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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 14th May 2021, 07:31
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China has just announced the Census figures - a very very small increase in population (and a lot of people think that's massaged). The percentage of the population that is retired is going up very fast - by 2040 it'll be like the West and by 2050 every working Chinese will be supporting 2 non-working I think

That really cuts into the funds available for defence spending. The Govt is far too scared to increase the retirement age from 60, and the Chinese Health and Social care system is far behind most other E Asian countries. Looks like peak years for new spending could be between now and 2030 - after that they're in the same boat as the rest of us
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Old 14th May 2021, 17:19
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Originally Posted by tartare
There's another unspoken assumption too in all this analysis.
And that's that the United States won't continue to technologically innovate at a rate that outpaces China, which will exponentially increase its force multiplication.
I'm more hopeful than most commentators.
Note again the $12bn per annum expenditure of the USAF in Special Access programs alone.
There is clearly a huge amount going on that we don't know about.
Technically innovate at a rate which outpaces China is an assertion which seems quite unsupported by the evidence. Buying more F-15EXs is indicative of a stagnant culture which has lost the ability to innovate.
The poster child imho are the US government's launch vehicles, all way over budget and modest performers, getting creamed by more innovative private designs from SpaceX.
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Old 14th May 2021, 17:34
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Technically innovate at a rate which outpaces China is an assertion which seems quite unsupported by the evidence. Buying more F-15EXs is indicative of a stagnant culture which has lost the ability to innovate.
That seems like a misconception.

We are at the point of a cusp where an individual airframe performance is becoming less important that, perhaps, control of a fleet of active wingmen and programmes such as Skyborg aren’t getting the attention they deserve. A two seat F-15EX replacement for the F-15E with 4 Skyborg could vastly outmatch a J-20:or similar platforms.

In fact it may be the concentration on building more Gen 5 stealthy platforms by the Chinese and Russians which is wasting money on technological dinosaurs. Whilst Gen 6 swarms are the future…..

Remember the NGAD is seen as a family of systems, not an individual aircraft…

Last edited by ORAC; 14th May 2021 at 17:51.
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Old 14th May 2021, 19:36
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Chinese census figures can be taken with a pinch of salt especially in the country areas. There is no reason to believe that the system has changed from the manual counting of the past.. Because of the 'one child' policy there is a large number of people who were born out of the system and therefore their very existence had to be hidden to avoid a large fine. As the census team approached there would be a certain number of people running around the back to the houses that had already been counted. Even if an illegitimate 2nd child had officially arrived he/she could not get an identity card so he/she was on his/her own.
There is no shortage in China of people who work in the cash only sector mainly because, as they do not officially exist, they cannot get a bank account.

A bit like the UK really.

Last edited by Fareastdriver; 14th May 2021 at 19:47.
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Old 14th May 2021, 20:39
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver
Chinese census figures can be taken with a pinch of salt especially in the country areas. There is no reason to believe that the system has changed from the manual counting of the past.. Because of the 'one child' policy there is a large number of people who were born out of the system and therefore their very existence had to be hidden to avoid a large fine. As the census team approached there would be a certain number of people running around the back to the houses that had already been counted. Even if an illegitimate 2nd child had officially arrived he/she could not get an identity card so he/she was on his/her own.
There is no shortage in China of people who work in the cash only sector mainly because, as they do not officially exist, they cannot get a bank account.

A bit like the UK really.
That is actually super good news from the CCP perspective if correct. They can resolve their birth rate problem by simply recognizing the Chinese people that actually exist,, but were previously uncounted.
Sadly the bureaucratic obstacles to reforming the 'hukuo' system may prevent such a happy outcome.
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Old 15th May 2021, 03:15
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I think you'll find that it's Hukou - kou means mouth, i.e. something you have to feed.
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Old 15th May 2021, 08:05
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"Chinese census figures can be taken with a pinch of salt especially in the country areas. T"

All census are incorrect at some level - its the directivity that counts TBH - any way I'm sure they're more accurate then in the lat50's early 60's I can remember a TV Interview with Chou En Lai when has was asked the question. His answer was on the lines of " We 're not absolutely sure. China definitely has less more 500 million people and not more than 600 million but it's very difficult to count them all at the same time"
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Old 15th May 2021, 12:10
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy
Etudiant

I think you'll find that it's Hukou - kou means mouth, i.e. something you have to feed.
Thanks, I looked up the spelling but failed to write it down properly.
Should have cut and pasted....
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Old 15th May 2021, 18:16
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Originally Posted by ORAC
That seems like a misconception.

We are at the point of a cusp where an individual airframe performance is becoming less important that, perhaps, control of a fleet of active wingmen and programmes such as Skyborg aren’t getting the attention they deserve. A two seat F-15EX replacement for the F-15E with 4 Skyborg could vastly outmatch a J-20:or similar platforms.

In fact it may be the concentration on building more Gen 5 stealthy platforms by the Chinese and Russians which is wasting money on technological dinosaurs. Whilst Gen 6 swarms are the future…..

Remember the NGAD is seen as a family of systems, not an individual aircraft…
The technology of an individual platform is essentially irrelevant. The difference between the PLAF and the USAF is profound. The USAF has a huge recruiting, training, logistics, and command and control advantage over the PLAF which has virtually no actual operational experience and a senior leadership that is chosen for political loyalty, not demonstrated operational competence.

