The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Suddenly on NATO's doorstep - or even inside the door....
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...way-to-nowhere
Montenegro’s motorway to nowhere
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...way-to-nowhere
Montenegro’s motorway to nowhere
Montenegro was warned by the EU a long time ago that taking this poison pill would result in the country coming to it's financial knees.
It's not a case of them being bailed out by the EU or accepting more grist from China's mill, it's about showing China the door on it's extortionate Belt and Road Strategy.
Other countries seeking to get into bed with them should note the implications, of course for the back-handing politician, there are no scruples to consider.
IG
It's not a case of them being bailed out by the EU or accepting more grist from China's mill, it's about showing China the door on it's extortionate Belt and Road Strategy.
Other countries seeking to get into bed with them should note the implications, of course for the back-handing politician, there are no scruples to consider.
IG
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Chinese Security Minister Defects
Forget the headline and the ridiculous attempt to link it to Covid - it’s what else he knows…..
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...rets-fgrtv626r
Top Chinese spy ‘defects to US to spill Wuhan lab secrets’
One of China’s top spies is said to have defected to the United States and possibly handed the intelligence agencies information backing the theory that coronavirus escaped from a laboratory.
Dong Jingwei, 57, the deputy minister for state security in Beijing, is rumoured to have arrived in the US with his daughter in February, after first flying to Hong Kong. If confirmed, he would be the highest ranking official ever to switch sides between China and America.
Dong’s name has rarely appeared in English-language Chinese media reports. Yesterday, however, he was quoted by the South China Morning Post, a Hong-Kong-based newspaper, ordering the Chinese intelligence services to “step up their efforts to hunt down foreign agents and insiders who collude with ‘anti-China’ forces”.…..
Dong is a career official with years of experience at China’s security ministry. The social media accounts of anti-communist activists have been buzzing with speculation about him.
Han Lianchao, a pro-democracy activist who defected in 1989 after the Tiananmen Square massacre, claimed that Dong was discussed at the US-Sino talks in Alaska in March. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, was said to have demanded that Dong be extradited, a request that was rejected by the American secretary of state, Antony Blinken.
A senior administration official yesterday denied, however, that any such discussion took place in Alaska……
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...rets-fgrtv626r
Top Chinese spy ‘defects to US to spill Wuhan lab secrets’
One of China’s top spies is said to have defected to the United States and possibly handed the intelligence agencies information backing the theory that coronavirus escaped from a laboratory.
Dong Jingwei, 57, the deputy minister for state security in Beijing, is rumoured to have arrived in the US with his daughter in February, after first flying to Hong Kong. If confirmed, he would be the highest ranking official ever to switch sides between China and America.
Dong’s name has rarely appeared in English-language Chinese media reports. Yesterday, however, he was quoted by the South China Morning Post, a Hong-Kong-based newspaper, ordering the Chinese intelligence services to “step up their efforts to hunt down foreign agents and insiders who collude with ‘anti-China’ forces”.…..
Dong is a career official with years of experience at China’s security ministry. The social media accounts of anti-communist activists have been buzzing with speculation about him.
Han Lianchao, a pro-democracy activist who defected in 1989 after the Tiananmen Square massacre, claimed that Dong was discussed at the US-Sino talks in Alaska in March. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, was said to have demanded that Dong be extradited, a request that was rejected by the American secretary of state, Antony Blinken.
A senior administration official yesterday denied, however, that any such discussion took place in Alaska……
Ouch!! That's the sort of guy you really don't want to lose to the other side
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f...amme-0b553mj65
Fears rise over China’s nuclear weapons programme
Beijing is feared to be in the process of a significant expansion of its nuclear weapons capability after commencing the construction of more than 100 new missile silos in its northwestern desert.
Work is underway at several sites spanning hundreds of square miles near the ancient Silk Road city of Yumen, according to satellite images obtained by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California.
The work indicates a major uptick in China’s nuclear deterrent, Dr Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China’s nuclear arsenal, told the Washington Post.
Describing the scale of the project as “incredible,” Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Programme at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said, “if the silos under construction at other sites across China are added to the count, the total comes to about 145 silos under construction.”
“We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a US first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defences.”
Lewis said the silos are likely intended for a Chinese missile that can carry multiple warheads with a range of 9,300 miles, sufficient to reach the US mainland.
