No cats and flaps ...... back to F35B?
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Bastardeux,
I think you have valid points and some will always fall on either side of the fence as regards the carrier debate.
Interesting to me, though, given your figures of 15 billion for (both?) QEC carriers and 6 F35B is the price tag for Typhoon - which you would buy instead.
The NAO quotes 20 billion down and 17 billion more to come, for Typhoon, and IRRC we can field 16 (FE@R might have gone up - admittedly, but with a total buy of 160 I can't see it getting much above 30 or so) and they aren't going to be fully up to spec until 2018.
That seems like a hideous cost for what we actually get given that the F-3 was more than capable of providing homeland security and Falklands QRA.
But anyway, it's a knock F-35B and carriers in the main thread, not a 'golly how the Typhoon's crippled us' thread - so I do apologise, but I think we need to compare like with like.
I think you have valid points and some will always fall on either side of the fence as regards the carrier debate.
Interesting to me, though, given your figures of 15 billion for (both?) QEC carriers and 6 F35B is the price tag for Typhoon - which you would buy instead.
The NAO quotes 20 billion down and 17 billion more to come, for Typhoon, and IRRC we can field 16 (FE@R might have gone up - admittedly, but with a total buy of 160 I can't see it getting much above 30 or so) and they aren't going to be fully up to spec until 2018.
That seems like a hideous cost for what we actually get given that the F-3 was more than capable of providing homeland security and Falklands QRA.
But anyway, it's a knock F-35B and carriers in the main thread, not a 'golly how the Typhoon's crippled us' thread - so I do apologise, but I think we need to compare like with like.
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Yeah but Tiffin does mighty good air displays at BOTH shows it deploys to and it makes a senior hoccifer go all wet that we have an aircraft to supercriuse.....
No Dave, no Boats (Yet) and a bill going upwards faster than a paniced new dad on a mothercare spree.....
place your bets as to which ever version we get - I reckon the lot gets canned and we spend the threepence we save on lager for chavs....
Oh and funding t'barons new pool house
No Dave, no Boats (Yet) and a bill going upwards faster than a paniced new dad on a mothercare spree.....
place your bets as to which ever version we get - I reckon the lot gets canned and we spend the threepence we save on lager for chavs....
Oh and funding t'barons new pool house
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Orca, I agree with the thrust of your argument completely, if I had been CAS back when the decision was made, I would like to have told BAe to find someone else to bankroll them and we'd all be flying Strike Eagles, in large numbers, right now. My point is that we're about to make the exact same mistake again...crippling every other element of the military for a jet that is almost 100%, at this point, not going to be working when we get it or anywhere near the initial budget. For me, the F35 is going to have the same storyline, but even more frustrating and with fewer numbers.
And your point that Typhoon won't be getting up to spec until 2018...right when we're scraping 1/3 of them to pay for the gold-plated wonderjet - that will still be a developmental aircraft - further reinforces my point that we should be making the most out of Typhoon while it's a good jet and then replace half of them with the F35 after 2020...once the JSF begins to get up to spec.
We need to get out of the mindset that by having the JSF in 2015, we're somehow going to be a supreme air power that is capable of taking on the world, when in fact we're crippling ourselves for a non-existent capability. Don't get me wrong, I'm fully convinced the F35 will eventually become a war-winner that we should buy eventually, but we shouldn't be destroying everything it's taken us decades to develop, from challengers to Nimrods, for the sake of a jet in its extreme infancy.
And your point that Typhoon won't be getting up to spec until 2018...right when we're scraping 1/3 of them to pay for the gold-plated wonderjet - that will still be a developmental aircraft - further reinforces my point that we should be making the most out of Typhoon while it's a good jet and then replace half of them with the F35 after 2020...once the JSF begins to get up to spec.
We need to get out of the mindset that by having the JSF in 2015, we're somehow going to be a supreme air power that is capable of taking on the world, when in fact we're crippling ourselves for a non-existent capability. Don't get me wrong, I'm fully convinced the F35 will eventually become a war-winner that we should buy eventually, but we shouldn't be destroying everything it's taken us decades to develop, from challengers to Nimrods, for the sake of a jet in its extreme infancy.
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Don't disagree with what you're saying. Only a few weeks ago I thought it made sense to buy or lease a few F-18E and wait for Gen 5 to mature. But that still involved a single boat which never made sense and a conversion cost which was dreamt up by someone on crack.
As regards navies. My (very own) opinion is that if you want to be one of the big boys you need a nuclear deterrent. If you want to be one of the big boys and relevant you need a nuclear deterrent and carriers.
