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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 7th Jul 2021, 05:48
  #961 (permalink)  
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You, a child of that Western system, are apparently oblivious to its value.
As, it would seem, all our children….

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2021...onomic-system/

Majority of young Brits want a socialist economic system

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1874049.html

Support for socialism gaining traction in US, poll suggests
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Old 7th Jul 2021, 06:14
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Originally Posted by ORAC
As, it would seem, all our children….

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2021...onomic-system/

Majority of young Brits want a socialist economic system

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1874049.html

Support for socialism gaining traction in US, poll suggests
Socialism and democracy can coexist they are not mutually exclusive. Capitalism and communism already coexist. Marx grew the idea of the dictatorship of the masses from his observations of the failings of capitalism in a restricted democracy. His major mistake and that made by many today is to confuse political and economic theory.
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Old 7th Jul 2021, 07:19
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/j...y-pm-l7dnhdfn0

Japan pledges to defend Taiwan if China attacks, says deputy prime minister Taro Aso

Japan has said it would join America in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, treating any such attack as an “existential threat” that could lead to an assault on its own territory.

The statement by Taro Aso, the deputy prime minister, signals a shift in policy towards Beijing. “If a major problem occurred in Taiwan, it would not be going too far to say that it could be an existential threat [for Japan],” he said.

“In such a case, Japan and the United States will have to work together to defend Taiwan.” He added: “We need to consider seriously that [the southern islands of] Okinawa could be next.”

There was a swift and angry response from Beijing, which considers Taiwan its territory. Last week President Xi promised to complete “reunification” of the island.

Zhao Lijian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, denounced Aso’s remarks as “extremely wrong and dangerous” and said that a diplomatic protest had been made. He said that Japan had not learnt the lessons of history and its “countless crimes of aggression against China”.


Zhao added: “China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed to such remarks. Today’s China is not the China of the past. We will never allow any country to meddle with Taiwan affairs in any way. No one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and powerful ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty.”

After decades in which it avoided confronting Beijing, Japan’s conservative government is meeting Chinese assertiveness with an increasing outspokenness, and pushing the limits of the post-Second World War pacifist constitution. Aso is the latest leader to express concern about Chinese intentions in Taiwan and a determination to stand up to any attempt to “reunify” the island by force…..
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Old 7th Jul 2021, 07:33
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Originally Posted by ORAC

…..Majority of young Brits want a socialist economic system
Old adage. If you’re not a socialist when you’re 20, you have no heart.

If you’re still a socialist at 30, you have no brain.



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Old 7th Jul 2021, 10:58
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Some fail to grasp the evil of Communism it would appear.

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Old 7th Jul 2021, 14:35
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"You, a child of that Western system, are apparently oblivious to its value."

Wrong my friend, very, very wrong.

But I don't feel that we should wind the clock back 5 million years and start the evolutionary process over again.
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 07:56
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Originally Posted by ORAC
As, it would seem, all our children….

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2021...onomic-system/

Majority of young Brits want a socialist economic system

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1874049.html

Support for socialism gaining traction in US, poll suggests
Socialism and communism are two different things.
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 14:32
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A sage individual pointed me towards a Book written by two Chinese Military Officers that explained how China will fight the next "War" and defeat the United States.

While doing a bit of searching on the internet I ran across this material and see that is related to the Book.

There is some very interesting ideas in this.

The Author(s) suggest War is still with us as a tool in Diplomacy but the manner of fighting has been greatly affected by previous Wars and the high cost in Human lives.

https://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 14:55
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"Socialism and communism are two different things."

not if you are American.......................
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 15:36
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Does that make us wrong?
“We will not take America under the label of communism, we will not take it under the label of socialism. These labels are unpleasant to the American people, and have been speared too much. We will take the United States under labels we have made very lovable, we will take it under liberalism, under progressivism, under democracy. But take it, we will!”

-Alexander Trachtenberg, National Convention of Communist Parties, 1944

Look back to the Congressional Record....circa 1963 and compare this information to current events.

Perhaps we are skipping the "Socialism" part and arriving at the Communist destination?

