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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 00:25
  #9521 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MSOCS
From a UK Govt perspective, we are buying X many aircraft at "various" prices as we slide on down the production cost curve over time. 500 British companies manufacture components for every F-35 built (or to be built), most of which are agnostic of variant. So, over the life of the Program, those 500 British companies earn revenue from Y (total Program build) aircraft and pay tax to the Exchequer on those earnings. Y is much greater than X and the concomitant tax on Y is around 2-3 times the predicted cost for X.

That's Level 1 partnership right there,in a nutshell. Now, I already intimated that reality and paper promises rarely match. So, we'll see right? None of the above is in MY midnight wet dreams though, I can heartily assure you:

U.K. To Earn Billions On F-35 Work | ShowNews content from Aviation Week
Yes, the song remains the same but it is 30 years on, now, you know...

" 500 British companies manufacture components for every F-35 built" OR . "those 500 British companies earn revenue from"

Name them, and list their results from Companies House, who, luckily, will have just updated their 6 monthlies.

At least Td detailed his precis, your is nothing but Toby Jug on crystal meh...

Go on then....
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 00:26
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Originally Posted by RAFEngO74to09
Nice 4-ship formation flying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZmIeYtrUSs
Yeah flying, nice. Lo viz black ideal for daytime CAS yeah baby...
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 00:54
  #9523 (permalink)  
 
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MSOCS,
From a UK Govt perspective, we are buying X many aircraft at "various" prices as we slide on down the production cost curve over time. 500 British companies manufacture components for every F-35 built (or to be built), most of which are agnostic of variant. So, over the life of the Program, those 500 British companies earn revenue from Y (total Program build) aircraft and pay tax to the Exchequer on those earnings. Y is much greater than X and the concomitant tax on Y is around 2-3 times the predicted cost for X.
We are now back to my original quote to you, you can't assure nothing... I asked you two specific questions and received back fog rolling in from the bay...
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 01:14
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Haters are gonna hate, and JATKers are gonna JATKoff.

For all of the great press recently, let's not forget: that thing's overpriced. You are all kindly invited to thank the Goldwater-Nichols Act for this particular "advancement" in combat aviation.
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 07:13
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Turbine, I asked you to explain your point and I appreciate that you took the time to compile more than a sound bite of denial this time. That said, you can't predict the future any more than I can.

I pointed out the particular business model to you. That's the model that's been enacted since 2001 and will continue to be enacted. Whether you choose to believe and/or accept that is something I couldn't care less about, frankly, but you can't assure me that there won't be a net gain to the Treasury on all things F-35.

15% of EVERY F-35 that has been (and will be) built, will be done by UK companies. The tax on profits WILL go to the Treasury. That's a fact.

British Manufacturers Recognised for Vital Role in F-35's Global Production

Last edited by MSOCS; 2nd Aug 2016 at 08:41.
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 16:20
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Progress

F-35A takes down target drone (Flight Global 2nd Aug)
With an initial operational capability declaration imminent, the Lockheed Martin F-35A marked its first air-to-air kill during a flight test after launching infrared- and radar-guided missiles at subscale target drones, the US Air Force announced 1 August.
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 17:07
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
F-35A takes down target drone (Flight Global 2nd Aug)
The aircraft also carried an internal Raytheon AIM-120C AMRAAM missile, which the pilot employed on a separate target drone before launching the AIM-9X. The drone was beyond visual range and the AIM-120C was directed as planned to self-destruct before impact.

Was the bvr drone mother earth by any chance?
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 18:19
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Was the bvr drone mother earth by any chance?
Not sure the F-35 has the range for that!
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Old 2nd Aug 2016, 21:27
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Yup, still some ways to go but USAF went IOC today:

Air Force Declares F-35A Ready For Combat

Cue outrage from the usual lurkers........
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 01:54
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Outrage no, amusement yes.
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 06:10
  #9531 (permalink)  
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That wasn't as amusing as this was hysterical. I mean, PR is PR, but claims have to be more realistic.