£5 billion isn't that big a price tag for the carrier bit if that's what you want.
If you want to be a relevant air power you just need some decent aeroplanes - which come in at less than £37 billion for a deployable total that gets bigger than 20.
I am gradually persuaded by experts such as SSSEOWTF, ICBM etc that STOVL F-35 'ain't that bad', in fact I think it's going to be pretty special, but for the total cost of the systems involved I would have liked to see a CV capability.
So I think we're getting a reasonable capability, for which the price is high, but for a small island nation with worldwide repsonsibilities and delusions I think we're somewhere on the right lines.
I dread to think what our forces would look like if we'd bought F-15E, F-18E and a USN CVN...somewhat less dismal I would imagine.
Still, when we're not paying through the nose for Typhoon we're being quoted astronomical prices for conversions of a supposedly eminently convertible design...there is a common theme here!
As regards navies. My (very own) opinion is that if you want to be one of the big boys you need a nuclear deterrent. If you want to be one of the big boys and relevant you need a nuclear deterrent and carriers.
£5 billion isn't that big a price tag for the carrier bit if that's what you want.
If you want to be a relevant air power you just need some decent aeroplanes - which come in at less than £37 billion for a deployable total that gets bigger than 20.
I am gradually persuaded by experts such as SSSEOWTF, ICBM etc that STOVL F-35 'ain't that bad', in fact I think it's going to be pretty special, but for the total cost of the systems involved I would have liked to see a CV capability.
So I think we're getting a reasonable capability, for which the price is high, but for a small island nation with worldwide repsonsibilities and delusions I think we're somewhere on the right lines.
I dread to think what our forces would look like if we'd bought F-15E, F-18E and a USN CVN...somewhat less dismal I would imagine.
Still, when we're not paying through the nose for Typhoon we're being quoted astronomical prices for conversions of a supposedly eminently convertible design...there is a common theme here!
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You're right, with its radar etc. etc. it will be a good aircraft when it comes up to spec, but that doesn't change the fact that we're buying the most expensive and arguably the least capable variant, both to purchase and to fly.
The price, for me, is too high and I think by trying to achieve the very goal of reasonable capability for protecting worldwide interests, we're actually painting ourselves into a corner and achieving the opposite, with far too few assets to do anything at all.
The dutch seem to be with me!
Dutch plans to buy F-35 fighter jets in doubt
The price, for me, is too high and I think by trying to achieve the very goal of reasonable capability for protecting worldwide interests, we're actually painting ourselves into a corner and achieving the opposite, with far too few assets to do anything at all.
The dutch seem to be with me!
Dutch plans to buy F-35 fighter jets in doubt
Forgive me if it's been asked/pondered before, but I can't help but wonder what the americans would have charged us for a refitted carrier of theirs, a bunch of new f-18's and a smattering of E2's etc.
Assuming that the USN would even countenance such a thing, the only carriers they have that aren't CVN are the old Forrestal & Kitty Hawk classes. Mostly built in the 50 and 60s, worked very hard through life and even after life extension refits in the 80s & 90s they were beginning to fall apart. JFK was allegedly a wreck towards the end of her commissioned service which ended nearly six year ago. It also assumes that we could find 2500+ matelots to run the ship on top of any FAA complement.
If you're thinking CVN - dream on, we can hardly get enough qualified kettle watchers for the boats and we'd again be in the same position wrt life expired, knackered ships with huge manning requirements.
As far as back-fitting EMALS / EARS later in life is concerned, it should be possible, it will be merely a question of money. Compared to the rebuild of Vic (stripped down to the hangar deck and rebuilt - literally) or Eagle and Ark, the configuration changes required should not be massively demanding. QE has a significant margin allowance for weight growth - equivalent in weight to "a number" of frigates being welded to the hangar deck - another reason why a large design is more sustainable through life.
Doing this in a refit as opposed to at build will almost certainly be more expensive, but there you go. The "adaptable" design was always meant to be big enough to switch variants if required - and it is. Imagine how difficult a "CVS on steroids" type ship would have been to convert to a CTOL configuration had F35B been canned (you'd end up starting again, from scratch). However, the timing of such a switch would always affect the price, the later you do it, the more drawing and equipment changes are required, never mind undoing work done already.
Nevertheless and without wishing to re-open the debate - it's done and we need to get on with getting the ships completed and as many F35 as we can get (definitely more than 6!) worked up and available - the actual content of the conversion has never been satisfactorily explained. Given that the cost of the hardware was reasonably well known (~£500M) it is still difficult to see how the remainder of the "conversion cost" (~£1.5Bn) adds up. As noted ad nauseum, it's somewhere between 12 and 20 million manhours depending on how expensive you think a manhour is and I just can't envisage how that would be needed to fabricate troughs, add local stiffening, run cables and control, inspect, test and commission etc.
