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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Old 17th Apr 2013, 17:24
  #1881 (permalink)  
 
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As it turned out, Moomin, it was quite interesting as it triggered your analysis. Maybe a rather selfish, national perspective, but I hope the Dutch do stay for our sake and your points do offer some hope. It should be a matter of buying the best for a country's needs, but it looks to me like The Netherlands may be driven by other issues. NATO commonality must be an issue too - in some ways a good point to consider.
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 17:32
  #1882 (permalink)  
 
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SAAB have a plane in development that carries halfish the armament that the F35 does and has less range than the F35B...

So the F-35 can carry 8 x AAMs and 4 x LGBs? Wake me up when that happens.



As for range, given that the F-35B has about the same internal fuel fraction as the Gripen, but even if it ever gets external tanks has about the same external fuel in pounds (on an aircraft twice the size) I would be interested to know how it gets better range.

Last edited by LowObservable; 17th Apr 2013 at 17:33.
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 17:45
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When Scotland get their independence and join NATO, no doubt they will be placing an order for this fine aircraft and that might help keep the price down for the rest of us?
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 17:50
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Just for grins...
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 18:50
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LO are you confusing the UK with Denmark? They are buying the A model not the B. I thought I'd throw in the normal adnauseum refrain about lack of range and payload with respect to the Gripen using the B's specs Then again we have some fairly aircraft carrier specific requirements that they don't.

To be fair I did use the Gripen D's payload and range cos that's the 'cheap' one but the new one is still an ongoing development and if it goes like every other aircraft development I'm sure we'll see the over promise and under deliver, exceeding costs cycle start on the Gripen E.

Last edited by eaglemmoomin; 17th Apr 2013 at 19:11.
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 18:59
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I like that Courtney

Q ... If you pull up do the eyes close ?

Last edited by CoffmanStarter; 17th Apr 2013 at 19:01.
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 19:17
  #1887 (permalink)  
 
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Surely any assessment of loss exchange ratios in the 2015-2020 timeframe is a fairly pointless exercise - for an aircraft that won't be in service by then!
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Old 17th Apr 2013, 19:50
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EM - Denmark? [Shome mishtake here shurely. - Ed.] And the B was the version you compared it to.

I would also check Saab's track record before you assume delays, overruns &c on JAS 39E.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 00:49
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Surely any assessment of loss exchange ratios in the 2015-2020 timeframe is a fairly pointless exercise - for an aircraft that won't be in service by then!
You'd better flick an email to the USMC..they think they are going IOC in 2015

Also remember we went through all the simulation stuff a couple of weeks ago and you admitted to not understanding it then, so let's not go there again.
That was when you said you have no idea about the f-35 sims ..wasn't it?
Paraphasing Bentley..... Trying to speculate on something that you do not fully understand is based on false assumptions and false ground rules. If you go in with false assumptions and false ground rules, you will get false answers



"Air Cdre Bentley : If I can talk to simulations, and then Gary can—he probably talks best to simulations—I would say this. You can only truly represent what the F35 is capable of and what other fifth generation and other fourth generation aeroplanes are capable of when you have all of the classified information. Trying to simulate something that you do not fully understand is based on false assumptions and false ground rules. If you go in with false assumptions and false ground rules, you will get false answers."

Last edited by JSFfan; 18th Apr 2013 at 00:55.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 00:59
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While I am generally pro-JSF, trying to engage JSFfan is kinda like trying to reason with the screaming madman on the street corner. Reminds me of...oh never mind.

Anyway, just ignore/block him - he adds little or nothing to the debate. In fact, as a supporter, he adds nothing to the cause either!
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 01:40
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The Dutch seem to have a waver of the OT&E commitment that they brought the 2 f-35 for
eaglemmoomin second paragraph sums up nicely what may happen


As to the Gripen E, if the package price is $150M ea when $150M is the Super Hornet package price ea and the F-35A is FMS package of $180M ea ..it is really false advertising using the word 'cheap' and Gripen in the same sentence



this guy has issues with the prices and such going around and his links are here
Canada and the F-35|F-35|Forum :: F-16.net

Economically seen it’s not possible, to my opinion, on the long term, building jets and hardly not get them sold
Saab never really succeeded to sell Gripens. 38 Gripens and that’s it. Besides leasing 28 Gripens (Swedish Airforce). Eventually, Saab opted to sell 500 and 400 Gripens

Will you will look at this (or anyone else)? Were I am wrong or what could may be right? Gr. m

Price per Gripen (as stated here)
Quote: The price per plane for Switzerland is solid and lands of 100 million Swiss francs, or 745 million Swedish kronor, for a Gripen E-plane, said Tagesschau.
Sweden, however, said to buy plane between 115 and 130 million Swiss francs (860-970 million) per plane. The number varies depending on the equipment Sweden decide to buy the plane.
According to Defense Minister Tagesschau Karin Enstrom has confirmed that Sweden is paying more per plane.



