New Falklands War Brewing
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Prime Minister Cameron is certainly in a difficult position. Unfortunately I see him as being the wrong person for the current time. I believe that William Hague would have made a better job of it. His experiences of the military in Catterick, Leeming, Catterick Village, etc. at least provide him with some understanding of what can and can't be done. I feel that currently he is not his own man and may be saying things that he wouldn't say if he were Prime Minister. Tony Blair (whom I hate with a vengeance) would probably have done a better job.
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Excellent points Whenurhappy
If the Argentine government can use a routine force rotation as evidence of "militarisation" imagine what would happen if HMG sent something extra down.
There is no realistic military threat to the islands from Argentina, and they would not receive military help from other South American nations, except perhaps Venezuela. Uncle Hugo would face severe problems getting his boys down south, and the usefulness of his forces in the South Atlantic is questionable. The present garrison is more than sufficient to repel any likely threat, so why inflame the situation?
The ban on FI flagged ships is largely symbolic, reports of egg shortages on the BBC not withstanding. Brazil, Uruguay and Chile have all stated that if the ships fly another flag they can put in anywhere. That's not bullying, it's regional politics, like giving a sweet to a recalcitrant child for a little peace and quiet. Even Paraguay won't allow FI flagged ships to dock there.......
Timmerman's UN presentation was widely ridiculed here, most analysts saw the rotation for what it was, a routine force rotation not an escalation. The Argentine government lacks real support both at home and regionally for anything beyond a diplomatic solution, and any military adventure would result in the isolation of the country from it's principal trading partners. Inflation and unemployment are growing in Argentina, but the people are better informed now and the Falkland Islands are way down their list of priorities. Kirschner's government can't even convince it's own people that the islands are important enough to die for.
Argentina spends about 0.9% GNP on defence, ahead only of that military powerhouse Surinam in South America. The Type-45 could splash every serviceable combat aircraft with one salvo, they have no serious amphibious capability, no way of landing armour, insufficient lift for a decisive airdrop, nothing that could achieve even local air superiority, and very little in the way of reconnaissance assets. Their armed forces know their limitations, and have told the government that they cannot mount an operation against the Falklands. Building up to the level where they could mount such an operation would take several years and require funding that simply isn't available.
All HMG has to do is not rise to the bait, continue to point out the absurdity of the Argentine claims, and follow the self-determination line, something that is widely accepted in Latin America.
TTFN
If the Argentine government can use a routine force rotation as evidence of "militarisation" imagine what would happen if HMG sent something extra down.
There is no realistic military threat to the islands from Argentina, and they would not receive military help from other South American nations, except perhaps Venezuela. Uncle Hugo would face severe problems getting his boys down south, and the usefulness of his forces in the South Atlantic is questionable. The present garrison is more than sufficient to repel any likely threat, so why inflame the situation?
The ban on FI flagged ships is largely symbolic, reports of egg shortages on the BBC not withstanding. Brazil, Uruguay and Chile have all stated that if the ships fly another flag they can put in anywhere. That's not bullying, it's regional politics, like giving a sweet to a recalcitrant child for a little peace and quiet. Even Paraguay won't allow FI flagged ships to dock there.......
Timmerman's UN presentation was widely ridiculed here, most analysts saw the rotation for what it was, a routine force rotation not an escalation. The Argentine government lacks real support both at home and regionally for anything beyond a diplomatic solution, and any military adventure would result in the isolation of the country from it's principal trading partners. Inflation and unemployment are growing in Argentina, but the people are better informed now and the Falkland Islands are way down their list of priorities. Kirschner's government can't even convince it's own people that the islands are important enough to die for.
Argentina spends about 0.9% GNP on defence, ahead only of that military powerhouse Surinam in South America. The Type-45 could splash every serviceable combat aircraft with one salvo, they have no serious amphibious capability, no way of landing armour, insufficient lift for a decisive airdrop, nothing that could achieve even local air superiority, and very little in the way of reconnaissance assets. Their armed forces know their limitations, and have told the government that they cannot mount an operation against the Falklands. Building up to the level where they could mount such an operation would take several years and require funding that simply isn't available.
All HMG has to do is not rise to the bait, continue to point out the absurdity of the Argentine claims, and follow the self-determination line, something that is widely accepted in Latin America.
