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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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Old 1st Aug 2013, 07:33
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Snafu 351 is correct of course

The only good thing is to think of all the money the Chinese & Russians have wasted rushing countermeasures into production based on published delivery targets and the F-35 not turning up

It must have cost them zillions and they keep having to update them

Who said aerospace didn't create jobs???
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Old 1st Aug 2013, 08:48
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The only good thing is to think of all the money the Chinese & Russians have wasted rushing countermeasures into production based on published delivery targets and the F-35 not turning up
That made me smile. The thought of VLF radar manufacturers in China going bust due to the non-arrival of the F-35. Millions knocked-off the share value of EO systems manufacturers in Russia. DMS issues for hardware already fielded in the Pacific Rim. Bistatic radars going rusty on the fringe of Europe.

Perhaps this was the plan all along? Worked for the Star Wars programme back in the day.
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Old 1st Aug 2013, 16:40
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JTO,

That's a fair scenario to consider however the big difference between China and the 'West' is that one has cash and the other doesn't. So, they may have wasted a large quantity of funds on developing CMs for aircraft that have yet to materialise but there's plenty more where that came from.

I know they have money. Many neighbours in my English village are Chinese second home owners!


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Old 1st Aug 2013, 17:44
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PhilipG,
I agree with your post and the shift to the right with concurrency/software concerns.
personally I don't mind if these numbers are altered, my concern is with the software
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Old 1st Aug 2013, 18:01
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however the big difference between China and the 'West' is...
You seem to have found a rather massive hole in my theory!
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Old 1st Aug 2013, 20:22
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Hagel Sees Modernization Lull Versus Smaller U.S. Forces - Bloomberg

Looks like the pentagon is finally seeing the writing on the wall. Like I pointed out a while back, ultimately, I see the F35 taking a significant hit.

P.s. 8 carriers instead of 11?? WTF, that's mental!
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Old 1st Aug 2013, 21:35
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CVF RAMPS UP!

RAMP INSTALLATION CVF
"Last week the first of five ramp sections was lifted onto HMS Queen Elizabeth; this was three months ahead of schedule."
http://www.aircraftcarrieralliance.c...mms/190713.pdf (0.4Mb)


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Old 1st Aug 2013, 22:34
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Lockheed F-35 Faces ‘Significant Challenges,’ Senators Say

Lockheed F-35 Faces ‘Significant Challenges,’ Senators Say (1) 01 Aug 2013 Tony Capaccio
"The Senate committee that approves defense spending said in a report today that “significant challenges remain” for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT:US)’s F-35 fighter even as progress is made.

The program “continues to experience considerable challenges with software development, system reliability and maintenance system development,” the Senate defense appropriations panel said in its report on the Pentagon’s $516 billion budget request for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1.

The full Senate Appropriations Committee adopted the bill and the panel’s report.

The panel cut $80 million and six aircraft [to 36] from the Pentagon’s initial $562 million request to start buying hardware for 42 aircraft that would be purchased in fiscal 2015. The Pentagon is planning an increase from the 29 planes that were requested, and approved by the committee, for fiscal 2014.

Given the “significant challenges,” a “large increase in the production of aircraft” to 42 from 29 “is not yet warranted” the defense panel said in its report....

...Now “there are still many, many unanswered questions as to whether this Joint Strike Fighter will become a reality that can protect us,” Durbin said.

Separately, the committee directed the Pentagon to review whether the Air Force’s goal of buying 1,763 F-35s remains feasible.

“Given these times of fiscal austerity,” the Pentagon “should review the Air Force tactical fighter force mix,” according to the report.

The committee also deleted for now a Pentagon request for $10 million to evaluate how to integrate the B61 nuclear bomb on later F-35 versions because the requirement hasn’t been thoroughly vetted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s requirements group, it said."
Lockheed F-35 Faces ?Significant Challenges,? Senators Say (1) - Businessweek
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 04:23
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Pentagon downplays prospects of cancelling F-35, bomber

Pentagon downplays prospects of cancelling F-35, bomber 02 Aug 2013 Andrea Shalal-Esa (Additional reporting by David Alexander; Editing by Ken Wills)
"(Reuters) - The U.S. military on Thursday downplayed concerns it could cancel the F-35 fighter and a new stealth bomber, after leaked documents from a budget review suggested the programs might be eliminated as one way to deal with deep budget cuts.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Wednesday that finding $500 billion (330 billion pounds) in budget cuts required by law over the next decade, on top of $487 billion in cuts already being implemented, required tough trade-offs between the size of the military and high-end weapons programs.