Price per jet:
Swiss:
CHF 100 = € 81.8 =$105.6

Sweden:
CHF 115 = € 94.07 = $ 121.44
CHF 130 = € 106.34 = $ 137.28


Development costs
Switzerland does not have to pay development costs

Quote: Entwicklungskosten verlangt haben. Offenbar geht es um 330 Millionen Franken, wodurch die Gesamtkosten der Gripen-Beschaffung auf 3,46 Milliarden steigen würden.

Gemäss den Gripen-Kritikern besteht die Gefahr, dass Kosten einfach vom Entwicklungs- in den Upgradetopf umgelagert werden – und diese späteren Aufrüstungen wird die Schweiz bezahlen müssen. Deshalb ist es entscheidend, welche Ausstattung und welche technische Leistung für den Jet vereinbart werden, den die Schweiz kauft


Google translator
Quote: Have called for development costs. Apparently there's about 330 million francs, bringing the total cost of the Gripen procurement would rise to 3.46 billion.

According to critics, the Gripen is a risk that the costs are simply rearranged development in the pot upgrade - and this will have to pay for upgrades later to Switzerland. Therefore, it is important to decide what features and what kind of technical performance for the jet are agreed that Switzerland buys




Excluding development cost: Package deal
o CHF 3,126 million > €2,557.06 million = $3,301.16 million
o Per Gripen E: 116.23 = $150.05 million

Including development costs: Package deal
o CHF 330 million > € 269. million = $348.49 million
o CHF 3,460 million >€ 2,830.27 million = $ 3,653.87 million
o Per Gripen E: €128.64 = $166.08 million


Twoseater: Gripen F
One newly disclosed development is that Sweden and Switzerland plan to operate only the single-seat JAS 39E. “It’s a cost question,” Nystrom explained. “If we were to go with a two-seater, we’d like to have an enhanced back seat, and we don’t have the money for that.” Weapon system operator training would also consume more resources.


Swiss: lease 11 Gripen C/D

Lease: 11 Gripen C/D’s (8 Gripen C / 3 Gripen D)
CHF 44 million per year > € 35.99 million = $ 46.47 million
Till 2021, at least 5 years > CHF 220 million = € 179.96 million = $ 232.33 million

22 Gripen E: CHF 3,126 billion
Lease: CH 220 million
Total: CHF 3,346 billion > € 2.737.01 = $3,533.49

Total per Gripen E: CHF 152.09 million = € 124.41 million = $160.61 million

Quote: The F-5Es have to be retired soon, so Switzerland will lease 11 JAS 39C/D Gripens in 2016-17 as a bridge to the new version. The first of 22 JAS 39Es will arrive in mid-2018. Eleven aircraft are to be handed over by the end of 2019 with the remainder arriving in 2020-21.
The JAS 39Cs will be returned to Sweden one-for-one as the JAS 39Es are delivered, but the JAS 39Ds (three of them) may be retained longer. There is no current plan to replace the country’s Boeing F/A-18C/D Hornets: “We will operate those aircraft as long as possible, and as long as Boeing supports them,” Antognini says.