TTFN
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Originally Posted by [COLOR=Black
alemaobaiano[/COLOR]]Argentina spends about 0.9% GNP on defence, ahead only of that military powerhouse Surinam in South America. The Type-45 could splash every serviceable combat aircraft with one salvo, they have no serious amphibious capability, no way of landing armour, insufficient lift for a decisive airdrop, nothing that could achieve even local air superiority, and very little in the way of reconnaissance assets. Their armed forces know their limitations, and have told the government that they cannot mount an operation against the Falklands. Building up to the level where they could mount such an operation would take several years and require funding that simply isn't available.
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Quick question
I am listening to all this hype about GREAT Britain sending Prince William and a type 45 to the Falklands but will they be there at the same time or as I suspect the type 45 will not arrive before the RAF pilot is back home after this six week break?
(Break as in getting away from having to put up with being constantly harassed by photographers with telephoto lens capable of snapping a fresh zitt as it breaks cover)
I am listening to all this hype about GREAT Britain sending Prince William and a type 45 to the Falklands but will they be there at the same time or as I suspect the type 45 will not arrive before the RAF pilot is back home after this six week break?
(Break as in getting away from having to put up with being constantly harassed by photographers with telephoto lens capable of snapping a fresh zitt as it breaks cover)
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From today's Telegraph online:
Falklands oilfields could yield $176bn tax windfall - Telegraph
It looks like the Falkland Islanders will be able to afford their own defences in the near future as well as pay back the UK for 30 years of protection against Argentinian aggression. That should help to pay off the UK's debts.
Provided that the current government doesn't blow things in the near future and either allow the Argies to invade again or negotiate their handover..........
Falklands oilfields could yield $176bn tax windfall - Telegraph
It looks like the Falkland Islanders will be able to afford their own defences in the near future as well as pay back the UK for 30 years of protection against Argentinian aggression. That should help to pay off the UK's debts.
Provided that the current government doesn't blow things in the near future and either allow the Argies to invade again or negotiate their handover..........
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As I said in #484:
Aside from her re-election campaign this can only be an effort by Argentine Presidrnt Cristina Kirchner (aka The Hag) to stake a claim upon the islands now verified commercially viable oil reserves!
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No good deed goes unpunished
Some time ago whilst attending the RAF drinking and shagging championshions ( Skiing) a bunch of mates and myself were taking advantage of a long lunch between drinks!
We found ourselves in a rather couth place, general banter was ensuing at which point a very distinguished looking chap, accompanied by 2 simply stunning ladies, Mum and daughter as it turnrd out, leant over to our rather vocal bunch and the following exchange took place:
DG (Distinguished Gent): "Hess cuse me but are you Gentlemen in the British Air Force?"
Us:"Er .......Yup"
DG: "Were any of you involved in the Falklands War?"
Us: "Yes" said the only one of us who had been, followed by gobby ****e (me sorry
) chirping in with " and we kicked the Argies arses!"
DG. Unphased by gobby little ****e..........."in that case Gentlemen my country and I owe you and your collegues a great debt. For without your help my country would not now be a Democracy! I am the Agentinian Charge d'Affaire in Geneva!"
Needless to say I felt like, well, a gob****e!
However as the title suggests without our robust reaction to the '82 invasion not only would the FI be Argentinian now but Mrs Botox Kurchener would not be in office.
So no good deed goes unpunished.
( I still squirm about my spout even now!)
Lets hope level heads prevail.
We found ourselves in a rather couth place, general banter was ensuing at which point a very distinguished looking chap, accompanied by 2 simply stunning ladies, Mum and daughter as it turnrd out, leant over to our rather vocal bunch and the following exchange took place:
DG (Distinguished Gent): "Hess cuse me but are you Gentlemen in the British Air Force?"
Us:"Er .......Yup"
DG: "Were any of you involved in the Falklands War?"
Us: "Yes" said the only one of us who had been, followed by gobby ****e (me sorry
) chirping in with " and we kicked the Argies arses!"DG. Unphased by gobby little ****e..........."in that case Gentlemen my country and I owe you and your collegues a great debt. For without your help my country would not now be a Democracy! I am the Agentinian Charge d'Affaire in Geneva!"
Needless to say I felt like, well, a gob****e!
However as the title suggests without our robust reaction to the '82 invasion not only would the FI be Argentinian now but Mrs Botox Kurchener would not be in office.
So no good deed goes unpunished.
( I still squirm about my spout even now!)
Lets hope level heads prevail.
