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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Old 1st Apr 2019, 07:33
  #11761 (permalink)  
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Fleet to now be at least 144.....

AW&ST: http://aviationweek.com/defense/usaf...mpty-back-seat

USAF Plans To Fly New F-15 With Empty Back Seat

Boeing’s two-seat F-15EX aircraft will be flown with an empty back seat by squadrons now flying single-seat F-15Cs, the U.S. Air Force confirms to Aerospace Daily. Although derived from an international version of the two-seat F-15E, the Air Force plans to acquire at least 144 F-15EX aircraft, including 80 over the next five years, to replace an aging fleet of mainly single-seat F-15Cs.

Boeing designed the F-15EX to operate in both the air superiority role of the single-seat F-15C and the fighter-bomber role of the F-15E. The latter includes a back-seat station for a weapon systems officer to manage the munitions and sensors for land attack while the pilot in the front seat concentrates on flying and air-to-air engagements. The F-15EX comes with two functional cockpits, but the pilot can manage air-to-air and air-to-ground missions alone in the front seat, the Air Force says. F-15EX aircraft delivered to squadrons now flying single-seat F-15Cs will not be staffed with an expanded cadre of weapon system officers, which would leave the back seat of the two-seater empty.

“Fighter squadrons that receive the F-15EX are projected to retain their current mission and crew composition,” an Air Force spokeswoman says in response to questions by Aerospace Daily. Although the role of former F-15C pilots flying F-15EXs would expand under the current plan, the Air Force does not expect an increase in training costs during or after the transition. “There should be no need to expand aircrew training requirements,” the spokeswoman says.

Boeing offered the Air Force a single-seat version of the F-15X for the F-15C replacement, which was designated as the F-15CX concept. The Air Force decided to buy only the two-seat F-15EX, which minimizes nonrecurring engineering costs.

The F-15EX is a straightforward derivative of the F-15QA ordered by the Qatari air force. It features a lightened wing, but still carries the same load of weapons and sensors as the F-15E. The F-15EX also includes other upgrades added since the Air Force last ordered the F-15E in 2001, including fly-by-wire flight controls, the Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System, the Advanced Display Core Processor II mission computer and a new cockpit with a large format display.



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Old 1st Apr 2019, 19:18
  #11762 (permalink)  
 
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Looking at the price of the fa-18 and the cost difference to the f-15. I doubt they will get it below the f-35.

Why don't you look at the USAF budget docs and prove yourself wrong, rather than wasting everyone's time?

https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/...-18-152821-713

The FA-18EF with pods, is bumping at the F-35 cost now

Why don't you look at the Navy budget docs and prove yourself wrong, rather than wasting everyone's time AGAIN?

https://www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/...BA1-4_BOOK.pdf
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Old 1st Apr 2019, 23:04
  #11763 (permalink)  
 
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RAFEngO74to09,


"2019 F-35A Demo Team practice at Luke AFB, AZ - nice !"

Nice indeed! Imagine when the B adds its Harrier style upping and downing and backwards and forwards to that, the RAF will have a rather impressive display item to show along side the Typhoon.

Thanks for posting.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 07:32
  #11764 (permalink)  
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Dated April 1st..... Nice photoshopped two seat version though........

https://theaviationist.com/2019/04/0...et-f-35f-jsmf/

Revealed: Israel’s Top Secret F-35F JSMF

Secret Two-Seat Variant Uses Additional Crewmember to Counter Anti-F-35 Social Media Posts.

Israel has unveiled their previously classified F-35F Nebekh Joint Social Media Fighter (JSMF). The new rear seat position in the two-seat F-35F Nebekh is occupied by the SMO or Social Media Officer. The modification is in response to threats to the F-35 in the social media space. Gen Hadir Uffani of the IDF told reporters, “The F-35’s primary threats exist in the social media space, so we have made a special variant of the Joint Strike Fighter to counter this threat in real-time.”

The SMO suite consists of integrated sensor fusion that monitors Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat for flamers leveling criticism against the Joint Strike Fighter program. When critical social media posts from internet know-it-alls and trolls are detected, the system can respond in real-time by assigning a massive arsenal of cat memes to interdict the threat. The cat memes are stored in a special, low-observable internal hard drive in the aircraft’s stealthy weapons’ bay.


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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 09:38
  #11765 (permalink)  
 
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Flight - "USA stops Lockheed Martin F-35 parts deliveries to Turkey"

Wasn't Turkey supposed to be doing the heavy maintenance on European F-35's?
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 11:05
  #11766 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LowObservable View Post
Looking at the price of the fa-18 and the cost difference to the f-15. I doubt they will get it below the f-35.

