F-35 Cancelled, then what ?
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LO The point I was making was the FMS numbers are nothing compared to the USAF numbers, if the A10 is to be retired early as well as some F16s units going then the number of F35As required to directly replace (1:1) the active F16 fleet would be in the region of 8-900 not the ordered 1,763.
I cannot see the USAF being granted the funds to nearly double the size of its fighter / attack fleet materially in the future.
If this is the case then the unit cost must go through the roof, it has been the most expensive development project in the US DOD's history, unless someone is just going to wright off all the development costs..
I cannot see the USAF being granted the funds to nearly double the size of its fighter / attack fleet materially in the future.
If this is the case then the unit cost must go through the roof, it has been the most expensive development project in the US DOD's history, unless someone is just going to wright off all the development costs..
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Angus Batey - weblog / archive
The link is to an item I came across courtesy of Aviation Weeks' Ares blog.
According to this reading of the MoD's current position, the UK requirement officially remains at 138 F35Bs. You may detect a certain scepticism in the writer's language, but there is obviously a tricky balance to be struck between a higher unit price and possible industrial penalties for a reduced order, yet still trying to balance the defence procurement budget.
Sophistry rules?
LF
The link is to an item I came across courtesy of Aviation Weeks' Ares blog.
According to this reading of the MoD's current position, the UK requirement officially remains at 138 F35Bs. You may detect a certain scepticism in the writer's language, but there is obviously a tricky balance to be struck between a higher unit price and possible industrial penalties for a reduced order, yet still trying to balance the defence procurement budget.
Sophistry rules?
LF
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Order Change
'RhinoPower' said:
What is your point? The quoted official list from LM dated 09 Sep. Dutch make known new numbers 17 Sep. Have the Dutch officially changed their order with LM. I do not know. Do you?
"Quote:
Originally Posted by SpazSinbad
Over the years LM have made it clear the 'official order record' is changed by governments of countries notifying LM
I think the Dutch government 'notifying' LM of their decision to more than halve their original order of the Joint****eFighter from 85 to 37 is offiicial enough, don't you?
-RP "
Originally Posted by SpazSinbad
Over the years LM have made it clear the 'official order record' is changed by governments of countries notifying LM
I think the Dutch government 'notifying' LM of their decision to more than halve their original order of the Joint****eFighter from 85 to 37 is offiicial enough, don't you?
-RP "
Last edited by SpazSinbad; 25th Sep 2013 at 19:04.
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ORAC what your post doesn't tell you is that they are referring to SDD money and LRIP tails being shifted right
never take a naysayer at face value
Lowe Flieger, thanks for your post and its answers
never take a naysayer at face value
Lowe Flieger, thanks for your post and its answers
The planned reduction in the number of aircraft was, it turns out, tied to the decision to buy the C rather than the B. The thinking - unpublished in the SDSR but known to its authors - was that the greater range of the C meant that fewer aircraft would be required to deliver the same military capability. When that decision was reversed, and the STOVL version went back on the UK's shopping list, the reduction in fleet size was also reversed, and the planned UK buy went back from the unspecified lower number to 138 .
Last edited by JSFfan; 25th Sep 2013 at 20:53.
The Dutch have ordered two F-35s, which have been built and (in the case of at least one of them) placed in storage at Dutch expense, because they were supposed to be used for IOT&E, which now won't happen for a few years and will be done with a different build standard of aircraft.
The production, sustainment and follow-on development MoU says 85 aircraft, but is about as binding as a bran muffin. The same goes for the UK's 138 aircraft.
The Cloggies are actually buying 35 more jets for a total of 37.
The production, sustainment and follow-on development MoU says 85 aircraft, but is about as binding as a bran muffin. The same goes for the UK's 138 aircraft.
The Cloggies are actually buying 35 more jets for a total of 37.
Last edited by LowObservable; 25th Sep 2013 at 20:55.
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Something to think about:
With JSF replacing Harrier and Tornado GR4 and the RAF committed to a 2 aircraft type fast jet fleet (Typhoon and F-35 by the 2020s) what do you replace Typhoon with in about 10 - 15 yrs time?
Whilst UCAVs look great for deep strike missions they really aren't a good shape for Air - Air combat. I don't see anyone friendly developing a new, manned fighter and 10 yrs from concept to IOC seems impossible these days.
