How Many to Manage 41,000

[Wensleydale]

But who would sign off on overseas t & s if we got rid of too many senior officers?

[Jabba_TG12]

I wonder what you'd make of this comment then Kitbag, taken from the Telegraph...

"A senior officer said: "All we have had from the new defence secretary are hints and sideswipes at the military. We have troops fighting and dying on operations and unless some direction and leadership, rather than the constant regurgitation of how bad things are within the military, some troops will legitimately ask 'what's the point' when their future is in doubt." "


The direction and leadership was meant to come from the senior officers, is it not?

Royal Navy and RAF will bear brunt of multi-billion pound defence cuts - Telegraph

[The B Word]

OK, to put some more fact into the debate I have just looked at the 2010 RAF List and there are 1,273 Wg Cdrs

However, just 388 are aircrew, with 191 pilots and 197 WSO (Navs, AEOs and LMs). So there are 885 "other branch" Wg Cdrs.

I then considered that there were the following (thanks for corrections):

46x Wg Cdr Squadrons:
1 Sqn
II (AC) Sqn
3 Sqn
4 Sqn
5 (AC) Sqn
8 Sqn
9 Sqn
11 Sqn
12 Sqn
13 Sqn
14 Sqn
15(R) Sqn
18 Sqn
22 Sqn
24 Sqn
27 Sqn
28 Sqn
29(R) Sqn
30 Sqn
31 Sqn
32 (The Royal) Sqn
33 Sqn
39 Sqn
41(R) Sqn
42(R) Sqn
45(R) Sqn
47 Sqn
51 Sqn
54(R) Sqn
55(R) Sqn
56(R) Sqn
72(R) Sqn
78 Sqn
92(R) Sqn
99 Sqn
100 Sqn
101 Sqn
111 Sqn
120 Sqn
201 Sqn
202 Sqn
208(R) Sqn
216 Sqn
230 Sqn
617 Sqn
RAFAT

20x Aircrew Wg Cdr OC Ops or Stn Cdrs:
RAF Wittering
RAF St. Mawgan
RAF Spadeadam
RAF Odiham
RAF Cranwell
RAF Coningsby
RAF Waddington
RAF Northolt
RAF Marham
RAF Benson
RAF Brize Norton
RAF Cottesmore
RAF Shawbury
RAF Lyneham
RAF Leeming
RAF Linton-on-Ouse
RAF Kinloss
RAF Leuchars
RAF Lossiemouth
RAF Valley

I then considered CFIs and there are at least another 4, making a total of 70x aircrew Wg Cdr posts. Add the PJOBs of Akrotiri, Gibraltar and MPA plus the EAWs that makes another 10 then that makes 80. Considering there is a Wg Cdr in a ground tour waiting for a Command Tour and an equal number in ground tours after a Command Tour, then that totals 240 required.

That makes an excess of 138 Wg Cdrs left - but there are Aircrew required Wg Cdr posts in HQs such as JHC, Air Command (1,2 and 22Gp), PJHQ, MOD, ETPS and CFS. Plus NATO, Air Attache, exchange posts and OOA postings.

So is 388 too many? - probably not. Unless you fancy a non-aircrew type stumbling about in an aircrew specialised post, which is exactly why the Wg Cdr branch no longer has "GD Any" monicker attached to it.

One thing I do know, is that there are an awful lot of Controllers,Coppers and Rock Ape Wg Cdrs (ie. OSB) in posts outside of specialisation

The B Word

[Wyler]

And a fair number of aircrew stumbling about in areas they know f*ck all about. So I guess that balances it out old chap.

[Phoney Tony]

The B Word,

206(R) Sqn is alive and well at RAF Boscomb Down.

There are also wg cdrs in the various staff trg establishments , loads in MoD, too many engineers in DE&S and some in Dstl.

[Mr C Hinecap]

Unless you fancy a non-aircrew type stumbling about in an aircrew specialised post, which is exactly why the Wg Cdr branch no longer has "GD Any" monicker attached to it.

s'funny. Another view is that it was all a bit difficult finding out the non-aircrew types were actually very capable and doing better in some previously aircrew posts and it was upsetting the order of things. So we revert to job protection to ensure survival of the species.

[RumPunch]

2010 RAF List and there are 1,273 Wg Cdrs

Bloody hell , here lies the problem why we are in such a terrible shape

[500days2do]

Turkeys and Xmas

Can you see the cull ever happening though ?

The problem has always been to many managers...even at Sqn level...

Why the need for promotion lists every year....as ground crew we had guys with up to 10 years seniority before getting promotion...the officer cadre is just a gravy train...hence the top end is stuffed with oxygen thieves who have no idea how things should be done....

