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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 28th Apr 2022, 04:32
  #1261 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Somehow I just do not see a Second Campaign to fight over an unwanted Airbase on Guadalcanal.

It was a close run thing the first time against a much less capable Military.
Slightly more urgent view down here than `stateside.
Nowhere near as close as Cuba is to Key West.
But close enough to cause a major diversion of resources for the ADF if PLAN ships and PLAAF aircraft could base there and project power into the Coral Sea and points north.
Just keeping an eye on what they are doing could become very taxing.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 07:15
  #1262 (permalink)  
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Japanís ruling party is proposing to double the defence budget to £86 billion as fears grow of threats from China and Russia.

The move would increase military spending rising to 2 per cent of GDP, the benchmark set by NATO.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 07:27
  #1263 (permalink)  
 
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"It was a close run thing the first time against a much less capable Military."

I think at the time it was they were pretty well balanced. In the end it was US weight of arms that achieved a victory and the rest of the war showed just how tough the Japanese were

There is no post Korea data really to measure the PLA and absolutely zero on the effectiveness of the PLA(N) at any time
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 07:45
  #1264 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
There is no post Korea data really to measure the PLA and absolutely zero on the effectiveness of the PLA(N) at any time
Perhaps the Sino - Vietnamese war (1979) can give some insights, although I imagine much will have changed.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 08:20
  #1265 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Japan’s ruling party is proposing to double the defence budget to £86 billion as fears grow of threats from China and Russia.

The move would increase military spending rising to 2 per cent of GDP, the benchmark set by NATO.
Multipurpose frigates Kumano and Mogami commissioned in March and April, Mogami just yesterday.
https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20220428/...6000f/1?inb=ys
For photos.
And...
Chinese PLA-N survey ship spotted threading in and out of the islands of Okinawa yesterday.
https://japantoday.com/category/nati...a-Pref-islands


Quote: A Chinese navy vessel has been spotted in Japan's territorial waters near islands of the southwestern prefecture of Kagoshima, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

A survey ship entered Japanese waters from west of Kuchinoerabu Island at around 11 p.m. Tuesday and sailed out of the territorial waters south of Yakushima Island at around 2:10 a.m. Wednesday, the ministry said. It is the first such intrusion by a Chinese navy vessel that the Defense Ministry has confirmed and announced since last November. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic channels. The Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Japan Coast Guard monitored the passage of the Chinese vessel. Chinese ships have repeatedly entered Japan's territorial waters or navigated in adjacent areas, most notably near the Senkaku Islands, a group of East China Sea islets controlled by Japan but claimed by China under the name Diaoyu. China's growing military presence in the South and East China seas has been a source of friction with countries in the region, with some having overlapping territorial claims.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 08:54
  #1266 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
Multipurpose frigates Kumano and Mogami commissioned in March and April, Mogami just yesterday.
https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20220428/...6000f/1?inb=ys
For photos.
And...
Chinese PLA-N survey ship spotted threading in and out of the islands of Okinawa yesterday.
https://japantoday.com/category/nati...a-Pref-islands

Quote: A Chinese navy vessel has been spotted in Japan's territorial waters near islands of the southwestern prefecture of Kagoshima, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

A survey ship entered Japanese waters from west of Kuchinoerabu Island at around 11 p.m. Tuesday and sailed out of the territorial waters south of Yakushima Island at around 2:10 a.m. Wednesday, the ministry said. It is the first such intrusion by a Chinese navy vessel that the Defense Ministry has confirmed and announced since last November. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic channels. The Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Japan Coast Guard monitored the passage of the Chinese vessel. Chinese ships have repeatedly entered Japan's territorial waters or navigated in adjacent areas, most notably near the Senkaku Islands, a group of East China Sea islets controlled by Japan but claimed by China under the name Diaoyu. China's growing military presence in the South and East China seas has been a source of friction with countries in the region, with some having overlapping territorial claims.

