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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 7th Apr 2021, 04:34
  #841 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat View Post
Sorry, you are judging China by Western values. The Chinese public would never hear of any failure, neither would they question them too hard.
I am not so sure. Social media has changed the game for despotic regimes. I don’t think the kind of casualties on both sides necessary to subdue Taiwan can be covered up.

It would be a blood bath because China can’t afford to lose, that is why I think war is unlikely.
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Old 7th Apr 2021, 05:01
  #842 (permalink)  
 
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And the Chinese public would find that out through Google, or Facebook?

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Old 7th Apr 2021, 06:19
  #843 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat View Post
Sorry, you are judging China by Western values. The Chinese public would never hear of any failure, neither would they question them too hard.
Far too many spigots to shut off to keep the word from spreading.
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Old 7th Apr 2021, 08:57
  #844 (permalink)  
 
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There was enough backlash from the PLA losses during China's war with Vietnam. With over a billion mobile phones Beijing will not be able to keep a bloodbath in Taiwan quiet.
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Old 7th Apr 2021, 13:37
  #845 (permalink)  

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And yet they seemed to try it in the LAC fracas. Albeit a much smaller & remote conflict.
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Old 7th Apr 2021, 13:57
  #846 (permalink)  
 
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Boring S**t

TMSC has production problems due drought. Maybe 3 power failures due XXX and we have a few months gap in high end semiconductor production.

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Old 8th Apr 2021, 21:48
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China's Rhineland test in the South China Sea

China's Rhineland test in the South China Sea (msn.com)

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is enabling China to do in the South China Sea what Nazi Germany did with its remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 — that is to say, physically challenge the established international order in a politically potent manner.

The consequences for America, the South China Sea rim nations, and the broader international community may be significant.
At contention is the Chinese maritime militia force that has moored itself within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. The approximately 200 vessels have been sitting in Whitsun Reef since late March. In 2016, an international maritime arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines' sovereignty over the Spratly chain of which Whitsun Reef is a part. Still, China insists it owns the South China Sea. This geographic absurdity serves China's imperial effort to make itself into a 21st-century version of 1930s/1940s Japan — a power that is able to dictate political concessions from other nations in return for their access to the multitrillion-dollar trade flows that move through these waters.

The Rhineland comparison takes root in the fact that, as with China in this situation, Nazi Germany's incursion was ultimately designed to test whether Britain and France would back up their claims with action. They did not. With regards to the Whitsun Reef, America's problem is that the Philippines is a treaty ally led by an anti-American clown. Apparently determined to follow in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's footsteps and win China's order of friendship at all costs, Duterte is unwilling to defend his nation's interests. The degree to which Duterte gleefully appeases China's aggression is truly striking. Consider, for example, that the supposedly strongman president has transformed his navy into a glorified beach patrol.

So, while the U.S. and the Philippine defense establishments recognize the import of China's incursion, their hands are tied. Their long-standing mutual defense treaty is caught between China's bold incursion and the messy place of Duterte's mind.

China was banking on this tension. This deployment is almost certainly a design of Chinese President Xi Jinping's foreign policy brain, Yang Jiechi. Yang wants to undermine the Biden administration as it seeks to strengthen alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. It wants to show that America's "free and open Indo-Pacific" is as rhetoric-thin as was the Treaty of Versailles.

Smarter than the Nazis, the Chinese communists are playing a longer game. They claim that their militia vessels are fishing trawlers that are simply taking temporary shelter. The Chinese know that the United States and the Philippines know that this claim is a lie (the weather is fine and will remain so for the near future), but the fishing veil offers a useful excuse for the European Union to avoid supporting their allies in favor of "seeking clarity," etc. Regardless, because the militia vessels have been asked to leave but have not done so, China can credibly present the Biden administration as hesitant. It hopes that regional powers such as Australia, Japan, Taiwan, and even India will take notice and question whether the U.S. is really all that reliable. If nothing else, it has a new reason to be confident that future antics such as this one will go unchallenged. To be clear, China does not want a shooting war. What it wants is to foster an acceptance of its omnipotent possession of the South China Sea, gradually but systemically. Its Whitsun Reef test advances that agenda.

The Biden administration faces a very difficult choice.

The Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group is operating in the South China Sea, as is the Makin Island amphibious assault ship (Makin Island is embarked with the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which includes a detachment of F-35B fighter jets). But with Duterte unwilling to demand China's relocation of the militia fleet and unwilling to enforce that withdrawal with his own military, the U.S. Navy is generally impotent here. Beijing is likely confident that the U.S. will not escalate in support of an ally if that ally is unwilling to defend its own interests. They'll be equally confident that Duterte won't change tack in a significant matter.