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Alwayzinit - I feel for you.
Not Falklands related, but I was in a hotel bar in Beirut, where there was much alcohol, dancing and free food. All the ingredients for a great evening. Food was Mexican, which struck me as odd in Lebanon, but the Churros were rather splendid. Well, the dancing continues, and an older distinguished guy in a penguin suit slips on lands on his front. Everyone else in the bar is horrified, but not I. Roadster280 is pissing himself laughing, and of course the whole room stops and scowls at me.
Apparently it's not the done thing to laugh at the Mexican Ambassador when he slips over and starfishes into the floor.
Not Falklands related, but I was in a hotel bar in Beirut, where there was much alcohol, dancing and free food. All the ingredients for a great evening. Food was Mexican, which struck me as odd in Lebanon, but the Churros were rather splendid. Well, the dancing continues, and an older distinguished guy in a penguin suit slips on lands on his front. Everyone else in the bar is horrified, but not I. Roadster280 is pissing himself laughing, and of course the whole room stops and scowls at me.
Apparently it's not the done thing to laugh at the Mexican Ambassador when he slips over and starfishes into the floor.
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The ban on FI flagged ships is largely symbolic, reports of egg shortages on the BBC not withstanding. Brazil, Uruguay and Chile have all stated that if the ships fly another flag they can put in anywhere. That's not bullying, it's regional politics, like giving a sweet to a recalcitrant child for a little peace and quiet. Even Paraguay won't allow FI flagged ships to dock there.......
Plus... if you've ever raised a child you ought to know that buying 'good' behaviour with sweets might buy you a *little* peace and quiet ... but only in the short term. Pretty soon they figure out that misbehaviour is the way to get what they want, and you have a kid the throws a tantrum if they don't get what they want immediately they demand it.
pb
Given that the air defence of the British Forces South Atlantic Islands (BFSAI) will soon become a joint effort between the Typhoons, the Rapiers and the Type 45, maybe the overall effort should be termed Joint Air Power South Atlantic Islands. Or JAPSAI for short...
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pb
The Falklands are currently a British Overseas Territory, and as such I don't see a problem flying the Red Ensign when putting into South American ports, however I can see your point of view.
The second part of my comment was largely tongue in cheek, I have successfully raised two lovely daughters and now have three grandchildren, thanks very much. My comment about docking in Paraguay should have given it away
TTFN
The Falklands are currently a British Overseas Territory, and as such I don't see a problem flying the Red Ensign when putting into South American ports, however I can see your point of view.
The second part of my comment was largely tongue in cheek, I have successfully raised two lovely daughters and now have three grandchildren, thanks very much. My comment about docking in Paraguay should have given it away
TTFN
alema... whatever. I'll to work out the name later. I agree with your points and with your analysis of the current situation. Thanks for that.
Congrats on all your offspring.
Congrats on all your offspring.
Apologies if this has been posted before. I had a quick search and couldn't find a previous posting.
The video is just a snippet from the BBC programme that was broadcast during January 2012.
From You Tube description.
Ministry of Defence | Defence News | History and Honour | IN PICTURES: Falklands veteran meets Argentine pilot he shot down 30 years ago
BBC News - Falklands veteran meets Argentine 'enemy' 30 years on
Ministry of Defence | Picture Viewers | GALLERY: Meeting the Enemy
The video is just a snippet from the BBC programme that was broadcast during January 2012.
From You Tube description.
A British Falklands veteran embarks on an extraordinary journey to meet the Argentine pilot he thought he'd killed in the 1982 conflict.
Neil Wilkinson from Leeds was 22-years-old when, as an anti-aircraft gunner onboard HMS Intrepid, he shot down an enemy skyhawk fighter jet.
For decades he believed the pilot was dead.
But First Lieutenent Mariano Velasco had ejected from his burning aircraft and survived.
Now, three decades on, the two former enemies have come face to face for the first time.
Nicola Rees reports from the Falklands and Argentina for BBC Look North and BBC Inside Out in Yorkshire.
Neil Wilkinson from Leeds was 22-years-old when, as an anti-aircraft gunner onboard HMS Intrepid, he shot down an enemy skyhawk fighter jet.
For decades he believed the pilot was dead.
But First Lieutenent Mariano Velasco had ejected from his burning aircraft and survived.
Now, three decades on, the two former enemies have come face to face for the first time.