If their SAW is that bad, maybe they could buy some latest anti-stealth systems from the Russians or Chinese?

http://www.defensenews.com/story/mil...says/87760454/
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 06:30
  #9532 (permalink)  
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1. Assume for a moment the US DOD will purchase the full allotment of F-35s, all models
Air Force Declares F-35A IOC; Major Milestone For Biggest US Program « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary

".....Will the Air Force buy its full complement? Harrison was skeptical.

“I don’t think it’s plausible that we’ll actually buy that full amount in the long run, but they don’t need to change their plans right now, they don’t need to scare the foreign partners by signaling that right now, it wouldn’t make sense to do it now,” he says. “You don’t have to make that decision on the total quantity, you don’t even have to make the decision on the full-rate production, until four or five years from now. So you can wait four or five years, more of the foreign partners will get deeply invested in the program, and then they can scare them.”.........
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 08:29
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Originally Posted by ORAC

".....Will the Air Force buy its full complement? Harrison was skeptical.

“I don’t think it’s plausible that we’ll actually buy that full amount in the long run, but they don’t need to change their plans right now, they don’t need to scare the foreign partners by signaling that right now, it wouldn’t make sense to do it now,” he says.
He knows no better than anybody else how many will be bought. It is perfectly possible that 5 times the number get bought. Equally, there is a worldwide economic crash and hardly any get bought.

Who knows if there is another big conflict that requires a lot of aircraft?
Who knows what Russia might do?
China?

Silly silly guessing game.
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 08:37
  #9534 (permalink)  
 
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"those 500 British companies earn revenue from Y (total Program build) aircraft and pay tax to the Exchequer on those earnings."

More likely "those british companies do their damndest to pay zero tax to the Exchequer" - tho I suppose we might get some back through VAT on Bentley's, Directors yachts and other fripperies.......................
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 08:39
  #9535 (permalink)  
 
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"It is perfectly possible that 5 times the number get bought."

possible Toursit but shall we say about a 0.0001% chance? I don't think ANY postwar program has led to a 5 times original planned purchase.................................
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 08:46
  #9536 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
I don't think ANY postwar program has led to a 5 times original planned purchase.................................
I think that is kind of the point....

The relevant word in your post is "postwar"

Militaries are for war.

Yes, we have been living through one of the most peaceful times in history. History suggests that it won't last.

Do you see anything in the world today that leads you to believe that there won't be a proper war in the next 20yrs?

I suspect that some of the Vietnam purchases got a lot bigger than expected.....
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 08:59
  #9537 (permalink)  
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Restating for the umpteenth time the statement from both Houses of the Senate defence committees, no extra money for aircraft purchases, whatever number the agreed budget buys, that's all they pay for; so as the price goes up, the numbers come down, and the dreaded spiral emerges. And the price at present is far in excess of that used to produce the budget.

So, indeed, unless there is a major war, the number will be well below that originally envisaged, as with the F-22 and B-1/B-2.
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 09:14
  #9538 (permalink)  
 
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So the money stays the same, regardless of the purchase number.

So the UK companies take home the same amount of money either way?


I have no skin in the game, but people like the chap in ORACs quote making future predictions about events that have so many variables are just foolish.


p.s. Statements from all politicians are always up for modification.
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 09:50
  #9539 (permalink)  
 
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The Nimrod was a great program that spent big and delivered nothing...
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Old 3rd Aug 2016, 14:24
  #9540 (permalink)  
 
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The USAF pronounces IOC for F-35A Block 3I, and Gen. "Hawk" Carlisle says that he would deploy the jet to Europe or the WP tomorrow if necessary. Unfortunately, the F-35A 3I is functionally identical to the F-35B Block 2B, meaning that it only supports the carriage of two AIM-120s and either two 2,000lb JDAMs or two 500lbs. LGBs, all internally. So basically it is an upgraded F-117A - not a fighter aircraft (at this point in its development.) Note that the AIM-9X target kill is irrelevant until 3F aircraft can be fielded in a few years. There is a reason why people are talking about using this aircraft as an "armed scout" / ISR asset - it cannot perform current mission sets without the support of current tactical jets for wvr air combat and as magazines/bomb trucks for ground attack and bvr engagements.
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