5d2d

[cornish-stormrider]

so those of you who are fekked off with it can reach for the black and yellow JPA handle marked PVR, await the sdr and get shafted or put up and shut up.

Where I am working now has had it's turnover multiply by a factor of 5 (nearly 6) in four years.

Jobs are out there and I for one wouldn't stay in with the situation like it is - I guess the last line in the Arrsepedia will come true - have a look...

[Lima Juliet]

500days to do

Why the need for promotion lists every year....as ground crew we had guys with up to 10 years seniority before getting promotion...the officer cadre is just a gravy train...hence the top end is stuffed with oxygen thieves who have no idea how things should be done....

The average seniority of Flt Lts promoted to Sqn Ldr is about 7 years and to Wg Cdr is 7 years as well - I've never seen a Sqn Ldr promoted to Wg Cdr without less than 4.5 years seniority, as they need a minimum of 2 reports in their staff tour and then a minimum of 2 reports in their command tour (usually as a front line Flight Commander in charge of 15 or so Fg Offs and Flt Lts). Promotion is rarely immediate, hence the 4.5 year figure, and these are the individuals that usually make into Air Rank.

I hope that informs your opinion a little better on the officer cadre "gravy train", and yes, they have to be boarded just like SAC to Cpl, Cpl to Sgt, Sgt to CT, CT to FS and FS to WO. The yearly promotion lists for ORs are the same as Officers - so I guess that's the need for a yearly promotion lists. Also, in the past 2 years, the aircrew Flt Lt to Sqn Ldr list has been about 70 officers (prior to that it has been about 120) and the Sqn Ldr to Wg Cdr was 45 in 2009 and expecting 28 in 2010 (usually about 60-65 in previous years). The majority of the promotees were "A-" or above with "High" reccomendations for promotion - this is awarded on merit and performance (not a gravy train), just like that for ORs.

Mr C Hinecap

Another view is that it was all a bit difficult finding out the non-aircrew types were actually very capable and doing better in some previously aircrew posts and it was upsetting the order of things.

I guess the buzz-word here is "some previously aircrew posts" - the majority of aircrew annotated posts are done well by aircrew, so why, oh why, would we want to take a gamble and put non-aircrew into them? Just like you wouldn't want an aircrew mate running BSW or FSW; I'm pretty sure some aircrew officers could be "actually very capable and do better" in some of these posts, as well. In my opinion it is "horses for courses" and therefore "aircrew for flying related jobs" and "penguins for penguin related jobs" - simples!

LJ

[Seldomfitforpurpose]

LJ,

Reading your post confirms what many of us have known for quite a while now, were doomed

[The B Word]

Thanks Phoney Tony

That makes the numbers even more justified.

Out of interest, the Navy should have 1140 Cdrs, the Army 1770 Lt Cols and the RAF 1200 Wg Cdrs. Seeing as the Navy and RAF are roughly the same magnitude of size then we are probably "about" right. The Army are quite rightly less top heavy as they send the majority of their ORs out to fight, so their Rank structure is different, whereas the RAF send the majority of their SNCO/Officers out to fight (discounting the Regt Gunners).

25% saving = 900 Wg Cdrs

Again, probably about right if we go down to the rumoured 30,000ish mark. That could be achieved by keeping the lower promotion quotas, no continuance past 55 and natural wastage via PVR within in about 3 years. According to DASA stats the officer outflow is about 3%, so that's 36 Wg Cdrs per year. If we also go for "harsher rules" for promotion and continued service at 55, then this could easily be close to a 100-per-year correction.

Then the Govt/HM Treasury are off the hook and wouldn't have to find a collosal amount of redundancy money.

The B Word

[Pontius Navigator]

Originally Posted by Leon Jabachjabicz

Just like you wouldn't want an aircrew mate running BSW or FSW; I'm pretty sure some aircrew officers could be "actually very capable and do better" in some of these posts, as well.

Actually in days of yore OC Admin was frequently an aircrew wg cdr. It was a good pre-cursor to his own station. Equally the Station Adjutant was a post for a senior, usually Cranwell, flt lt and a pre-cursor to a sqn ldr command tour. By keeping aircrew in cockpits they actually limit early command experience.

[The B Word]

PN

Couldn't agree more...

The B Word

[Wrathmonk]

The biggest failing of the officer promotion system is that individuals get promoted regardless of whether a job is available for them. Hence you (used to?) get the daft situation of individuals being promoted to wg cdr half way through staff college. Why not run the board, release the list and then promote when a job requiring an individual becomes available (which is, I believe, how the Navy and Army lists work). That way seniority actually means something - the date you put the rank up reflects the date you actually start the job and also gets rid of the 'overanked' posts where people have too much rank for the post they are filling. It also stops individuals being forced into a job that they clearly don't have the 'skill sets' for just because it needs a person of their rank. And please tell me the ruling of three years as acting and you automatically got substantive is no longer in force.....

