Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

[Alexander.Yakovlev]

To me it is obvious that the Iranians have just imported weapons to Assad using the 18th Flotilla.

What is more difficult to fathom is why the ships docked in Jeddah in Saudi before taking the jaunt up the Suez Canal. Saudi-Iranian relations are hardly warm, and in order for the vessels to dock in Saudi there must have been a shared objective. Have the Saudis donated weapons to the Assad regime on the premise that the Iranians facilitate their importation? If so, why? Their public stance is anti the Assad regime, but is their fear of an AQ state on their doorstep greater? This is a news story that has simply not made it into the press. The Saudi friends I have asked simply comment that the news cannot be believed and that they would rather an Israeli vessel docked in Jeddah than an Iranian one. I think that speaks wonders!!

There are too many underhand agreements going on at the moment in that region...

[Milo Minderbinder]

The problem for the Saudis is that they are faced with a choice of the present regime in Syria who are Alawis, and becoming more and more accepted as part of the Iran/Iraq Shia religuous grouping. There have been Iranian Fatwahs in recent years stating the Alawis "are" Shia, and so "friends". If they regard themselves as Shia, then by definition they are anti-Saudi (anti-Sunni, anti-Wahabi). The flip side is that if the Syrian regime falls, what will replace it? A bunch of Al-Qaeda nutters - one of whose prime objectives is to remove the al-Saud family control over Mecca and Medina
Better the enemy you know maybe...


Lonewolf
The problem of course is that if the Egyptians were to shut the canal in protest - they would be doing exactly what the Iranians want - cutting the allied Red Sea / Persian Gulf fleets from its main supply route, and also screwing up the economy of Europe.

[Alexander.Yakovlev]

Milo,

That was my assessment too. The Iranians are in no position to be donating arms and munitions, since they are undoubtedly holding on to as much stock as possible in case of conflict with the West. Saudis offer to donate weapons if the Iranians do the leg work.

[ORAC]

Grauniad: Iran nuclear talks a failure, says IAEA

UN nuclear inspectors say no progress was made, with access blocked to key site, while regime threatens pre-emptive strikes

The UN nuclear agency has declared its latest inspection visit to Iran a failure, with the regime blocking access to a key site suspected of hosting covert nuclear weapon research and no agreement reached on how to resolve other unanswered questions. The statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency was issued shortly after an Iranian general warned of a pre-emptive strike against any nation that threatens Iran.

"We engaged in a constructive spirit but no agreement was reached," the statement quoted IAEA chief Yukiya Amano as saying.

The communique said that Iran did not grant requests by the IAEA mission to visit Parchin, a military site thought to be used for explosives testing related to triggering a nuclear weapon. Amano called this decision "disappointing". No agreement was reached on how to begin "clarification of unresolved issues in connection with Iran's nuclear programme, particularly those relating to possible military dimensions", the statement said. The fact that the statement was issued early Wednesday, shortly after midnight and just after the IAEA experts left Tehran, reflected the urgency the agency attached to announcing the failed outcome. The language of the statement clearly if indirectly blamed Tehran for the lack of progress.

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency had earlier quoted the deputy head of the Islamic republic's armed forces, Mohammad Hejazi, as saying: "Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran's national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions. "[We will] not wait for enemies to take action against us."..............

[Lonewolf_50]

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency had earlier quoted the deputy head of the Islamic republic's armed forces, Mohammad Hejazi, as saying:

"Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran's national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions. "[We will] not wait for enemies to take action against us."

Hmm, this appears to be a strat of pre-emption.
Did they hire Rummy as a consultant?

[TEEEJ]

Alexander.Yakovlev wrote

To me it is obvious that the Iranians have just imported weapons to Assad using the 18th Flotilla.

Why go down the road of conspiracy? Iran has been deploying warships on anti-piracy patrols into the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since 2008. The Iranian Navy also made a port call in Saudi Arabia during 2011 when they last went into the Mediterranean. The Saudi's have been very grateful to the Iranians due to them thwarting piracy attempts on Saudi ships.

During 2011 the Iran Navy also made a port call to Saudi Arabia. The Iranian vessels also completed a visit to Tartus, Syria during 2011.