Right of Transit Passage

The right of transit passage is defined as the exercise of the freedoms of navigation and overflight, solely for the purpose of continuous and expeditious transit through an international strait between one part of the high seas or an EEZ and another part of the high seas or an EEZ, in the normal modes of operation utilized by ships and aircraft for such passage. An exception to the right of transit passage declares that the right “shall not apply if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland” and “there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics. Transit passage cannot be hampered or suspended by the coastal State for any purpose during peacetime. This also applies to transiting ships, including warships, of States at peace with the bordering coastal State but involved in armed conflict with another State. The right of transit passage applicable in peacetime, along with the laws and regulations of States bordering straits adopted in accordance with international law, continue to apply during armed conflict. However, during transit belligerents must not conduct offensive operations against enemy forces, nor use such neutral waters as a place of sanctuary or as a base of operations.

Japan does not consider itself to be an archipelagic state, so UNCLOS Section 1, 2 and 3 apply. Interesting that China bleats about the innocent passage of the Spratleys and the other reefs that they have made sinking military establishments on, in contravention of the rulings of the UN under UNCLOS.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 09:43
  #1267 (permalink)  
 
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Well, it was the middle of the night, and only 6 km offshore, and not an international waterway, and they have been caught [email protected] mapping the sea floor around there before, allegedly for their subs. Plus, I think they were more interested in what the US is planning to do on nearby Mageshima, not mentioned of course in the article.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 09:52
  #1268 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
Well, it was the middle of the night, and only 6 km offshore, and not an international waterway, and they have been caught [email protected] mapping the sea floor around there before, allegedly for their subs. Plus, I think they were more interested in what the US is planning to do on nearby Mageshima, not mentioned of course in the article.
Article 40 Research and survey activities

During transit passage, foreign ships, including marine scientific research and hydrographic survey ships, may not carry out any research or survey activities without the prior authorization of the States bordering straits.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 09:57
  #1269 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
Article 40 Research and survey activities

During transit passage, foreign ships, including marine scientific research and hydrographic survey ships, may not carry out any research or survey activities without the prior authorization of the States bordering straits.
Ah, thank you for that, fdr. I guess from the J gov reaction that they didn't get prior permission, knowing full well it would not be granted, thus better to make a quick dart in and out.
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Old 28th Apr 2022, 23:48
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FWIW - here's a broader perspective on the Solomons issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...28-p5agr9.html
It will be very interesting to see if lessons have been learned about the South China Sea salami slicing/frog boiling strategies used by the PRC...
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 07:25
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"Well, it was the middle of the night, and only 6 km offshore, and not an international waterway, and they have been caught [email protected]mapping the sea floor around there before,"

remember that sub of Sweden years back................ but of of course there are dozens of published accounts of western SSN's "mapping the seabed" well inside other people's territorial waters
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 08:35
  #1272 (permalink)  
 
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An interesting story has surfaced over here (no pun intended).
From the ABC - which will be geoblocked for you lot up in Pomgolia and in the Excited States.

One of China's largest defence and aerospace companies promised to upgrade almost three dozen airstrips in Solomon Islands as part of an ambitious plan to transform the Pacific Islands country into an "aeronautical hub" for the region.
In return, the Solomon Islands government said it would purchase six aircraft from AVIC Commercial Aircraft, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned defence behemoth which has built small and medium-sized aeroplanes to be sold to developing countries.
The proposed exchange was laid out two-and-a-half years ago in a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which has been obtained by the ABC.

So, I wonder what the runway length and PCN number of those upgraded airstrips would have been...?!!!
The actual document itself is on the ABC website - thank you Australian Intelligence Agencies.
The speculation is COVID scuttled this from going ahead.
Sneaky Chinese.
Anyone would think there's an election going on in Australia at the moment...
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 12:22
  #1273 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
An interesting story has surfaced over here (no pun intended).
From the ABC - which will be geoblocked for you lot up in Pomgolia and in the Excited States.

