Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

[JFZ90]

Hopefully this is all just posturing, but it is worrying what havoc they could try and inflict with their kilos.

Makes me wonder whether these may end up doing something decisive....



...Murphy would suggest its likely given this has just happened....

[rh200]

Nobody in, or out of there mind is going to premptively strike at a carrier group, unless they think that all out war is inevitable.

They immediatly loose the PR war by going first, and the obvious response is too great. I would think they would have a go if, one they where totally sure they where going to be getting a good smiting.

Or after some surgical strikes or other significant action by the US, in which case I would have thought the carrier group would not be in a vulnerable position due to the obvious risk.

Mind you there's always the chance of a good old fashioned balls up.

[SASless]

Nobody in, or out of there mind is going to premptively strike at a carrier group, unless they think that all out war is inevitable.

Errrr....ahhhhh....I am not sure I would bet the Farm on that statement...as Army Dinner Jacket and the Mullahs are not exactly playing with a full deck by any reasonble standard.

When one truly believes in this Martyrdom crap.....they instantly are playing by a completely insane set of rules!

Granted the few might find themselves dragging millions with them down that path if they happen to loose off a Nuke sometime...but then the more the merrier to them!

[alwayzinit]

A very interesting situation indeed.................with The Alwayzs x 4 sitting in the UAE!

The " And don't come back" crap from Tehran is just the response to watching the historical reaction the USN has always had to when things start getting interesting.

(USN is rather like Bruce Lee splitting his trousers before going Ninja, Must have room to move. Yeeeee huh!)

All the same I am about to raid the rainy day fund and get Mrs + 2 a break back home til the weather gets hot again and everyone mentally cools off!

As to Iran displaying their Naval Power the helo on telly, looked like a 30+ yr old UH-1 supplied by the US to the Shar flopping onto a deck t'other day...............mildly ironic.

Oh Happy New Year all !

[Mike7777777]

Even a US carrier group could not cope with an attack by 30+ small (tiny) attack boats, followed by several of those boats & 4 mini-submarines laying mines in the narrowist point of the Straight. That would effectively trap the US Fleet to be picked off at will. The crews of these small but deadly fast craft have a different mindset to us. They WILL die for their religion.

Please provide your evidence to support your claim that 30+ small boats can defeat a US carrier plus attendant support vessels.

[SASless]

Always....it was a Bell 212 if I remember the video correctly....which is almost exactly a UH-1N....which the USMC still operates as well.

The Iranians can be a bother....but it will be a short one if it comes to an all out dust up.

There are three Carrier Task groups in the area....not just the one.

Add in the USAF ability to move large numbers of aircraft to the area within just a few days....and the situation changes quickly.

I do not see the Israeli's using their Nukes....as that is a jar no one wishes to open except in self defense and then only in extremis.

[Wiley]

If I was a betting man, I'd probably be willing to lay a small wager that the Emirate of Sharjah, whether it likes it or not, by the end of the year and thanks to the USMC, may well be again in possession of the island of Abu Musa.

Currently occuppied by....?

[Biggus]

SAM,

Do you seriously consider that the USN isn't aware of the Iranian ORBAT, or that a US carrier group would place itself inside the reach of these short range attack boats if they thought there was a likelyhood of a hostile act, even a premptive one......

Still, at least the USN can thank you for pointing out the threat to them......





Also, when you say ..."I'll now leave this forum...." do you actually mean it this time?

[Mike7777777]

It's simple science old son, ..... etc

I don't recall any reports of Somalian pirates attacking a USN carrier. You don't appear to have any evidence to support your claim of the effectiveness of small craft against major USN assets and support vessels. Not even any reference to historical exercises.

As long as we've got that straight...

[Training Risky]

Is this the same SAMXXV who went on record on this forum to predict a major Israel-Iran conflict by the end of 2011...?

Where's your crystal ball now fella? Is it a bit cloudy?

Tell us the truth, you were really the Chief Clerk at RAF Little Snoring, 1958-1962, were you not?!

[StopStart]

I'm pretty sure you placed a bet with the nautical voice of reason, Tourist, and that you would never post on here again if you lost?

I suggest you make that prediction a bet.

I am willing to take that bet.


I suggest that the loser never posts on PPRuNe again.

Post your bet old son. Iran WILL be hit by the 8 Blu's within 6 weeks - delivered by USA B2's & followed up by Israli air strikes to say to the world "don't mess with Israel.

Watch & wait sir.

Tourist - the bet is on. - An Israeli airstrike (but it will actually be a US B2 strike) on Iran before Xmas 2011...

An honourable chap would would stand by his wager, do the decent thing and poke off. Surely you should be spending your time prepping your nuclear bunker anyway?

Quick brush up might be in order.

The Iranians, North Koreans, Argentinians, Chinese, Russians and Scottish are coming!!

PS. I do believe it's illegal to store more than 20 litres of petrol domestically.... Although I suppose a hollowed-out Scottish Island complete with nuclear bunker and a laser capable of destroying the moon might not be considered "domestic". I assume that's where you live?

