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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Old 24th Jun 2014, 05:46
  #4661 (permalink)  
 
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Dat - no there haven't been. Just saving you a Google ;-)
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Old 24th Jun 2014, 05:48
  #4662 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rh200 View Post
Has anyone done any sort of statistics on historical fighter R&D and roll outs, accidents, cost overruns, time over runs. Would be a good comparison. As long as its done on a relative term.
To be fair I don't think it would be possible 'relatively'. The multi-role, multi-service demands on this contract would make it impossible to compare it with any other programs. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't fare well regardless though...
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Old 24th Jun 2014, 19:22
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Update on Post #4661 above ...

Originally Posted by DefenseNews
WASHINGTON — The fire that broke out on an F-35A model Monday will not ground the fleet or alter plans to bring the Joint Strike Fighter to the UK, service officials said today.
More here ...

DefenseNews F-35 Fire Update
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Old 24th Jun 2014, 21:22
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To be fair there are a large number of US studies on how things go wrong on major programs (but very few UK ones )

The bigger the program the more likely it will get out of control - the F-35 is just one of the worst in long series of awful events
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Old 24th Jun 2014, 21:35
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HH, theres considerable truth in that post of yours.

The F-18A is a benchmark in taking the "all things to all people" idea to a curious conclusion, what with the "high/low" mix originally envisioned between it and the Tomcat. When the F-18E/F became the final follow on, no small criticism was levied in it keeping the same basic Type/Model/Series designation given the magnitude of the upgrade.

Osprey is of course legendary in that regard (much covered on the Rotorhead forums), as is that "littoral combat ship" thing.

F-111 may have set the trend in the gross flaws in the "joint, one size fits all" acquisition theory, though over time it turned into a very useful platform.

I won't go into the Seawolf and other programs by our submerged friends, nor DIVAD etc that our Army brothers went for.
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Old 25th Jun 2014, 00:33
  #4666 (permalink)  
 
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To be fair there are a large number of US studies on how things go wrong on major programs (but very few UK ones )
Yea I mentioned that sort of thing in regards to major industrial projects and there over runs. Functionally from a project management theory side of things It would have some sort of root cause.

The F-18A is a benchmark in taking the "all things to all people" idea to a curious conclusion, what with the "high/low" mix originally envisioned between it and the Tomcat. When the F-18E/F became the final follow on, no small criticism was levied in it keeping the same basic Type/Model/Series designation given the magnitude of the upgrade.

Osprey is of course legendary in that regard (much covered on the Rotorhead forums), as is that "littoral combat ship" thing.

I think this all touches on a well known problem, that we keep forgetting, or just choose to ignore. You could probably map your project with some risk variables. Things such as technology change gradient, or some other related various issues. These could all then result in the probability of a balls up.

In short trying to do huge jumps in capability, or technology in a single step is a bad thing. Trying to do to many things with one item dito. We know this from various previous examples, the space shuttle is a classic.
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Old 25th Jun 2014, 03:36
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A-12 Avenger II Program
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Old 25th Jun 2014, 11:46
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Bill Gunston has a chapter in his Jet Bombers book on the A-12

he points out that if they'd agreed to accept only 80% of the lunatic capabilities they wrote in the spec they'd have had quite a useful aeroplane

and it's not just recent aircraft - the Avro Manchester, the Swift, the original F-102/106.................. and lets not forget the Valkyrie
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Old 25th Jun 2014, 16:44
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I wonder if it was an electrical fire?
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Old 25th Jun 2014, 17:00
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I think only the F-15 and F-22 lost no FSD aircraft
I think the F/A-18 E/F went through devopment and fleet use before a loss. I'll leave it to others to debate whether the E/F is a "new" design. I say it essentially is.
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Old 25th Jun 2014, 22:57
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MORE or less on the F-35A fire here:

Marine, Air Force JSF Flights Stalled; AETC Puts F-35A Under Lock, Key Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary
___________________

F-35B Stand-down Not Yet Affecting Air Show Timeline 25 Jun 2014 Amy Butler | AWIN First
"All U.S. Marine Corps F-35B operations remain dormant since a fire broke out in an F-35A preparing for takeoff this week, but this is not expected – at least for now – to affect the timing of the aircraft’s debut in the U.K. next month....

...Plans to transit four F-35Bs over the Atlantic Ocean for their international debut at the Royal International Air Tattoo and Farnborough International Air Show next month have not been changed, he [Capt. Rich Ulsh, a service spokesman] said. The first flight window for the single-engine, stealthy F-35s to cross is June 29. The four F-35Bs are expected to depart from NAS Patuxent River, Maryland, and fly directly with the help of two KC-10s to RAF Fairford, England.