One of China's largest defence and aerospace companies promised to upgrade almost three dozen airstrips in Solomon Islands as part of an ambitious plan to transform the Pacific Islands country into an "aeronautical hub" for the region.
In return, the Solomon Islands government said it would purchase six aircraft from AVIC Commercial Aircraft, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned defence behemoth which has built small and medium-sized aeroplanes to be sold to developing countries.
The proposed exchange was laid out two-and-a-half years ago in a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which has been obtained by the ABC.

So, I wonder what the runway length and PCN number of those upgraded airstrips would have been...?!!!
The actual document itself is on the ABC website - thank you Australian Intelligence Agencies.
The speculation is COVID scuttled this from going ahead.
Sneaky Chinese.
Anyone would think there's an election going on in Australia at the moment...
3 dozen airports, Solomons? Wow, aren't drugs illegal in China?

Only if they bring really big bulldozers, or build up more artificial islands as they did in the SCS.

In the Solomon FIR there are 2 jet capable airports of any use. Of all of the others, about a dozen can take a king air, the rest are good for helicopters. Floatplanes work but the water I can be pretty choppy. Perhaps AVIC are planning to send a bunch of AN-2 clones.

ICAO IATA Location
AGGH HIR Honiara [Honiara Intl (Henderson Intl)], Guadalcanal, SB
AGGI MBU Mbambanakira [Mbambanakira Airport (Babanakira Airfield)], Guadalcanal, SB (23 nm / 43 km SW)
AGGJ AVU Avu Avu [Haimaru Airport], Guadalcanal, SB (34 nm / 62 km SE)
AGGU RUS Marau [Paruru Airport], Guadalcanal, SB (52 nm / 97 km SE)
AGGY XYA Yandina [Yandina Airport], Central, SB (54 nm / 99 km W)
AGAF AFT Afutara [Afutara Airport], Malaita Island, Malaita, SB (55 nm / 102 km E)
AGGA AKS Auki [Auki Gwaunaru'u Airport], Malaita Island, Malaita, SB (57 nm / 106 km NE)
AGAT ATD Atoifi [Uru Harbour Airport], Malaita Island, Malaita, SB (66 nm / 122 km NE)
AGOB MHM Malaita [Manaoba Island Baenalu Airport (Mana'oba)], Manaoba Island, Malaita, SB (79 nm / 147 km NE)
AGGP PRS Parasi [Marau Sound Airport], Marau Sound Island, Guadalcanal, SB (82 nm / 152 km E)
AGGF FRE Fera Island [Fera Airport (Fera/Maringe Airport)], Santa Isabel Islands, Isabel, SB (84 nm / 155 km N)
AGJO JJA Jajao [Jajao Airport], Santa Isabel Island, Isabel, SB (86 nm / 160 km NW)
AGGB BNY Anua [Bellona/Anua Airport], Bellona Island, Rennell and Bellona, SB (113 nm / 209 km S)
AGAR RNA Arona [Ulawa Airport (Arona Airport)], Ulawa Island, Malaita, SB (117 nm / 216 km E)
AGOK GTA Gatokae [Gatokae Airport], Nggatokae Island, Western, SB (118 nm / 218 km W)
AGGK IRA Kirakira [Ngorangora], Makira Island, Makira-Ulawa, SB (125 nm / 232 km SE)
AGGR RNL Tingoa [Rennell/Tingoa Airport], Rennell Island, Rennell and Bellona, SB (126 nm / 233 km S)
AGBT BPF Batuna [Batuna Airport], Vangunu Island, Western, SB (126 nm / 233 km NW)
AGGV VAO Suavanao [Suavanao Airport], Santa Isabel Island, Isabel, SB (135 nm / 251 km NW)
AGGS EGM Seghe (Sege) [Seghe Airport], New Georgia Island, Western, SB (139 nm / 257 km W)


etc...
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Old 12th May 2022, 06:16
  #1274 (permalink)  
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Not only practicing hitting ships in harbour with ballistic missiles - but hitting them midship.

https://news.usni.org/2022/05/11/gre...chinese-desert


Great Wall of Naval Targets Discovered in Chinese Desert



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Old 12th May 2022, 07:38
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Given all the heat generated by the Solomon's offer I was rather amazed to read that the Chinese only have ONE naval base outside of China - in Djibouti.

