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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 16th Jun 2024, 11:59
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https://www.twz.com/air/mockups-of-c...ibious-warship

Mockups Of China’s Sharp Sword Stealth Drone Appear Near New Supersized Amphibious Warship

Evidence continues to grow that stealthy GJ-11 Sharp Sword is bound for the decks of Chinese carriers and new amphibious assault ships.




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Old 16th Jun 2024, 11:59
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What do you think the result and cost would be? When do we do what's right, rather than what is in our own self interest?In February 2016, the Government said: "The long standing position of Her Majesty’s Government is that we do not recognise Taiwan as a state. The 1972 Joint Communique between the United Kingdom and China set out that: ‘The UK acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is a province of the People’s Republic of China and recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China’."

That's a disgraceful use of weasel-words. And things have changed. The same Government statement went on to say that: "The United Kingdom believes that the Taiwan issue should be resolved through dialogue, in line with the views of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait."

Dialogue clearly isn't working.
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Old 16th Jun 2024, 12:30
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https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...a-border-river

China eyes Sea of Japan access via Russia-North Korea border river

Proposal raises security concerns for Tokyo as Chinese maritime activity ramps up

BEIJING -- China, Russia and North Korea are expected to start discussions soon about allowing ships to navigate a border river into the Sea of Japan, which could have major security implications for Tokyo.

The waterway, the Tumen River, flows east along the border of China and North Korea, and eventually also of Russia, before emptying into the Sea of Japan.

Chinese vessels can currently only freely navigate the river until the village of Fangchuan, on the eastern end of landlocked Jilin province. Permission is required from both Russia and North Korea to navigate the remaining 15-kilometer stretch to the Sea of Japan. A Soviet-era, 7-meter-tall bridge also blocks the passage of larger vessels.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin included in a joint statement following a summit last month a mention that the countries will engage in a "constructive dialogue" with North Korea about the Tumen River.

China historically held the area until the Russian Empire took control in the 1860s. China has repeatedly urged Russia and North Korea to allow Chinese vessels to navigate the river to the Sea of Japan, proposing the creation of a special economic zone along its banks.

Russia used to be reluctant on the idea, concerned that it would increase China's influence in Northeast Asia. But its attitude is changing as the power dynamic between Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang shifts.

Russia has grown increasingly dependent on China for trade amid Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Energy exports to China have increased since the start of the Ukraine war. Moscow also relies on China for electronic components and automobiles, and imports from China increased to 37% of the total in 2023 from 22% before the war.

Sanctions have also brought Russia and North Korea closer together. North Korea has supplied artillery shells and other weaponry to Russia.

Zhao Leji, who ranks third in the Chinese Communist Party hierarchy, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang in April.

North Korea will likely agree to engage in talks regarding the Tumen River, according to Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China. Wang advocated for Chinese vessels to be able to navigate the river at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, last year.

China is considering widening the Tumen in its lower reaches and demolishing the bridge with Russian and North Korean approval. Allowing larger vessels to navigate through "will facilitate the cheaper transport of Chinese supplies by sea and promote economic exchanges with northeastern Asia, including Japan and South Korea," Wang said.

The change could also significantly affect security in the region.

Chisako Masuo, a professor researching Chinese foreign policy at Kyushu University in Fukuoka, Japan, said the larger vessels China hopes to navigate directly to the Sea of Japan include coast guard patrol ships.

The Japan Coast Guard is currently scrambling to keep up with increased activity by Chinese government vessels in waters near the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, claimed by China as the Diaoyu. On Friday, four China Coast Guard ships equipped with what appeared to be machine guns had apparently entered Japan's territorial waters at around the same time.

"If China Coast Guard ships become active in the Sea of Japan, Japan will need to divert its own coast guard vessels that are currently monitoring waters near the Senkaku Islands," Masuo said.

"It could weaken monitoring in the East China Sea," she said.

Xi and Putin's joint statement also outlined plans for expanded joint military drills and joint sea and air patrols.

Chinese and Russian forces have engaged in joint maritime and air drills in the Sea of Japan. An increased presence by the China Coast Guard, which essentially functions as a second navy, could expand the scope of such activities in the area.



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Old 17th Jun 2024, 08:24
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For the 2nd time this month, China dispatched an amphibious warship to the South China Sea, “in preparation for any emergency response”

A Type 075 landing helicopter dock was spotted for the 1st time at Sabina Shoal, following a Type 071 amphibious transport dock detected 3 June.
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Old 17th Jun 2024, 17:46
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Originally Posted by Jackonicko
What do you think the result and cost would be? When do we do what's right, rather than what is in our own self interest?In February 2016, the Government said: "The long standing position of Her Majesty’s Government is that we do not recognise Taiwan as a state. The 1972 Joint Communique between the United Kingdom and China set out that: ‘The UK acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is a province of the People’s Republic of China and recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China’."