Anyone want to bet 138 F-35 (prob mix of A & B) will be the only manned aircraft the RAF will have in the not too distant future?
With JSF replacing Harrier and Tornado GR4 and the RAF committed to a 2 aircraft type fast jet fleet (Typhoon and F-35 by the 2020s) what do you replace Typhoon with in about 10 - 15 yrs time?
Whilst UCAVs look great for deep strike missions they really aren't a good shape for Air - Air combat. I don't see anyone friendly developing a new, manned fighter and 10 yrs from concept to IOC seems impossible these days.
Anyone want to bet 138 F-35 (prob mix of A & B) will be the only manned aircraft the RAF will have in the not too distant future?
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I think your right WhiteOvies. I am sure I read somewhere that the plan is to retire Typhoon and replace them with F-35, am sure it mentioned the A model. As you say the future is probably 138 or so F-35s and that its for the UK military. I think they were talking around the 2030 period for this.
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138?
Not a hope - if the next Govt is Lab or Lab/Lib they'll be looking for cuts in all military programmes
if its Tory or Tory/Lib they'll have to finish paying for the carriers and financing the replacement SSBN programme
We'll be "re-working" Typhoons to fill the gap
Not a hope - if the next Govt is Lab or Lab/Lib they'll be looking for cuts in all military programmes
if its Tory or Tory/Lib they'll have to finish paying for the carriers and financing the replacement SSBN programme
We'll be "re-working" Typhoons to fill the gap
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
With JSF replacing Harrier and Tornado GR4 and the RAF committed to a 2 aircraft type fast jet fleet (Typhoon and F-35 by the 2020s) what do you replace Typhoon with in about 10 - 15 yrs time? Whilst UCAVs look great for deep strike missions they really aren't a good shape for Air - Air combat. I don't see anyone friendly developing a new, manned fighter and 10 yrs from concept to IOC seems impossible these days.
.......As a top level summary of some of the required system capabilities, the air vehicle should be capable of addressing the following needs:
1.Capable of operating from CVN 68 and CVN 78 class aircraft carriers, as part of the Carrier AirWing (CVW), with minimal impact on the ship configuration and the operations of the rest of theCVW.
2.This aircraft will be a complementary CVW asset to the F-35C and an unmanned persistentintelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) vehicle with precision strike capability.
3. The ability to conduct persistent, penetrating operations in an A2AD operational environment.
4. The ability for an IOC in the 2030 timeframe. If a spiral approach to incorporation of systemsand/or technology to achieve full operational capability is employed, provide the timeline toachieve full capability..........
Last edited by ORAC; 26th Sep 2013 at 12:52.
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JSF Nieuws.nl » Japan: traditional F-35 stealth will be obsolete within 10 years
The Japanese newsagency NHK News report that Japan will invest in the development of radartechnology for detecting stealth aircraft.
Perfect stealth detection in 2020
The Japan Defense Ministry has reservered a budget of US$40 for the first step in 2013 to support the hightech Japanese industry to develop radar which will be capable of detecting and tracking stealth aircraft. Sources within the Japanse R&D Defence Institute said that the new radar would detect an enemy stealth fighter at a distance by emitting high-powered radar waves in a focused way. In addition, a new system will be developed to share positional information of the stealth fighter with a central control system to intercept it. The central system can be integrated with fighter-aircraft, ship airdefense and ground-based airdefense missile batteries by datalink technology. In this way each battlefield unit (aircraft, vehicle, ship) may share the data from these new type of radars. New high tech radar systems will be supplemented by other detection sensors (like infrared) in one integrated system.
....
Conclusion
These new detection systems could reverse a 30-year trend that has seen the U.S. Air Force gain an increasing advantage over enemy defenses. The long development time makes the F-35 obsolete when entering operational servies in 2020. It is an old concept, based on ideas of the nineties of the 20th century. The limitations of the stealth design will limit it operational lifetime and it will be impossible to use it as long (30 years) as the F-16. No any F-117 stealth fighter is still in use, after only 17 years of service……….
