F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

[Courtney Mil]

IP is one thing. Numbers on the front line to do what we need is quite another. Clearly the current government's position on this is "confused" at best. A potential future Labour govenrment's position may be somewhat clearer. I don't know about you, but that worries me.

EDIT: Sorry, in the minute it took me to type this post, another great news post about the programme has appeared. Just to be clear, I was responding to Peter WE. My concerns are not about the programme as a whole, it's about Britain's fututre capability.

[kbrockman]

All this begs the question, if 5 years or more from now, the US DoD or one of its arms (NAVY, MARINES, USAF) come to their senses and decide to seriously reduce order volumes ,will they also cut back on the amount of work they (US Companies) get and use more suppliers from its 'partner' nations?
I somehow seriously doubt that.

There is a reason that even the Dutch with their "official" order for 37 planes will not fully and officially commit before 2015, like they said last week.

One thing seems ever more certain, some of the partners are going to be royally shafted when severe order reductions come into effect, the Americans have done it before with every single STEALTH program and most of the other big military programs, with the ongoing sequestration and the rapidly rising debt levels something will have to give.
All this combined with the fact that the US is once again in a post War period (not unlike Post-Vietnam) with an ongoing crisis and a declining popularity of the military ,not the men but rather the organization as a whole, could very well mean that the defense budget will be cut much more than many realize today.

Officially LM insists on keeping the original order volumes from all of its partners ,I bet even the Canadians who still seem to be suffering from severe cold-feet up until today.
Reality is that only the most oblivious F35 fans believe that the F35 will be produced in the quantities originally predicted, it all seems to come down to a game of chicken whereby the first ones to really officially reduce their orders with LM to more believable levels will be the ones that will have to suffer the most reduction in work share.
I wouldn't be to surprised if we see some surprise moves whereby the bigger customers decide to delay their orders (for whatever reason) just to make sure that they keep the option of cancelling most of their orders ultimately but keep as big a share of the work as possible (eg F35C for US NAVY, UK F35's, Italian F35's,....)

[peter we]

I thought it was confirmed a week ago, 138 is still the number and there is no chance of a split order - its the B.

Neither party will give up on the UK's aerospace industry and the F-35 is more important to the UK for that, than an military asset.

I wasn't aware of any serious calls to abandon the F-35 in the UK - from any party. Confusion? not really.

The Netherlands is a special case, their budget is seriously screwed up and they are no indication of what will happen elsewhere.

South Korea is interesting. Apparently the airforce had predetermined they wanted the F-35 and went through the motions of having a competition.

[SpazSinbad]

Current LM F-35 official order book 09 Sep 2013

For 'kbrockman' This is the current LM F-35 official order book.
F-35 Lightning II Program Status and Fast Facts 09 Sep 2013

"...Planned Quantities*
USAF 1,763 F-35As
USN 260 F-35Cs
USMC 340 F-35Bs/80 F-35Cs
U.K. RAF/RN 138 F-35Bs
Italy 60 F-35As/30 F-35Bs
Netherlands 85 F-35As
Turkey 100 F-35As
Australia 100 F-35As
Norway 52 F-35As
Denmark 30 F-35As
Canada 65 F-35As
Israel 19 F-35As
Japan 42 F-35As
*Based on current programs of record...."

https://www.f35.com/assets/uploads/d...fast_facts.pdf (165Kb)

[kbrockman]

Originally Posted by peter we

The Netherlands is a special case, their budget is seriously screwed up and they are no indication of what will happen elsewhere.

That is a somewhat simplistic representation of reality.
Budget troubles among the partners are more the rule than the exception, Italy, Denmark, Canada and even the US are all seriously suffering on this front, even Australia and Norway are far from certain.
The Japanese still have the right to completely abandon their order in case of further price increases.
The only reason that the Dutch are now in the picture is that politically they had to publicly commit to keep the minority coalition alive, they made it seem like they came to a final compromise between the liberals and labour (the 2 ruling parties) but that is more cosmetics than anything else, the devil is ,as usually, in the details, Samson (fraction leader Labour) clearly stated that they can make up their mind (read change) until 2015 or 2016 ,or even longer when extra in the program delays happen.

Originally Posted by Spaszinbad

For 'kbrockman' This is the current LM F-35 official order book.
F-35 Lightning II Program Status and Fast Facts 09 Sep 2013

Thx Spaszinbad, like you can see, officially all partners keep their orders numbers, nobody wants to loose work share today thereby underwriting my previous statement that this is gong to be a game of chicken as to whome has to cancel first, and before anyone doubts this, it will happen with most of the partners.

[Rhino power]

Looks like LM's 'official' order book needs updating...

-RP

[SpazSinbad]

Over the years LM have made it clear the 'official order record' is changed by governments of countries notifying LM. Best get your government to change the official record. No?

[Finningley Boy]

Sir Michael Graydon: UK now lags behind Argentina - Telegraph

This may well have been read by many on here already, however, just in case, I've attached the link any road up. I have frustratedly thrown no end of objects which have come to hand at the telly every time someone from the Government
has said, in response to any suggestion/accusation that they have over cut HM Forces assets and personnel, that we have the fourth largest defence budget in the world!

FB

[SpazSinbad]

Perhaps Some F-35Bs for South Korea in Future?

Korea Dumps Boeing F-15 For Stealth; F-35 Pacific Sweep Likely 24 Sep 2013 Colin Clark

"...“This outcome is no surprise (I predicted it in the Financial Times on September 17). Boeing didn’t make any mistakes, but it lacked an offering that could match the F-35 in survivability, situational awareness and other key performance parameters,” Loren Thompson, member of the Breaking Defense Board of Contributors and top defense consultant, writes in an email. “South Korea’s decision indicates that Seoul valued combat performance more highly than price in its evaluation.”