Pentagon briefing slides shown to various groups mapped out those tradeoffs in stark terms, indicating that a decision to maintain a larger military could result in the cancellation of the $392 billion Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 program and a new stealthy, long-range bomber, according to several people who saw the slides.

Defense officials later stressed there were no plans to kill either program, noting that dismantling the F-35 program in particular would have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. military services and 10 foreign countries involved in the program, which is already in production.

"We have gone to great lengths to stress that this review identified, through a rigorous process of strategic modelling, possible decisions we might face, under scenarios we may or may not face in the future," Pentagon Spokesman George Little told Reuters in an email when asked about the slides.

"Any suggestion that we're now moving away from key modernization programs as a result of yesterday's discussion of the outcomes of the review would be incorrect," he said.

Analysts said Hagel and other Pentagon officials appeared to be leaning toward the option that would emphasize high-end weapons programs over force size....

...Jim Thomas, vice president at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the two options of a smaller military or sharp cutback in weapons programs represented a false dichotomy.

"This is almost one reasonably attractive option and a straw man that looks pretty unattractive," he said. "I don't think we're going to end up at either of these corners on the map. I think that you're going to get a hybrid solution.""
Pentagon downplays prospects of cancelling F-35, bomber | Reuters
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 11:13
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The last line sums it up pretty well, IMHO. The question is how the resultant increase in price (death spiral) will effect other buyers, who are pretty much on the limits of useful force numbers as well as affordability.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 11:55
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Bastardeux is right. The source of the cancellation talk is in the slides linked here:

Analysis of the DoD SCMR Options | CSBA

Basically, if you don't touch force structure, readiness or the civilian workforce (slide 4 far right) and try to meet the sequester budget, all new programs cease until such time as more money is available, which it won't be because compensation for active and retired will continue to eat more of the budget.

On the other hand, without big cuts to structure, readiness &c and to other new programs, you can't produce JSF at the planned level. Indeed, you needed future budget increases to do that, even before sequester.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 12:00
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F-35B performed its 400th vertical landing 14 May 2013

F-35 Lightning II Program Status and Fast Facts July 10, 2013
"Last month, the F-35B performed its 400th vertical landing and first vertical take-off. (May 10 –VTO and May 14 400th)"
https://www.f35.com/assets/uploads/d...tsjuly2013.pdf (0.2Mb)

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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 14:43
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LO, I know this is a thread about the F35, but if I was a B1 pilot, I would be pretty nervous for my career right now! We joked with our last exchange officer a couple of years ago that "well they're closing squadrons now, but next they'll close a whole fleet"...it's looking quite correct now!
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 15:06
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Well the Brits closed a whole fleet to afford F-35 too....
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 15:08
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Very true, B, and it calls this very ancient joke to mind...

http://secmefikralar.********.com/20...y-rooster.html


Last edited by LowObservable; 2nd Aug 2013 at 15:09.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 16:22
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Having seen them at Red Flag earlier on in the year I would be very nervous if I flew the B1 and didn't get cancelled. The heavies managed a 100% success rate of losing someone on every VUL.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 16:33
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They still have a habit of making it to every real war. When the ranges get long they can find themselves the only participant at the VUL.

Got to be in it to win it.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 18:00
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I recall they were starting to be parked at the grave yard and wasn't only the sand pit that gave them a second lease?
In contested air they aren't looking good for the future

Last edited by JSFfan; 2nd Aug 2013 at 18:04.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 18:09
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Just This Once,

Hadn't thought about that mate, good point.
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 18:22
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they aren't going without a fighter escort, so does it matter what range they have
?
it's like our F111, they couldn't go by themselves and only go as far as our fighters in the end
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