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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 12th Apr 2021, 07:18
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"Think it must be done, else our children will be Chinese serfs, but kids don't vote."

At various times since 1850 different countries have been the worlds main exporter of goods - the UK 1850 -1890, Germany 1890-1910, USA 1910 -2010, China 2010 - none of them finished up "enslaving" the whole world

I'd put my money on India to replace China eventually and then Brazil & Nigeria beyond that
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 07:47
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And that's not even addressing the component parts issue.
remember that Container ship blocked in the Suez canal some time ago . it was only a 10 days delay in delivering essential parts for the car industry in Germany which was crying murder and threats of production stoppages that would take months to restore .
I am afraid China hold us by the balls and we more than willingly let them do it..

On thing I always remember when visiting for the first time the PRC in 1976 ,an organized few hours tour , 1h train ride from Hong Kong to a small poor village accross the border called Shenzen . When some of us made remarks about the overall poverty, the propaganda tour guide said something like : You westerners are always looking for a quick solution, quick wins, China can wait 1000 years. one day we will surpass you . . We keep forgetting that.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 12:23
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
You westerners are always looking for a quick solution, quick wins, China can wait 1000 years. one day we will surpass you . . We keep forgetting that.
It’s actually unusual that China isn’t far in front of the West. Historically, they have led the world in major military and intellectual advances. As I’m sure they see it, they are simply re asserting their previous dominance.

If the world has changed enough, the West (as it did in 1939) will stand up for itself and say ‘enough’. If not, we need acquiesce and accept our position subordinate to China before too much damage is done. Are we woke or are we not?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 12:42
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"If the world has changed enough, the West (as it did in 1939) will stand up for itself "

That's a view often put forward here but of course its based on a historical inaccuracy. The "West" didn't step up against Hitler in 1939 - only the Poles, the British & French and their respective Empires did and they were only fighting the Germans (and Austrians). Most other European countries, but not all (no Ireland, Switz, Sweden, Spain or Portugal), were eventually dragged in from 1940-41. The US didn't come in for over 2 years and various other countries came in even later - the Russians finally joining the war against Japan a week or so before the end. If Hitler hadn't kept invading everyone in sight it would have remained a restricted war, probably with restricted results. Same with the Japanese - if they'd stayed in China or even only invaded the Russian Far East would the USA have come in?

Western countries only "stood up" when there was literally no alternative or when they were actually invaded. I suspect the same will happen with China
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 16:01
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https://www.defensenews.com/training...china-in-2030/

A US Air Force war game shows what the service needs to hold off — or win against — China in 2030

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force repelled a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during a massive war game last fall by relying on drones acting as a sensing grid, an advanced sixth-generation fighter jet able to penetrate the most contested environments, cargo planes dropping pallets of guided munitions and other novel technologies yet unseen on the modern battlefield.....

Furthermore, the air force that fought in the simulated conflict isn’t one that exists today, nor is it one the service is seemingly on a path to realize. While legacy planes like the B-52 bomber and newer ones like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter played a role, many key technologies featured during the exercise are not in production or even planned for development by the service.

Still, the outcome was a marked improvement to similar war games held over the last two years, which ended in catastrophic losses. The Air Force’s performance this fall offers a clearer vision of what mix of aircraft, drones, networks and other weapons systems it will need in the next decade if it hopes to beat China in a potential war. Some of those items could influence fiscal 2023 budget deliberations......

In the war game, four types of aircraft made up the Air Force’s future fighter inventory. Three of those are ongoing programs of record for the service:Finally, the service operated a non-stealthy, light, tactical fighter for homeland and base defense, which could also be flown in support of counterterrorism missions. That aircraft, which aligns with Brown’s idea for a “fourth-generation plus” replacement for the F-16, doesn’t currently exist in the service’s budget plans.

For years, Air Force officials have portrayed the F-35 as the aircraft that it would use to infiltrate into enemy airspace to knock out surface-to-air missiles and other threats without being seen. However, in the war game, that role was played by the more survivable NGAD, in part due to the F-35′s inability to traverse the long ranges of the Pacific without a tanker nearby, Hinote said.

Instead, the F-35 attacked Chinese surface ships and ground targets, protected American and Taiwanese assets from Chinese aircraft, and provided cruise missile defense during the exercise. But “it’s not the one that’s pushing all the way in [Chinese airspace], or even over China’s territory,” Hinote said.

Notably, the F-35s used during the war game were the more advanced F-35 Block 4 aircraft under development, which will feature a suite of new computing equipment known as “Tech Refresh 3,” enhancements to its radar and electronic warfare systems, and new weapons. “We wouldn’t even play the current version of the F-35,” Hinote said. “It wouldn’t be worth it.......

The service plans to take its findings to Capitol Hill in the hopes of gaining the support of lawmakers for the difficult force posture decisions coming down the line in upcoming budget discussions. Brown, the Air Force’s top general, has indicated that programs could be canceled and legacy aircraft retired as the service seeks to revolutionize its technology.