Note we have General Milley and other very senior Generals embracing CRT which is unadulterated Marxism.

h

https://ia801201.us.archive.org/7/items/W.CLEONSKOUSENTheMythologySurroundingHisFBICareer46/Communist_Goals_-_1963_Congressional_Record-4.pdf

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Old 8th Jul 2021, 16:42
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Heading back to the South China Sea (article in The Times):-

China’s underwater robots can attack enemy vessels without human guidance

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China is developing underwater robots that can lurk in the sea and identify and attack enemy vessels without the guidance of human beings.

A newly published scientific paper describes tests in which an underwater drone was able to detect a dummy submarine and successfully strike it with a torpedo, relying on artificial intelligence rather than the instructions of an operator.

The experiments took place more than a decade ago in the strait dividing mainland China from the self-ruling island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own. They are being revealed at a time of anxiety about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, apparently to send a signal that any defence of the island by the United States and its allies would be fraught with risk.

The paper published last week describes work done in 2010 by researchers at Harbin Engineering University, China’s pre-eminent centre of submarine development. The unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) was programmed to patrol in a fixed course 30 feet beneath the surface.

When its sonar detected the dummy submarine it altered course and circled the target, using onboard sensors to gather readings, which were analysed by its computer. It fired and hit the dummy submarine with an unarmed torpedo.

“The needs of future underwater warfare bring new development opportunities for the unmanned platforms,” wrote the scientists, led by Professor Liang Guolong, quoted in the South China Morning Post. It can be assumed that in the 11 years since the research described, the capabilities of the UUV have advanced.

Liang wrote that although the underwater robots created by his team worked alone they could be developed to operate in packs. With the right combination of communication systems and artificial intelligence, they could make simultaneous attacks on a common target from different positions.

UUVs are used commercially for maritime surveys, including the mapping of the seabed. They were employed in the unsuccessful hunt for the wreckage of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

There are no known examples of them being used in combat, but several navies use underwater robots for tasks including surveillance, reconnaissance and mine-sweeping. The US navy is awaiting the delivery next year of four Orcas, giant 26m long and 50t UUVs, made by Boeing.

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Old 8th Jul 2021, 21:57
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
Heading back to the South China Sea (article in The Times):-

China’s underwater robots can attack enemy vessels without human guidance
​​​


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Sounds just like the US Navy Captor, a mine built using an encapsulated torpedo. Add a little processing power and swarm attacks are plausible. Only issue is the range of the torpedo, 10-20 miles is not enough other than for choke points.

Longer term, we should remember that the Chinese kicked the Dutch out of Taiwan in the 1600s, a period of relative Dutch military preeminence. Indeed, a Dutch fleet bombarded London in that era.
Yet the Dutch commander in Taiwan admitted that they were just outclassed by the Chinese, who were using tactics they had never seen before.
Right now China is rapidly widening its lead in the global production of unmanned vehicles and the relevant command and control systems. Their use of thousands of civilian drones to act as a free flying display for national celebrations is also a public indication of their control capabilities. Not an easy problem to solve for a defender and it will get worse. It may be that Taiwan will again be a place where China shows its military to be second to none.
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 23:06
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I think many of us are too gullible when it comes to the popular media line that China is growing inexorably ever stronger and will surpass and defeat the US.
Cai Xia's paper is interesting:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-...ve-11624969800
As background, read this:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...t-party-failed
I have been on a reading tear for the last six months - immersing myself in Soviet history.
Have read this:
https://www.amazon.com.au/Stalin-Par.../dp/0143127861
then this:
https://www.booktopia.com.au/stalin-...IaAp8aEALw_wcB
Then this:
https://www.amazon.com.au/Lenin-New-.../dp/1476764840
and have just finished this:
https://www.booktopia.com.au/khrushc...MaAsvYEALw_wcB
This is next when published:
https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/brezhnev-9780755642113/
Xi's parallels with Stalin are intriguing.
Ms Cai's insights on the fragility of the CCP are insightful.

I recommend that the US be fully prepared for the possible sudden disintegration of the CCP. The CCP appears to be powerful on the outside, but this refined neo-totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship is actually quite fragile inside. The CCP has the ambition of a hungry dragon but inside it is a paper tiger. There are many factors that may lead to unexpected changes in the situation and even possibly the collapse of the regime. They include the unsustainable economic model and high levels of debt; the inherent and insurmountable contradiction between exaggerated ideological propaganda and social reality; the incompatible dual-track ownership system between the market and the state; the increasing social disparity between rich and poor; continuing corruption; and the fierce infighting for succession to supreme power. Xi Jinping’s overly suspicious and narrow-minded personality has led to continuous purges inside the party, which have brought extreme dissatisfaction among the middle- and high-level officials of the CCP. Everyone feels unsafe.

