British Military Planning for Iranian Strike?
Analysis of the Iranian nuclear programme by the Institute for Science and International Security
Institute for Science and International Security › ISIS Reports with Imagery › Iran
From
Institute for Science and International Security
Institute for Science and International Security › Countries › Iran
http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-...ctober2011.pdf
Latest report from ISIS
http://www.isisnucleariran.org/asset...vember2011.pdf
Institute for Science and International Security › ISIS Reports with Imagery › Iran
From
Institute for Science and International Security
Institute for Science and International Security › Countries › Iran
http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-...ctober2011.pdf
Latest report from ISIS
http://www.isisnucleariran.org/asset...vember2011.pdf
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So, the plan is for Iran to develop the bomb then either
1. Lob a few at Israel via irbm etc
Or
2. Give a couple to Hamas and hope that once in possession they follow the game plan.
Right.
As has been debated before, it is the LOSS of singular nuclear capability in the region that Israel fears, NOTHING MORE.
1. Lob a few at Israel via irbm etc
Or
2. Give a couple to Hamas and hope that once in possession they follow the game plan.
Right.
As has been debated before, it is the LOSS of singular nuclear capability in the region that Israel fears, NOTHING MORE.
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I am glad I didn't hit "enter" after typing up a response to SAM.
SAM, you are a WOFTAM.
unchecked
"any hastily-planned operations" ???????
The US has plans written for a number of scenarios related to Iran.
Remember Gulf 1, weren't Central Command exercising (war gaming) one of them at the time of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait ?
The opposition inside Iran is obviously similar to other nations but seems to have been "crushed". If this could be re started and the change come from within, it would be good, however I think the Council may not allow it and crush them again.
.
SAM, you are a WOFTAM.
unchecked
"any hastily-planned operations" ???????
The US has plans written for a number of scenarios related to Iran.
Remember Gulf 1, weren't Central Command exercising (war gaming) one of them at the time of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait ?
The opposition inside Iran is obviously similar to other nations but seems to have been "crushed". If this could be re started and the change come from within, it would be good, however I think the Council may not allow it and crush them again.
.
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I find it somewhat incomprehensible that anybody on this forum who has stood up to the troll (SAMXXV) would be admonished by the mods. Trolling is banned on all three internet forums I frequent..at least I thought it was. Racism however, is banned in the UK by law. If it is going to tolerated in any fashion on Pprune I guess it's time to move on.
Getting back to topic, while his argument is framed with all the knowledge and logic of the 12 year old he claims to be, I regret one cannot be equally dismissive of his conclusions. There are a great many Nuclear Proliferation Analysts who believe the world is moving inexorably towards a 1962 type scenario...only with slighty less rational types with their fingers on the trigger.
Nuclear exchange in the next six months...unlikely.
Nuclear exchange in the next ten years...distinct probability.
Getting back to topic, while his argument is framed with all the knowledge and logic of the 12 year old he claims to be, I regret one cannot be equally dismissive of his conclusions. There are a great many Nuclear Proliferation Analysts who believe the world is moving inexorably towards a 1962 type scenario...only with slighty less rational types with their fingers on the trigger.
Nuclear exchange in the next six months...unlikely.
Nuclear exchange in the next ten years...distinct probability.
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Agree Old Fat One
I do not consider SAMXXV to be either a retard or a troll. But he clearly has a significant mental problem. Not only because of the content of his posts, but more significantly that he considers it acceptable to submit them in the first place. He has clearly succumbed to whatever illness with which he is afflicted either since leaving the RAF, or it was a reason for having to leave. His highly offensive personal remarks on a recent thread caused him to be banned from that thread: I hope that the Moderators will see fit to ban him from here permanently.
I do not consider SAMXXV to be either a retard or a troll. But he clearly has a significant mental problem. Not only because of the content of his posts, but more significantly that he considers it acceptable to submit them in the first place. He has clearly succumbed to whatever illness with which he is afflicted either since leaving the RAF, or it was a reason for having to leave. His highly offensive personal remarks on a recent thread caused him to be banned from that thread: I hope that the Moderators will see fit to ban him from here permanently.
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500N
I'm sure they do have a plan - i just hope that that the progress made in Afg is not compromised by the fact it is very close to the action. Likewise that in Iraq.
