Has the Middle East Peaked as a Hub ?
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Many countries did not realize EK/QR were stealing market share before it was too late . As countries recover their first priority will be to protect there national carrier and review and restrict EK/QR basically unrestricted axcess . 787/350 can now skip the hub . EK/QR are going to be big targets as we emerge from this crisis , with no one having sympathy for STC or his counterparts.
Last edited by fatbus; 14th Jun 2020 at 22:49.
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A fleet of A380's cannot compare with a mix fleet of A350 B777 B787, Qatar will dismiss all A380 with immediate effect, A350 and B787 burn almost the same fuel of an A321 and the B777 is one of the most successful machines ever, it carries a huge amount of cargo in the belly making it profitable even when flying with no pax, carrying only cargo.
A fleet of 120 and more A380's is a suicide, they are the less profitable machines ever built, you cannot compare at all, imho qatar is a winner no doubt.
A380 is not even good for cargo, it's only amazing for passenger comfort.. Emirates is in deep s.... It was ok many years ago, those times are long gone, it was a very bad planning, they have a large number of B777 that maybe will save the company otherwise...
A fleet of 120 and more A380's is a suicide, they are the less profitable machines ever built, you cannot compare at all, imho qatar is a winner no doubt.
A380 is not even good for cargo, it's only amazing for passenger comfort.. Emirates is in deep s.... It was ok many years ago, those times are long gone, it was a very bad planning, they have a large number of B777 that maybe will save the company otherwise...
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Jack - I think you are missing the point a bit. The 380's are not flying and wont be for a very long time. EK have enough 777's to be able to service their route network on a schedule that will fit foreseeable demand well into the future. The 380's will only be brought back into service when the demand exists and when that happens then they will be profitable. What you also have to bear in mind is that Qatar were losing millions and needing a bailout even before the Coronavirus shut down international travel - the 'norm' for Qatar is losing around $500 million a year.
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Saudi aren't really in the hub airline market. They provide a domestic network, flights to neighbouring countries, international routes tailored towards their migrant workers and rich locals going shopping or doing business. Now and again they will pop up in a search as a possible option for a connecting flight but it's not their bread and butter. Riyadh and Jeddah aren't the best of airports to transit through, there is no alcohol allowed and until very recently entry requirements were highly restrictive. Kuwait Airways are the same but without the domestic part. These airlines aren't reliant on connecting passengers and will be much less affected as they don't need to worry about filling three A380s a day into Bangkok with pax joining from other cities on the network.
The ME3 all have common problems with the reduction in demand for long haul international travel, particularly in the premium cabins. Transit restrictions and pax preference will be for direct flights and it will be easy for governments to assist their own airlines by placing restrictions on the ME3 for "health reasons". Cabin crew in particular tend to live in shared accommodation in a few common buildings and would flag up as a high risk straight away. Large parts of their networks will remain off limits for some time to come and keeping out of the Indian subcontinent which is a major market for both pax and migrant workers will be costly and difficult.
Emirates aircraft are now too big and they will find it difficult to fill them up and maintain reasonable connection times. They don't have the flexibility of smaller aircraft which allow capacity and frequency to be more finely adjusted to match supply and demand across the network.
EY have managed to lose money even in the best of times and now it will only get worse.
Qatar were losing money due to the blockade, however their mix of aircraft was better and downsizing to A320/B787 is an option which could give them a head start. The lifting of the blockade is a huge factor in this case.
Airlines such as Finnair or EVA Air which offer transits through low risk countries could grab market share in the meantime. Vietnam Airlines could become a major operator on the London to Australia route. Airlines such as these will have a head start as restrictions are lifted.
The Middle East offers many advantages such as location, tax and labour laws. The question isn't about if it's finished as a hub, but if it will retain the same level of importance in the future.
The ME3 all have common problems with the reduction in demand for long haul international travel, particularly in the premium cabins. Transit restrictions and pax preference will be for direct flights and it will be easy for governments to assist their own airlines by placing restrictions on the ME3 for "health reasons". Cabin crew in particular tend to live in shared accommodation in a few common buildings and would flag up as a high risk straight away. Large parts of their networks will remain off limits for some time to come and keeping out of the Indian subcontinent which is a major market for both pax and migrant workers will be costly and difficult.
Emirates aircraft are now too big and they will find it difficult to fill them up and maintain reasonable connection times. They don't have the flexibility of smaller aircraft which allow capacity and frequency to be more finely adjusted to match supply and demand across the network.
EY have managed to lose money even in the best of times and now it will only get worse.
Qatar were losing money due to the blockade, however their mix of aircraft was better and downsizing to A320/B787 is an option which could give them a head start. The lifting of the blockade is a huge factor in this case.
Airlines such as Finnair or EVA Air which offer transits through low risk countries could grab market share in the meantime. Vietnam Airlines could become a major operator on the London to Australia route. Airlines such as these will have a head start as restrictions are lifted.
The Middle East offers many advantages such as location, tax and labour laws. The question isn't about if it's finished as a hub, but if it will retain the same level of importance in the future.
Last edited by krismiler; 14th Jun 2020 at 10:14.
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Originally Posted by Jet II
The 380's are not flying and wont be for a very long time.
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To where?. No point flying it to London if the UK's 14 day quarantine is still in operation, North America is still banning leisure travel as is OZ and NZ.
