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Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

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Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

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Old 23rd Jan 2012, 21:49
  #381 (permalink)  
 
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Whilst no doubt I'll be added to a blacklist for asking this question, what is the key difficulty in building a nuclear weapon? What is the tripping point which stops countries like Iran shipping them out one by one?

Is it the materials? The knowledge?

I've always imagined it would be the fission material, but I'm probably wrong.
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Old 23rd Jan 2012, 22:42
  #382 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Finningley Boy
PTT,

Now that sounds like a satisfactory outcome. Next question, will Tehran treat America and Israel with any respect at all?

FB
To a point (i.e. the point at which they start to lose out), yes, because then everybody is in the club then. Realpolitik again.
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Old 23rd Jan 2012, 22:44
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If the war-mongering 'see u next tuesdays' in the US start one, then there'll be one- whether the people of the US wish it or no.
I'll hazard a guess that, other than maybe a two week holiday at Disney in Florida, you have no experience whatsoever of the people of America... Prove me wrong.
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Old 23rd Jan 2012, 23:13
  #384 (permalink)  
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The latest update is that we will have 3 RN ships in theatre, 2 X T23, 1 X T45. Excellent surface, sub surface and AAW capabilities. What should happen is this:

The Iranians should be told that if they attempt to block Hormuz, their coastal oil installations including Kharg Island and their off shore units will be destroyed without prior warning by the navy. Well up to the job. If we take out their oil infrastructure then they are screwed for years and the regime will collapse.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 00:23
  #385 (permalink)  
 
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Shy Talk.....Vietnam in the mid...late Sixties and early 70's would have been much more exciting. We rang the bell....what happened?

You missed the smaller bits of the country...like Texas...Alaska...and at least we are on the map....unlike a small former island nation now part of the European mainland.

That's how much you guys care about non-Americans. It shines through every war you lose
)

Shall we put up a tally book of lost wars Shy....what say we start with the two we beat your asses in....and go from there.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 00:44
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Shy:

Most of your fellow citizens can't even find their own Country on a World map
I'm pretty sure that, in my generation every one of my countrymen can find their country on a world map. I wonder about many of the current generation though... How hard can it be to find England on a world map... After all, it's practically at the centre...

I'm a Brit sweetpea, I just don't live there any more... Not for 23 years... So your 2 week vacations don't actually impress me. You're spouting the usual British anti-yank rhetoric I hear all the time from the uninformed.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 01:13
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SASless,

"what say we start with the two we beat your asses in?"


Well, while you undoubtedly won one of them, that being the second, not entirely sure that you can claim the first. As it was a spat about taxation that escalated into a revolution, between folk who were all at the time actually British, technically we beat ourselves...

As to the second, technically you indeed did win, but you never really wupped anyone's ass now did you? It was brought to an end by a treaty, The Treaty of Ghent, and there were still vast swathes of the US occupied by the British that were only handed back as a result of the treaty.
Britain was also fighting the French at the time, a much larger almost global conflict, and regarded the US war of 1812 as a bit of a sideshow.

We became staunch allies after that Treaty. I like to think we still are.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 02:50
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I've always imagined it would be the fission material, but I'm probably wrong.

After

(a) obtaining sufficient quantity of enriched uranium or plutonium,

one must also

(b) correctly design and build the non-nuklur starter explosive package:

Little Man Atomic Bomb - Bing Images

and try to make the new baby smaller than the bomb that was dropped on Horoshima:

Models of Little Boy & Fat Man Atomic Bombs from WWII | Flickr - Photo Sharing!.

A "Little Boy" size bomb is too big for convenient terrorist smuggling or for launching atop Iran's SCUD-derived missiles. SCUDS -- not all that much technologically evolved than 1944 vintage V-2/A-4's.

It's possible that the latter-day Persians lack the techno-industrial capability to manufacture their own gunpowder, much less an A-bomb.

This Iranian A-bomb stuff may be all hype coming from both sides -- both the Iranians and the Israel lobby.

Last edited by Modern Elmo; 24th Jan 2012 at 03:01.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 06:11
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So what did the West do when Pakistan exploded their bomb ????
Pakistan (probably) reached nuclear capability in the early 1980s, the west had no realistic means at that time to destroy the nuclear capability without substantial collateral damage. Additionally, the Red Army was in Afghanistan, Pakistan was therefore the West's friend. If the West doesn't sell conventional arms to Pakistan then someone else will.

Leave. Them. Alone!
Most Americans would be only to pleased to leave the rest of the world alone, the problem is that the rest of the world will not leave the US alone (WW1, WW2, Cold War, World Trade Centre)

what is the key difficulty in building a nuclear weapon?
Resources
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 06:51
  #390 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SASless
Shy Talk.....Vietnam in the mid...late Sixties and early 70's would have been much more exciting. We rang the bell....what happened?

You missed the smaller bits of the country...like Texas...Alaska...and at least we are on the map....unlike a small former island nation now part of the European mainland.