The construction boom represents a major shift for China, which is thought to hold a modest stockpile of as few as 250 nuclear weapons, compared to the 11,000 collectively owned by the US and Russia. Beijing has deployed decoy silos in the past.
Admiral Charles Richard, who commands US nuclear forces, said at a congressional hearing in April that a “breathtaking expansion” of China’s intercontinental ballistic missile programme was taking place, including mobile missile launchers that can be hidden from satellites.
The Chinese navy, meanwhile, has introduced submarines capable of holding nuclear weapons.
Fears rise over China’s nuclear weapons programme
Beijing is feared to be in the process of a significant expansion of its nuclear weapons capability after commencing the construction of more than 100 new missile silos in its northwestern desert.
Work is underway at several sites spanning hundreds of square miles near the ancient Silk Road city of Yumen, according to satellite images obtained by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California.
The work indicates a major uptick in China’s nuclear deterrent, Dr Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China’s nuclear arsenal, told the Washington Post.
Describing the scale of the project as “incredible,” Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Programme at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said, “if the silos under construction at other sites across China are added to the count, the total comes to about 145 silos under construction.”
“We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a US first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defences.”
Lewis said the silos are likely intended for a Chinese missile that can carry multiple warheads with a range of 9,300 miles, sufficient to reach the US mainland.
The construction boom represents a major shift for China, which is thought to hold a modest stockpile of as few as 250 nuclear weapons, compared to the 11,000 collectively owned by the US and Russia. Beijing has deployed decoy silos in the past.
Admiral Charles Richard, who commands US nuclear forces, said at a congressional hearing in April that a “breathtaking expansion” of China’s intercontinental ballistic missile programme was taking place, including mobile missile launchers that can be hidden from satellites.
The Chinese navy, meanwhile, has introduced submarines capable of holding nuclear weapons.
China pours 10x as much steel as the US and has 4x the population, with at least comparable GNP, so they appear entitled to play with the big boys globally.
If required as table stakes, the few hundred ICBMs and the associated few thousand nuclear warheads are a dirt cheap ante to be a full member of the club,
If required as table stakes, the few hundred ICBMs and the associated few thousand nuclear warheads are a dirt cheap ante to be a full member of the club,
Article in this weeks Economist
Carry that weight
China’s next aircraft-carrier will be its biggest
Jul 1st 2021
JIANGNAN SHIPYARD lies on an alluvial island at the mouth of the Yangzi river. It has grown rapidly since it moved there from nearby Shanghai in 2009, churning out destroyers, icebreakers and landing craft for the Chinese navy. The jewel in its crown is under construction. China is saying little about it, but satellite imagery reveals a near-complete flight deck in a corner of the yard where, less than 15 years ago, there was only farmland.
For now, the vessel-to-be is blandly known to military analysts as the Type 003. It will be China’s second domestically built aircraft-carrier and the largest ship that has ever served in the Chinese fleet. Experts at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington, have analysed satellite pictures such as the one above, which was taken in June by Planet Labs, an American firm. They conclude that the ship will be about as long as New York’s Chrysler Building is high: about 320 metres. She will mark another leap forward in China’s advance as a naval power.
The Type 003 could be launched this year, state media say. But building carriers is not the same as sailing them. Flying planes off wobbly decks is hard. In America, thousands of jets and pilots were lost in the formative years of naval aviation. It is also difficult to keep a carrier safe from missiles and submarines, and to integrate one into a “strike group” of warships. “It’s taken us over 100 years to get that right,” noted an American admiral in September. China hopes to be quicker.
There are signs that it is upping the tempo. Last year the navy put both of its carriers to sea at the same time. In April the Liaoning sailed through the Miyako Strait, south of the Japanese island of Okinawa; exercised near Taiwan and in the South China Sea; and returned the same way. Its escorts included the Renhai-class destroyer, one of the world’s most capable ships of its kind, as well as a Fuyu-class support vessel, which can replenish carrier strike-groups far from home.
Even so, a carrier designed in the early 1980s, and another based on it, hardly represent the cutting-edge of sea power. “I don’t worry from a US Navy point of view,” says Mr Montgomery. “These are just targets for our submarines.” That is where the Type 003 comes in. CSIS reckons she is already 10 metres longer than her predecessors. She is likely to be the world’s largest non-American carrier for many years, The Chinese navy does not plan to stop there. It is widely assumed that the Type 003’s successor is being planned. It may be nuclear-powered.
