EK to Decommission 50%+ of Airbus A380, Axe 1/2 of Pilots & Cabin Crew
QR have far fewer A380s in their fleet and can replace them relatively easily with other, more suitable types. With EK, they make up nearly half of the fleet and the airline has no other option once the B777s are fully committed.
It comes down to a choice between cancelling services or flying half empty A380s. A hub airline needs to offer reasonable connecting times, so frequency needs to be maintained. Consolidating flights to increase load factors can only be done to a limited extent, as once the waiting time in DXB goes much beyond about four hours pax will start looking elsewhere.
The super jumbo will be a drag on EK for the foreseeable future however it could still make an overall profit with the B777s and certain A380 sectors.
It comes down to a choice between cancelling services or flying half empty A380s. A hub airline needs to offer reasonable connecting times, so frequency needs to be maintained. Consolidating flights to increase load factors can only be done to a limited extent, as once the waiting time in DXB goes much beyond about four hours pax will start looking elsewhere.
The super jumbo will be a drag on EK for the foreseeable future however it could still make an overall profit with the B777s and certain A380 sectors.
He might have them back in the air, but with empty premium cabins and A320 size loads in economy I doubt they’ll be making money, especially as freight rates are likely to drop once more capacity becomes available with the recovery.
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Well, let's go back to the thread title.
If eventually they will bring back to fly almost all 380s, then there will be no axing of ½ of the FD+CC. Isn't that good news for us? It will be Dubai Inc that has to bear the losses and, honestly, who cares? We want our colleagues back on the payroll, don't we? Most probably a thinner one, but at least one.
There are two scenarios:
1. They got it right, the traffic rebounds, they make profits again, they might buy empty slots of economical airliners and send the 380s to the desert as flower pots. Jobs remain, the only thing will be to fight back for decent T&Cs.
2. They got it wrong, the traffic remains low, huge losses and Dubai pulls the trigger. A second round of mass staff culling starts, the 380s become flower pots as do a couple of old 777 and EK will go into GulfAir oblivion.
If you're still here, or if you get recalled, Nice, enjoy. But just be prepared for the eventual scenario 2.
If eventually they will bring back to fly almost all 380s, then there will be no axing of ½ of the FD+CC. Isn't that good news for us? It will be Dubai Inc that has to bear the losses and, honestly, who cares? We want our colleagues back on the payroll, don't we? Most probably a thinner one, but at least one.
There are two scenarios:
1. They got it right, the traffic rebounds, they make profits again, they might buy empty slots of economical airliners and send the 380s to the desert as flower pots. Jobs remain, the only thing will be to fight back for decent T&Cs.
2. They got it wrong, the traffic remains low, huge losses and Dubai pulls the trigger. A second round of mass staff culling starts, the 380s become flower pots as do a couple of old 777 and EK will go into GulfAir oblivion.
If you're still here, or if you get recalled, Nice, enjoy. But just be prepared for the eventual scenario 2.
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I tend to agree. There are still too many variables imho to expect STC to start offering jobs back in any numbers any time soon. The effectiveness of the vaccine against Covid-19, including the new strains, the appetite and ability of a financially hit public to travel, the time it will take to vaccinate (and administrate - vaccine certificate requirement to travel) enough of the population to be confident that we are on top of the situation etc will all delay any recovery. I'm not saying it won't happen, but when, where, at what pace and at what price are still unknown quantities.
Hoping for the best for all my unemployed colleagues of course.
Hoping for the best for all my unemployed colleagues of course.
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It would take a lot of work and considerable time to get pilots back and retrained. Many have not flown for 6 months plus at this stage. Even getting them back to Dubai and into the Emirates ‘family’ even prior to bottlenecks in retraining would take considerable time.
Getting the whole fleet flying this year is overly ambitious in my opinion, even without Covid.
Getting the whole fleet flying this year is overly ambitious in my opinion, even without Covid.
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I’m not sure WHY TC is following this strategy of being openly bullish and overly optimistic. EK has a history of being a market disruptor and going against convention in fleet choices, frequencies etc. and you have to admit they always made it work until now.
Reality is there will surely be a few leases that will expire in 2021 and 2022 so there goes dozen or so A380s. All of the sudden the whole fleet is ‘only’ 100.
You can technically have them all out of storage and ‘flying’ by end of the year with the crew they got albeit at a much lower utilization - a flight every 5 days per frame? And from there scale up.
Is that what he means? Does that make sense at all? So far they are using the opposite strategy with a small number of frams activated.
What’s clear is that EK wants to lead that eventual recovery. Their model is suddenly going to benefit them vs the point to point at the beginning plus they will need many frames to offer decent connection times to make their product attrative as said above.