Flying costs
A. Swiss flying cost Gripen E (based on 180 hours, Swiss)
22 Gripen E: operating cost per year, next 30 years

Per year: CHF 100 million = € 81.8 million = $ 105.6 million
Per Gripen E: CHF 4.54 million = €3.71 million = $ 4.79 million

180 hours: CHF 25,222.22 = € 20,631.67 = $26,635.49 per flying hour
Source: Lt Gen. Markus Gygax, commander Swiss Airforce
Article: Getting the Gripen, Airforces Montly, jan. 2012


B. Swiss flying cost Gripen E (based on 180 hours, Swiss)

Per year: CHF102 = € 83.44 = $ 107.72 (22 Gripens)
Gripen E: CHF 4,63 million > per flying hour: CHF 25,722.22 = €21,040.67 = $27,163.51

Quote: Estimated in the draft are the operating costs: 102 million francs per year (6 million Swiss francs for the operation of real estate included). The operating cost per hour in the template are not explicitly mentioned. This amount, taking into account the specified annual costs for personnel (24 million), maintenance (51 million) and fuel (21 million), more so than in previous presentations Saab journalists presented. The calculation of operating costs per hour sets the Switzerland based on a flight operating time of 180 hours per year. At 22 Gripen, this gives cost of 24'242 francs per flight hour. Saab announced during a presentation in Sweden at a price of less than 10,000 francs. (Basler Zeitung) Here is still a need for clarification. (Basler Zeitung)



Either Saab claims less than CHF10,000 per flying hour
€8,179.96 = $10,560.33 per flying hour

May be this concerns a specific Swedisch situation? For instance Swedisch pilots does not make comparable flying hours as the Swiss (180 hours). As well as the Dutch and Belgium (180 hours)

Interesting, Dutch National Audit Office; when less F35’s will be bought flying hours will raise from 180 hours to 240 flying hours per F35 per year

Preparing For War
NATO demand 160-180 flying hours per pilot per year. If the entire Swedish Air Force would be at this high alert it would stress the economy a lot. A squadron also need time to train new pilots and to replace the old guys retiring or leaving for HQ duty or schools. Therefore there will never be a time when all pilots in the Air Force are in combat status.


There are very few Swedish pilots with a 1000 flying hours

Flying hours Gripen
(may be I am be totally wrong calculating, tried to make some kind of calculation having some idea)

Swedisch Airforce
Total Gripen flying hours (after first delivery):
2000: 12,000 flying hours

2004: 45,000 flying hours (142 Gripens)
2000-2004 > 33,000 flying hours > Per Gripen: 4 years: 232 flying hours > 58 flying hours per year

2005: 60,000 flying hours (159 Gripens)
2004-2005 > 15,000 flying hours > Per Gripen: 94,3 flying hours per year

2007: 96,320 flying hours (193 Gripens)
2005-2007 > 33,320 flying hours > Per Gripen 2 years: 172.6 fling hours > 86.3 flying hours per year

2000-2007 > 84,320 flying hours > Per Gripen 7 years: 436.8 flying hours > 62,4 flying hours per year (193 Gripens)
2008 > 100,000 flying hours




1. The Swiss don’t pay developmentcosts

2. All costs will be paid by the Swedish government, when development of the Gripen E will be more expensive

3. A Gripen F will not be developed. Gripen D’s have to be ordered as well, or training in Sweden?

4. Not included reconnaissance pods, as well as targeting pods (The Swiss want to introduce this capability)

5. Updating will be extremely expensive, when not that much Gripen E’s will be ordered

6. The Gripen E does not exist yet and will have to be developed
According the Swiss chief flight engineer; 70% of the Gripen E exists on paper.

7. Conclusion: after delivery of the first Gripen E’s these jets still will have to be tested for some years. It will take a long time before the Gripen E will be really operational

8. There will be no Gripen F (two seater)

9. The Gripen E will be more expensive, there are no examples of such projects without cost overruns. Either the Swedish government guaranties and will pay cost overruns concerning Swiss Gripens

10. Considering as well, to build a Gripen E a Gripen C will be needed

11. The real cost of a Swedish Gripen E can be seen as the cost of a Gripen C included (as well as development cost included)

12. The Swiss still can decide not to order the Gripen E (When the Swiss population votes against ordering the Gripen)

13. In that case, when no partner will be found, Sweden does not order the Gripen E as well



Source: Gripen THE GRIPEN IS LIKE A KNIFE THAT CUTS BAD
The chief engineer of the Swiss Air Force criticized the Swedish fighter jet

Quote: The list of whistleblowers, however, shows the opposite. The wings, for example, exist only in the computer. The radar is true in parts of the prototype and many components are still in development. Because of this new radar in the aircraft tip future weighs 200 pounds more, the Saab Gripen must extend back to 37 centimeters, so it does not tilt forward. This explains Björn Danielsson, an ex-fighter pilot of the Air Force and consultant of Gripen manufacturer Saab.