I'm sure they do have a plan - i just hope that that the progress made in Afg is not compromised by the fact it is very close to the action. Likewise that in Iraq.
Nemo Me Impune Lacessit
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the French Foreign Legion (feared worldwide - much more than the SAS/SBS).
The Legion is a highly respected fighting force, comparable with British RM Commandos, USRangers, Australian Commandos etc. The only part of the legion that could, perhaps, in part be compared to the SAS/SBS is their Pathfinder unit. You cannot compare apples with oranges.
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If you ignore the comments about ragheads the Foreign Legion, and VCs, the the rest of what SAMXXV is probably reasonably accurate
Within its own regional context, the Israeli armed forces DO make ours look limited. OK, their forces are aimed against their immediate neighbours while ours pretend to global aspirations, but look at the facts
Something like 350-400 front line F-15 and F-16 aircraft.
Something like 1600 main battle tanks with a similar number of older models in reserve...
An entire population trained to use weapons
Indiginous nuclear design and build capability
How do we compare??
Within its own regional context, the Israeli armed forces DO make ours look limited. OK, their forces are aimed against their immediate neighbours while ours pretend to global aspirations, but look at the facts
Something like 350-400 front line F-15 and F-16 aircraft.
Something like 1600 main battle tanks with a similar number of older models in reserve...
An entire population trained to use weapons
Indiginous nuclear design and build capability
How do we compare??
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and for those thinking an Israeli strike on Iran is unlikely, the Jewish press seems (at least in some quarters) to be gearing up its readership for something dramatic
Israel Air Force conducts drills for long-range attacks - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
U.S. military official: We are concerned Israel will not warn us before Iran attack - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
Israel, U.S. to embark on largest joint exercise in allies' history - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
Looks like pre-emptive psych-warfare postings to me
Israel Air Force conducts drills for long-range attacks - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
U.S. military official: We are concerned Israel will not warn us before Iran attack - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
Israel, U.S. to embark on largest joint exercise in allies' history - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
Looks like pre-emptive psych-warfare postings to me
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sorry but "SAMXXV" sounds sin to me, and you lot that shoot him down will be the first too be in any bunkers if no already in them, yes he said " raghead " oh so what he;s un PC, and so what.. You lot are the biggest laugh going......
Ok mrmrsmith, I'll bite.
Its not so much that SAMXXV is inarticulate and derogatory as that he is misinformed and perhaps needs to do a little bit of growing up. Like many people on here, I don't know who he is, nor, I'd imagine does anyone else. His claims to have served in the R.A.F. may well be true, but certainly if he held a commission, it strikes all the more that he may be misleading us somewhat, based on his manner and style of posting.
A lot of what he says comes across as an ignorant drunk at the Bar rant. Rather than attempts to bring carefully observed points to the attention of others.
FB
Its not so much that SAMXXV is inarticulate and derogatory as that he is misinformed and perhaps needs to do a little bit of growing up. Like many people on here, I don't know who he is, nor, I'd imagine does anyone else. His claims to have served in the R.A.F. may well be true, but certainly if he held a commission, it strikes all the more that he may be misleading us somewhat, based on his manner and style of posting.
A lot of what he says comes across as an ignorant drunk at the Bar rant. Rather than attempts to bring carefully observed points to the attention of others.
FB
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Oh no, another that is let out occasionally by the white coats. Over time, the RAF certainly had its share of weirdos, so I suppose they're bound to appear here from time to time.
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Yet again you're collectively missing the key point of what was said. It matters not a whit to the strength of SAMXXV's argument whether "raghead" is offensive or not.
What DOES matter is the correctness and comparison of the UK forces with those of the Israeli's, and his assessment of just how capable - or otherwise - the UK forces are. From where I'm sitting he looks right on the money.
For what its worth I'm sure most of you have been around the military long enough to be aware that many of our servicemen DO think in terms of ragheads, towelheads, camel jockeys and such like, and no pious whining is going to change that.. You don't need to read more than a couple of military autobiographies to realise that....
What DOES matter is the correctness and comparison of the UK forces with those of the Israeli's, and his assessment of just how capable - or otherwise - the UK forces are. From where I'm sitting he looks right on the money.