Whereas the USA,& the UK have................ a few more
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Old 12th May 2022, 09:01
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Given all the heat generated by the Solomon's offer I was rather amazed to read that the Chinese only have ONE naval base outside of China - in Djibouti.
Which is right next to a NATO base and fuelling jetty protected by the French Foreign Legion. Its a significant move as part of their 'Belt and Road' initiative. Djibouti is a beautiful country that has been riven by civil war for many years and Djibouti City was the only part of the country that was relatively peaceful due to the presence of the French. The danger here is that the Chinese will pump investment into the country and NATO will fall out of favour and be forced out, thereby losing a strategic port in the Middle East.

Djibouti was also the main port for delivery of grain during the Ethiopian famine back in the 80s. In the early 90's, that grain was still stacked up in the port, thousands and thousands of tons of it, with 'A gift from Live Aid' written on the sack. A really depressing sight.
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Old 12th May 2022, 15:52
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Perhaps the Sino - Vietnamese war (1979) can give some insights, …
A few years ago I toured the northern part of Vietnam, adjacent to the Chinese border. One of the outcomes of the 1979 war is a network of the best maintained roads I’ve seen in Vietnam, built at vast expense in very rugged terrain, to allow quick military mobilization to the border area.





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Old 13th May 2022, 08:00
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There are a number of naval bases in Djibouti- as far as I can see the Chinese built the base as part of their efforts to join the multi-nation effort against piracy. They have the biggest need to stop piracy of any country given their role in so many supply chains. I doubt the Govt of Djibouti ever plans to "retire" to Beijing - much more likely to the outskirts of Nice

The Belt & Road initiative is a clear plan to extend influence but if the west takes an interest in some of these places they'll not fall under Chinese control.
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Old 17th May 2022, 06:33
  #1279 (permalink)  
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https://www.defensenews.com/naval/20...uise-missiles/

Satellite photo shows possible new Chinese nuclear submarine able to launch cruise missiles

MELBOURNE, Australia — A submarine seen in a satellite photo of a Chinese shipyard shows what could be a new class or subtype of a nuclear-powered attack sub with a new stealthy propulsion system and launch tubes for cruise missiles.….

The submarine has two distinct patches of green coloring on its hull immediately behind its conning tower, while a cruciform rudder arrangement and a possible shrouded propulsion system are seen.

A naval expert told Defense News he has “moderately high confidence” the submarine includes a row of vertical launch system cells for submarine-launched missiles and a shroud for pump-jet propulsion….

If the rectangular section on the submarine, as seen in the satellite photo, is indeed a set of VLS cells, it would be in line with a 2021 Pentagon report on China’s military power that the country was likely building “the Type 093B guided-missile nuclear attack submarine.”

The sighting of the new submarine comes after a model of a nuclear-powered attack submarine bearing the nameplate of China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited and fitted with VLS technology as well as pump-jet propulsion appeared online…..

The model, which features 18 VLS cells in three rows of six missile tubes behind the boat’s conning tower, was posted on Chinese social media without the shipyard’s plaque in early May. Some speculated this was a development of the Type 093 class tentatively named Type 093B.

The submarine seen in the latest satellite image of Huludao appears to measure up closely to the Type 093′s 110-meter length, indicating it is likely a development of the Type 093 rather than an altogether new class….

Last edited by T28B; 17th May 2022 at 19:17. Reason: citation quotes
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Old 23rd May 2022, 20:44
  #1280 (permalink)  
 
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The war of words is getting a bit sharper.
President Biden's remarks about defending Taiwan have received a riposte.
"Don't stand in the way of 1.4 billion Chinese" (Chinese foreign ministry spokesman).
"Do not stand in the way of 1.4 billion Chinese people", foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin tells reporters. Beijing says it is ready to defend its national interests over Taiwan, in a rebuke to President Joe Biden's vow to protect the island from any invasion by China.
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