[parabellum]

High speed, heavily armed, lite boats are no match for a USN warship, they will simply be blown out of the water before they could become effective.

Would Iranian navy destroyers actually 'mix it' with USN ships, I doubt it.

Do the USN know exactly where each and every Iranian Navy Submarine is? I would put money on it.

Is the Iranian Air Force capable of taking on the USAF/USN? No.

Iran is Sabre rattling, suggesting it has sunk to the same depths as North Korea, "Placate me or I will scream".

[Mike7777777]

Point 1 is demonstrably wrong, please study the action of USS Greer in Sept 1941. Kindly go away and revise the subject matter before posting again, thanks.

[andyy]

To be fair to SAM (not easy, I know) but about 12 years ago the USN were seriously concerned when the IRGN practiced a Swarm attack against a CVN in the Gulf without warning. Deploying counter measures is OK if you have an expectation of the threat but on this occasion the swarm came from no where & there was no chance of deploying a defensive screen; in such a scenario it is likely that some boats would get through anyway, armed with anti tank weaponry or even as suicide boats packed with explosives.

I guess that vessels transiting the Gulf will need the protection of many friendly fast patrol boats and top cover from AH types, if the threat is considered credible.

[Mike7777777]

If there is a perceived risk of attack by small boats then the defensive screen would be in place.

[glojo]

Hi Mike,
You and I are envisaging completely different scenario regarding the capability of these twenty year old boats. Getting away from coastal waters will not be conducive to your long term health and I suspect the commanding officers of these submarines may want to live to see their grand children??

My thoughts are that they should only 'play' to their strength, namely they will have to stay in locations close to land. This is the EXACT location where any right minded commander of a US Battle Group will NOT put his fleet. Not going to happen.

It is plain wrong to suggest Iran does not have the ability to sink a battle group, both silly and naive, BUT......... I would very respectfully suggest that Iran is at best guilty of wishful thinking if they are of the opinion that the US Battle Group is going to make itself an easy target!! NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

I also accept that Kilo class submarines and other types are detectable, but when they are hiding, then detection is never going to be that easy. Talk to the gamekeeper and they will always brag about how easy it was to detect 'x' 'y' or 'z' but talk to the poacher and they could possibly show you pictures of a ship's propeller that may have allegedly been hunting them down. Did the USA put a high degree of pressure onto the Russian Government in attempts to stop the sale of these boats to Iran. America is fully aware of the capabilities of this type of submarine.

Detecting a vessel out at sea when it is making a loud amount of noise does not compare with something lurking on the sea bed close inshore where it is possibly under the umbrella of surface to air missile protection. The diesel electric submarine is a slow snail compared to a Nimitz class carrier but when it drifts with the tides or travels at speeds of 3 knots or slower, then it is a devil to detect.

We also seem to be forgetting this class of vessel is fully capable of laying mines in the main shipping routes maybe just hours before an expected convoy, or group of vessels is due or they could possibly lay them just after a shipping lane has been swept. This might not match your scenario but it is one that no doubt the US are taking very seriously.

I agree with a few of the points made by SAM although he appears to enjoy a more confrontational approach and are we now in the age of the armed UAV which might be used to remove a number of these boats plus do we (we being NATO) have the numbers that can remain on station just waiting for an opportunity to remove any other surface threat that dares to show itself?

Originally Posted by WestCoast

The S-3 went out of service in 2009. SH-60 and P-3 are now the only USN ASW aviation assets.

Thank you very much for the update. Are you confident any battle group has the ability to protect itself from underwater attacks? I accept it will have a submarine escort attached to the group but are these units better off working at speeds FAR slower than the operational speed of the carrier? (I am aware of the high speeds a submarine can achieve but is speed a hindrance when trying to detect a very quiet enemy?)

Nice debate but we should all remember we are not invincible and was it HMS Gloucester that shot down a missile that was intent on spoiling the day of the powerful battleship USS Missouri a ship that possibly got too close to the action? Was Gloucester also the only warship to shoot down an inbound missile with a missile?

The Americans have been the victim of any number of attacks on their warships, be they small boat attack or mines.... To suggest they are invincible is asking for a lesson in reality. is it going to happen? I have no idea??? My post should be looked on as asking questions or trying to stimulate debate.

YES Iran is capable of sinking a Nimitz class carrier BUT I am of the opinion it would be HIGHLY improbable and whilst they are in deep water then improbable might raise to probably impossible

[Blacksheep]

How would the USN react to the sinking of a Nimitz class carrier? Tactical Nukes? Strategic? Whatever it is, such an event would precipitate an all-out, no-holds-barred attack on Iran and there's no guessing as to the eventual winner in such an uneven contest. You only have to recall the US response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour. They took a lot of time working up the momentum but just look where it ended.

[ORAC]

Iran’s Hormuz Threat

Expecting rationality from Ahmadinejad and the mullahs is not the best bet.