For what its worth I'm sure most of you have been around the military long enough to be aware that many of our servicemen DO think in terms of ragheads, towelheads, camel jockeys and such like, and no pious whining is going to change that.. You don't need to read more than a couple of military autobiographies to realise that....
Last edited by jamesdevice; 6th Nov 2011 at 10:15.
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No james, the key point of what he said is that there will be nuclear war in the next few months involving large amounts of US troops on the ground in Iran.
Willy-waving about relative military size/capability is merely a very small aside in SAM's lunacy.
Willy-waving about relative military size/capability is merely a very small aside in SAM's lunacy.
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well, given the way the Jewish / Israeli press appear to be heating the debate over a pre-emptive Israeli strike it wouldn't surprise me if someone starts chucking nukes around in the next twelve months. The press and government leaks appear to be preparing the Israeli public for such a strike, and could be seen as psychological warfare "warnings" to Iran. However I can't see much chance of large numbers of USA troops involved:: there won't be time to lift them in. Things will develop too quickly
I am not at all convinced that Iran has deployable nuclear weapons. It may well be the case that they are close to being able to construct a first generation nuclear weapon, but it not necessarily the case that it is sufficiently small and light to be deployable. The necessary technology to miniaturise a nuclear warhead is very difficult to develop. I hope that before we make a pre-emptive strike, there is some informed debate about the realistic danger of Iranian weapons and that we don't glibly launch an attack based on another "dodgy dossier" of ill-informed and incomplete and paranoid intelligence data, stirred up to a frenzy by ignorant tabloid press.
In a wider context, the nuclear non-proliferation treaty needs to be renegotiated. It is absurd that Israel - a non-signatory - is allowed to keep nuclear weapons simply because it did not sign the treaty, whereas Iran is threatened with pre-emptive strikes for being in breach of the treaty. Moreover, the "haves" have not lived up to their side of the treaty - namely to disarm - whereas the "have nots" such as Iran are threatened with attacks because they may not have stuck to their side of the treaty.
Finally, there will never be any peace in the Middle East until the Israel-Palestine situation is resolved, and that means putting substantial pressure on Israel. Trying to blame Iran for regional instability is a red-herring.
In a wider context, the nuclear non-proliferation treaty needs to be renegotiated. It is absurd that Israel - a non-signatory - is allowed to keep nuclear weapons simply because it did not sign the treaty, whereas Iran is threatened with pre-emptive strikes for being in breach of the treaty. Moreover, the "haves" have not lived up to their side of the treaty - namely to disarm - whereas the "have nots" such as Iran are threatened with attacks because they may not have stuck to their side of the treaty.
Finally, there will never be any peace in the Middle East until the Israel-Palestine situation is resolved, and that means putting substantial pressure on Israel. Trying to blame Iran for regional instability is a red-herring.
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Then its best to stop them before they DO get it. As the saying goes, get your retaliation in first. Better to prevent them developing nuclear warfare capability, than try to deny it to them afterwards
As to your implied suggestion that we should be looking at disarming while hostile parts of the world are building up their nuclear capabilities, that is just plain stupid. We have an advantage, and we should strive to keep it. We've partially disarmed already by withdrawing the WE177 family of weapons. That in itself was a mistake and sent the wrong signals
Suggesting that the west "have not lived up to their side of the treaty" is just left-wing sophistry
And as for "Trying to blame Iran for regional instability is a red-herring.", thats just total bunkum. Israel may some pretty repugnant racial practices, but they are NOT the primary target of Irans's export of Islamic terror. The whole west is their religious, moral, philosophical and military enemy. And they are dedicated to the Islamisation of the west
As to your implied suggestion that we should be looking at disarming while hostile parts of the world are building up their nuclear capabilities, that is just plain stupid. We have an advantage, and we should strive to keep it. We've partially disarmed already by withdrawing the WE177 family of weapons. That in itself was a mistake and sent the wrong signals
Suggesting that the west "have not lived up to their side of the treaty" is just left-wing sophistry
And as for "Trying to blame Iran for regional instability is a red-herring.", thats just total bunkum. Israel may some pretty repugnant racial practices, but they are NOT the primary target of Irans's export of Islamic terror. The whole west is their religious, moral, philosophical and military enemy. And they are dedicated to the Islamisation of the west
Last edited by jamesdevice; 6th Nov 2011 at 14:29.