Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

Old 24th Jan 2012, 13:12
  #401 (permalink)  

Gentleman Aviator
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Teetering Towers - somewhere in the Shires
Age: 74
Posts: 3,691
Received 42 Likes on 21 Posts
Loving the concept of a discussion on global willy waving ending up as a willy waving contest on a forum
... indeed - most interesting.

But I remain unsure what it exactly it has to do with:
Military Aircrew A forum for the professionals who fly the non-civilian hardware, and the backroom boys and girls without whom nothing would leave the ground.
teeteringhead is online now  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 13:21
  #402 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
500N,

China is also taking control of strategic minerals all around the world. Particularly in Africa and Australia. You comment about worrying japan is correct. The rest of the world is also getting worried. China, in Africa, are not yet as important as countries such as the UK, Canada and South Africa, but they are getting there.

There are many misconceptions concerning the Chinese imperative to ensure security of supply for resources and hence its interest in African resources. It is, however, of major concern for China that it is not to be able to secure its supply of most of the economically important metals and minerals in the way the ‘Western’ countries have been able to do for decades. This is why it is carrying out the policies that it does.

China is also building up strategic reserves in Inner Mongolia and other locations. Currently, about 36 percent of the world’s reserves of the metals are in China. China also tightened control over the metals by slashing quotas for overseas shipments by some 35 percent for the first half of 2011, as well as hiking export taxes.
hval is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 13:31
  #403 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia - South of where I'd like to be !
Age: 59
Posts: 4,261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
hval

Spot on. The way they dish out money to third world countries that is tied to other things (mineral exploration, oil etc)

Every day here in the business section, some article or other about China
buying this or that mine, company etc. They hate the fact that we (as in the Australian Iron Ore producers) and Vale (Brazilian Iron Ore Producer) control the price and keep jacking it up !

FYI, China are also buying up farms here as well and have been doing very well indeed although it is starting to be of concern to the Gov't here.


AR1
Most forum threads, if at all controversial end up as willy waving contests.
If you think this is bad, go onto a firearms forum and then see some serious willy waving.
500N is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 17:40
  #404 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: UK
Age: 46
Posts: 642
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
What will happen is this:

Late 2012 - as sanctions and oil boycotting of Iran begin to bite, Iran will agree to, or propose, weapons inspections by the UN.

Mid 2013 - weapons inspectors report no evidence of Iran having a nuclear weapons or any other WMD programme.

Mid/Late 2013 - west presents evidence of what it believes in Iran impeding weapons inspections.

Late 2013/early 2014 - Iran suspends weapons inspections indefinetely.

Mid 2014 - build up of western forces in middle east (exempt UK - who will be trying to reinforce Falklands to protect its on own oil interests there.....)

Late 2014 - west invades Iran. Short conflict of maybe 6 months, until regime overthrown and temporary government put in place. A lengthy insurgency follows with 10,000s civilians killed, 1,000s of US/Allied servicemen/women killed.

Mid 2016 - first free elections held in Iran.

2022 - US withdraws last forces from Iran. No nuclear weapons or other WMD ever found in Iran.

If I was President Ahneedadinnerjacket I would be trumpeting the West's WMD record on Iraq right now. I would cease all oil exports to the EU and North America. Then put in place a 20 year agreement with China/North Korea/Russia to sell them vast amounts of oil and below market prices.
timzsta is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 17:53
  #405 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: 03 ACE
Age: 73
Posts: 1,007
Received 15 Likes on 11 Posts
Hardly a surprising contribution !!

We all know about the boy who cried "WOLF"
El Grifo is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 20:19
  #406 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,234
Received 1,502 Likes on 679 Posts
[QUOTE]I will add that what has really caught people's attention recently is the huge deposits of rare earth minerals / elements[/QUOTE Common Misconceptions of Rare Earth Elements
ORAC is online now  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 20:31
  #407 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia - South of where I'd like to be !
Age: 59
Posts: 4,261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
ORAC
Interesting article. Thanks for posting. I'll be more specific next time.