Uskowi on Iran -

Iran destroyer rescues Saudi Arabian tanker

Why would the Iranians take the risk of being caught red-handed with vessels stockpiled with weapons by the Egyptian authorities? All it would take would be for the Egyptian authorities to request a courtesy search and the Iranians would be caught out. The Iranians would have no option but to refuse and be denied transit. IMHO, the Iranians are only transiting the Suez as a poke in the eye to the Israeli's. They know that if they keep everything above board and professional then nothing can be done in regards to their use of the Suez. The visit to Syria at this time is also seen as direct support to Syria and further annoyance to Israel and the US.

Recent news has the Iranian vessels jamming Syrian Free Army communications during their brief visit.

Iranian Ships Jam Syrian Rioters' Communications - Media

[WE Branch Fanatic]

US planning to boost sea and land defences in Gulf as Iran war fears grow - Telegraph

Military planners have asked for emergency funding from Congress to address a perceived shortfall in defence capabilities that could undermine the ability of US forces to respond to an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal quoted American officials as saying.

Gen James Mattis, the head of the US Central Command, has privately informed Congress of his intentions to place mine detection and clearing equipment in and around the Strait and to boost surveillance capabilities in the Gulf.

There are also plans to modify weapons systems on ships that are at present vulnerable to Iranian fast-attack boats, many of which carry anti-ship missiles.

Reflecting Pentagon fears that the US could be sucked into a war by the end of the year, the Central Command told Congress that it wanted the new systems in place by the autumn.

[Milo Minderbinder]

Well, if the press statement is accurate,at least it indicates there won't be an attack on Iran in the next six months
When is the most favorable weather period for flight operations in the Gulf / Indian Ocean?

[glojo]

I am still have my suspicions regarding this issue and whilst Greece owes a few bob and we all think that country is in dire straits the US debt is slightly more than just a few more shekels. The last time I looked it was in excess of $15 TRILLION??? I am guessing that is 'slightly' more than the debt that most countries owe but instead of taking fiscal measures to reel in this situation we are continually hearing reports of more ships, more aircraft, more technical advances....

Could it be that countries that might not be on the Christmas Card lists of the United States of America are actually playing mind games and getting this super power to go bankrupt?

If the Middle East were all of a sudden to sell its oil in either gold or perish the thought, the Euro then it would be Goodnight America! No shots would be needed, no blockades would be needed.

Just me thinking aloud whilst I am as high as a kite

$15,405,000,000,000 I am guessing that is the approximate debt but it is rising so fast it will be out of date before I blink..

[Courtney Mil]

Originally Posted by Glojo

and getting this super power to go bankrupt?

That's how we won the Cold War, Glojo, so there's probably something in that.

[glojo]

Originally Posted by CM

That's how we won the Cold War, Glojo, so there's probably something in that.

Good morning Courtney,
Totally agree and that was what was behind my witterings of last night. We are looking on this forum at huge amounts of money being spent on new fifth generation F-35 aircraft but are we aware of all the other eye watering military expenditures that are ongoing including the Zumwalt class destroyers that are unlike any other current warship I have seen.

Yet another project is the LHA-6 Amphibious assault Ships which will be the largest of that type ever built.. There are a number of projects all at the construction stage and all costing billions of dollars. Sadly a few of them are plagued with development costs which are going to have huge impacts on costings That one might have problems that show the aircraft industry are not alone when it comes to expensive setbacks.

This link highlights a number of new projects that look amazing but are also not going to be purchased on a Platinum American Express Card.

Is all this off topic? I don't think so as it is possibly an explanation to a much bigger picture than just threatening to close the strait.

Why fight a war with blood and guts when you can bring a country to its knees in a much more clinical and maybe even more ruthless manner?

[Courtney Mil]

Good morning, Glojo.

Some very interesting links there and I have to wonder how they're affording those big ships. I suppose they are working more on the assumption that continuing to spend Government money is good for the economy. Maybe it could be, but it won't help if, as you say, their debt keeps spiralling upward.

Did the builders get the Zumwalt's hull plans upsidedown?

[Lyneham Lad]

Did the builders get the Zumwalt's hull plans upsidedown?

No, but they may have been looking at an old photo

[Courtney Mil]

Ah, I see, LL. So the ship's not as big as they make it look in their "artist's impression".

[WE Branch Fanatic]

Preparing for War: Information Dissemination

Today, mentioned in passing in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee - without a word or question on the topic from any supposedly well informed Senators - Chief of Naval Operations Jonathan Greenert told the Senate committee that the US Navy is going to deploy 4 minesweepers to the Persian Gulf (which will double the number of US Navy Minesweepers in the Persian Gulf) and also send additional mine hunting helicopters to the region. This comes following news earlier this year that the US Navy is working on the USS Ponce to deploy to the Persian Gulf to be a full time Mine Warfare Command Ship.