Mastering these technologies and learning the craft of conducting high-intensity air operations at sea will take years. Its planes are lightly armed, even compared with European counterparts, says Alessio Patalano of King’s College London. “I’ve yet to see a single picture of a Chinese plane taking off from a deck with a full payload,” he says.
The expert consensus is that China plans eventually to build a fleet of somewhere between six and ten. That would put it within spitting distance of America’s fleet of 11, the world’s largest.
Carry that weightChina’s next aircraft-carrier will be its biggest
Jul 1st 2021
JIANGNAN SHIPYARD lies on an alluvial island at the mouth of the Yangzi river. It has grown rapidly since it moved there from nearby Shanghai in 2009, churning out destroyers, icebreakers and landing craft for the Chinese navy. The jewel in its crown is under construction. China is saying little about it, but satellite imagery reveals a near-complete flight deck in a corner of the yard where, less than 15 years ago, there was only farmland.
For now, the vessel-to-be is blandly known to military analysts as the Type 003. It will be China’s second domestically built aircraft-carrier and the largest ship that has ever served in the Chinese fleet. Experts at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington, have analysed satellite pictures such as the one above, which was taken in June by Planet Labs, an American firm. They conclude that the ship will be about as long as New York’s Chrysler Building is high: about 320 metres. She will mark another leap forward in China’s advance as a naval power.
The Type 003 could be launched this year, state media say. But building carriers is not the same as sailing them. Flying planes off wobbly decks is hard. In America, thousands of jets and pilots were lost in the formative years of naval aviation. It is also difficult to keep a carrier safe from missiles and submarines, and to integrate one into a “strike group” of warships. “It’s taken us over 100 years to get that right,” noted an American admiral in September. China hopes to be quicker.
There are signs that it is upping the tempo. Last year the navy put both of its carriers to sea at the same time. In April the Liaoning sailed through the Miyako Strait, south of the Japanese island of Okinawa; exercised near Taiwan and in the South China Sea; and returned the same way. Its escorts included the Renhai-class destroyer, one of the world’s most capable ships of its kind, as well as a Fuyu-class support vessel, which can replenish carrier strike-groups far from home.
Even so, a carrier designed in the early 1980s, and another based on it, hardly represent the cutting-edge of sea power. “I don’t worry from a US Navy point of view,” says Mr Montgomery. “These are just targets for our submarines.” That is where the Type 003 comes in. CSIS reckons she is already 10 metres longer than her predecessors. She is likely to be the world’s largest non-American carrier for many years, The Chinese navy does not plan to stop there. It is widely assumed that the Type 003’s successor is being planned. It may be nuclear-powered.
Mastering these technologies and learning the craft of conducting high-intensity air operations at sea will take years. Its planes are lightly armed, even compared with European counterparts, says Alessio Patalano of King’s College London. “I’ve yet to see a single picture of a Chinese plane taking off from a deck with a full payload,” he says.
The expert consensus is that China plans eventually to build a fleet of somewhere between six and ten. That would put it within spitting distance of America’s fleet of 11, the world’s largest.
Mastering these technologies and learning the craft of conducting high-intensity air operations at sea will take years. Its planes are lightly armed, even compared with European counterparts, says Alessio Patalano of King’s College London. “I’ve yet to see a single picture of a Chinese plane taking off from a deck with a full payload,” he says.
I wonder if those new ships will use the new deep sea ports they built in Kitimat B.C. As well as the other structures that were built by their “ people “
Dual use ? LNG tankers or Submarines ?
Fresh from their Arctic trading with Canadian Forces , it will not take them long to catch up . First space walk today at the new space station .
I wonder what they are serving for lunch at Kings College , they should enjoy it before they get their lunch eaten again .
Dual use ? LNG tankers or Submarines ?
Fresh from their Arctic trading with Canadian Forces , it will not take them long to catch up . First space walk today at the new space station .
I wonder what they are serving for lunch at Kings College , they should enjoy it before they get their lunch eaten again .
They can build all the ports they like but whoever runs the country can take them over in an hour if they want.
If they dare....at risk of having their Countries taken over in return perhaps.
The Chinese...being the oldest continuous civilization on the planet....are students of history if nothing else.
