New Falklands War Brewing
While I'm not suggesting that a mass parachute assault will be attempted by Argentina, the German capture of Crete in 1941 illustrates that it is possible to capture an island, despite a strong ground defence, without a large, highly specialist, amphibious capability in your navy.
Courage, daring, the willingness to accept losses and the use of innovative tactics can all ensure that so called "fortresses" can be taken, as has been repeatedly demonstrated throughout history since Troy (and probably even earlier).
At the end of the day the defence of the FI rests almost entirely on 4 Typhoons. If the Argentinians can establish and maintain air superiority over the FI the rest has a certain inevitability about it.
4 Typhoons is a pretty thin defence (I know, we will have reinforced by then as we know an invasion will be coming.... Yeah, like that worked the last time!!), which a smart opponent can overcome by a variety of options rather than direct aerial combat....
As for a Type 45 and an SSN, how often will they be down there? We will only have 6 Type 45s, and about 12 FFs, so 2 deployments out of every 3 for surface vessels probably won't be a specialist AAW platform. What price one type 23 against whatever the opposition elects to throw at it? SSNs are also pretty thin on the ground, and I'd be surprised if one was down there on a regular basis.
As for retaking the islands if we lost them, it is not just about military capability, but the political will of the UK PM and government of the day. Will they be willing to take large numbers of casualties, and potentially lose, in what would be a higher risk venture than 1982 without a UK carrier flying fixed wing assets...
Courage, daring, the willingness to accept losses and the use of innovative tactics can all ensure that so called "fortresses" can be taken, as has been repeatedly demonstrated throughout history since Troy (and probably even earlier).
At the end of the day the defence of the FI rests almost entirely on 4 Typhoons. If the Argentinians can establish and maintain air superiority over the FI the rest has a certain inevitability about it.
4 Typhoons is a pretty thin defence (I know, we will have reinforced by then as we know an invasion will be coming.... Yeah, like that worked the last time!!), which a smart opponent can overcome by a variety of options rather than direct aerial combat....
As for a Type 45 and an SSN, how often will they be down there? We will only have 6 Type 45s, and about 12 FFs, so 2 deployments out of every 3 for surface vessels probably won't be a specialist AAW platform. What price one type 23 against whatever the opposition elects to throw at it? SSNs are also pretty thin on the ground, and I'd be surprised if one was down there on a regular basis.
As for retaking the islands if we lost them, it is not just about military capability, but the political will of the UK PM and government of the day. Will they be willing to take large numbers of casualties, and potentially lose, in what would be a higher risk venture than 1982 without a UK carrier flying fixed wing assets...
On last occasion RR and Sir Casper aided UK forces because they needed Maggie to support them in Europe against Russkis.
Somehow I doubt BO and Leon Panetta will be offering same help as South America has a lot more trade opportunities.
Somehow I doubt BO and Leon Panetta will be offering same help as South America has a lot more trade opportunities.
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
...it would perhaps therefore be polite/sentient if you cosidered my answer to your question in light of the question you asked.
what kind of casualty rate do you think this 'oxfam' fleet would take before a set of gucci goretex boots walked on the sand?
As I said earlier, I don't think they would be able to take the Islands in the first place.
As for force strength and disposition, I suggest you ask your editor if these are appropriate questions to be asking
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
glojo;
Yes they could have been. However as I said, your way of describing intelligence gathering is spying and therefore normal rules do not apply!
Edith Cavell springs to mind!
I have no idea what you are trying to say but I fear my choice of words could have been better... For 'spying' read intelligence gathering
Edith Cavell springs to mind!
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You're talking as if this would be a war between states, with the Geneva Convention rules applying
From the Argentines point of view they would be just reasserting control over a rebel province, the Geneva convention won't apply and any resistance by the locals will simply be criminal behaviour - and treated as such. Possibly through the courts, but as already said, given Argentinian history expect a lot of disappearances, especially from the back door of aircraft over the sea while drugged.
Whether anyone is actively spying or not will be irrelevant - the fact is anyone perceived to be a threat to Argentine rule will be at risk. Under the rule of Miss Piggy, civil liberties seem to be getting a low priority again
From the Argentines point of view they would be just reasserting control over a rebel province, the Geneva convention won't apply and any resistance by the locals will simply be criminal behaviour - and treated as such. Possibly through the courts, but as already said, given Argentinian history expect a lot of disappearances, especially from the back door of aircraft over the sea while drugged.
