The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Chinese conscripts
The impression of the competence of 'the average Chinese conscript' could perhaps be a little outdated.
Conscription still exists, but for two years instead of four.
Recruitment teams now scour high schools colleges and universities to enlist those they feel would benefit the military.
They do the same in defence and scientific industries to 'borrow' key workers, these are the conscripts of today.
The old Soviet era equipment could be managed by a team including the average conscript, but not the modern technologically advanced equipment in service.
Make no mistake these young military personnel receive the training they need, they exercise in rigorous realistic risky exercise scenarios.
They and their leaders are of course not combat tested, that does not make them any less determined.
Conscription still exists, but for two years instead of four.
Recruitment teams now scour high schools colleges and universities to enlist those they feel would benefit the military.
They do the same in defence and scientific industries to 'borrow' key workers, these are the conscripts of today.
The old Soviet era equipment could be managed by a team including the average conscript, but not the modern technologically advanced equipment in service.
Make no mistake these young military personnel receive the training they need, they exercise in rigorous realistic risky exercise scenarios.
They and their leaders are of course not combat tested, that does not make them any less determined.
The impression of the competence of 'the average Chinese conscript' could perhaps be a little outdated.
Conscription still exists, but for two years instead of four.
Recruitment teams now scour high schools colleges and universities to enlist those they feel would benefit the military.
They do the same in defence and scientific industries to 'borrow' key workers, these are the conscripts of today.
The old Soviet era equipment could be managed by a team including the average conscript, but not the modern technologically advanced equipment in service.
Make no mistake these young military personnel receive the training they need, they exercise in rigorous realistic risky exercise scenarios.
They and their leaders are of course not combat tested, that does not make them any less determined.
Conscription still exists, but for two years instead of four.
Recruitment teams now scour high schools colleges and universities to enlist those they feel would benefit the military.
They do the same in defence and scientific industries to 'borrow' key workers, these are the conscripts of today.
The old Soviet era equipment could be managed by a team including the average conscript, but not the modern technologically advanced equipment in service.
Make no mistake these young military personnel receive the training they need, they exercise in rigorous realistic risky exercise scenarios.
They and their leaders are of course not combat tested, that does not make them any less determined.
The Economist point that no-one has made a opposed landing since Korea is a good one - the nearest thing would be the Falklands where the opposition turned up a few critical hours later and nearly wrecked the party even so.
When you think of the planning that went into D-Day for example... and that was the accumulation of 2 years smaller invasions - some of which went well (Sicily, Algeria) and those that didn't (Dieppe, Salerno). The PLA would be really pushing their luck to try a one-off invasion without a "practice" first to test kit, people and doctrine.
Perhaps once they start gobbling up the small Taiwanese held islands close to the mainland will be the time to start to worry about a cross- straight operation
When you think of the planning that went into D-Day for example... and that was the accumulation of 2 years smaller invasions - some of which went well (Sicily, Algeria) and those that didn't (Dieppe, Salerno). The PLA would be really pushing their luck to try a one-off invasion without a "practice" first to test kit, people and doctrine.
Perhaps once they start gobbling up the small Taiwanese held islands close to the mainland will be the time to start to worry about a cross- straight operation
More available evidence.
U.S. Navy Capt. Dale Rielage writes in ‘The National Interest’ (5th March 2020)
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...nce-sea-129197
“…the Chinese navy is making its exercises risky — more so than many navies. Communist Party apparatchiks, who have outsized influence over military training, will even reward commanders for breaking the rules if it means winning.
“For example, a North Sea Fleet minesweeping unit was cited for exercising setting and sweeping live mines, accepting increased risk for added realism. In some cases, these commanders are praised for violating the parameters of an exercise to seize victory.”
Also please see.
file:///F:/01%20-%20Ships/08a.%20Chi...ens_201408.pdf
These people explain far more eloquently than I just how improved the training of their personnel has come in recent years.
file:///F:/01%20-%20Ships/08a.%20Chi...son_201707.pdf
This is also worth a read to gain an insight into what China will be capable of.
Links don't work but it looks like you can find them here:-
https://usnwc.edu/Publications/Reports-and-Studies
https://usnwc.edu/Publications/Reports-and-Studies
Never underestimate an opponent . A scared conscript can be a squirrelly hard to hit target .
The calm professional is often predictable , you can wait for them at the latrine
The calm professional is often predictable , you can wait for them at the latrine
Or the mess tent.......