You can bet they recall their former adversary the Japanese and how they came to grief when they tired to launch their infamous Greater Prosperity Sphere or whatever their War of expansion and conquest was called.....and will not make the same mistakes.
The Chinese understand politics, diplomacy, and economics....and can do each on a scale the Japanese could not.
Western Navies no longer have the numbers of ships or the industrial base that allowed the survival of the Western Powers during WWII.
Should War break out between China and the West....this shall be a very different War.
It might be a way of our writing off our Chinese Financial Debt if we can prevail....but at what cost in Lives, Ships, Aircraft, and National Treasure?
The Chinese...being the oldest continuous civilization on the planet....are students of history if nothing else.
You can bet they recall their former adversary the Japanese and how they came to grief when they tired to launch their infamous Greater Prosperity Sphere or whatever their War of expansion and conquest was called.....and will not make the same mistakes.
The Chinese understand politics, diplomacy, and economics....and can do each on a scale the Japanese could not.
Western Navies no longer have the numbers of ships or the industrial base that allowed the survival of the Western Powers during WWII.
Should War break out between China and the West....this shall be a very different War.
It might be a way of our writing off our Chinese Financial Debt if we can prevail....but at what cost in Lives, Ships, Aircraft, and National Treasure?
"at risk of having their Countries taken over in return perhaps."
they're going to invade Canada? Bloody hell - that's some amphibious capability
they're going to invade Canada? Bloody hell - that's some amphibious capability
Is Canada going to sit out a War with China if one kicks off with the West?
Impounding Foreign Nationals and Assets is part of the initial stages of War isn't it?
Would not those Port facilities and Container Ports be of strategic value to the belligerents?
What happens should China prevail in such a War?
Will the West refrain from the use of Nuclear Weapons if it sees a loss coming in at Sea and a destruction of its ability to use sea transportation of commercial goods to/from its Nations?
China ain't the Argies.....we are talking War on a huge scale again should it happen.
But then....are not the Geniuses telling us there shall never be a conventional War again....what if they are wrong?
Do the Nukes stay in the holster and one side or the other merely accept defeat?
Impounding Foreign Nationals and Assets is part of the initial stages of War isn't it?
Would not those Port facilities and Container Ports be of strategic value to the belligerents?
What happens should China prevail in such a War?
Will the West refrain from the use of Nuclear Weapons if it sees a loss coming in at Sea and a destruction of its ability to use sea transportation of commercial goods to/from its Nations?
China ain't the Argies.....we are talking War on a huge scale again should it happen.
But then....are not the Geniuses telling us there shall never be a conventional War again....what if they are wrong?
Do the Nukes stay in the holster and one side or the other merely accept defeat?
Is Canada going to sit out a War with China if one kicks off with the West?
Impounding Foreign Nationals and Assets is part of the initial stages of War isn't it?
Would not those Port facilities and Container Ports be of strategic value to the belligerents?
What happens should China prevail in such a War?
Will the West refrain from the use of Nuclear Weapons if it sees a loss coming in at Sea and a destruction of its ability to use sea transportation of commercial goods to/from its Nations?
China ain't the Argies.....we are talking War on a huge scale again should it happen.
But then....are not the Geniuses telling us there shall never be a conventional War again....what if they are wrong?
Do the Nukes stay in the holster and one side or the other merely accept defeat?
Impounding Foreign Nationals and Assets is part of the initial stages of War isn't it?
Would not those Port facilities and Container Ports be of strategic value to the belligerents?
What happens should China prevail in such a War?
Will the West refrain from the use of Nuclear Weapons if it sees a loss coming in at Sea and a destruction of its ability to use sea transportation of commercial goods to/from its Nations?
China ain't the Argies.....we are talking War on a huge scale again should it happen.
But then....are not the Geniuses telling us there shall never be a conventional War again....what if they are wrong?
Do the Nukes stay in the holster and one side or the other merely accept defeat?
That said, why would they? The countries where they are setting up ports and facilities usually are also heavily dependent on Chinese goods, so the local political leaders will be very leery of seizing the Chinese facilities.
As is, China is winning without firing a shot and China's global position continues to improve, eventually perhaps to the point that Taiwan is a layup. The main concern is that Mr Xi gets impatient about Taiwan in the near term.
