Is this a bubble?
 

Can the current order numbers sustainably be operated or will there be a brutal price war ending in tears?

Order books

Emirates
310 777, 350

Fly Dubai
30 787
136 737

Qatar
150 proposal ( 350 or 777)
50 A321
34 777F
50. 777X

Riyadh
72 787
100 737 MAX ( rumor)

Etihad
92 777/321/350

Air Arabia
120. 320

Turkish
310 320/321/350

Air India
470 plus 370 options

IndiGO
500 A320

( India will also add two new massive airports in Mumbai and Delhi, plus expansions at all other major airports)

Total order book for the region incl options and proposals : 2 794 aircraft

Ethiopian 67 ( 32 A350)

No problem







.

Order is just an order. Both plane makers' delivery capacity will be the limiting factor. With these backlogs, a decade is not enough to fulfil these airlines ambition. The war we will see is the capacity, not the revenue....

All these airplanes will take a decade or so to be delivered. Also add in the factor that a very significant portion of those orders (at least for the ME3) are for replacement of older airframes, so it doesn't mean massive fleet expansion.

It’s a bubble alright.

There's a really two ways this could play out.
1. The economies of the GCC and many countries in the developing world are continuing to grow so demand for air travel is only growing, and there will be a piece of the pie for everyone.
2. The Market will be over saturated and some of these airlines will go bust out have to downsize. (See Etihad).
India will have the final say. Are there going to be enough international pax in and out of India to allow for the two Indian carriers and the GCC carriers to be profitable on those routes?

Time will tell.

World War 3 might also put a dent in things.

Once Iran opens up after the next ‘War’ it’s only going to lead to more orders. But it’s also competition for the rest of the Middle East. Iran is a ready-made modern society that will only take minor tweaking to make it the next tourist Mecca.

Mecca tourism
 

Poor analogy. Most tourists are not permitted to visit Mecca. Getting stoned could happen, and not in the pleasant sense :=