At least until Duterte leaves office, China will continue to exploit him. But Beijing will hope that the corrosive impact of this crisis sustains far beyond Duterte's premiership. Again, this is to the South China Sea what the Nazis' 1936 seizure of the Rhineland was to European security: a risky military test carrying profound political implications. Genocide, it seems, is not the only area in which China finds an example from the Nazis.

Original Author: Tom Rogan

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Old 8th Apr 2021, 22:23
  #848 (permalink)  
 
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It is all very well to complain about 'Chinese aggression' and throw around Nazi analogies, but the sad truth is that everybody is hooked on Chinese production, so China can and certainly will push its claims much further than it has to date.
The US is running a $30B/month trade deficit with China, that allows China to pay for lots of militia boats and a surging Navy. Their $400B deal with Iran and their ongoing port development in Pakistan and the African coast signal their future goals, to dominate the ocean lanes from the Mid East to China. The South China Sea is sort of their equivalent of what the Gulf of Mexico is for the US, Chinese waters beyond discussion from their perspective.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 12:20
  #849 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1220619.shtml
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Old 10th Apr 2021, 02:09
  #850 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...merican-empire

Niall Ferguson (see the link) has a pretty good article on the elephant in the room - what about Taiwan? - that has remained an open question between the US and China for over 50 years. In the meantime, Taiwan has carved out a niche in the global economic system.
Mr Biden will be tested, and the question is (for me): was the "pivot to the Pacific" too late when President Obama finally made it an overt aspect of American policy? (For my money, GHW Bush was far too optim1istic in his "after the wall came down" assessment of the Pacific Rim). I spent a lot of years grinding my teeth at what I saw as willful negligence ... (rant cancelled).

Seventh Fleet is going to have a busy AO for a long time to come: flying, sailing, and submarining.

Interesting, to me, to see how Mr Duterte is playing his piece of the game. Does he think that the Chinese dragon will eat him, the Philippine bison, last?
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Old 10th Apr 2021, 07:13
  #851 (permalink)  
 
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Duterte would be out of his depth running a corner store. He doesn't want the pain of bad relations with Chine, he certainly doesn't want a war but he talks BIG on every subject and some of his supporters are pressing him to "defend the Republic" - you make your bed, you have to lie in it
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Old 10th Apr 2021, 07:58
  #852 (permalink)  
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Niall Ferguson (see the link) has a pretty good article on the elephant in the room - what about Taiwan?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...hina-bk5n9b68c

US Senate unveils bipartisan plan to counter global influence of China

United States senators have unveiled wide-ranging plans to confront China by beefing up the American military in the Pacific, cracking down on intellectual property theft and enhancing support for Taiwan.

The draft Strategic Competition Act of 2021 is a rare bipartisan initiative designed to counter China’s rising global influence. It reflects toughened attitudes towards Beijing among Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

The 280-page draft calls on the Pentagon to strengthen military ties with allies in the Indo-Pacific region in the face of Beijing’s military modernisation and expansion.

It calls for an enhanced partnership with Taiwan, which China regards as its own and which the US at present supports but without officially recognising. The bill states that Taiwan is “vital” to US strategic interests and that there should be no limits on American officials’ interactions with their Taiwanese counterparts.

This is in keeping with a lifting of restrictions governing official contacts with Taiwan under the Trump administration.

The draft legislation, drawn up by the Senate foreign relations committee, also calls on the White House and state department to advocate and actively advance Taiwan’s participation in the UN and other international bodies, as well as to promote democracy in Hong Kong.

The bill would also allow for further sanctions on Chinese officials in relation to abuses against the minority Muslim Uighur population in Xinjiang.

On the economic front, the bill would require the secretary of state to issue a list each year of Chinese state-owned companies that have benefited from intellectual property theft that hurt American companies.....

The foreign relations committee plans to debate the draft legislation next week.

Bob Menendez, the Democratic chairman of the committee, said it was the first significant proposal to bring Democrats and Republicans together in laying out a strategic approach towards Beijing. The aim was to show the US was ready and capable of competing with China across all dimensions of national and international power for decades to come, he said.

“I am confident that this effort has the necessary support to be overwhelmingly approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee next week and the full Senate shortly thereafter,” he said.
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Old 10th Apr 2021, 13:10
  #853 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...hina-bk5n9b68c

US Senate unveils bipartisan plan to counter global influence of China

United States senators have unveiled wide-ranging plans to confront China by beefing up the American military in the Pacific, cracking down on intellectual property theft and enhancing support for Taiwan.

The draft Strategic Competition Act of 2021 is a rare bipartisan initiative designed to counter China’s rising global influence. It reflects toughened attitudes towards Beijing among Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

The 280-page draft calls on the Pentagon to strengthen military ties with allies in the Indo-Pacific region in the face of Beijing’s military modernisation and expansion.