However, China also knows that astonishing things can happen in war, as Deng learned when he tried to 'teach Vietnam a lesson'. So expect China to first stack the deck much more heavily than at present, which will take time.
Perhaps in Mr Xi's third or fourth term, he might feel pressed by age to get it done. No nukes will be used, there is no incentive to do so and the large expansion of China's deterrent forces now under way makes nuclear weapons pretty useless as a threat.
China pours more steel that the rest of the world put together, so the industrial capacity is there to win a large scale war.
That said, why would they? The countries where they are setting up ports and facilities usually are also heavily dependent on Chinese goods, so the local political leaders will be very leery of seizing the Chinese facilities.
As is, China is winning without firing a shot and China's global position continues to improve, eventually perhaps to the point that Taiwan is a layup. The main concern is that Mr Xi gets impatient about Taiwan in the near term.
However, China also knows that astonishing things can happen in war, as Deng learned when he tried to 'teach Vietnam a lesson'. So expect China to first stack the deck much more heavily than at present, which will take time.
Perhaps in Mr Xi's third or fourth term, he might feel pressed by age to get it done. No nukes will be used, there is no incentive to do so and the large expansion of China's deterrent forces now under way makes nuclear weapons pretty useless as a threat.
That said, why would they? The countries where they are setting up ports and facilities usually are also heavily dependent on Chinese goods, so the local political leaders will be very leery of seizing the Chinese facilities.
As is, China is winning without firing a shot and China's global position continues to improve, eventually perhaps to the point that Taiwan is a layup. The main concern is that Mr Xi gets impatient about Taiwan in the near term.
However, China also knows that astonishing things can happen in war, as Deng learned when he tried to 'teach Vietnam a lesson'. So expect China to first stack the deck much more heavily than at present, which will take time.
Perhaps in Mr Xi's third or fourth term, he might feel pressed by age to get it done. No nukes will be used, there is no incentive to do so and the large expansion of China's deterrent forces now under way makes nuclear weapons pretty useless as a threat.
If you surrender, you have lost forever and the enemy gets your nukes, as they would not allow you to keep them,
But if you use them, you might just steal victory from your adversary,
Lose the war, and possibly your national identity and your people, or use nukes as a last resort …
I know what I would do.
Sadly.....there are people that would do just that....on all sides.
Yet...they think themselves sane and rational decent human beings.
But.....even Khrushchev backed away from that....as did JFK.....so perhaps there is hope.
Yet...they think themselves sane and rational decent human beings.
But.....even Khrushchev backed away from that....as did JFK.....so perhaps there is hope.
No one will win after a nuclear war. If the big guys start firing off missiles there'll be no-one left, anywhere.
Much as I love western democracy I don't put it above the human race
Much as I love western democracy I don't put it above the human race
The rest are trying to catch up, or, as the Chinese are doing, implementing old style Imperial domination via all means: trade, information, diplomacy, force, bullying, blackmail, etc.
Right out of the playbook of the Western Imperial system, the Ottoman Imperial System, the Persian Imperial System, the Incan, and so on.
The Chinese, though, have about 4000 years of learning how to play the long game.
If you want to go back to that old system, go ahead.
Western Democracy is the last ideological hope for mankind not to kill one another off. It created the UN and an attempt (however imperfect) at international order and equilibrium. The West has been grinding away at that since the Peace of Westphalia, each iteration a slight upgrade over the last. The Chinese are very much Old School.
You, a child of that Western system, are apparently oblivious to its value.
There's a short pier, take a long walk.
The Nuclear World War won’t be deliberately started, it will be a mistake caused by the type of military incompetence that produced the shoot down of the Ukrainian airline by an Iranian missile battery.
The traditional nuclear powers generally have affective controls, but the Pakistani nuclear forces is under the “control” of the ISI wackaddodles and I don’t need to say anything more about N Korea. Pakistan has a border with China and is inside China’s inner circle of interests.
A Pakistani first strike against India followed by a counter strike will inevitably drag in the rest of the world…..
The traditional nuclear powers generally have affective controls, but the Pakistani nuclear forces is under the “control” of the ISI wackaddodles and I don’t need to say anything more about N Korea. Pakistan has a border with China and is inside China’s inner circle of interests.
A Pakistani first strike against India followed by a counter strike will inevitably drag in the rest of the world…..