The Proceedings article is a pretty good summary. Before I retired I had a subscription to the magazine. There were many thoughtful articles and an editorial policy tacitly encouraged from senior USN leadership, to question orthodoxy, criticize policy, and advocate out of the box ideas.
I am absolutely certain that the Chinese Navy has no equivalent publication, and never will. This speaks to the profound cultural imperatives of the Chinese Military which will always prioritize fealty to the party over military competence and will never allow criticism of senior Naval Leadership or any significant Naval policy
That being said the Chinese Navy definitely has capabilities that did not exist 10 years ago or even 3 years ago. The challenge is to dispassionately recognize the strengths and and the limitations of their Navy, and more importantly think about what are the realistic scenarios for Naval Force Projection as part of the larger Chinese foreign policy construct
I am absolutely certain that the Chinese Navy has no equivalent publication, and never will. This speaks to the profound cultural imperatives of the Chinese Military which will always prioritize fealty to the party over military competence and will never allow criticism of senior Naval Leadership or any significant Naval policy
That being said the Chinese Navy definitely has capabilities that did not exist 10 years ago or even 3 years ago. The challenge is to dispassionately recognize the strengths and and the limitations of their Navy, and more importantly think about what are the realistic scenarios for Naval Force Projection as part of the larger Chinese foreign policy construct
Very interesting reading.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cg...cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:
The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.
I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cg...cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:
The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.
I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.
The Economist made the same point - especially about aircraft - although the PLAAF is very much larger than the TAF there are only a limited number of fields opposite Taiwan and they would be limited as to how much of the PLAAF they could deploy in the case of an invasion.
Again, if they start building more airfields you get a substantial warning period
Again, if they start building more airfields you get a substantial warning period
Article & photos in The Times today re a practice landing.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...0f729326a0d348
(Sent from my iPad hence clumsy format)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...0f729326a0d348
(Sent from my iPad hence clumsy format)
The mess tent where the most lethal warriors are to be found . Those men with the highest kill rate in any War . The Catering Corps
Apologies to my dear old departed Uncle who was a cook and never hurt anyone in anger until he got stuck in Burma .
Apologies to my dear old departed Uncle who was a cook and never hurt anyone in anger until he got stuck in Burma .
Article/photo/video on Flight Global:-
Chinese H-6N appears with mysterious ballistic missile
Click link for full article.
Chinese H-6N appears with mysterious ballistic missile
A brief video has emerged of a Xian H-6N bomber carrying what could be a ballistic missile or boost-glide vehicle along its centreline.
The video appeared on the Chinese internet on 17 October. It goes some way to confirming a long-held theory that one mission for the H-6N, the most advanced variant of the H-6 family, is lofting ballistic missiles.
The video appeared on the Chinese internet on 17 October. It goes some way to confirming a long-held theory that one mission for the H-6N, the most advanced variant of the H-6 family, is lofting ballistic missiles.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
CH-AS-X-13, been known about for a couple of years. Grainy images from video not required.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...rsonic-weapon/
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/w...a/ch-as-13.htm
https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...rsonic-weapon/
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/w...a/ch-as-13.htm
Very interesting reading.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cg...cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:
The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.
I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cg...cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:
The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.
I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.
Bearing in mind UK took a while to get the task force on its way with all supplies and this was a competent, capable, well trained force then Argentina would have taken weeks longer.
It is not the noise to look for but the quiet and changes to habits as people really are creatures of habit.
In The Times today:-
Taiwan denies arms race with China after sealing US missile deal
Article intro:-
Taiwan denies arms race with China after sealing US missile deal
Article intro:-
Taiwan has insisted that it is not provoking an arms race with China after sealing a $1.8 billion missile deal with the US.
The island nation said that the package, which includes 135 precision land attack missiles manufactured by Boeing, 11 lorry-based rocket launchers with a striking range of more than 270 km and associated equipment and training, would enable it to modernise its defence capacity.
The island nation said that the package, which includes 135 precision land attack missiles manufactured by Boeing, 11 lorry-based rocket launchers with a striking range of more than 270 km and associated equipment and training, would enable it to modernise its defence capacity.
It seems touchingly naive for the US to provide Taiwan with every technology available, including of course the most advanced semiconductor facilities in the world.
Taiwan is run by pragmatic people, once China makes them a sufficiently attractive offer, they will return to the motherland, taking their capabilities with them.
Taiwan is run by pragmatic people, once China makes them a sufficiently attractive offer, they will return to the motherland, taking their capabilities with them.
ermmm - think you'll find the technology to produce modern semiconductors has largely been developed in Taiwan............