Why don't you look at the USAF budget docs and prove yourself wrong, rather than wasting everyone's time?

https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/...-18-152821-713

The FA-18EF with pods, is bumping at the F-35 cost now

Why don't you look at the Navy budget docs and prove yourself wrong, rather than wasting everyone's time AGAIN?

https://www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/...BA1-4_BOOK.pdf
If you have something specific you wish to share out of the 118 page doc. I'd be pleased.
Until then, this may help. It comes out to $83.6M per tail
"The Navy intends to spend about $9.2 billion to procure 110 Block III Super Hornets from FY19-FY23, budget documents show. "
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-...-and-upgrades/
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 11:07
  #11767 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Flight - "USA stops Lockheed Martin F-35 parts deliveries to Turkey"

Wasn't Turkey supposed to be doing the heavy maintenance on European F-35's?
A link to the Flight article that works...

An article on the subject in today's The Times.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 12:42
  #11768 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Wasn't Turkey supposed to be doing the heavy maintenance on European F-35's?
They need something to maintain first. Turkey was supposed to produce quite a few parts for F-35. I'm sure there are a lot of American companies who can do that instead, but it'll take even more time and money. I don't think Pentagon want to wait longer or spend more.

And Pentagon is not the only organization that's been waiting for the F-35 for too long. UK built an entire aircraft carrier to use F-35's. Is it possible to requip it somehow for a different type?

That's a real disaster for the project. And considering the latest Markel speeches in Germany, it may be a huge disaster for the NATO, too. Not that anyone still needs it, but it's also true that nobody wants to be the one dismantling it.

Erdogan, however, is not short of choice of modern fighters. Apart from the obvious European choices - Rafale, Typhoon, oldie but goldie Tornado, Grippen-E - his good relationships with Russia also opens Su-35 for him. And that's the best choice by far - F-35 is not as much better as it is much more expensive - and Turkey can easily get their hands on French and Malaysian electronics Sukhoi uses for their export fighters. I'm not current on Turkey's relations with Israel, but if they are any good, Israel makes the best radars and they have plenty of experience installing them on Su-fighters.

Has Pentagon made the biggest mistake in its history?
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 14:24
  #11769 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
USAF Plans To Fly New F-15 With Empty Back Seat
It's not empty. It's where R2-D2 goes.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 18:37
  #11770 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Secret Two-Seat Variant Uses Additional Crewmember to Counter Anti-F-35 Social Media Posts.
Pure Quality!

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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 20:20
  #11771 (permalink)  
 
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If you have something specific you wish to share out of the 118 page doc. I'd be pleased.

And if you would demonstrate that you are not too thick, or too lazy, to search and analyze an entirely standard US budget document, your opinions might be worth taking seriously.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 23:03
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Originally Posted by LowObservable View Post
If you have something specific you wish to share out of the 118 page doc. I'd be pleased.

And if you would demonstrate that you are not too thick, or too lazy, to search and analyze an entirely standard US budget document, your opinions might be worth taking seriously.
You may note that I quoted from my link of one page, on the budget for the F/A-18. To put up a 118 page doc as a throw away, is without merit.
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-...-and-upgrades/
Until then, this may help. It comes out to $83.6M per tail
"The Navy intends to spend about $9.2 billion to procure 110 Block III Super Hornets from FY19-FY23, budget documents show. "

It's also widely reported that in 2006 year dollars the F-15 costed out at about $100M,
F-15E $108 million [2006$]
F-15K $100 million [2006$]

Last edited by golder; 3rd Apr 2019 at 00:20.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 01:51
  #11773 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
For whom? About the last place I'd go when I heard "we'll do our maintenance here" if all of my NATO allies are an option is .. Turkey. Who came up with this brilliant plan? (Granted, my experience is more than a decade old, so perhaps some things have changed culturally).
As a matter of fact Turkey has been a well-established industrial manufacturer long before your experience a decade ago. They have a huge composites industry that makes parts for Italian ship-builders. Maltese Falcon's masts were manufactured in Turkey. Their shipbuilding industry builds most of the world's largest fishing vessels. Even Norwegians prefer to build their ships in Turkey. Turkey also make more cars than Italy and sits right behind UK in those statistics. Turkish Airlines serves more countries than any other airline.

In other words, your view of Turkey may be slightly dated. By about a century, I'd say.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 21:06
  #11774 (permalink)  
 
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Not Shanahan's finest hour. So much for the 50% less CPFH.
Rep Matt Gaetz notes that apparently DOD provided him. Showing that F-15X would cost $27,000-$30,000 per hour. A 90-$100m F-15ex cost
The 6 minute video of testimony.

Last edited by golder; 3rd Apr 2019 at 22:08.
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 03:24
  #11775 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ProPax View Post
In other words, your view of Turkey may be slightly dated. By about a century, I'd say.
And you are wrong by about 70 years. My impressions were formed form 80's to 90's. If things have gotten better since, GREAT!
But with Erdogan being a likely cause of another brain drain, I would hedge my bets.
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 07:08
  #11776 (permalink)  
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 08:11
  #11777 (permalink)  
 
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I would guess both unit cost numbers are right. It's just depending what unit cost you are quoting.