But as Mackenzie Eaglen, a defense budget expert with the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in a March report, Congress has repeatedly rolled back the service’s plans to cut its existing force structure.

“This leaves the Air Force trapped in a near-term Catch-22,” she stated. “On one hand, it is trying to divest itself of decades-old legacy airframes, which drive up [operations and maintenance] costs every year, so that it can reinvest in next-generation platforms.

On the other hand, its replacement aircraft programs will not be operational fast enough to meet the ongoing demands of global operations, even if the net savings from legacy divestments are sufficient to fund new platforms.”.....

Last edited by ORAC; 12th Apr 2021 at 19:01.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 18:36
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The game assumes the impossible in terms of USAF procurement to achieve a hard fought victory.
Given production trends in the US and China, the prospects grow steadily worse in future iterations.
So the logical conclusion is to encourage Taiwanese citizens to emigrate to California, as we don't really care about Taiwan, but we (and Apple and AMD and Nvidia and Qualcomp) do care about their semiconductors.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 19:05
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Etudiant,

You are going to have to fight them eventually - and I am reminded of a comment from Charles DeGaulle reference the British, that the thing he admired most about them was they always had the sense to fight their wars in someone else’s country....
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 20:02
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Etudiant,

You are going to have to fight them eventually - and I am reminded of a comment from Charles DeGaulle reference the British, that the thing he admired most about them was they always had the sense to fight their wars in someone else’s country....
Actually, I think the fight option is pretty much gone.
When 90% of your advanced semiconductors come from Chinese(Taiwan) factories, you'd be silly to wage war on them.
We still could take the pain of closing our market to them, that worked poorly for Spain in the 17th and 18th centuries, it funded a smuggler subculture immortalized by Bizet's Carmen.
I'd love to see clever solutions, but right now, just stopping the land grab in the South China Seas would be a start, imho.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 22:16
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I think that it is important to recognize that the US military industrial complex is built to incentivize the use of expensive technologies to solve battle problems. I would also suggest that the system assigns unrealistic abilities to their adversaries.

I think the latter is especially true for China. It has certainly increased the number of platforms in the air and sea environment, but has yet to demonstrate the capability to manage joint effects in a complex battle space.

A war over Taiwan is a distraction from the the larger issue of managing Chinese aggression in all sphere’s, cyber, diplomatic, economic, monetary, cultural, International aid, environmental degradation, and many other touch points.

Iraq is the poster child for the most effective use of military force to a achieve a political objective, regime change, in the history of warfare. The mess after “Mission Accomplished” is the poster child for failure on every other non military foreign engagement metric.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 22:25
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raq is the poster child for the most effective use of military force to a achieve a political objective, regime change, in the history of warfare. The mess after “Mission Accomplished” is the poster child for failure on every other non military foreign engagement metric
Once the professionals had done their job and the politicians took over.

Taiwan is indeed a stepping stone - China has time on its side (literally all the time in the world) will not let it go and only has to be lucky once.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 01:59
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25 jets into the Taiwan ADZ.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ter-us-warning
Another slice of the salami...
Based on that very insightful US navy report a while back - one gets the impression the PLA navy would get slaughtered by Uncle Sam if they tried to invade, and the air force would be a turkey shoot.
The report said their amphibious capability is still weak.
But what the Chinese could do very effectively is rain all kinds of missile hell down on Taiwan.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 02:31
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China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It just needs to do enough to shut Taiwan down, close it off and push the right internal buttons to effect the regime change it wants. An added bonus is that it (primarily) makes the US feel pain.

We already have some quite serious semi-conductor production issues and people seem to prefer talking about the issues rather than trying to solve them.

The only way to win this one is to be more self sufficient.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 07:14
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"You are going to have to fight them eventually - "

ORAC - that tends to be a self fulling prophecy - not all big Power confrontations end in war - the west never went to war with the USSR did they?
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 08:50
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The only way to win this one is to be more self sufficient.
which is probably what the global warning and Covid-crisis is about to bring us , one of the few positive effects of these crises: Short delivery circuits
Investment money is being poured into such projects at the moment, . In Netherlands a huge semi conductor plant is being boosted and I am sure there are similar initiatives in other countries.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 08:57
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the west never went to war with the USSR did they?
They certainly did - only using their most effective weapons available at the time, economic and productive. They forced the USSR into an arms race they couldn't afford and, through use of the international economic organisations thread helped found (the World Bank, IMF, WTO etc) they bankrupted them....

They don't have the first two advantages any more - and the Chinese saw what happened and either joined the latter or set up their own....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_...nvestment_Bank

Last edited by ORAC; 13th Apr 2021 at 17:21. Reason: Sp
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 11:11
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Tentacles......