Perfect stealth detection in 2020
The Japan Defense Ministry has reservered a budget of US$40 for the first step in 2013 to support the hightech Japanese industry to develop radar which will be capable of detecting and tracking stealth aircraft. Sources within the Japanse R&D Defence Institute said that the new radar would detect an enemy stealth fighter at a distance by emitting high-powered radar waves in a focused way. In addition, a new system will be developed to share positional information of the stealth fighter with a central control system to intercept it. The central system can be integrated with fighter-aircraft, ship airdefense and ground-based airdefense missile batteries by datalink technology. In this way each battlefield unit (aircraft, vehicle, ship) may share the data from these new type of radars. New high tech radar systems will be supplemented by other detection sensors (like infrared) in one integrated system.
....
Conclusion
These new detection systems could reverse a 30-year trend that has seen the U.S. Air Force gain an increasing advantage over enemy defenses. The long development time makes the F-35 obsolete when entering operational servies in 2020. It is an old concept, based on ideas of the nineties of the 20th century. The limitations of the stealth design will limit it operational lifetime and it will be impossible to use it as long (30 years) as the F-16. No any F-117 stealth fighter is still in use, after only 17 years of service……….
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According to JDW (18 Sept) Philip Dunne said at DSEI that a split buy of F-35B and F-35A was no longer being considered for the RAF/RN. "....very agonising decisions on which variant to buy (when B was briefly dropped in favour of C), and we have no intentions of reopening those discussions (wrt B and A)" This is at variance with what Hammond has said stating that a number of F-35As may be procured to offset the cut in numbers of B to 48.
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The Japan Defense Ministry has reserved a budget of US$40 for the first step...
It's an interesting idea that F-35 may one day be the RAF/RN's only fast jet. Not that fast, but it's a classification. If things work out well, F-35 could well serve its purpose as a small, multi-role war fighter, capable of self-escort up to a point and able to make a fist of most of the other associated, required roles. It should, that's the idea.
However, it isn't ever going to be a specialist air defence or air superiority (supremecy, or what ever next year's buzz word might be) fighter. It isn't designed with that in mind so it would be foolish to expect it to do that.
It may well come to that, but it is easy to see that we would end up with a very big and significant capability gap with just F-35 doing homeland defence. Unless the Government wants to face the worst possible scenario, a thread on PPRuNe titled "Scrapping the Typhoon was Bonkers", they might need to start thinking about the Typhoon replacement pretty soon. It does do the AD role rather well.
OK, a handful of people here will love to think that F-35 can do the pure AD job and that Typhoon is a dirty word. But, amongst its other, newer roles, it does do AD extremely well. Certainly better than F-35 will.
However, it isn't ever going to be a specialist air defence or air superiority (supremecy, or what ever next year's buzz word might be) fighter. It isn't designed with that in mind so it would be foolish to expect it to do that.
It may well come to that, but it is easy to see that we would end up with a very big and significant capability gap with just F-35 doing homeland defence. Unless the Government wants to face the worst possible scenario, a thread on PPRuNe titled "Scrapping the Typhoon was Bonkers", they might need to start thinking about the Typhoon replacement pretty soon. It does do the AD role rather well.
OK, a handful of people here will love to think that F-35 can do the pure AD job and that Typhoon is a dirty word. But, amongst its other, newer roles, it does do AD extremely well. Certainly better than F-35 will.
Unless the Government wants to face the worst possible scenario, a thread on PPRuNe titled "Scrapping the Typhoon was Bonkers", they might need to start thinking about the Typhoon replacement pretty soon. It does do the AD role rather well.
What's not to like?
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ORAC - That may be in the spec but the flying wing design of X-47/Taranis/Neuron etc makes it difficult to build in a decent A-A radar, not to mention handling characteristics.
Glad Rag - Wiki has it as First flight - 18 June 1981, IOC - October 1983, Retired - 22 April 2008.
So UK plans to buy F/A XX from the US.....???
Glad Rag - Wiki has it as First flight - 18 June 1981, IOC - October 1983, Retired - 22 April 2008.
So UK plans to buy F/A XX from the US.....???
Last edited by WhiteOvies; 26th Sep 2013 at 18:44.
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Good post Courtney
the problem is that if we start looking at a Typhoon replacement NOW any estimate of costs will be based on 2014 - and by the time the damn thing flies it will be show a 500000000% increase and it will be up for cancellation in 2025
the problem is that if we start looking at a Typhoon replacement NOW any estimate of costs will be based on 2014 - and by the time the damn thing flies it will be show a 500000000% increase and it will be up for cancellation in 2025
Anyone want to bet 138 F-35 (prob mix of A & B) will be the only manned aircraft the RAF will have in the not too distant future?