Staying, Leaving, Re-Joining?
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Scotland
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I heard that the poster is implying that if you go for a PVR then he may not be able to let you rescind it. Looks like a lot of people are staying in. Just a heads-up guys, I'm hanging in there as I want the pension the government don't want me to have. Then, when our mutually agreed contract of 16 years is over - I will leave and start another career away from aviation.
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: preston
Age: 76
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If you all look back, six months ago, before the banks dropped us all in it, you would see that a completely unrelated crisis was also developing. That was the peak oil / global warming problem.
If you remember, the price of oil was going through the roof. This was because China and to a lesser extent India were competing for a slice of an oil cake that had already reached its maximum size. Once the banking crisis is resolved, this problem will reoccur pretty sharpish. And China, as the bank of last resort will own all the dollars, euros and pounds.
Unrestricted growth in aviation is a thing of the past. Business and holiday flying will revert to the the levels of the seventies.
Am I certain of this? No. Is it possible or likely??
If you remember, the price of oil was going through the roof. This was because China and to a lesser extent India were competing for a slice of an oil cake that had already reached its maximum size. Once the banking crisis is resolved, this problem will reoccur pretty sharpish. And China, as the bank of last resort will own all the dollars, euros and pounds.
Unrestricted growth in aviation is a thing of the past. Business and holiday flying will revert to the the levels of the seventies.
Am I certain of this? No. Is it possible or likely??
Op Twenty
The poster is playing a vary canny game! In recent years anyone who wished to rescind their PVR (or rejoin) pretty much got the posting of their choice (within reason!) and even command. Now, with the ball in the posters court, he can dictate the terms i.e. wait until the individual is pleading to be allowed to stay in then offer him 'that job' he couldn't get anyone else to take (or a swift 6-monther in a dusty hot place). Poster happy, individual still has a job so he is happy (ish). Very much in the same way that some companies are saying take a pay cut and you'll all have a job or get a payrise and I'll make x% of you redundant (unless you work in banking, of course, where you get rewarded for failure regardless!). And as I alluded to before, when (if) things improve in the civil aviation market, he (or at least the big cheese in Manning) can change the rules of PVR waiting times almost at will to ensure an orderly exit.
The poster is playing a vary canny game! In recent years anyone who wished to rescind their PVR (or rejoin) pretty much got the posting of their choice (within reason!) and even command. Now, with the ball in the posters court, he can dictate the terms i.e. wait until the individual is pleading to be allowed to stay in then offer him 'that job' he couldn't get anyone else to take (or a swift 6-monther in a dusty hot place). Poster happy, individual still has a job so he is happy (ish). Very much in the same way that some companies are saying take a pay cut and you'll all have a job or get a payrise and I'll make x% of you redundant (unless you work in banking, of course, where you get rewarded for failure regardless!). And as I alluded to before, when (if) things improve in the civil aviation market, he (or at least the big cheese in Manning) can change the rules of PVR waiting times almost at will to ensure an orderly exit.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: No Mans Land
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H-D
I am leaving after 20+ yrs, wise move, not sure! However willing to dive in with the sharks in the real world. Plus most of the job offers I have had are immediate start. So being tied to 1 yr notice/ 3 mths PVR etc etc is a bit of a showstopper.
Good luck!
I am leaving after 20+ yrs, wise move, not sure! However willing to dive in with the sharks in the real world. Plus most of the job offers I have had are immediate start. So being tied to 1 yr notice/ 3 mths PVR etc etc is a bit of a showstopper.
Good luck!
Jobs in the aviation world have all but dried up. There are a few jobs, mainly contract which require type ratings and experience, but these are getting fewer. There is no doubt that this recession is deep and it's going to take a while to get out of it.
I left in 2001, just before 9/11. I had the dubious honour of being told I was redundant before I had even left the RAF! My new employer (Virgin) had a knee jerk reaction and sacked about 35% of the pilots. But they had gone too far, as the effect of 9/11 was not as bad as anyone feared. In fact, they realised and tried to get some to return, but were suprised to find a lot didn't want to come back. It turns out my job was safe and I took voluntary redundancy, because I had been offered a more promising job.
This situation is very different. 9/11 was about a lack of confidence. This is now a lack of confidence and a severe lack of cash. Actually, 9/11 wasn't so bad partly because of the increased movement of money thanks to a de-regulation of banking suystems put in place to make post 9/11 more palatable. That's what we're paying for now!
Business isn't flying because business is in recession. People aren't flying because they can't afford to. Will it ever recover to previously seen levels? I doubt it. For the last seven years we have been spending money that didn't exist. And when the books are finally balanced, there won't be the money available thet there was. Taxes will be higher to pay for the bank bailouts, the oil price will shoot up when a demand is percieved (people will want to get into commodities as speculation on equities will take longer to recover) and the holidaying public will be in negative equity on thier houses.
A gloomy picture, but leaving now and competing with other pilots who have more hours, typr ratings and experience on type would be a very brave move. And if you are lucky to get a job, you wouldn't feel too secure being on the bottom of any company's seniority list.
I left in 2001, just before 9/11. I had the dubious honour of being told I was redundant before I had even left the RAF! My new employer (Virgin) had a knee jerk reaction and sacked about 35% of the pilots. But they had gone too far, as the effect of 9/11 was not as bad as anyone feared. In fact, they realised and tried to get some to return, but were suprised to find a lot didn't want to come back. It turns out my job was safe and I took voluntary redundancy, because I had been offered a more promising job.
This situation is very different. 9/11 was about a lack of confidence. This is now a lack of confidence and a severe lack of cash. Actually, 9/11 wasn't so bad partly because of the increased movement of money thanks to a de-regulation of banking suystems put in place to make post 9/11 more palatable. That's what we're paying for now!
Business isn't flying because business is in recession. People aren't flying because they can't afford to. Will it ever recover to previously seen levels? I doubt it. For the last seven years we have been spending money that didn't exist. And when the books are finally balanced, there won't be the money available thet there was. Taxes will be higher to pay for the bank bailouts, the oil price will shoot up when a demand is percieved (people will want to get into commodities as speculation on equities will take longer to recover) and the holidaying public will be in negative equity on thier houses.
A gloomy picture, but leaving now and competing with other pilots who have more hours, typr ratings and experience on type would be a very brave move. And if you are lucky to get a job, you wouldn't feel too secure being on the bottom of any company's seniority list.
