unquestioning obedience to the Communist Party. The problem is that most of the low hanging economic fruit has already been picked. Maintaining the traditional 6 to 9 % annual economic growth is becoming increasing more difficult and has resulted in what is in effect state sanctioned ponzi schemes, particularly in the housing sector, like Evergrande. When these fail many individual Chinese are directly affected.

The result is an inevitable loss of trust in the government. This sentiment is the Communist Parties greatest nightmare. Unfortunately the standard reaction for a dictatorship that feels its power is slipping is to manufacture a foreign crises and then war to redirect the populations attention. For this reason I now thing an invasion of Taiwan is a given and the only question is when it will happen.
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Old 30th Sep 2021, 19:18
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And yet another new jet….

Looks like, as a carrier aircraft, it requires the use of a catapult and cable recovery. Production timeframe would seem t9 fit with being intended for use in CVA03 onwards…

https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...d-fighter-jet/

China preps rollout of a new carrier-based fighter jet
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Old 1st Oct 2021, 05:05
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There is a fundamental issue here though.
You're much less likely to innovate, take quantum leap risks and achieve the breakthroughs that put you ahead of your opponents when you run the risk of extreme sanctions and live under significant risk.
I am assuming even the most valued minds in the Chinese military industrial complex have to tread very, very carefully less they feel the wrath of Xi or the party.
Skunks and Phantoms and others don't face the same threats their peers do in the PRC.
A strategy based on IP theft and a culture of fear and suppression is inimical to innovation... and that's delaying them coming up the curve.
All of these new concepts appear pale imitations of western technology.
Chinese engines are ****e, platforms are not truly stealthy, carrier jets can't carry any meaningful payload - the list goes on.
They're very good at jamming from what I understand - and have formidable resources in that respect - enough to really concern the West (as opposed to what is said publicly).
But very little else.
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Old 1st Oct 2021, 21:44
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China realises its running out of time to achieve its ambitions. The half life of empires has been having for the last millennia - China’s could be over before it’s begun….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...hers-warn.html

China's population could HALVE within 45 years: Country's birth rate hits 1.3 and researchers say demographic decline has been severely underestimated
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Old 2nd Oct 2021, 08:02
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Its a point I've made a few times - the window for expansionism is closing fast as their population ages and the replacement ratio falls - they'll HAVE to spend more on care and health

The One Child policy is finally coming home to roost
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Old 2nd Oct 2021, 08:05
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Taiwan says record 38 Chinese planes entered defence zone
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Old 2nd Oct 2021, 08:11
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Originally Posted by ORAC
China's population could HALVE within 45 years: Country's birth rate hits 1.3 and researchers say demographic decline has been severely underestimated
Probably a bit exaggerated but this trend could be seen coming since a few years. Explosion of housing costs is a huge problem and a double one at that. It drives people to have fewer children and it creates an economic bubble without real value behind. Yet- in most countries high housing prices are considered desirable by the governments since it technically inflates econmic figures of a Country (and the esteemed and well connected elites are profiting the most). Another big problem seems to be high workload. Especially academic people are working their ar*e off. It is well known that people who are strained by their work are likely to have less/no children.
Funnily China is following very closely in the footsteps -the good and the bad- of Western societies while it always emphasizes its difference to them.
That said I would not expect China to collapse in the near future but they might be shaken more often by societal earthquakes in the upcoming decades. Evergrande could be a first prequake.
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Old 3rd Oct 2021, 07:42
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"Funnily China is following very closely in the footsteps -the good and the bad- of Western societies while it always emphasizes its difference to them"

because of course there is no other proven model that offers a cat in hells chance of achieving progress. The Chinese have to emphasise the differences because if they don't they think people will want ALL the aspects of the Western model - like a vote and a voice
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Old 4th Oct 2021, 17:23
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...wian-s66cgzw8l

Taipei Warns of War

China dispatched a record number of fighter jets and bombers to Taiwan today as days of sustained military harassment culminated in warnings of war from Taipei…..

The campaign of harassment comes as Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, warned of a possible war with the mainland. “The defence of Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that,” he told ABC’s China Tonight programme in Australia.

“If China is going to launch a war against Taiwan we will fight to the end, and that is our commitment,” he added. “I’m sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.”….
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Old 4th Oct 2021, 20:33
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I wonder the appetite in Taiwan for street to street fighting? Is a HK style of diminishing rights preferable to a mounting an insurgency?

Has the temperature been taken of the man in the street? Don’t leap for the keyboard Asturias, looking for local knowledge, if such exists.
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