It may be that there is a big nasty lurking there which I'm not aware of, but I'm b8ggered if I can think of anything that would have that sort of impact.
One thing that will be certain. If and when it comes to back-fitting such a system twenty-years from now, the risks and requirements should be a lot lower, even if the physical work content may be higher.
Assuming that the USN would even countenance such a thing, the only carriers they have that aren't CVN are the old Forrestal & Kitty Hawk classes. Mostly built in the 50 and 60s, worked very hard through life and even after life extension refits in the 80s & 90s they were beginning to fall apart. JFK was allegedly a wreck towards the end of her commissioned service which ended nearly six year ago. It also assumes that we could find 2500+ matelots to run the ship on top of any FAA complement.
If you're thinking CVN - dream on, we can hardly get enough qualified kettle watchers for the boats and we'd again be in the same position wrt life expired, knackered ships with huge manning requirements.
As far as back-fitting EMALS / EARS later in life is concerned, it should be possible, it will be merely a question of money. Compared to the rebuild of Vic (stripped down to the hangar deck and rebuilt - literally) or Eagle and Ark, the configuration changes required should not be massively demanding. QE has a significant margin allowance for weight growth - equivalent in weight to "a number" of frigates being welded to the hangar deck - another reason why a large design is more sustainable through life.
Doing this in a refit as opposed to at build will almost certainly be more expensive, but there you go. The "adaptable" design was always meant to be big enough to switch variants if required - and it is. Imagine how difficult a "CVS on steroids" type ship would have been to convert to a CTOL configuration had F35B been canned (you'd end up starting again, from scratch). However, the timing of such a switch would always affect the price, the later you do it, the more drawing and equipment changes are required, never mind undoing work done already.
Nevertheless and without wishing to re-open the debate - it's done and we need to get on with getting the ships completed and as many F35 as we can get (definitely more than 6!) worked up and available - the actual content of the conversion has never been satisfactorily explained. Given that the cost of the hardware was reasonably well known (~£500M) it is still difficult to see how the remainder of the "conversion cost" (~£1.5Bn) adds up. As noted ad nauseum, it's somewhere between 12 and 20 million manhours depending on how expensive you think a manhour is and I just can't envisage how that would be needed to fabricate troughs, add local stiffening, run cables and control, inspect, test and commission etc.
It may be that there is a big nasty lurking there which I'm not aware of, but I'm b8ggered if I can think of anything that would have that sort of impact.
One thing that will be certain. If and when it comes to back-fitting such a system twenty-years from now, the risks and requirements should be a lot lower, even if the physical work content may be higher.
Last edited by Not_a_boffin; 6th Jul 2012 at 10:23.
2 thoughts from a total outsider:
If NAB is correct and we couldn't scrape together
to man a Kittyhawk class boat, who is going to man both QE boats at c 3000 between them?
If F-35 is a stealthy aircraft why are we bothered about overflight of neutral nations? They presumably would be none the wiser, unless the F-35 is not stealthy, which begs the question; why buy it?
If NAB is correct and we couldn't scrape together
2500+ matelots
If F-35 is a stealthy aircraft why are we bothered about overflight of neutral nations? They presumably would be none the wiser, unless the F-35 is not stealthy, which begs the question; why buy it?
HQ
Each QE requires something less than 800 matelots to run the ship as opposed to US CV/CVN which need 2500+. Both figures exclude the CAG which is projected as 7-800 for UK and is usually about 3000 for the US.
F35 is only fully stealthy at night. Mk1 mod 0 eyeball will be capable of identifying it given the right optics. Violation of third-party territory is something that will land you in the UNSC bad-boys corner in fairly short order if caught. The BBC and John Simpson might get a bit upset and self-righteous about that.......
Each QE requires something less than 800 matelots to run the ship as opposed to US CV/CVN which need 2500+. Both figures exclude the CAG which is projected as 7-800 for UK and is usually about 3000 for the US.
F35 is only fully stealthy at night. Mk1 mod 0 eyeball will be capable of identifying it given the right optics. Violation of third-party territory is something that will land you in the UNSC bad-boys corner in fairly short order if caught. The BBC and John Simpson might get a bit upset and self-righteous about that.......
Suspicion breeds confidence
Its also not all-angle stealth. They might not see you on the way in but they would on the way out. Plus that big tailpipe would make a juicy IR target.