China currently controls 97% of the world rare earth minerals / elements and has put export restrictions on them, to the worry of Japan and other countries.


China currently controls "over 95% of the global production of rare earth elements" and has put export restrictions on them, to the worry of Japan and other countries.
500N is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 21:17
  #408 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 64
Posts: 7,131
Received 320 Likes on 204 Posts
hval: glad to see you join in, thanks to you and ORAC for the perspective.

Shy:
Countries should not have to worry about interventions from Uncle Sam. And if you could find it in your collective selfves to knock it off for a while, it might just stop the Irans of the world seeking nukes so they can keep you lot off their backs!
America found out, via neutrality, that when we more or less "do nothing," other countries still go to war. As we've been involved in global trade since the 1600s, that goes counter to our interest.
See the period 1900 -1939 for a nice reference.
Hence, I don't find your reasoning to hold up.
Also, per some of my previous posts, the Iranian desire for deterrent includes more than one LOCAL power that they have to be concerned with, not just Uncle Sam.
If the war-mongering 'see u next tuesdays' in the US start one, then there'll be one- whether the people of the US wish it or no.
If the US wanted to start one, one could be started in about ten minutes. What the politicos here seem to be doing is trying to apply pressure short of war to achieve a political result.
I am not convinced it is necessary, see a few of my previous posts, but it's at least consistent with American policy across five administrations, in terms of its aim.
Might this pressure lead to a reaction that makes for a regional war? Yes. There is a risk that this will all go wrong.
But oddly enough, the Americans are not doing this totally alone.
All I'm saying is that if you do- you ass is going to get kicked. Again
Like it got kicked in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Vietnam.
Selective memory you have there, and not even factual, so I am not going to bite on that bait.
CENTCOM are NEVER going to win in the ME.
I don't think you understand CENTCOM's role, but no matter, it is linked to a later point on the fit between tactical and strategic means and ends.
They always kill too many of the locals.
War is rather ugly, no matter how you try to pretty it up. I don't care who is waging it, people die. If you hold the American military to a zero defects standard, you are being foolish. I don't care if you don't like our justice system, at all. I am glad they were charged, and faced court martial. Due process is still one of our rules that we adhere to, whether lynch mob members from foreign countries are happy about it, or not.

On that note, I find your "I hate America theme" getting tiresome.
Thanks at least for being consistent.
The US has a flawed strategy in the ME.
All pivoted around a basically unsound money-based alliance with you know who, and a grasping need for oil.
Do you mean the Saudis?
No amount of good Tactical work ever makes up for **** Strategy.
True enough.

One of the challenges with our ME policy for the past 40 years, since about the time the King of Saudi Arabia led the oil embargo against the US in wake of the Arab/Israeli war of 1973, has been to figure out how much containment can be used, how much can't, and who you can work with, and deal with, in the area of shared interests.

Unlike Europe, and a few countries in Asia, we don't seem to have a lot of cultural amicability in the region. The impact this has on policy is to reduce it to economic and mechanistic realms of mutual interest.

No surprise that the results are inconsistent, at best.

You can't polish a turd.

EDIT:

World Blog - Danger zone then and now: Strait of Hormuz

Whoa, there's a blast from the past. Name that helicopter!

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 24th Jan 2012 at 21:31.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 21:40
  #409 (permalink)  
PTT
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Posts: 441
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
As we've been involved in global trade since the 1600s,
What? You didn't even have a country until the late 1700s!
PTT is offline  
Old 24th Jan 2012, 22:03
  #410 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Orac,

What Dudley Kingsnorth neglects to point out is:-

1/ New materials require new developments to achieve similar standards to the 22nm chips that are on the market this year. This costs; lots.

2/ New materials mean forgetting all the years of development in current materials technology and closing down those Fab plants currently being built, and those currently in use ($3 billion to $4 billion being the current normal price for a Fab plant), plus all the research for the 16nm chips due in 2013 and the 11nm chips due in approximately 2015.

