The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
The Chinese air force released a propaganda video yesterday featuring its H-6 bomber launching an attack on an island base that strongly resembled US facilities in Diego Garcia and Guam, although it appeared to have borrowed clips from three Hollywood films, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, The Rock and The Hurt Locker.
Edited to add: Found it on the Telegraph website. Its a bit lame TBH.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,819
Received 2,798 Likes
on
1,192 Posts
Meanwhile in a story similar to the Iranian carrier target, the USA has built itself a North Korean Sub to practice sinking.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ean-midget-sub
What was really worrying was the US drew up plans to drop 80 nukes on North Korea..
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...on-north-korea
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ean-midget-sub
What was really worrying was the US drew up plans to drop 80 nukes on North Korea..
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...on-north-korea
China prepares to fly fighter jets over Taiwan
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgdhp
China seems set to overfly Taiwan with fighter jets. Such an operation would be designed to warn the U.S. against increasing its support for Taiwan. And second, to test whether President Tsai Ing-wen is willing to fire on Chinese aircraft.
The latest warning of an impending overflight came on Thursday in the Global Times newspaper. The primary mouthpiece of Beijing's Communist Party messaging to the west, the paper warned that the "Deployment of US forces to Taiwan means war." This refers to recent U.S. Military journal articles hypothesizing how best the Pentagon could help Taiwan defeat a Chinese invasion in any conflict. Apparently sensing that the Trump administration may soon send a more senior diplomat to visit the island, the editorial added that "It is not known how the US and Taiwan will make further provocations, but the response of the mainland is certain. If the U.S. and Taiwan raise the level of officials for engagement, the mainland will firmly respond by sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan to claim sovereignty."The editorial also pointed out that the PLA Air Force has already moved towards intruding over Taiwan's airspace. "PLA fighter jets recently crossed the so-called middle line of the Taiwan Straits on a large scale," it noted, "clearly drawing the red line that the US and Taiwan must not further collude. The Global Times has understood that PLA fighter jets were as closest as only seconds away from the coast of Taiwan. They were only one step away from flying over the island of Taiwan."
These threats should not be taken lightly.
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province which must, for reasons of Communist Party credibility and national honor, be brought back to the motherland. If Beijing believes that Taiwan is splitting too far from its grasp, it will use force in an effort to compel the island nation's subjugation. But if China does indeed overfly Taiwan with fighter jets, the Taiwanese government will face a moment of great consequence. To allow those fighters to pass over its territory unchallenged would be a humiliating and dangerous show of timidity. Of course, to shoot down any fighters would risk Beijing's immediate escalation to conflict. Here we see an ultimate Catch-22.
Still, Xi Jinping also faces great risks. While his recapture of Taiwan would consolidate his legacy desire to become the next Mao Zedong master of Chinese destiny, defeat would risk the Communist Party's mainland survival. It is in America's interest to reinforce Xi's perception of the latter risk, while mitigating his desire to carry forward an invasion.
Put simply, for China, Taiwan, and the U.S., tensions and the reciprocal stakes are growing very quickly.
China seems set to overfly Taiwan with fighter jets. Such an operation would be designed to warn the U.S. against increasing its support for Taiwan. And second, to test whether President Tsai Ing-wen is willing to fire on Chinese aircraft.
The latest warning of an impending overflight came on Thursday in the Global Times newspaper. The primary mouthpiece of Beijing's Communist Party messaging to the west, the paper warned that the "Deployment of US forces to Taiwan means war." This refers to recent U.S. Military journal articles hypothesizing how best the Pentagon could help Taiwan defeat a Chinese invasion in any conflict. Apparently sensing that the Trump administration may soon send a more senior diplomat to visit the island, the editorial added that "It is not known how the US and Taiwan will make further provocations, but the response of the mainland is certain. If the U.S. and Taiwan raise the level of officials for engagement, the mainland will firmly respond by sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan to claim sovereignty."The editorial also pointed out that the PLA Air Force has already moved towards intruding over Taiwan's airspace. "PLA fighter jets recently crossed the so-called middle line of the Taiwan Straits on a large scale," it noted, "clearly drawing the red line that the US and Taiwan must not further collude. The Global Times has understood that PLA fighter jets were as closest as only seconds away from the coast of Taiwan. They were only one step away from flying over the island of Taiwan."
These threats should not be taken lightly.
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province which must, for reasons of Communist Party credibility and national honor, be brought back to the motherland. If Beijing believes that Taiwan is splitting too far from its grasp, it will use force in an effort to compel the island nation's subjugation. But if China does indeed overfly Taiwan with fighter jets, the Taiwanese government will face a moment of great consequence. To allow those fighters to pass over its territory unchallenged would be a humiliating and dangerous show of timidity. Of course, to shoot down any fighters would risk Beijing's immediate escalation to conflict. Here we see an ultimate Catch-22.