All of these factors make it possible that any unexpected event may cause a chain reaction leading to huge changes in the situation and even the collapse of the regime. Recall that no one predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or other communist states in Eastern Europe—yet they occurred. A sudden and instant collapse triggered by random events will almost inevitably bring disorder and chaos within China, which will reverberate outside the country. Therefore, the US must have a clear-eyed understanding and prepare for unpredictable contingencies.

Last edited by tartare; 8th Jul 2021 at 23:34.
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 02:08
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The collapse of the Soviet Union was at least foreshadowed by Andrei Almarik's 'Will the Soviet Union survive till 1984?', written in 1970.
The possibility of a sudden implosion in China is clearly present. The huge focus on control of every relationship is a clear indication, the leaders fear social upheaval. The brutal reaction to the Covid outbreak underscored that.
In the initial stages, when the situation appeared most dicey, Xi disappeared from the front page of Xinhua, doubtless fearing to become a focus of popular outrage after the death of the doctor who had tried to sound the alarm.
However, the regime can claim to have lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of abject poverty, which is a huge achievement that helps stabilize the social compact.
That is a sharp contrast to the Russian experience during the latter Soviet period, stagnation at home and a pointless war abroad.
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Old 12th Jul 2021, 17:25
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Article in The Times this afternoon.

US vows to defend Philippines after Beijing ‘chases off’ warship

Snippet:-
The United States has warned that it will defend the Philippines against any attack by China, as Beijing boasted that it had chased away a US warship from islands that it claims in the South China Sea.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, gave the warning on the fifth anniversary of an international court ruling that dismissed Chinese claims to ownership of the South China Sea. It was issued as a naval destroyer, the USS Benfold, sailed close to the Paracel Islands in a symbolic rejection of Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over the area.

“The People’s Republic of China continues to coerce and intimidate southeast Asian coastal states, threatening freedom of navigation in this critical global throughway,” Blinken said. “We call on the PRC to abide by its obligations under international law, cease its provocative behaviour and take steps to reassure the international community that it is committed to the rules-based maritime order that respects the rights of all countries, big and small.”

He added: “We also reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defence commitments under . . . the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty.”
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 08:27
  #976 (permalink)  
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https://www.defensenews.com/smr/ener...limate-change/

Japan’s new defense whitepaper issues warnings over Taiwan’s security, climate change

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Old 17th Jul 2021, 12:17
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In The Times today.

America sends stealth fighters to China’s prized territory

The US is sending its largest-ever formation of stealth fighters to the Indo-Pacific region to demonstrate America’s ability to operate in China’s self-declared area of military domination.

Twenty-five of the US air force’s fifth-generation F-22A Raptor stealth fighters, as well as ten F-15E Strike Eagles, will take part in the Operation Pacific Iron exercise this month.

They will operate from a remote airstrip on the US island territory of Guam and from Tinian, one of the Northern Mariana islands from where the US launched the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Guam would be vulnerable to attack by China’s onshore ballistic missiles in the event of a conflict.
Prized territory? Journalistic hyperbole presumably.
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Old 17th Jul 2021, 19:08
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
In The Times today.

America sends stealth fighters to China’s prized territory



Prized territory? Journalistic hyperbole presumably.
Guam is about 2000 miles from China, so well beyond the 'optimistic' 1000 mile combat radius of the F-22.
Are we perhaps setting a marker that China will be allowed to control its airspace to 1000 miles out?
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Old 19th Jul 2021, 23:00
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I think the US is letting China know that the US is closer than it thinks and that its effective border is in the Western Pacific and not the Eastern Pacific.
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Old 20th Jul 2021, 21:54
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That part of the Pacific has many disputed islands....and Freedom of Navigation Ops is one way of reminding all those who offer claims to them that there are limits to what can be unilaterally proclaimed as Sovereign Territory by any of them.
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