It calls for an enhanced partnership with Taiwan, which China regards as its own and which the US at present supports but without officially recognising. The bill states that Taiwan is “vital” to US strategic interests and that there should be no limits on American officials’ interactions with their Taiwanese counterparts.

This is in keeping with a lifting of restrictions governing official contacts with Taiwan under the Trump administration.

The draft legislation, drawn up by the Senate foreign relations committee, also calls on the White House and state department to advocate and actively advance Taiwan’s participation in the UN and other international bodies, as well as to promote democracy in Hong Kong.

The bill would also allow for further sanctions on Chinese officials in relation to abuses against the minority Muslim Uighur population in Xinjiang.

On the economic front, the bill would require the secretary of state to issue a list each year of Chinese state-owned companies that have benefited from intellectual property theft that hurt American companies.....

The foreign relations committee plans to debate the draft legislation next week.

Bob Menendez, the Democratic chairman of the committee, said it was the first significant proposal to bring Democrats and Republicans together in laying out a strategic approach towards Beijing. The aim was to show the US was ready and capable of competing with China across all dimensions of national and international power for decades to come, he said.

“I am confident that this effort has the necessary support to be overwhelmingly approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee next week and the full Senate shortly thereafter,” he said.
Machiavelli had a maxim 'never do your enemy a slight injury'. I wish these legislators had heard of it.
It is just incoherent to force feed Chinese industry thanks to our huge stimulus spending, which is causing a huge shipping shortage for goods from China, while simultaneously reacting to Chinese expansion with pinprick sanctions that are ineffectual but annoying.
A 200% tariff on Chinese goods, similar to what China put on Australian wine, might have a more perceptible impact and would show serious concern.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 11:43
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It's a bit hard to crack down on intellectual theft when it's already been stolen. Cat and bag as well as bolting horses spring to mind.

China has to be held accountable IMHO but as alluded to above (and I've enjoyed reading all) it's not so easy.

What would Churchill have made of this? I suspect I know....
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 17:01
  #855 (permalink)  
 
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"200% tariff on Chinese goods,"

Boy that would hurt Apple etc pretty badly - I can hear the screams now
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 17:26
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...merican-empire

Niall Ferguson (see the link) has a pretty good article on the elephant in the room - what about Taiwan? - that has remained an open question between the US and China for over 50 years. In the meantime, Taiwan has carved out a niche in the global economic system.
Mr Biden will be tested, and the question is (for me): was the "pivot to the Pacific" too late when President Obama finally made it an overt aspect of American policy? (For my money, GHW Bush was far too optim1istic in his "after the wall came down" assessment of the Pacific Rim). I spent a lot of years grinding my teeth at what I saw as willful negligence ... (rant cancelled).

Seventh Fleet is going to have a busy AO for a long time to come: flying, sailing, and submarining.

Interesting, to me, to see how Mr Duterte is playing his piece of the game. Does he think that the Chinese dragon will eat him, the Philippine bison, last?
Staying in theme, I can’t help but laugh at the author characterizing Pompeo as a fox. The two largest economies in the world, locked in a quasi cold war can’t be defined by the singular issue of Taiwan.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 21:30
  #857 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"200% tariff on Chinese goods,"

Boy that would hurt Apple etc pretty badly - I can hear the screams now
Exactly true.
Withdrawal is a painful therapy for the addiction to cheap Chinese goods which is killing Western industry.
Sadly no Western politician has the stature to make that happen. Newt Gingrich, when asked many years ago, said there would be a revolt if that were done.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 23:16
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A 200 percent tariff on cheap Chinese goods would see many major retailers go under.
Our equivalent of B&Q/Home Depot, Bunnings, gets a huge amount of its stock from China.
Often not easily identifiable until you read the fine print.
Suspect it's the same across many sectors.
And that's not even addressing the component parts issue.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 00:55
  #859 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
A 200 percent tariff on cheap Chinese goods would see many major retailers go under.
Our equivalent of B&Q/Home Depot, Bunnings, gets a huge amount of its stock from China.
Often not easily identifiable until you read the fine print.
Suspect it's the same across many sectors.
And that's not even addressing the component parts issue.
Doubtless true. Addiction is painfully hard to shake.
Think it must be done, else our children will be Chinese serfs, but kids don't vote.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 07:18
  #860 (permalink)  
 
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"Think it must be done, else our children will be Chinese serfs, but kids don't vote."

At various times since 1850 different countries have been the worlds main exporter of goods - the UK 1850 -1890, Germany 1890-1910, USA 1910 -2010, China 2010 - none of them finished up "enslaving" the whole world

I'd put my money on India to replace China eventually and then Brazil & Nigeria beyond that
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