Last edited by golder; 4th Apr 2019 at 08:31.
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 11:30
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
And you are wrong by about 70 years. My impressions were formed form 80's to 90's. If things have gotten better since, GREAT!
But with Erdogan being a likely cause of another brain drain, I would hedge my bets.
That's another Turkey strength. Turkish industry is very independent and actually dictates a lot of political decisions. In all honesty, I've never heard of brain drain from Turkey. Do you have some reading for me to do on that topic? I see that Turkey always forces a condition in all government contracts that young Turkish engineers work alongside foreign managers. Saw that at the mountain dams construction, but then again, I'm not claiming full knowledge of the field.
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 11:50
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Just thinking out loud. (Sorry for the political angle.) Pentagon is the party most dependent on Turkey to produce the F-35 components. But it's also the Pentagon that pushes the block on S-400. It looks strangely superficial and conflicting. You just don't push away the country that you depend on so much for a program. And S-400 is far from new. It can't be such a huge threat. If anything, Pentagon should be interested to see how it performs against its planes and work on countermeasures.

We know Erdogan is not a pushover and will likely react in some spectacularly explosive fashion. It's also very likely that Turkey leaving the program will delay the program even further and make it even more expensive which in turn will justify the Pentagon to pull the plug on the whole shebang. Can it be that some faction in the Pentagon are simply trying to get rid of the program this way?

Lockheed is a great innovator but their innovations are always so "ahead of its time" that they take decades (and a lot of money) to realize, and by the time they are flying, it's too late and nobody wants (or needs) the aircraft they produced, and the technology has stepped further forward making the aircraft irrelevant or even obsolete. I'm thinking about SR-71 - by the time it was ready to spy on the USSR, the latter already had MiG-25 and R-40 missiles; F-117 - even during the development it was quite clear that Soviet radars can easily track it (likely because it was based on the scientific research done by a Soviet scientist).

The F-35's "common platform" concept is of the same kind - looked amazing on paper but turned into a nightmare and limited the capabilities of all three variants. Moreover, it turned out that Lockheed didn't have and couldn't develop the vertical take-off design, so they had to invite Yakovlev's engineers who worked on Yak-141 to develop it and delegate the manufacturing to Rolls-Royce.

I know that Lockheed's "Skunk Works" is considered the most advanced engineering team but in my very humble opinion they are nothing more than a bunch of childish dreamers who are always trying to perform way beyond their engineering and technical abilities. Harsh?
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 13:07
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Originally Posted by ProPax View Post
That's another Turkey strength. Turkish industry is very independent and actually dictates a lot of political decisions. In all honesty, I've never heard of brain drain from Turkey. Do you have some reading for me to do on that topic? I see that Turkey always forces a condition in all government contracts that young Turkish engineers work alongside foreign managers. Saw that at the mountain dams construction, but then again, I'm not claiming full knowledge of the field.
In the last five or so years, and this is directly related to the "coup" and the reaction to it, the intelligensia in Turkey has come under political attack by Erdogan's government: educators, etc. This is the kind of thing that can (though may not) lead to a brain drain wherein that core of any modern / industrial society may begin to migrate. Has that happened to a damaging extent? Unclear at this time, and it hopefully won't.
We see a bit of the Venezuelan brain drain where I live, as people have arrived from there over the past five years. The Brain Drain coming out of Mexico and into Texas has been happening for decades. A good number of my neighbors and friends are either related to, or are, educated people (many of them are graduates of the university in Monterry) who cannot find opportunity in their home country. So they come here.

As to the "need" for Turkey to be part of the F-35: we have plenty of allies, and that "plan" preceded the Erdogan government showing up. If they become politically unreliable, a deal can be made with someone else. (I suspect that UK industry would not mind a plus up in terms of engineering/manitenance business, for one). What I think was the attraction of Turkey was cost/burdened hour, or the perception of lower labor costs.

I agree with you that the longer term plan for the F-35 has run into Erdogan's choosing to change course for Turkey, and the US reacting to that. Where I disagree is your implication that the Pentagon is acting in isolation. No, it isn't. This whole mess is a part of the political continuum. Politics never ends; there is no stop in play in politics.

As to the skunk works and the "one size fits all" - One Size Fits All was a Congressional Mandate. Pure Politics. Both Boeing and LM tried to make a one size fits all to meet that requirement. It's the F-111 all over again.
As to pushing the edge of the tech envelope and reaching the point of diminishing returns, that's the subject of a PhD dissertation, not a post on PPRuNe.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 4th Apr 2019 at 13:17.
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