In other words, the Chief of Naval Operations announced to the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning specific details about preparations for war with Iran, and in response the Senators drooled on themselves in silent capitulation. The only thing missing from that scene from this mornings Twilight Zone moment in the Senate was the CNO knocking on the microphone asking "is this thing on" for dramatic effect.

When the CNO tells Senators in a public hearing that the Navy is deploying four little 1300 ton minesweepers to the other side of the world, in any context that can be described as the US Navy preparing for war with Iran. Deploying minesweepers to the Persian Gulf isn't like a typical 6 month deployment of a Navy warship, because some big commercial vessel will almost certainly be chartered to carry the ships across the ocean. This is a big deal.

This is also what a naval buildup for war against Iran looks like.

So the US is sending additional Minehunters, minehunting helicopters, and a command ship to the Gulf, and beefing up the anti air and anti missile defences of these forces. Meanwhile, we are planning on doing nothing to improve the defences of our Minehunters. Whilst the Government have decided that we do not need to deploy a CVS/LPH, we need one in the Thames during the Olympics....

[ORAC]

Israeli-Azerbaijan Deal Leaked, Bolton Blames Obama

According to a new article in Foreign Policy, Israel has, through a longtime but recently deepened relationship with Azerbaijan, gained access to airfields in a country bordering Iran, which it could use to make more feasible its attack on Iran. FP reports:

In 2009, the deputy chief of mission of the U.S. embassy in Baku, Donald Lu, sent a cable to the State Department’s headquarters in Foggy Bottom titled “Azerbaijan’s discreet symbiosis with Israel.” The memo, later released by WikiLeaks, quotes Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev as describing his country’s relationship with the Jewish state as an iceberg: “nine-tenths of it is below the surface.”

Why does it matter? Because Azerbaijan is strategically located on Iran’s northern border and, according to several high-level sources I’ve spoken with inside the U.S. government, Obama administration officials now believe that the “submerged” aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance — the security cooperation between the two countries — is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran. . . . “The Israelis have bought an airfield,” a senior administration official told me in early February, “and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.”

As it stands, Israel doesn’t quite have the bombing forces or the aerial refueling capacity to launch an attack on Iran that could be sure to hit all of their nuclear sites. Though Azerbaijan has publicly ruled out the possibility of Israel using their airbases to launch attacks on Iran, calling Iran “our brother and friend country,” FP explains that the bases could be put to any number of useful purposes that will extend Israel’s reach, especially by allowing Israeli planes to land on Azeri airfields after an attack. Though Israel has had economic relationships with Azerbaijan for decades, things have changed:

Israel’s deepening relationship with the Baku government was cemented in February by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides Azerbaijan with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems. At the same time, Baku’s ties with Tehran have frayed: Iran presented a note to Azerbaijan’s ambassador last month claiming that Baku has supported Israeli-trained assassination squads targeting Iranian scientists, an accusation the Azeri government called ”a slander.” In February, a member of Yeni Azerbadzhan — the ruling party – called on the government to change the country’s name to “North Azerbaijan,” implicitly suggesting that the 16 million Azeris who live in northern Iran (“South Azerbaijan”) are in need of liberation.

Today on Fox News, John Bolton blasted the Obama administration, accusing them of intentionally leaking the information, saying it was part of “this administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack,” which is motivated by their opinion that “an Israeli attack is worse than an Iranian nuclear weapon.” Israeli newspapers also reported this accusation today — the FP story about airbase access was based on “four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers.” Bolton explained that he believes “the Obama administration has torqued it up a notch, and now they’re going to reveal very sensitive, very important information that will allow Iran to defeat an Israeli attack.” The video is below:

[racedo]

Azeribaijan is spoiling for another fight with Armenia and will do anything it can to make it happen.........last time they got their butts kicked and quite probable this would happen again.

Add in Russia with its interests in Georgia and Turkey then it is a volatile area.

[ORAC]

New York Post: Undermining an ally, aiding the enemy

[WE Branch Fanatic]

The EU sanctions against Iran come into force tommorow. I refer readers to my previous post.

[WE Branch Fanatic]

The additional forces deployed to the Arabian/Persian Gulf by the United States seem to be arriving in theatre - as this badly written story from the Telegraph shows.