Whether anyone is actively spying or not will be irrelevant - the fact is anyone perceived to be a threat to Argentine rule will be at risk. Under the rule of Miss Piggy, civil liberties seem to be getting a low priority again
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HMS Illustrious at Glenmallan
A few photos from the other day (hope this works).
HMS Illustrious 138
HMS Illustrious 6
HMS Illustrious 107
HMS Illustrious 138
HMS Illustrious 6
HMS Illustrious 107
Last edited by hval; 7th Feb 2012 at 21:38. Reason: Trying to get a photo to show. Yippee! I bet I forget this in the future.
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Are the Apaches fitted with de-icing gear? Last time the green Lynx with their antitank missiles weren't, so couldn't be deployed. This time we have no other attack helicopters - the Lynx missiiles have gone, as have the missile carrying Wessex / Scout / Gazelle - unless a squadron of Gazelles could be scraped together? But they'd have low survivability.
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Surprised that no one else has picked up on this:
Falkland Islands: Argentina's president to raise stakes in address to nation | World news | The Guardian
If the LAN Chile flights are cancelled, it's bad news for us working down here, as well as Chilean workers and Falklanders needing medical treatment in Chile.
Falkland Islands: Argentina's president to raise stakes in address to nation | World news | The Guardian
If the LAN Chile flights are cancelled, it's bad news for us working down here, as well as Chilean workers and Falklanders needing medical treatment in Chile.
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Re "spying versus intelligence gathering", is what Terry Peck did in 1982, waling around taking photos of the defenses and having the film smuggled out to the UK by contractors spying or intelligence gathering ? He was a member of the FIDF.
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Argentine President Cristina Kirchner invited Falklands War veterans and opposition leaders to a ceremony on Tuesday amid renewed tensions with London ahead of the 30-year anniversary of a conflict over the archipelago
Argentine Presidrnt Cristina Kirchner has said she will make "announcements" about the Falklands
"The president will make announcements" on the Falklands, a government source said ahead of the event at the Casa Rosado, the government palace.
It was not immediately clear what Kirchner would announce but she invited veterans of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic islands, opposition leaders and the diplomatic corps in Buenos Aires.
Argentine Presidrnt Cristina Kirchner has said she will make "announcements" about the Falklands
"The president will make announcements" on the Falklands, a government source said ahead of the event at the Casa Rosado, the government palace.
It was not immediately clear what Kirchner would announce but she invited veterans of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic islands, opposition leaders and the diplomatic corps in Buenos Aires.
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Argentina to raise Falklands UK 'militarisation' at UN
Can we speed up the winter service on 558....
BBC News - Argentina to raise Falklands UK 'militarisation' at UN
Corned beef off the menu again in our house.
BBC News - Argentina to raise Falklands UK 'militarisation' at UN
Corned beef off the menu again in our house.
You're talking as if this would be a war between states, with the Geneva Convention rules applying
From the Argentines point of view they would be just reasserting control over a rebel province, the Geneva convention won't apply
From the Argentines point of view they would be just reasserting control over a rebel province, the Geneva convention won't apply
Chances of us ceding the islands without a fight? Zero!
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
Are the Apaches fitted with de-icing gear? Last time the green Lynx with their antitank missiles weren't, so couldn't be deployed. This time we have no other attack helicopters - the Lynx missiiles have gone, as have the missile carrying Wessex / Scout / Gazelle - unless a squadron of Gazelles could be scraped together? But they'd have low survivability.
Oh and ref the Apache...yes.
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So Terry Peck, walking around with a length of drainpipe, which I gather concealed a telephoto lens (and of course a Camera) taking photos of the Argies would be considered espionage, he being a resident and the Argies an invading force ?
I suppose with the Argies background, no excuse needed anyway but he was a bit smart for them in 82.
I suppose with the Argies background, no excuse needed anyway but he was a bit smart for them in 82.
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
Re "spying versus intelligence gathering", is what Terry Peck did in 1982, waling around taking photos of the defenses and having the film smuggled out to the UK by contractors spying or intelligence gathering ? He was a member of the FIDF.
Setting up an OP and wearing military clothing however, should give a totally different conclusion.
Falklands heroes son becomes Argentine
Falkland Islands Info Portal - History Articles
How sad that there is the possibility some of us could be fighting the same soldiers we once served with under the NATO/SFOR flag
... then there was the Irish Army's St Patricks Day party where we all drank together !
Pointing out the Argentinan flag at Butmir
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
While you're researching your de-icing answer Milo;
Surely all the crew need to do is remove the aircrew knife from the immersion suit and they become undetectable to radar 
- unless a squadron of Gazelles could be scraped together? But they'd have low survivability.