What could be affected are internal timelines for the four aircraft to meet at Patuxent River in advance of the departure...."
http://aviationweek.com/defense/f-35...-show-timeline

Last edited by SpazSinbad; 25th Jun 2014 at 23:24. Reason: xtra content
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Old 26th Jun 2014, 09:56
  #4672 (permalink)  
 
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"
Quote:
Originally Posted by rh200
Has anyone done any sort of statistics on historical fighter R&D and roll outs, accidents, cost overruns, time over runs. Would be a good comparison. As long as its done on a relative term.

To be fair I don't think it would be possible 'relatively'. The multi-role, multi-service demands on this contract would make it impossible to compare it with any other programs. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't fare well regardless though..."

Try "The Cutting Edge" by Lorell & Levaux published by RAND in 1998

has data on 223 programs and 300+ aircraft versions
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Old 26th Jun 2014, 23:33
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Handles well

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Old 27th Jun 2014, 20:48
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Not fair to criticise the Avro Manchester, Harry. It was a capable machine that would have fared much better had Rolls Royce been able to divert more effort on the Vulture engines. They were unable to as the RAF instructed the firm to concentrate most of its effort on the Merlin and the rest to the Griffon. The Vulture ended production prematurely ( although the quick increase in span and 4 of the Merlins created the sublime Lancaster). The Westland Whirlwind suffered by having no support for the Peregrine engines and consequently only 2 squadrons of them were formed. War is hell!
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Old 28th Jun 2014, 08:18
  #4675 (permalink)  
 
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unfortunately when rating the effectiveness of an aircraft you have to look at the whole package - the Manchester was a dog because of its engines - nothing wrong with the airframe - but still a dangerous dog to fly
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Old 28th Jun 2014, 09:52
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There seem to be conflicting reports as to wether or not the F-35 is currently grounded due to the recent fire in an F-35A, can anyone clarify if all versions are grounded, or just the F-35A? Or are flights now continuing again?

-RP
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Old 28th Jun 2014, 12:23
  #4677 (permalink)  
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Rhino, As and Cs grounded, confusion over the Bs. See AW&ST

F-35Bs Flying But A, C Ops On Hold

Three U.S. Marine Corps F-35Bs have taken off from Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona, en route to NAS Patuxent River, Maryland, ahead of their planned Atlantic Ocean crossing to the United Kingdom. Four F-35Bs are expected to be in country by the week of July 7 for flying displays at the Royal International Air Tattoo and Farnborough air show next month.

"The Marine Corps will resume F-35B flight operations today. We are continuing with our plans to deploy to the U.K. next month," said Capt. Rich Ulsh, a Marine Corps spokesman.

This signals at least a partial resumption of flight for the F-35 fleet; 95 F-35s have been down for a "safety pause" after the aft end of an F-35A, AF-27, erupted into fire on the runway at Eglin AFB, Florida, prior to takeoff June 23. The pilot safely egressed, and investigators are trying to find the root cause. F-35As operated by the Air Force and Cs operated by the Navy have not yet been cleared to fly, according to spokeswomen at the respective services.

Ulsh declined to say whether the resumption of flight operations signaled that the B was exonerated from concerns related to the fire. But the earlier stand down was conducted in the interest of flight safety. It is unclear whether the flight operations approved for the F-35B are exclusive only to the aircraft transiting to Patuxent River.

The first flight window for the Atlantic crossing is slated to be June 29. However, technically, the F-35Bs do not have to be in the United Kingdom until the week of July 7 when pilots must conduct their verification flights ahead of the show displays.
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Old 28th Jun 2014, 14:36
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Has been rumours that the MOD wanted one in country by the 4th, to do a flypast at the naming of Queen Elizabeth.

I noticed a plastic one is on deck when i drove past yesterday.
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Old 28th Jun 2014, 14:43
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Thanks for the link, ORAC.

-RP
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Old 29th Jun 2014, 15:11
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So, let's sum the situation up here.

The plan is to do a transatlantic drag with four single-engine jets, each with a fuel fraction equivalent to an F-16 or Typhoon with no external tanks, and higher wing and span loadings (indicative of cruise efficiency) than either. Hence the northern route and around 10 tankings per aircraft.

The aircraft has very seldom landed anywhere except Fort Worth, the flight-test and training centers and its main operating bases.

There have been two engine-related flight standdowns in the past month.

Given that there will be hordes of senior international air force officers at RIAT and that the U.K. may plan to announce its first large order at Farnborough, there's no pressure on anyone at all.
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