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-m...-highway-loan/

EU rebuffs Montenegro plea to help repay $1B Chinese highway loan

Brussels on Monday rejected a call by Montenegro's government to help finance a $1 billion Chinese loan for an unfinished highway project that has plunged the EU accession candidate into a debt crisis.

Senior government officials have urged the EU in recent weeks to help Montenegro repay the loan, which amounts to one-quarter of the country's overall debt, and has shone a spotlight on China's influence in the Western Balkans.

But the European Commission said it was not going to comply with that request: "The EU is already the largest provider of financial assistance to Montenegro, the largest investor and the largest trade partner," EU foreign policy spokesperson Peter Stano said at a regular press briefing. “We continue to stand by them, but we are not repaying the loans they are taking from third parties.”

The EU’s decision risks opening the door for China’s state-run lender, the Export-Import Bank of China, to control assets owned by Montenegro.

Critics say that Montenegro's previous government made a poor decision in 2014 when it — against EU advice — accepted the Chinese loan, which covers 85 percent of the cost for a controversial highway project that has yet to be completed.

Other countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Djibouti accepted attractive loan offers under China's Belt and Road Initiative and now find themselves under financial pressure to repay them, which risks exposing them to Chinese influence.

“The EU has concerns over the socioeconomic and financial effects of some of China’s investments, or the debt that some of China’s investments can have in the country," Stano said. "Because there is the risk of macroeconomic imbalances and debt dependency.”

A spokesperson for Montenegro Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapić had no immediate comment on the Commission's reaction.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 14:30
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“The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.”
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 09:40
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Only very blurred photos - presumably deliberately....

China unveils another stealthy UCAV ? Alert 5

China unveils another stealthy UCAV

China’s 中天飞龙(西安)智能科技有限公司 announced this morning that its 飞龙-2 (Flying Dragon -2) stealth unmanned combat air vehicle prototype has rolled off the production line.

The company says the aircraft can carry different types of precision guided munitions for use against command centers, early warning radars, air defense systems, air bases, troop concentrations and aircraft carriers.

There was also a 飞龙-2 mockup unveiled during the Zhuhai airshow in 2018. At that time, the mockup had a pair of canted vertical fins. The new 飞龙-2 is a pure flying wing design.





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Old 20th Apr 2021, 11:21
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The Chines have been cracking down on folk posting things about their military programs on Social media

Apparently some of the latest published info on their carrier program comes from spotters who visit the big windows in a local IKEA that overlooks the shipyard and then post on SM.
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Old 27th Apr 2021, 14:44
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Article in The Times.
Chinese spy planes try to fly under Taiwan’s radar

A Chinese spy plane attempted to fly underneath Taiwan’s radar detection as it gathered intelligence and tested the island’s air defences.

The Y-8 tactical reconnaissance aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flew 30 metres above sea level off Taiwan yesterday as part of China’s growing military manoeuvres around the self-governing island.

Chinese aircraft have made almost daily incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone since September. This was the lowest flight so far in an area that acts as a buffer between international airspace and a nation’s territorial airspace.

Lin Yin-yu, a professor at the Institute of Strategic and International Affairs at National Chung Cheng University in southern Taiwan, told the South China Morning Post that the low-altitude flight served to test the Taiwanese military’s radar response capability.

“By flying at an altitude of 30 metres, the PLA plane was testing if it could fly beneath the radio wave coverage area,” Lin said.

In Taiwan, however, the defence ministry said that it responded to the incursion by scrambling civil air patrol aircraft, issuing radio warnings and deploying the air defence missile system to monitor the spy plane.

Tensions over the Taiwan Strait have escalated sharply over recent months. Beijing has vowed to unify with what it considers a runaway province. Washington, which has a security pact with Taiwan to supply sufficient hardware and technology to fend off any mainland invasions, has pledged its support.

Last week China made a rare public display of its naval powers by commissioning three advanced warships, including its first amphibious attack ship, on the same day. Chinese military experts claimed that the ships would play “important roles in solving questions in places like the island of Taiwan and the South China Sea”.

Chang Yen-ting, a former Taiwanese air force vice-commander, told the South China Morning Post that flying so close to the surface tested a pilot’s skill because there was a risk that optical illusions would cause them to misjudge the plane’s height.


“This is why most of these flights are conducted in the daytime,” he said, noting that the clear sky and the good visibility in the morning allowed the spy plane to fly at such a low altitude over sea.

Experts believe that the Chinese military are frequently sending their planes near Taiwan not only to train pilots but also to collect intelligence on the island and the US military deployment in the region. The missions also serve to keep pressure on the island and wear down the Taiwanese air force.

Meanwhile, Beijing chided Canberra after Peter Dutton, the Australian defence minister, said that conflict with China over Taiwan should not be discounted.

Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said that it was important that Australia was “prudent in its words and deeds” and acted to enhance “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”.


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