That's how much you guys care about non-Americans. It shines through every war you lose
)

Shall we put up a tally book of lost wars Shy....what say we start with the two we beat your asses in....and go from there.
Your frustration with your inability to sustain your side of the argument is showing. Instead of taking on the points of the actual discussion you instead attempt to switch to a penis-measuring contest. This mirrors US foreign policy in many cases

The problem is that the US doesn't want a non-puppet nation with real political capability (which is what nuclear weapons actually confer) able to back up their words in an area of the world the exploitation of which the US relies on to sustain its wealth. It'll be interesting to see exactly what sort of dodgy evidence the West comes up with to justify military action. If it's the NPT then it'll be incredibly hypocritical seeing as the US (and other nuclear nations) have failed to uphold their own obligations under Article VI of the same treaty: namely, that obligation to liquidate their nuclear stockpiles and pursue complete disarmament. I don't see anyone mentioning that little issue right now, though...
Originally Posted by NPT Article VI
Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 10:17
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Shy Talk,
No-one in their right mind wants to start a war; equally the UN should not stand back and allow any more countries, especially those with religious fundamentalists in charge, to develop a nuclear device. Therefore sanctions and a united show of force are, IMO, the right way ahead.
Remember also that the Iranian religious mafia are quietly torturing and murdering thousands of Iranians who oppose them! So yes, just leave them to it, what can possibly go wrong? Uh, didn’t we do something like that in the 1930’s?
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 10:49
  #392 (permalink)  
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the UN should not stand back and allow any more countries, especially those with religious fundamentalists in charge, to develop a nuclear device.
On what basis? The NPT? Perhaps the UN should also enforce the NPT Article VI as well?

Remember also that the Iranian religious mafia are quietly torturing and murdering thousands of Iranians who oppose them! So yes, just leave them to it, what can possibly go wrong? Uh, didn’t we do something like that in the 1930’s?
Human rights is the issue now, right? Best we prepare to invade an awful lot of places.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 11:19
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Some might say that the death penalty is also a Human rights abuse!
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 11:20
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The USN has sent two carriers, cruisers, and a number of destroyers to the region. David Cameron has sent what is the left of the Royal Navy - 3 men in a boat!
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 11:57
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Shy Talk....you plainly talk silly.


On the other hand, if the country doing the abusing happens to be geopolitically important, ie has a lot of Oil, we get dreadfully, dreadfully upset about it.
We hear squat from the guvmints (yours and mine) about the Saudi's....and I would suggest there's not enough oil in Afghanistan to light up an old time miner's lantern.

Either of which completely shoot your statement squarely in the hind end!
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 12:09
  #396 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless
Shy Talk....you plainly talk silly.




We hear squat from the guvmints (yours and mine) about the Saudi's....and I would suggest there's not enough oil in Afghanistan to light up an old time miner's lantern.

Either of which completely shoot your statement squarely in the hind end!
Taken in context, as in a direct reply to an earlier post from Tramps, not so sure Shy is talking silly and you may want to check your own foot for holes.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 12:12
  #397 (permalink)  
 
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pr00ne....you are correct in part of what you say. To the degree the real whupping occurred after the treaty had been signed but the word had not gotten to the troops in the field in Louisana. Reckon you could spare some troops to chase the current occupant of the White House out of town? Just ask them not to burn it down this time though would you.

As to the Colony being British and thus a dustup between Brits....the American Indian holding first claim to the land would challenge that concept in totality. They did not control immigration to their lands and we see how that turned out. As history repeats itself....I fear what is coming in the future as a result of our current inability to control the flood of folks heading north. The fence we need to build is one that runs either side of I-35....from Mexico to Canda!

Odd how time changes things...the British have become more an ally than the French despite the assistance they provided in the creation of this country of mine.

No gratitude for past events I guess.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 12:41
  #398 (permalink)  
 
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SASless,

I would suggest there's not enough oil in Afghanistan to light up an old time miner's lantern.
One might suggest that you are somewhat incorrect in the above statement.

Afghanistan is extremely rich in minerals. The deposits are vast, and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining regions in the world. Afghanistan is one of the countries with the richest and biggest intact mines in the world.

The list of minerals includes deposits of barite, chromite, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, natural gas (444 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 562 Million barrels of natural gas liquids), petroleum (a minimum of 1.8 billion barrels in the North alone), precious and semiprecious stones, salt, sulfur, talc, and zinc. Precious and semiprecious stones include high-quality emerald, lapis lazuli, red garnet and ruby. Critical industrial metals include lithium.

Soviet Geologists, during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, carried out geological surveys and produced reports. These reports were forgotten about when the Soviets withdrew in 1989. In 2004 US geologists disovered some of the data in the library of the Afghan Geological Survey in Kabul. Further, and more detailed, geological surveys carried out have discovered additional minerals/ deposits and have allowed more accurate values placed on them.

Since 2007 China has, and continues to invest vast amounts of money in the extraction of minerals. One example is the Aynak copper mine in Logar province. China is, and will, dominate the control of mineral extraction.

It is kind of ironic that neither the US (and allies), nor the Soviet Union (as it was) will be able to profit from all their "investments" in Afghanistan. China, does, and will.

Besides political control, the mineral wealth is also another reason Iran would like to control Afghanistan. Control the minerlas and supply, control the nations that use them (and get rich).

Have a read of the following: - China’s Role in Shaping the Future of Afghanistan

Also look here: - Oil & Natural gas Viewer

Last edited by hval; 24th Jan 2012 at 13:09. Reason: Adding a link
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 13:05
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hval

Agree with what you say. I was gong to write something along the same lines.


I will add that what has really caught people's attention recently is the huge deposits of rare earth minerals / elements which are vital for modern manufacturing of technology products.

China currently controls 97% of the world rare earth minerals / elements and has put export restrictions on them, to the worry of Japan and other countries.
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Old 24th Jan 2012, 13:05
  #400 (permalink)  
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Loving the concept of a discussion on global willy waving ending up as a willy waving contest on a forum.

Thats why ultimately - we're all screwed. I'll dig my shelter.

Last edited by AR1; 24th Jan 2012 at 13:06. Reason: Grammatical Error.
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