The F15 had a air to air combat record of 115 to 0. Many of its kills were against peer or near peer airframes, but the training, experience and far superior organizational competence of the USAF guaranteed tactical superiority.

Could the Chinese military hurt the US Armed Forces, yes but they will be utterly destroyed in the process, I would suggest that all the reports that China would win a military conflict with any significant US forces should be taken with a grain of salt. There are many agencies and enterprises that are invested in playing up the threat.
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Old 15th May 2021, 18:23
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If history has shown anything it is the next conflict will not be where we are expecting it and who’s cause is unforeseen. Personally I think if there is a conflict with the West involving China it will be a by product of a Pakistan v India nuclear exchange which draws in the rest of the world. I find it very concerning that the Pakistani ISI fanatics have control of the nuclear weapons.
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Old 15th May 2021, 22:57
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
If history has shown anything it is the next conflict will not be where we are expecting it and who’s cause is unforeseen. Personally I think if there is a conflict with the West involving China it will be a by product of a Pakistan v India nuclear exchange which draws in the rest of the world. I find it very concerning that the Pakistani ISI fanatics have control of the nuclear weapons.
You raise a very valid point, big problems erupt from places where people are not dealing with the festering issues.
That was how the Balkan mess exploded, no one gave a hoot.
Pakistan ditto, they will be losing beaucoup bucks as the US abandons Afghanistan, because all the massive supply came via Pakistan.
Unlike India, Pakistan has zippo to fall back on, no massive cheap sweat shops , no big drug precursor factories.
Once the US money stops, they will depend on the good graces of China and China is a hard task master by all accounts.
A war seems like just the ticket under those circumstances. The Kaiser's Germany thought the same a century or so ago.
Everybody lost in that instance, could well happen again.
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Old 17th May 2021, 00:10
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History has also shown that wars are also started because of territorial demands that one side thinks is valid and the other thinks are not. The German invasion of Poland is a significant case in point. Crazy Adolf just wanted the Danzig corridor and thought his demand was perfectly reasonable. He did not think that Britain and France would have an objection as they had let him have all his other demands. China thinks the same about Taiwan but this time the West is making it clear that an invasion of Taiwan will have consequences. Carazy Adolf was aiming for a major war in 1943 so China's grab for Taiwan will be determined by their timetable and when they think the PLA can take and hold Taiwan. Personally I think it will be in 2049 as that will be the centenary of the establishment of the PRC and atone for the century of shame that is a part of the CCPs grievance with the West. As 1939 showed however a miscalculation of another countries intent can destroy any carefully laid out strategy.
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Old 18th May 2021, 16:52
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
If history has shown anything it is the next conflict will not be where we are expecting it and who’s cause is unforeseen. Personally I think if there is a conflict with the West involving China it will be a by product of a Pakistan v India nuclear exchange which draws in the rest of the world. I find it very concerning that the Pakistani ISI fanatics have control of the nuclear weapons.
Depends on who India blames for the pandemic . If they blame China , game on . If they blame the people who funded the research in the leaky laboratory doing banned biological weapons research . You might expect to see a few more denial of service crypto computer events from the bunkers of the curry call centers that provide the logistics to most of the gasoline stations . The business that supplies the computers to most gasoline stations is owned and operated by a company with some interesting political heavyweight connections. India could shut down a huge chunk global business simply because the greed of corporations made them choose the cheapest IT options in logistics and tech. Or they may to choose to blame the French designers of the leaky laboratory.
Blaming the French might suit everyone !
Corporate interests and national interests do not always align .
Who knows what mischief may occur if the Indian systems were to get hacked by cyber warriors or someone looking for a little entertainment ?

Last edited by fitliker; 18th May 2021 at 17:30.
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Old 2nd Jun 2021, 01:56
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China Shenanigans

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...space-14927154

shenanigans: horseplay, mischief, nonsense, tomfoolery, frolics, antic, monkey-business, monkeyshine, prank, stunt and trick. Take your pick...
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Old 2nd Jun 2021, 06:36
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...near-malaysia/

China sends 16 military aircraft over disputed South China Sea shoals near Malaysia

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Old 2nd Jun 2021, 07:11
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Is that all the Malaysians have for air defence, Bae Hawks?
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Old 2nd Jun 2021, 09:55
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
Is that all the Malaysians have for air defence, Bae Hawks?
Actually it is impressive that they had both radar coverage as well as the ability to muster an immediate intercept.
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Old 2nd Jun 2021, 16:45
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Arrow

Originally Posted by Lookleft
Is that all the Malaysians have for air defence, Bae Hawks?
No, but I believe The single seat Bae208 Hawks were the nearest based aircraft.

They also have F/A-18D / SU-30MKM / MIG-29 / F-5 ?
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Old 3rd Jun 2021, 01:04
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Unless the Malaysians are playing some Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon strategy I think they should be putting their best equipment in a position to intercept Chinese aircraft when it comes close to their airspace. If they don't then the Chinese will think that the Malaysians don't care and just put in a few more dashed lines on their maps.
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Old 3rd Jun 2021, 05:42
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https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...AuZjQsljZza2L0

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