Thank you for your answers.
NAB I did use the figure of 3000 between the two boats and I still fail to see where that manpower is to come from.
Navaleye, won't the target nation also see you on the way out, they may even be more alert because the boat is within striking distance (I believe c700 miles for F35B)?
NAB I did use the figure of 3000 between the two boats and I still fail to see where that manpower is to come from.
Navaleye, won't the target nation also see you on the way out, they may even be more alert because the boat is within striking distance (I believe c700 miles for F35B)?
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They won't be active at the same time as a matter of course. But the UK will be able to now generate a full time capability - the ships will cover each others refit periods. Much like the Albion LPDs will be run. Clearly it would be a great idea for the RNR to train for these two capital ships to ensure that they could be regenerated quickly if required.
I guess it very roughly works like this:
Before SDR availability was 150%
After SDR it was 75%
After 2015 it may be 100%
As QE will also need to supply the UKs LPH capability, I personally think the U turn was worth it if it gets the UK that crucial 100%
I guess it very roughly works like this:
Before SDR availability was 150%
After SDR it was 75%
After 2015 it may be 100%
As QE will also need to supply the UKs LPH capability, I personally think the U turn was worth it if it gets the UK that crucial 100%
Suspicion breeds confidence
1SL has stated that with pool of just 30,000 sailors he won't have the manpower to manpower for 2 carriers except in an emergency. The idea is to rotate them and that is what will happen.
The interesting question is what will the RAF use to replace the GR4. Given that we have just spent the family silver on Voyager. I suspect it will probably end up being a mixed order over time for B (first) followed by A. We will see.
The interesting question is what will the RAF use to replace the GR4. Given that we have just spent the family silver on Voyager. I suspect it will probably end up being a mixed order over time for B (first) followed by A. We will see.
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Interesting post Navaleye and having crews to man a ship in an emergency would to me indicate waffle....
In this so called emergency does that mean our illustrious First Sea Lord would
'Rob Peter, to pay Paul?'
In other words take sailors from the rest of our mini or minuscule fleet to man these ships?
In this so called emergency does that mean our illustrious First Sea Lord would
'Rob Peter, to pay Paul?'
In other words take sailors from the rest of our mini or minuscule fleet to man these ships?
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Navaleye,
I suspect you are spot on, as is Glojo.
Nothing is all-aspect stealth, not even a RAM-coated rugby ball, it is about 'how much stealth do I need'. The combat edge that sufficient stealth brings is part of the allure of 5th Gen but not all of it. Now add in the phenomenal SA, networked everything, jaw-dropping weapons capabilities and the potential for as-yet-untold growth and you start to appreciate why the UK should be in that game. It costs to be in, it is sometimes frustrating and many rightfully ask 'why' but the US/Brit relationship is a big factor in this programme through choice. Pulling out cuts off not just our own noses but that of others. It will drive cost up even more and introduce more risk where enough exists.
Just an opinion.
I suspect you are spot on, as is Glojo.
Nothing is all-aspect stealth, not even a RAM-coated rugby ball, it is about 'how much stealth do I need'. The combat edge that sufficient stealth brings is part of the allure of 5th Gen but not all of it. Now add in the phenomenal SA, networked everything, jaw-dropping weapons capabilities and the potential for as-yet-untold growth and you start to appreciate why the UK should be in that game. It costs to be in, it is sometimes frustrating and many rightfully ask 'why' but the US/Brit relationship is a big factor in this programme through choice. Pulling out cuts off not just our own noses but that of others. It will drive cost up even more and introduce more risk where enough exists.
Just an opinion.
They won't be active at the same time as a matter of course. But the UK will be able to now generate a full time capability - the ships will cover each others refit periods. Much like the Albion LPDs will be run. Clearly it would be a great idea for the RNR to train for these two capital ships to ensure that they could be regenerated quickly if required.
As QE will also need to supply the UKs LPH capability, I personally think the U turn was worth it if it gets the UK that crucial 100%
Last edited by WE Branch Fanatic; 14th Jul 2012 at 11:49.
In this so called emergency does that mean our illustrious First Sea Lord would
'Rob Peter, to pay Paul?'
'Rob Peter, to pay Paul?'
Worry about the ensuing mess after the emergency.
That was always how the third CVS and its CAG was designed to be manned, even in the days when 'committed to NATO' actually meant something.
N
ICBM -
Now add in the phenomenal SA
If and when the DAS and HMD all work. The last time I saw a DAS relative operating, it was trying to shoot down clouds and the odd bird and couldn't see a 737 a klick away.