Rates: march 21, 2013

Last edited by JSFfan; 18th Apr 2013 at 02:16.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 02:51
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Unfortunately true.

I am a F-35 supporter... and F-35B especially.

However, I do recognize the many difficulties and problems that have occurred, and even though most have been fairly well corrected, cost and slow development rate remain considerable concerns.


That said, JSFfan (and certain other posters on other boards that may well be JSFfan by other names) frustrate me considerably, as they regularly destroy any attempt at a reasoned debate, and cause those whose minds used to be open to evidence to harden their positions and close their minds in reaction to his incessant screaming of "all's well with F-35 and everyone else is stupid".
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 05:59
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Reminds me of...oh never mind.
Like SAMXXV but without the good points.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 08:02
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I'm amazed it's taken some of you so long to wake up to to the disruptive and negative effect JSFfan has on this thread. On my ignore list now.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 08:07
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"Surely any assessment of loss exchange ratios in the 2015-2020 timeframe is a fairly pointless exercise - for an aircraft that won't be in service by then!"


"You'd better flick an email to the USMC..they think they are going IOC in 2015"...

I'm sure they (USMC) will (and I have actually read some of this thread, so was already aware of that!), and even if they're not fully ready no doubt they will be pressurized into saying they are, but the hint is the letter I in IOC. Time will tell, but I don't think many nations will have fully operational JSF units up and running by 2020. That's my personal opinion, there was another hint in the

Last edited by Biggus; 18th Apr 2013 at 08:10.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 10:51
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M2, as you well know, I have been alive to JSFfan's annoying behavior for a while now. There is a whiff of the juvenile about it all and an amazingly selective memory. There is also a lot of picking up other people's responses on other forums and pasting them in here as if they are exactly what he was thinking - or in some cases his own words.

I can read all the internet material I wish to, I don't need some kid to keep pasting chunks of it here so that I have to wade through his rubbish to get at the discussion.

Back to business...

I'm not at all surprised to see Switzerland waltzing towards the Grippen - maybe not necessarily for all the right reasons. But assuming the Swiss aren't likely to fight Russia or China anytime soon, it could turn out to be a reasonable choice for them in the long term.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 11:52
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NL comission presentations so far:
First up, SaaB Gripen
-Best value for money
-Got a lot of follow up questions
-Really bad English

2nd F35 by LM
-Shady second hand car dealer impression
-many vague promises about future items/plans.
-Used old sales numbers to show that scale of economy is crucial to keep the price low
-Managed to insult (granted not deliberatelly) one of the commission members.

3rd Rafale by Dassault
-Seemed very good prepared
-Was very open about pretty much everything
- The only thing he didn't answer was unit price. He said that would be determined if the Dutch opened up for a new full evaluation off all craft and would be dependent on type of aircraft, specific equipment, spare parts and ammo delivered with the aircraft. There would also be access to and participation with the upgrade projects, also There would be a substantial order from dassault in the Dutch economy as part of the offset.


LTG Bogdan today, just missed the livefeed -> anybody who saw it pls comment.

Last Boeing for the SH starting 14.30h
Live debat plenaire zaal - Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 005&title=Wttewaal van Stoetwegenzaal&analoog=Encoder06_Wittewaal_Extern350k&adsl=E ncoder06_Wittewaal_Extern500k

If you want to see you'll have to select connection type first
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 12:06
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Kbrock,

Thanks for the update. Breaking news!!! Smart move by Dassault to offer the offset, might that make up for being under-cut by SAAB?

Sounds like a poor effort by LM, but I'm not that surprised that they're fielding old sales figures after Bloomberg quoted the programme as seven years behind schedule and 70 percent over initial cost estimates.

Last edited by Courtney Mil; 18th Apr 2013 at 12:11.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 13:09
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looks like Boeing is also very good prepared (didn't saw the first part though) and seems to promisse offset possibilities from the whole Boeing company, not defense part alone.
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Old 18th Apr 2013, 13:29
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Italy May Cut $6.6 Billion in Defense Spending This Year - Bloomberg

Looks like the Italians' quite frankly ludicrous official order of 90 jets is about to take another massive hit...possibly fatally.

Reading of them cutting their measly budget down to E20 billion, suddenly makes me feel rather fortunate that I'm in the RAF!!
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