That's a disgraceful use of weasel-words. And things have changed. The same Government statement went on to say that: "The United Kingdom believes that the Taiwan issue should be resolved through dialogue, in line with the views of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait."

Dialogue clearly isn't working.
that's been the case for over 50 years.

It recognised the position at the time which that both the mainland AND Taiwan claimed there was only "one China" - the Brits didn't make it up - the Chinese (both sets) did. There never were any substantive talks about reunification IIRC. Taiwan is now drifting towards breaking the link - Beijing will not stand for that. I can't see many people in the UK or Europe wanting to go to war on that basis.
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Old 17th Jun 2024, 21:33
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I don't think that recognising Taiwan would be a Casus Belli. Indeed if more nations followed suit it might restabilise the situation.
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Old 18th Jun 2024, 06:41
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Turns out the Chinese Coast Guard attack yesterday against the Filipino resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre in the 2nd Thomas Shoal was more aggressive than initially thought.

They overpowered the Filipino military personnel on one of the boats and confiscated the crew’s firearms.

A Filipino sailor lost host finger and many more were wounded from water cannons and Chinese ramming operations.

The Chinese Coast Guard towed one the Filipino boats away and stopped all 4 from resupplying the Filipino crew on the Sierra Madre….
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Old 18th Jun 2024, 15:56
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Has the USMC adopted a tactically and strategically flawed concept in its reorganization and mission reset decisions?

Is the Chinese action against the Philippine crews symbolic of what awaits small USMC units stationed upon small isolated islands should hostilities kick off between the Chinese and Allied Forces?

https://www.realcleardefense.com/art...e_1038257.html

Last edited by SASless; 18th Jun 2024 at 22:20.
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Old 19th Jun 2024, 12:29
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https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/china-...rmed-conflict/

China-Philippines one step closer to armed conflict

Latest collision harms Philippine sailors and raises question of how much Chinese aggression it will take for the US to intervene
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Old 19th Jun 2024, 12:31
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Old 19th Jun 2024, 15:21
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https://warontherocks.com/2024/06/th...nt-barked-yet/

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DOG THAT HASN’T BARKED … YET
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Old 21st Jun 2024, 15:55
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https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/us-rep...-thomas-shoal/

US reputation on the line at Second Thomas Shoal

US credibility will be in tatters if Washington fails to defend its Philippine mutual defense treaty ally against Chinese aggression

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Old 22nd Jun 2024, 07:15
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I don't think the US will go to war with China over arguments about a reef in the S China Sea where no US servicemen are involved and no direct US economic interest
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Old 24th Jun 2024, 11:39
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The official WeiBo account of China's Ministry of Public Security openly mocks Filipinos as monkeys after the recent conflict between the Chinese coast guard and the Philippines.

Much thanks to @jenniferzeng97 for finding the WeiBo posting and adding English translations to the screenshot.

Myself, I received many replies from Chinese accounts depicting Filipinos as monkeys, so this is not an isolated incident. I also recall Africans being depicted as monkeys by some Chinese people.


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Old 24th Jun 2024, 17:04
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
I don't think the US will go to war with China over arguments about a reef in the S China Sea where no US servicemen are involved and no direct US economic interest
For you to presume that there is no US economic interest in the SCS is an error. Trade with that general region is becoming more important, not less, and has been so for about a decade.
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Old 25th Jun 2024, 02:07
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The official WeiBo account of China's Ministry of Public Security openly mocks Filipinos as monkeys after the recent conflict between the Chinese coast guard and the Philippines.

Much thanks to @jenniferzeng97 for finding the WeiBo posting and adding English translations to the screenshot.

Myself, I received many replies from Chinese accounts depicting Filipinos as monkeys, so this is not an isolated incident. I also recall Africans being depicted as monkeys by some Chinese people.


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You are wrong.
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Old 25th Jun 2024, 02:09
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
I don't think the US will go to war with China over arguments about a reef in the S China Sea where no US servicemen are involved and no direct US economic interest
Sorry, I meant Asturias 56 was wrong.
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Old 25th Jun 2024, 06:27
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For 5 days in a row, 4 Chinese Coast Guard ships have repeatedly entered the 12-mile territorial limit around Japan’s Senkaku islands

CCG “drove away & expelled” Japanese patrol boats & have been spotted sailing within Japan’s EEZ for 186 days straight, the longest record ever…..

​​​​​​​https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...881965519.html
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Old 26th Jun 2024, 15:23
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Yesterday, a WZ-7 “Soaring Dragon” high-altitude surveillance drone of the Chinese People's Liberation Army was detected having violated the South Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) near Jeju Island to the south.

It is believed the drone was attempting to observe the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), which is currently docked in the South Korean City of Busan.


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Old 26th Jun 2024, 15:39
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VW subsiduary MAN Energy Solutions wants to sell off its gas turbine business to Chinese CSIC Longjiang. The latter notably manufactures gas turbines for PLAN surface combatants.

Several German government ministries oppose the deal and try to prevent it.

​​​​​​​https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik...100045950.html
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