, networked everything,
Like an in-service Gripen?
jaw-dropping weapons capabilities
Superior to those of anything out there today, exactly how?
and the potential for as-yet-untold growth
Hopefully more so, and more affordably than LockMart's last fighter product, which may get self-targeting of multiple SDBs, AIM-120D and AIM-9X late in this decade at a double-digit-billion price tag.
They do have great PowerPoints, though.
Now add in the phenomenal SA
If and when the DAS and HMD all work. The last time I saw a DAS relative operating, it was trying to shoot down clouds and the odd bird and couldn't see a 737 a klick away.
, networked everything,
Like an in-service Gripen?
jaw-dropping weapons capabilities
Superior to those of anything out there today, exactly how?
and the potential for as-yet-untold growth
Hopefully more so, and more affordably than LockMart's last fighter product, which may get self-targeting of multiple SDBs, AIM-120D and AIM-9X late in this decade at a double-digit-billion price tag.
They do have great PowerPoints, though.
Bengo
I like your thinking, However, two things come to mind that may be a spanner in the works. Firstly, the RN is much smaller now that it was in 1982, with fewer sailors and shore establishments, and training posts increasingly filled by civilian personnel. Secondly, the ships that went south in 1982 were manned in the most part by their normal crews. Augmenting the ships company of a frigate, or forming a naval party aboard a STUFT vessel is one thing, forming an entire crew is a quite different challenge.
Presumably this would have made use of personnel who has served aboard a CVS before? This seems to be another argument for doing something to continue embarking fixed wing aircraft this decade, so that those skills continue to exist.
You would hope that things that were judged too difficult or too costly in peacetime would become possible in wartime, but are we still able to innovate and think outside of the box?
The First Sea Lord recently discussed the carrier issue, according to Pompey news:
Navy boss warns aircraft carriers are ‘vital’
I like your thinking, However, two things come to mind that may be a spanner in the works. Firstly, the RN is much smaller now that it was in 1982, with fewer sailors and shore establishments, and training posts increasingly filled by civilian personnel. Secondly, the ships that went south in 1982 were manned in the most part by their normal crews. Augmenting the ships company of a frigate, or forming a naval party aboard a STUFT vessel is one thing, forming an entire crew is a quite different challenge.
That was always how the third CVS and its CAG was designed to be manned, even in the days when 'committed to NATO' actually meant something.
You would hope that things that were judged too difficult or too costly in peacetime would become possible in wartime, but are we still able to innovate and think outside of the box?
The First Sea Lord recently discussed the carrier issue, according to Pompey news:
Navy boss warns aircraft carriers are ‘vital’
Admiral Stanhope pointed out that before HMS Ark Royal and the Harrier jets were axed in 2010, the UK’s aircraft carriers were used almost every year since the Second World War.
He said: ‘For the UK, the year 1989 is instructive. I say that, not because it was the year the Berlin Wall came down, but because it was the only year between 1945 and 2010 that the UK did not deploy her carriers in support of her national interests.’
He added: ‘To put it simply, countries that aspire to strategic international influence have aircraft carriers and countries that have them, use them.
‘Air power from the sea was an important part of our national story last century and it will continue to be a vital part of our national story this century.’
He said: ‘For the UK, the year 1989 is instructive. I say that, not because it was the year the Berlin Wall came down, but because it was the only year between 1945 and 2010 that the UK did not deploy her carriers in support of her national interests.’
He added: ‘To put it simply, countries that aspire to strategic international influence have aircraft carriers and countries that have them, use them.
‘Air power from the sea was an important part of our national story last century and it will continue to be a vital part of our national story this century.’
Last edited by WE Branch Fanatic; 10th Jul 2012 at 22:41.
WEBF,
I find myself in agreement with you. The UK needs its carriers AND ALL THE STUFF THAT GOES WITH THEM. So we need the manning, the right aircraft and the right warships to go with them.
Would you argue that the it should be the very best aircraft available? So, -C. Build up the manning in good time to build the new fleet. Keep the build going for the Ds and Fs, counter mine, AEW, various helos, etc, etc.
Most of that is not my territory, obviously. But for God's sake, get the right air on those decks.
I find myself in agreement with you. The UK needs its carriers AND ALL THE STUFF THAT GOES WITH THEM. So we need the manning, the right aircraft and the right warships to go with them.
Would you argue that the it should be the very best aircraft available? So, -C. Build up the manning in good time to build the new fleet. Keep the build going for the Ds and Fs, counter mine, AEW, various helos, etc, etc.
Most of that is not my territory, obviously. But for God's sake, get the right air on those decks.