3/ New materials mean a new design process is required for processors. New chemicals may be required for creating the chips. This requires modifications to existing chemical plants. Guess what? It takes time and vast amounts of money

4/ New materials in chips will probably mean slower processors; certainly for the next few years, maybe longer. Will Vista & Windows 7 run on them? This means companies will have to develop new software. Cost is billions. It may not even be possible to bring the speed back up to current speeds. Will the Typhoon be able to fly?

5/ The new materials will cost more than the current materials. Your computer, your washing machine, my FBW SE5 will all cost more

6/ All computerised items that currently exist will no longer be repairable if a chip goes. What you going to do when that dinkus in your A380 no longer works, and the new chips wont work with the current software? Rewrite the software? Will the chip be powerful enough to run it? Will the power supply be powerfull enough? Will the wiring be sufficient? Cost globally? Trillions

7/ All those designs on the board are no longer valid. Need to redesign everything

8/ Think of the waste having to recycle or throw away all those materials. Think of the energy costs.

I could go on, but hopefully you get the idea. Could the world afford it?

Last edited by hval; 24th Jan 2012 at 22:06. Reason: I can't spell powurfool
hval is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 05:59
  #411 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,234
Received 1,502 Likes on 679 Posts
I could go on, but hopefully you get the idea. Could the world afford it?
It's a throwaway culture - and it's been spent for every new generation of chip and storage technology for the last 30 years. Compared to the world economy - and potential profits - the costs are minor, mainly driven by the games market!!

Incidentally, the New Scientist reported on experimental chip technology using phosphorus coated channels working successfully at 1.5nm wide without any quantum tunnelling issues (which itself seems to raise some questions!). Couple that with IBM vertical integration and there's a few more generations of Moore's Law to go yet.
ORAC is online now  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 06:56
  #412 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Orac,

It's a throwaway culture
It is a throw away culture, you are quite correct; but not throwaway on quite such a vast scale. It is normal for industry to wish to recoup costs, and to make profits. Private industry, unlike the Public Sector, is unable to suffer losses for long. The costs are not quite so small as you might believe.

Thank you for the link; an interesting article. Fascinating how it is possible to get around the quantum effect. I was once involved, on the periphery, in quantum computing. It was fascinating.
hval is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 12:15
  #413 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
Posts: 18,267
Received 467 Likes on 191 Posts
Hval....my statement about there not being enough OIL in Afghanistan to light up a Miner's Lantern is correct. If you really believe it to be wrong...produce some information about the OIL fields that exist in the country. OIL was the supposed reason for any involvement by the USA according to the person I was responding to with my reply. I said he was wrong....and I say you are wrong. He in his usual whine that everything is always about OIL and you for saying I was wrong for pointing out the absence of OIL in the place.

You are very correct about the Mineral wealth of the area. Back in the mid-70's....I flew in support of the first Geological Survey of Iran which confirmed the same for that country. We found lots of Copper and other valuable assets. We were flying in an area adjacent to Afghanistan so I am sure the two areas were very similar in makeup.

Interestingly enough...there were remains of old Copper Smelters...and not a tree of any size within several hundreds of miles. Progressive live stock grazing practices and a harsh climate along with an over use of the fuel supply led to a proper Desert landscape in the area that once had sufficient wood to fuel the smelters.



Oil - proved reserves - Country Comparison
SASless is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 13:44
  #414 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 64
Posts: 7,131
Received 320 Likes on 204 Posts
PTT, you might wish to learn a bit about the History of the United States of America, and look at how it fit into global trade, during the colonial times, into its early time as a new nation, and up unto the present time. It's a continuum. (A good survey of that, and how it influenced our political processes and factions is in Meade's "Special Providence.")

Virginians, for example, do not disavow the part of Virginia's history which was colonial.

So, again, slowly so that you can understand what I wrote up there:

Americans have been involved in global trade since colonial times. Our interests have been influenced by global trade since colonial times, and trade of that nature had an influence on our rebellion against King George.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 25th Jan 2012 at 14:02.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 13:47
  #415 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
SASless,

Between the 1960s and the mid-1980s, about fifteen oil and natural gas fields were discovered by the Soviets in northern Afghanistan. These fields were concentrated in the vicinity of Sheberghan, the capital of the province of Jovzjan, about 120 kilometers west of Mazar-i-Sharif. However, despite these discoveries, from 1959 to 2006, oil extraction came almost exclusively from the Angot field, which in its heyday produced an average of 500 barrels per day (bpd). Recently, for practical reasons, Afghanistan ceased its production of oil.