Nicola Rees reports from the Falklands and Argentina for BBC Look North and BBC Inside Out in Yorkshire.
Ministry of Defence | Defence News | History and Honour | IN PICTURES: Falklands veteran meets Argentine pilot he shot down 30 years ago
BBC News - Falklands veteran meets Argentine 'enemy' 30 years on
Ministry of Defence | Picture Viewers | GALLERY: Meeting the Enemy
I don't understand how anyone can stand the lies about "settling a dispute" since the dispute was settled in 1982.
If ever the Ministry of Truth was in operation, and Newspeak was running amok, it is at the UN and coming out of the mouths of any number of South American heads of state and their moutpieces.
The residents of the FI wish to remain British citizens. THAT is the key issue to hand. They wish not to be invaded by an aggressor, any more than Kuwaitis wanted to be invaded by Iraqis.
The Argies wish to achieve by lies and politics (ooh, sorry, I was redundant there) that which they cannot take by force, but which they would take by force if they could.
The Korean peninsula still has mine fields, since a certain nation proved it would engage in aggression and attach the other: North to South.
The British have a powerful data point that the Argies will use aggression to get a particular plot of land. See 1982. Argentina invaded someone elses territory, and started a war.
The British government are 100% justified in securing their territory and PREVENTING a war by being ready.
THAT message needs to be put forth over and over and over.
Mr Cameron, get with it.
President Obama, get a clue.
If ever the Ministry of Truth was in operation, and Newspeak was running amok, it is at the UN and coming out of the mouths of any number of South American heads of state and their moutpieces.
The residents of the FI wish to remain British citizens. THAT is the key issue to hand. They wish not to be invaded by an aggressor, any more than Kuwaitis wanted to be invaded by Iraqis.
The Argies wish to achieve by lies and politics (ooh, sorry, I was redundant there) that which they cannot take by force, but which they would take by force if they could.
The Korean peninsula still has mine fields, since a certain nation proved it would engage in aggression and attach the other: North to South.
The British have a powerful data point that the Argies will use aggression to get a particular plot of land. See 1982. Argentina invaded someone elses territory, and started a war.
The British government are 100% justified in securing their territory and PREVENTING a war by being ready.
THAT message needs to be put forth over and over and over.
Mr Cameron, get with it.
President Obama, get a clue.
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I don't understand how anyone can stand the lies about "settling a dispute" since the dispute was settled in 1982.
From this date, the issue of sovereignty was not raised again by the Argentine government until 1941 - so it seem to be forgotten for 91 years, until Britain seem to be on the point of collapse during the dark years of WW2, and the Argentines brought the issue up again in order to position themselves for a grab of the territory if Britain was put out of the war. At the opening of the Argentine congress each year, the leader reads a list of messages that outline Argentina issues and plans, and for 91 years the Falklands were not even mentioned. It has been ever since (that's when they actually have a democracy).
Britain offered 3 times in the 1950 to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice, and 3 times Argentina declined, and furthermore stated that they would not accept the adjudication of the ICJ over the dispute. I wonder why? It's because their claim actually isn't that strong, whatever CFK (Christina Fernandez de Kirchner) would have you believe. Funnily enough there is never a mention of this peace treaty when the Argentines present their own version of the dodgy dossier.
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Sean Penn accuses Britain of 'colonialism' over Falklands
At a meeting with Argentine president Cristina Kirchner, the Left-wing Hollywood actor referred to the islands "the Malvinas Islands of Argentina" and said Britain should entered into a UN-sponsored dialogue over their sovereignty.
More hogwash here.
Sean
I never did like your acting and I suppose you're not that good as a lover either (at least according to Madge). However, your politics is even worse than your acting (if that were possible).
You may not like Britain (probably because your ex moved here or you don't understand us or both) but no need to take up issues which you clearly don't understand.
You are, in the British definition .. a total plonker!
CG
At a meeting with Argentine president Cristina Kirchner, the Left-wing Hollywood actor referred to the islands "the Malvinas Islands of Argentina" and said Britain should entered into a UN-sponsored dialogue over their sovereignty.
More hogwash here.
Sean
I never did like your acting and I suppose you're not that good as a lover either (at least according to Madge). However, your politics is even worse than your acting (if that were possible).
You may not like Britain (probably because your ex moved here or you don't understand us or both) but no need to take up issues which you clearly don't understand.
You are, in the British definition .. a total plonker!
CG