If all you have is a smattering of PAX and a lot of freight then putting the whale back in the air is lunacy.
If all you have is a smattering of PAX and a lot of freight then putting the whale back in the air is lunacy.
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Jet
You are barking up the most dyed-in-the-wood tree here. It's pure desperation from the poor guys who ignored It for years when others told them that their toy is good for pretty days, but those never lasted long. In catastrophic times it will be the first to be ditched and here we are.
Twins will reign the world in recovery.
Concerning protectionism, i think fatty is right, EK will face it big time. No one will shed a tear for EK, even less for TC, but unfortunately no one will for its pilots either. We were mainly considered scabs, as we tried that mercenary route. By doing so, we all knew that we were at the mercy of the new masters, and we knew how little morality existed among them. So all that lamenting about the ways we're served off seems a little hypocritical, it was already written on the wall when we signed up.
The culling is inevitable, the method is questionable, but not unexpected.
You are barking up the most dyed-in-the-wood tree here. It's pure desperation from the poor guys who ignored It for years when others told them that their toy is good for pretty days, but those never lasted long. In catastrophic times it will be the first to be ditched and here we are.
Twins will reign the world in recovery.
Concerning protectionism, i think fatty is right, EK will face it big time. No one will shed a tear for EK, even less for TC, but unfortunately no one will for its pilots either. We were mainly considered scabs, as we tried that mercenary route. By doing so, we all knew that we were at the mercy of the new masters, and we knew how little morality existed among them. So all that lamenting about the ways we're served off seems a little hypocritical, it was already written on the wall when we signed up.
The culling is inevitable, the method is questionable, but not unexpected.
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Originally Posted by glofish
You are barking up the most dyed-in-the-wood tree here.
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Point to point and travel bubbles will be the first airtravel openings, therefore it will be very difficult to get enough passengers to fill those huge planes in the ME. What is getting now daily worse is the coronavirus situation in the ME prime market: India, Pakistan, Africa and Brazil. It will become even more difficult to fill these large planes and the competition will increase sharply between the 3 rivals. I believe for the moment QR has the best opportunities, a rich country supporting its national carrier and having no burden of the A380 , it has a diverse fleet of fuel efficient aircraft from longrange to short hops, using A320, A350, B787 and on top of it a large cargo fleet of A330, B777, B747 and a new lucrative 2 year contract with tHe UN.
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There is of course the counter argument that fuel is cheap. Spare parts for the A380 are going to be a lot cheaper after all the parting out of retired airframes and what better aircraft to allow some element of social distancing? There is no certainty that the A380 is finished. Although for it to have a chance some degree of innovative thinking is going to be required.
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Anchorage in Alaska was until the 1990s a major passenger hub purely due to its location. It was
once known as the crossroads of the world handling 500 747's a week.
Times and technologies change and its glory days are now over.
With regards to the ME hub we are talking about a harsh new reality that no one was prepared for.
Yes I agree this crisis might very well be the beginning of the end.
once known as the crossroads of the world handling 500 747's a week.
Times and technologies change and its glory days are now over.
With regards to the ME hub we are talking about a harsh new reality that no one was prepared for.
Yes I agree this crisis might very well be the beginning of the end.
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Try to think as analyst not as driver
On the contrary, I believe that Gulf companies will be among the first to come from the crisis. Australia is an example of witness and thought
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I dunno, I reckon the hub is here to stay. When it comes to Point to Point, I would argue that, unless you live in a point city, P2P does not exist. Take UK for example, an airline might only offer a P2P flight from London to Perth. If you want to go from Glasgow to Perth, you are going to go VIA London anyway......if that is P2P then they can keep it. It requires an uncoordinated local flight, quite possibly with a change in terminals. Yuk, I'm sorry but I will still prefer the flight from GLA that goes via DXB with possible a cheap stay-over thrown in or, at worst, a well coordinated connection.
Nah, IMHO, we can argue about when it will recover but the ME hub is here to stay.
Nah, IMHO, we can argue about when it will recover but the ME hub is here to stay.
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Yes that's the idea. Actually it's made longhoul travel easier cheaper it's asussful model also its doesn't mean that the direct flight will not be their. Look at the pax numbers how increasing every year and we'll be market for both models. Thanks
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a p2p network requires multiple bases unless that you will always be trapped in a hub operation
LH does P2P ex FRA, DUS, MUC,ZRH,VIE, BRU
without basing AC and crew you cannot start p2p
and even that requires feeding into the long haul operation
EK does everything without feeders still they don’t operat direct Perth for e.g
P2P is nearly impossible outside of domestic areas a fact which many airlines realized once started going long range
norwegian, Air Berlin , ltu just to be named
mix flying long rang and short haul requires hub operation unless you have a strong enough business to effort having 3 airplanes there and 2 here - not in such cost intense times where multi BN $ business runs chewing gum margins per seat
LH does P2P ex FRA, DUS, MUC,ZRH,VIE, BRU
without basing AC and crew you cannot start p2p
and even that requires feeding into the long haul operation
EK does everything without feeders still they don’t operat direct Perth for e.g
P2P is nearly impossible outside of domestic areas a fact which many airlines realized once started going long range
norwegian, Air Berlin , ltu just to be named
mix flying long rang and short haul requires hub operation unless you have a strong enough business to effort having 3 airplanes there and 2 here - not in such cost intense times where multi BN $ business runs chewing gum margins per seat