As to natural gas, Afghanistan’s current production accounts for only one tenth of the level of daily gas production in 1978 in northern Afghan fields like Khowaja Gogerdak, Djarquduk and Yatimtaq.

Seismic surveys have been carried out in Afghanistan, as has drilling & extraction. I would agree that there is unlikely to be significant oil deposits in the South and the West of Afghanistan.

The following link Oil & Natural gas Viewer (which I provided in one of my previous postings) shows you the data. The link shows you the well locations, the seismic survey lines and much more. The USGS web site this link is from (USGS Projects in Afghanistan) provides a very detailed report. Just remember to select the options you wish to see data for.

I am envious of you carrying out the aerial surveys. I was normally land based, or marine based for carrying out exploration. Were you on the Tirpul basin survey in 2006? The North was surveyed the same year. Have a read of this.
USGS Assessment Significantly Increases Afghanistan Petroleum Resource Base

Go here for the report (which you are able to download).


Hopefully that should keep you happy. Still envious of you though.
hval is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 13:48
  #416 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 64
Posts: 7,131
Received 320 Likes on 204 Posts
shy:

Nations have interests. All nations. That makes the rest of the world the goo through which a given nations pursues its interests. That is not a fundamentally "American" problem. It is part of the environment any nation, or nation state, operates in.

I find it ironic, and amusing, that a Brit is making such an appeal. (If I have missed my guess on your nationality, apologies).

Beyond that, we've reached a culminating point.

Cheers.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 14:31
  #417 (permalink)  
PTT
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Posts: 441
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Oh I understood you, Lonewolf. It's just that "you" weren't American in the 1600s; "you" were British.
PTT is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 14:32
  #418 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
PTT,

I didn't realise Lonewolf was that old
hval is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 15:43
  #419 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
Posts: 18,267
Received 467 Likes on 191 Posts
I just love the term...."undiscovered"....and then an statement saying how much is there!

I will have to admit....500 barrels of oil a day is a huge amount.

Key thing is the US Government found time between murdering all these thousands of innocent Afghani's to find a source of oil and gas that could be developed for domestic use by the Afghan people.

Why who knows...they might be able to build some electric generation plants and not have to import their electricity.

Just ruining the country aren't we?

Imagine the fight between the War Lords over who gets the dosh to build the infrastructure and benefit from the profits of the production....that will be nastier than the fight over the Poppy business.

I wonder why Obama/Hu Solyndra et al have not pushed for Wind Farms and Solar fields there yet? As the Afghanistan air is fairly pristine (less say Kabul and a couple of other towns)...it would prevent any air pollution from occurring.
SASless is offline  
Old 25th Jan 2012, 17:07
  #420 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
SASless,

500 barrels a day production is more than enough to light your oil lamp though. Large amounts of confirmed oil just waiting to be extracted.

Not sure how much you know about seismic, but am guessing that you have at least some knowledge. For those that don't think about the differences between seismic/ geological surveys and exploration drilling. Seismic/ geological surveys tell us that hydrocarbons may be there/ are probably there. Drilling tells us it is there, and allows a fairly accurate guestimate as to how much is there. Those gravity and magnetic surveys that you, SASless, carried out helped as well.

As for "Undiscovered", well, like the USA was "The Undiscovered Country". Didn't the Amerindians, bison, zebra, giraffe and god knows what else native animals know that what we know as USA previously existed. That term has always annoyed the hell out of me. Don't worry, I don't blame you for it.

By the way, some people might have noticed that I included a few species that aren't actually natural inhabitants of the USA.

Just so long as Halliburton and their subsidiaries don't get involved we should all be okay. Oh, too late; years too late. Aren't the warlords actually Halliburton Directors?
hval is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.