And whilst I'm putting the world to rights why not introduce an 'up or out' policy (as I believe the USAF have). Stop all the 'bed blockers' who are bouncing between departments in Air Command as a 10+ year seniority sqn ldr or wg cdr (with no desire to go any further or to return to the front line) just to keep the educational allowance (and I know this will reopen the flying pay / reserve band / loss of flying pay discussion but we haven't had that argument on PPRuNe for at least a few weeks)

A bit of thread drift I fear - apologies!

[Pontius Navigator]

Wrath, that may be true but it is not what I have seen.

The old rules, pre-Hodgekinson, was the biennial promotion on 1 Jan/1 Jul followed by an immediate posting - no warning and no consideration of wife of.

This changed to the blue letter system where they know they will almost certainly get a posting within months to the new post. No promotion until posted. Wife of can now make spending plans, carpets, curtains etc.

That your wg cdr gets promoted on course may be a quirk of the system.

[Party Animal]

Wrath,

"And whilst I'm putting the world to rights why not introduce an 'up or out' policy (as I believe the USAF have). Stop all the 'bed blockers' who are bouncing between departments in Air Command as a 10+ year seniority sqn ldr or wg cdr (with no desire to go any further or to return to the front line) just to keep the educational allowance"

Bit too simplistic a statement I'm afraid. The US military do have an up or out system that obviously works for them. It means a continuous fresh flow of people through the system and good promotion chances (i.e, 95% make SO2 level and 80% make SO1 level) but on the downside, experience levels overall are very low. I have yet to find an aviator with 4,000 hrs flying experience. Pension costs are relatively high too with a typical outflow of officers at the 20 year point with an SO1 pension. Good for the individual but maybe not so good for the UK MOD Defence Budget.

As for the ‘bed blockers’, during my time in AIR, the obvious ones were relatively few – the same ones who desert dodge incidentally. The reality is that there are lots of jobs that need to be filled at HWY and someone has to do them. Therefore, it’s easy to stay put in one place if that’s your bag. Many of those sqn ldr / wg cdrs would really like to go further but if you haven’t made SO1 by the age of 44, it isn’t going to happen – regardless of how hard you work. An average 37 old with potential will always be promoted ahead of the exceptional 44 year old, which is another issue with our system.

Many of those individuals would also love to go back to the FL but again the system prevents this. Generally, you will get one sqn ldr flt cdr tour and that’s it. If you make it to sqn boss, then great. If not – your flying is over, bar the very few who are accepted for PA spine. The last PA board had just 2 sqn ldrs accepted for PA from the 50+ who applied. The bottom line is that they are needed by the ‘system’ to fill all those crap staff jobs at places like AIR which brings you back to all those 10+ year seniority dudes bouncing between departments!

[AED24]

PA - ty, a good post, logical and well explained. Aside from the comparison between representatives of other services and nations, I would be very interested to know the general criteria that is used to justify the need for the very many Group Captains and above in the RAF.

[Seldomfitforpurpose]

Or even why it's deemed essential for so many of our senior folk to be pilots

[Wrathmonk]

No promotion until posted

Not quite true I'm afraid. Whilst you may get a heads up from the deskie that you're above 'the line' the blue letters often don't come out until 4-6 weeks prior to 1 Jan / 1 Jul. Regardless of whether you have a posting or not the rank goes up on whichever list (ie Jan or Jul) you are on.

I have yet to find an aviator with 4,000 hrs flying experience

I appreciate you are brobably taling about the USAF, and may mean fast jet aviator, but the RAF have plenty of truckies / maritime / RW that have >4000hrs (and not all SNCO's either). The Spec Air / PAS is there to keep the experience for the front line. As for the up or out policy I'm not saying >2 years in rank and you're out but 8 years+. The problem is you can be promoted to sqn ldr at, say, 28 (not uncommon) and be guaranteed a job for the next 27 years without having to make any effort at all. That cannot be right or sensible (and I suspect is being used and abused during this economic 'down turn'). You will have repaid your training costs and can, if you wish, PVR at 6/12 months notice. So why shouldn't MOD have the option to do the same (call it an admin discharge perhaps). How does it work for the non-commissioned side?

The job for life is a thing of the past. Perhaps making the break points (including optional ones) to be a two way process, i.e you can leave or can be asked to leave, is the way forward. The size the RAF will be reducing to does not have enough 'fat' in the system for bed blockers, desert dodgers etc.