Still, Xi Jinping also faces great risks. While his recapture of Taiwan would consolidate his legacy desire to become the next Mao Zedong master of Chinese destiny, defeat would risk the Communist Party's mainland survival. It is in America's interest to reinforce Xi's perception of the latter risk, while mitigating his desire to carry forward an invasion.
Put simply, for China, Taiwan, and the U.S., tensions and the reciprocal stakes are growing very quickly.
Some invasion might end east west trade as we know it.
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Cambridge
Posts: 47
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
For about a month. Maybe.
More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.
How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.
More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.
How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.
China needs trade income as well. And China needs global supply lines to feed it's economy.
For about a month. Maybe.
More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.
How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.
More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.
How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.
Is China going to take out Korea as well in your scenario?
Separately, semiconductor production facilities do not tolerate disruptions very well, just a simple power failure can knock out a couple of months of production. Physical damage translates to several times that.
So a Chinese invasion would kill those operations for quite a while.
Extrapolating out a couple of chess piece moves....
I’m no expert (something seldom said in the internet age) but those who profess to be say China isn’t yet prepared for a war that has them decisively winning due to a lack of sea lift. The Chinese can’t win on AirPower alone, they need boots on the island but don’t have the capability needed in contested waters.
So China sends a few planes over Taiwan, Taipei responds by sending a few planes over the mainland, shooting starts and the quick decisive battle needed to keep the US at bay melts away. The Chinese don’t like to lose face, short of a quick battle, there’s a good chance they would. Bring the USN in, sink one of their carriers and it’s a war no one wants, even if it’s conventional only.
I’m no expert (something seldom said in the internet age) but those who profess to be say China isn’t yet prepared for a war that has them decisively winning due to a lack of sea lift. The Chinese can’t win on AirPower alone, they need boots on the island but don’t have the capability needed in contested waters.
So China sends a few planes over Taiwan, Taipei responds by sending a few planes over the mainland, shooting starts and the quick decisive battle needed to keep the US at bay melts away. The Chinese don’t like to lose face, short of a quick battle, there’s a good chance they would. Bring the USN in, sink one of their carriers and it’s a war no one wants, even if it’s conventional only.
For about a month. Maybe.
More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.
How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.
More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.
How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.
Sound like 1935-40?
It may have already been stated but China does not care. It does not care if it’s economics’ goes backwards and 100 mill plus die of starvation. It does not care that for the next 12 months or 12 years it goes backwards. They do not think about tomorrow as western worlds do, worry about staying in power and pacifying it citizens. They think about 10 or 50 or 100 years down track. It is just mammoth and happy to move at a glacial pace if needed.
It may have already been stated but China does not care. It does not care if it’s economics’ goes backwards and 100 mill plus die of starvation. It does not care that for the next 12 months or 12 years it goes backwards. They do not think about tomorrow as western worlds do, worry about staying in power and pacifying it citizens. They think about 10 or 50 or 100 years down track. It is just mammoth and happy to move at a glacial pace if needed.
Way too many negatives for China.
It may have already been stated but China does not care. It does not care if it’s economics’ goes backwards and 100 mill plus die of starvation. It does not care that for the next 12 months or 12 years it goes backwards. They do not think about tomorrow as western worlds do, worry about staying in power and pacifying it citizens. They think about 10 or 50 or 100 years down track. It is just mammoth and happy to move at a glacial pace if needed.
While I think it’s true that the Chinese have a longer-term approach (relative to western democracies), I think we do tend to overate the whole ‘ancient Chinese wisdom’ thing.
I have read somewhere on these boards and after reviewing articles about current Chinese political thinking, the expectation is that the current form of government will not survive the next 3-4 years.
Too many influential people have subscribed to capitalist vested interests and they will not allow political posturing to damage their quality of life.
Not "whether but when" is my opinion.
IG
Too many influential people have subscribed to capitalist vested interests and they will not allow political posturing to damage their quality of life.
Not "whether but when" is my opinion.
IG
I'm sure Russia would be more than happy to oblige. There's no question whose side they would chose in a conflict.
Russia and China are epic rivals. Let's be clear about this.
Taiwan has only been a part of China for 216 of the 3,000 years of Chinese history. The Ming Chinese didn't annex it until after the Dutch had opened up the Island. They then lost it to the Japanese in 1895.
Two atom bombs restored it to China only for it to be used as a refuge for the defeated Chinese Nationalists.
Nobody in Taiwan under seventy years has an historical link to mainland China so it Beijing takes over it is going to be a whole load of trouble.
Two atom bombs restored it to China only for it to be used as a refuge for the defeated Chinese Nationalists.
Nobody in Taiwan under seventy years has an historical link to mainland China so it Beijing takes over it is going to be a whole load of trouble.
It would potentially end up in an uncomfortable enemy of my enemy etc...thing between US organised forces and Russia, against China.
I don’t know if one nation alone could fill the void of an embargo against China.