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15 ton "Big blu"

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15 ton "Big blu"

Old 16th Dec 2011, 20:52
  #321 (permalink)  
 
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Nicely put, 500N. I would say the end of a thread. But, is there more to come?????
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Old 17th Dec 2011, 23:31
  #322 (permalink)  
 
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Just a thought, if Israeli military aircraft don't have the range and run the risk of detection, suppose if one of the many IL-76s or AN-124s (aka flying white vans) that ply the worlds airlanes were to be transiting Iranian airspace and one or two items of 'cargo' fell out...
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 11:47
  #323 (permalink)  
 
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On the occasions that I flew to Tehran when based at RAF Sharjah we were always very conscious of the proximity of the USSR Border. I would think that the current Russian Federation would have extremely strong views in respect of a nuclear attack on Tehran!!
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 12:06
  #324 (permalink)  
 
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Not so sure about that. I can see the Russian being quite happy if the populations of their nearest Republics - Dagestan, Chechnya and the two Ossetias - were wiped out by fallout
If the radiation did get that far, then Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan would be affected as well - solving a few more problems for the Russians
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 12:19
  #325 (permalink)  
 
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On the occasions that I flew to Tehran when based at RAF Sharjah we were always very conscious of the proximity of the USSR Border.
Yeah right Caz.....what kind of navigator are you?

You would have had to cross a whole mountain range to get to the Russian border....and ignore a rather large bit of water called the Caspian Sea in the process!

One would have to be almost two hundred nautical off course and beyond your destination to cross into Russian airspace!
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 13:15
  #326 (permalink)  
 
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SASless

I was referring to the USSR NOT the current Russian Federation. A 30 knot wind would spread contamination over a very large area in 10 hours.
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 15:07
  #327 (permalink)  
 
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SASless

I'm sure you know that you don't need to see the ground to navigate. In 1961, during Gulf War Minus 1, the UK-based Hunter squadrons had the task of replacing the FGA aircraft which helped dissuade the pre-Sadam Iraq from taking over Kumait. During my trip, on the eastbound leg through Turkey from Nicosia to Teheran, I experienced very strong NDB signals emanating from the north. They had the ident of the eastern beacon to which we were flying. Fortunately, we had been briefed to expect this.

On the way back, the knackered old Hunters we had to return to UK did not have serviceable kit to lock on to the rogue signals.

Side track - is your location Destin near Eglin? I spent a very enjoyable holiday in Destin with a USAF mate from RAF Staff College. I saw USAF C130s practising their technique to recover SF troops using the long line and balloon. Absolutely amazing.
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 15:26
  #328 (permalink)  
 
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I think SASless was pointing out that the nearest Soviet states - Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - are both around 500 miles to to the NORTH of Tehran, while Sharjah is to the south
Flying Sharjah > Tehran takes you nowhere near Soviet territory
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 17:26
  #329 (permalink)  
 
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Erm, we may be missing the point. If anyone went nuclear, there are a dozen major powers that would react very nastily, no matter how close their borders. Fallout doesn't stop at borders (as you have said), but it does go a long way. Chernobyl hit Sweden first and reached the UK in a couple of days. You don't have to be East (in the northern hemiphere) to get a big dose.
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 17:56
  #330 (permalink)  
 
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you can't compare the fallout trail from an ongoing major fire involving nuclear materials in a reactor core as experienced at Chrnobyl (or the Windscale pile for that matter) with the radioactive debris from a nuclear detonation
Depending on type / size /delivery and weather the fallout from a bomb could be relatively minimal
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 21:43
  #331 (permalink)  
 
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You're right, James. But the amount of fallout (or, more correctly, contamination) isn't the issue when it comes to how nations react. First it's the issue of someone using a (no pun intended) device. Second ANY intusion of radionucleides into someone else's "space" is not going to be well received. What's the difference between "a bit of containation" and "a sh*t load of it"?

I only used Chernobyl as an example to illustrate where this stuff can go.
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 22:34
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If anyone went nuclear, there are a dozen major powers that would react very nastily, no matter how close their borders
Just how much damage can harsh language, and stomping your feet, do? No one will do anything unless they could be sure they couldn't be hit as well. Its the both the beauty and the curse of Nukes. Once you actually have them its a game changer.
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Old 18th Dec 2011, 22:44
  #333 (permalink)  
 
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And who is going to react? Not India
Pakistan don't have a delivery system to hit Israel, and probably wouldn't be daft enough to try.
Russia? They'd be only too glad to lose their problems in the Caucasus. They might rattle a few verbal sabres, but long term they'd be better off politically.
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 08:26
  #334 (permalink)  
 
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I take all your points there, but I can't really see the other actors just sitting back and saying, "Tut, look what they've gone and done now. Oh, well, let's get on with Christmas. Only a few nukes after all."

Perhaps they'll move on from stamping feet to a UN Resolution!!!
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 09:28
  #335 (permalink)  
 
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SAM

"I think that the unfolding events in North Korea have suddenly changed the focus of the US somewhat & Iran is partially "off the radar" for the next few weeks. The US has some 28,500 personnel stationed in S.Korea, with thousands more in Japan. Iran (to the US) is a FUTURE threat & therefore of no immediate consequence"

Agree with you here SAM, focus will be on North Korea for a few months unless Iran does something stupid.

"The situation in N.Korea is a whole new ballgame that should have been anticipated & planned for (but I bet it wasn't....)."

That "bet" word again !!! - No bite from me . I would say it had been planned for, just maybe it was not expected to happen quite as quickly as it has.

I was of the understanding that the various US commands have a whole range of contingency plans already drawn up and war gamed. Wasn't US Central Command running a war game with Iran as a Central player just as Iraq invaded Kuwait and they had to stop the war game as events over took it ?

Sam
Maybe they will use Big Blu on North Korea.

.
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 10:24
  #336 (permalink)  
 
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SAM, you're back. Glad you had a change of heart from post #347!

Kim Jong Il, did not die of a heart attack, it was a CIA assassination. His son will almost certainly seize the opportunity to have a go at the South, hoping that international focus will be split between his actions and Iran. I would expect a border crossing any day now, although the South's high state of readiness will certainly halt them fairly quickly. That will be when the North has to fall back on its nuclear capability and will select specific military targets, not civilian ones. Now, the only question remaining is how will the US respond, especially with all those US personnel there?
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 10:30
  #337 (permalink)  
 
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M2, did you work that yourself or have you suddenly stopped taking your medication?
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 10:34
  #338 (permalink)  
 
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he's been ghost writing for Tom Clancy again
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 10:39
  #339 (permalink)  
 
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M2

Did you cop a bit too much sun or did SAMXXV manage to log on under your name ?

What you wrote is almost worth a bet if it had a time frame on it

.
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Old 19th Dec 2011, 10:56
  #340 (permalink)  
 
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Three days, max, 500N. The writing's on the wall. But I couldn't take your money, it's just too obvious.

While they're in their a ten-day period of mourning and headless, they're hoping that the world won't be expecting any immediate action. Meanwhile Kim Jong-un is secretly seizing power in Pyongyang and preparing to strike. They've been after the South for decades. He sees this as his big chance.

It will be a dawn raid on 22nd December. So, allowing for the time difference, that would make it 21:17 on 21 Dec in the UK.

Wait and see.

M2
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