Blood & Treasure by Jim Lacey

For the past two weeks Iran has committed a sizable portion of its military to rehearsing how it would go about closing the Hormuz Strait. For the most part, strategic analysts yawned, and declared Iranian blustering to be an empty threat. Judging from the oil markets’ relatively muted reaction, it appears that most of the folks who bet big money on what happens in the Persian Gulf share this opinion. So what is this consensus based on? First and foremost, it relies on the belief that the Iranian leadership will make a number of rational calculations and decisions concerning their own and their country’s future. Personally, I am not sure of the wisdom of betting on the rationality of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a few globally disconnected mullahs.

As the “Iran is bluffing” crowd sees it, Iran does not the possess the military wherewithal to close the strait: disrupt traffic, yes; close it, no. Everyone also assumes that Iran’s leaders understand that closing the strait would mean that Iran’s own oil shipments would cease. As Iran’s oil exports account for a almost a fifth of its GDP and fund 60 percent of its national budget, even a temporary closing of the strait would be an economic catastrophe. Moreover, as Iran still relies on imports for much of its refined fuel, any closure of the strait would rapidly shut down huge segments of its non-oil economy.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out last week, however, these Iranian exercises closely coincide with “the U.S. and Europe at last mustering the gumption to target [with sanctions] Iran’s multibillion-dollar oil industry.” If sanctions do put a serious crimp in Iran’s oil and gas exports, the mullahs may decide there is little difference between the West’s closing off their access to export revenues and their doing it themselves — except that in the latter circumstance the rest of the world would share Iran’s pain. As the political and economic situation in Iran moves from dismal to catastrophic, one can easily envision internal scenarios where closing the Strait of Hormuz begins to appears as a rational option.

It may be true that, even if Iran wanted to close the strait, its military, when confronted by the U.S. Fifth Fleet, would be incapable of doing so. One should not, however, be sanguine about this being the case. Iran has hundreds of ballistic missiles, three Kilo-class submarines, and a host of fast attack boats (armed with anti-ship missiles). There is no end to the mischief a clever opponent can make with such an arsenal. For instance, in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war game, retired Marine lieutenant general Paul Van Riper, playing the Iranian side’s commander, caused so much damage to the U.S. and allied fleet that the game had to be stopped. Only after the fleet was resurrected from the bottom of the sea was the game able to continue.

Even this, however, misses the point. To create massive global economic dislocation, the Iranians do not have to keep the strait closed or even close it at all. All they have to do is make it difficult for ships to transit. On a daily basis approximately 15 supertankers make their way through the strait, carrying over 15 million barrels of oil — a sixth of the world’s supply. Any real threat to these shipments would see insurance rates skyrocket, assuming that shipping companies, captains, and crews even wanted to risk the trip.

Moreover, if the Iranians did try to close the strait, it is unlikely they would limit themselves to just that action. Rather, we could expect Iran to sow mines throughout the Persian Gulf, particularly just outside ports and within the shipping lanes. Saudi Arabia would probably have to endure a barrage of hundreds of missiles, most of them aimed at oil-shipment chokepoints, such as the stabilization plant at Abqaiq. These would be closely followed by as many air sorties as Iran’s 100-plus attack aircraft could launch before they were overwhelmed by U.S. airpower. All of this would be catastrophic to the global economy, and we have not even considered what damage Iran’s special forces or its sponsored terrorist groups might do. It is also worth noting that most of Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich areas are populated by Shias, who may have some sympathy for their co-religionists in Iran. Finally, we have not even considered the possibility that Iranian conventional forces, taking advantage of our withdrawal from Iraq, might move into Basra to interrupt Iraqi, and possibly Kuwaiti, oil shipments.

So, what happens if Iran does strike with its entire arsenal of options? For one thing, oil immediately spikes to $200 a barrel, and the price of gas tops $15 or $20 a gallon. This, in turn, will snuff out the nascent global economic recovery, and we can count on a sharp recession. How fast and decisively U.S. and other world leaders react will decide the deepness and length of this recession. A rapid release of the strategic petroleum reserves would soon bring down oil prices. Moreover, the world has enough oil in strategic reserves to make up expected losses from Iranian attacks for a little over a year. The United States, therefore, has that long to both demolish Iranian offensive capabilities and repair the damage. In short, if the world acts decisively, an Iranian attack would cause a severe, but short-lived, economic dislocation.

Of course, everything becomes harder if Iran possesses a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, everything becomes much easier if the West strikes first.

— Jim Lacey is the professor of strategic studies at the Marine Corps War College. He is the author of The First Clash and Keep from All Thoughtful Men. The opinions in this article are entirely his own and do not represent those of the Department of Defense or any of its members.

[glojo]

Iran deploys latest submarine assets to seek out the Stennis Battle Group

[alfred_the_great]

SAM's point 8 is also bollocks. If it's such a fearsome TG, I wouldn't expect an ocean-going tug to be with them on a permanent basis....