And the likely choice of Lockheed Martin’s F-35A — that may well be supplemented by F-35Bs — will place another chain in the long link of F-35 countries in the Pacific: Japan, Singapore and Australia. Add to those the American F-35s at bases throughout the Pacific. Air Force F-35s probably will head to four bases: Misawa, Japan; Kadena, Japan; Osan Air Base, Korea; and Kunsan Air Base, Korea. And F-35Cs will fly from carriers and F-35Bs from other Navy ships and Marine bases in the region.

To get some idea as to why capabilities trumped price — something Reuters and other news agencies said yesterday was not likely to happen because of South Korea’s fiscal situation — consider that 15 former South Korean Air Force chiefs of staff publicly argued that their country must buy a stealth aircraft.

Below are some excerpts from two interviews with them. Note the comments that DAPA must take stealth into account and not focus solely on price...."

Korea Dumps Boeing F-15 For Stealth; F-35 Pacific Sweep Likely « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary

[JSFfan]

The full program is unlikely to be cancelled at this point.
The largest customer - the USAF - has painted itself into a corner. Even if the JSF is acquired as planned, it will still have a majority force of 40-year-old jets by 2030.

LO that's a bit early to switch tack, the naysayers song changes verse at IOC doesn't it?

[SpazSinbad]

F-35: New fighter creates new culture for 21st Century and beyond

F-35: New fighter creates new culture for 21st Century and beyond 25 Sep 2013 Air Force News Agency

F-35: New fighter creates new culture for 21st Century and beyond | Aviation & Air Force News at DefenceTalk

[PhilipG]

I notice that the USAF is still on record as wanting to purchase 1,763 F35As.
What is unclear to me is what they are going to do with them, if as we understand the c350 A10s are to be retired early, and the USAF has according to various sources between 1,000 and 1,100 active F16s, this is before any sequestration cuts to fund the F35 program.

Soon after some more cuts it would seem that the USAF plan would call for each active F16 to be replaced by 2 F35s.

Could someone please point out the error in this analysis.

If I am correct and the USAF has to reduce the number its purchases, by about 800 the unit price will go through the roof, making it even less affordable.

[peter we]

Could someone please point out the error in this analysis.

I'd guess, its over a 40 year period, so early models would be retired

[Courtney Mil]

Originally Posted by JSFfan

the naysayers song changes verse at IOC doesn't it?

The problem there is, to you, a naysayer is anyone who ever spots a problem with the program or dares to express any opinion other than total faith and public worship.

[JSFfan]

Come on CM, that's a logic fail to say that the air forces are in a corner and it's the usual shift from LO and the clowns when their 'cancelled tomorrow' nonsense even looks silly to them

[Ronald Reagan]

Ha ha the idea of the USA getting 1,763 F-35As is just not going to happen. They will be lucky to get 763!!!!! I can imagine them having something like 500 or 600 or so. The navy and marines will end up with far less to.
Even by retiring legacy aircraft now the cost is going to be to great to buy so many F-35s. Also once there is another round or two of BRAC cuts there will be a lot less bases and fighter wings.
I remember when the USAF wanted 700 or so F-22s, then it was 380 and in the end they got 180!

[t43562]

FWIW this whole thing seems familiar to me - big project, can't fail, sacrifice more and more and more to it because you've removed all other options.

Success becomes an arbitrary issue - eventually you can make all sorts of **** designs work if you are indomitable enough and have a lot of cash reserves.

The end of it is whether other people can do better.

I've been in this position - indomitable big spender gets killed by another entity whose assumptions about what matters were more realistic. They appeared to do more with less although that wasn't true. We just did a lot of things that weren't actually important and not enough of what was. Mostly we tried to make unworkable things work which costs a lot of time and energy.

Right up to and after the coup-de-grace management went on pouring out oodles of bull****. Hence I have no respect for public companies or their statements about how good anything is - they are there to represent a particular viewpoint which is one that favours their stock. They may stop short of lying but that still allows enormous leeway.

[Rhino power]

Originally Posted by SpazSinbad

Over the years LM have made it clear the 'official order record' is changed by governments of countries notifying LM

I think the Dutch government 'notifying' LM of their decision to more than halve their original order of the Joint****eFighter from 85 to 37 is offiicial enough, don't you?

-RP

[ORAC]

"...Planned Quantities*
USAF 1,763 F-35As

No more money to cover F-35 delays, says USAF

The US Air Force's top civilian leaders say that orders for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will be cut if costs continue to rise.

"We have told the contractor and the programme office that there is no more money," USAF secretary Michael Donley told the US Senate Armed Services Committee on 20 March. "To the extent that if there continues to be cost growth or challenges it's going to be paid for by tails." Donley said that a fiscal year 2013 budget decision to defer production of some aircraft will cost money, but that those numbers are not yet available. Some of the deferred conventional take-off and landing F-35As would be bought later, "or not at all", he added......

[LowObservable]

But you need the "official" partner numbers to maintain the production ramp-up, and technically, nobody can say for sure that the Cloggies won't buy 48 more jets, or that the UK won't take another 90, until the production line closes.

On the other hand, if they do start seeing more FMS numbers outside the partnership, and don't need the UK and Netherlands orders as badly, they will point to their reduced offtake as they take work away from the Eurobacksliders and use it to lure new customers into the program.

For the record, by the way, "prediction is very difficult, especially when it concerns the future" and saying that the JSF program should be cancelled is not the same as saying that it will be cancelled. I have generally avoided the latter because I do not underestimate the power of inertia and human vanity.