Whilst is physically impossible to have all the crew back and current this year, I think they’ll slowly recall as they increase airframe utilization during the next 6 to 18 months or so.
Reality is there will surely be a few leases that will expire in 2021 and 2022 so there goes dozen or so A380s. All of the sudden the whole fleet is ‘only’ 100.
You can technically have them all out of storage and ‘flying’ by end of the year with the crew they got albeit at a much lower utilization - a flight every 5 days per frame? And from there scale up.
Is that what he means? Does that make sense at all? So far they are using the opposite strategy with a small number of frams activated.
What’s clear is that EK wants to lead that eventual recovery. Their model is suddenly going to benefit them vs the point to point at the beginning plus they will need many frames to offer decent connection times to make their product attrative as said above.
Whilst is physically impossible to have all the crew back and current this year, I think they’ll slowly recall as they increase airframe utilization during the next 6 to 18 months or so.
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Some if "recalled" will undoubtedly return, in the current job market. Some will never want to return, given the lousy treatment dished out to redundant employees. Many will get pressure from their other halves, to not return. EK seems to have the attitude, that we will all flood back on our knees. No we won't.
From day 1 of redundancy, no communication from upper management or indeed those lower down the food chain, nothing. No comms regards, we will recall you when the business needs you. Unlike other companies, that I know also had to make people redundant, but have kept those people made redundant in the loop, via Teams meetings and the like, should they wish to logon.
I wish and hope TCs dreams and prophecies come true, but I really do wonder, having pissed off so many staff, that will be achieved. Yes, they can hire newbies, but that creates a HUGE training footprint. Good luck with that!
From day 1 of redundancy, no communication from upper management or indeed those lower down the food chain, nothing. No comms regards, we will recall you when the business needs you. Unlike other companies, that I know also had to make people redundant, but have kept those people made redundant in the loop, via Teams meetings and the like, should they wish to logon.
I wish and hope TCs dreams and prophecies come true, but I really do wonder, having pissed off so many staff, that will be achieved. Yes, they can hire newbies, but that creates a HUGE training footprint. Good luck with that!
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and other companies are giving preference to those who are redundant in case of hirings, so they basically kept in the loop for a return
while EK - “you can send a application” once we open it again and start all over from the bottom again on new TnC
in other words EK could have sent everybody on UPL where both parties could have benefited in terms - EK has lot of people on the hand, while the employee knows sooner or later he still has a job - but know everything under control of EK - people sent on UPL and if you not there when they what you face a disciplinary and who gives a
how you survive in between not that the redundant a have it any better but at least they know for who they worked for
while EK - “you can send a application” once we open it again and start all over from the bottom again on new TnC
in other words EK could have sent everybody on UPL where both parties could have benefited in terms - EK has lot of people on the hand, while the employee knows sooner or later he still has a job - but know everything under control of EK - people sent on UPL and if you not there when they what you face a disciplinary and who gives a
how you survive in between not that the redundant a have it any better but at least they know for who they worked for
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The overall picture is looking good. Vaccination programmes are accelerating in general.
I’ve had 6/6 jam packed flights in all classes since leaving. There is no fear factor from passengers at all, unlike when this chaos first started.
I can definitely see things ramping up. Dubai hotels and restaurants packed out since December due to influx of British tourists. That’s proof of a successful system working together to attract pax over other destinations.
Offer discounts and perks and people come. Just wait until summer with far less restrictions around. That formula will be rolled out to many other destinations.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55709110
easyJet bookings up 250% for summer since last January - before all the cancellations.
I can imagine EK collaborating with Gov to almost give away flights and hotels during the Expo. That’s what they are building up to.
With lockdowns continuing, that will bring a stop to this sooner than expected.
Other airlines reducing or stopping long haul is a good thing - it means there’s more capacity to pick up by those that do remain.
Bigger than expected stimulus approved to prop up businesses and individuals until the vaccine takes effect.
UK has already vaccinated more vulnerable ppl than were ever infected last year. That’s a statistic to put things in perspective.
Vaccines are successful against current mutations. Having had covid in the past, is giving long natural protection too.
Herd immunity at 70%.
EK Crew getting vaccinated, again supporting their plans to be the airline of choice in a recovery.
Whilst some like Australia will likely keep borders closed for the year, most will be opening from summer onwards.
Rumour is a 5% reduction in pay coming for all. Current and rejoiners.
EK should have been using this time off to cost-efficiently retrofit a better hard product for the future, as the 777 is just embarrassing now for a premium carrier.
It will now be ~20 years with the worlds worst long haul business class seat on the majority of the fleet. This is the time to invest those hefty cash reserves.
The new premium economy, while shiny finishes is pretty bog standard - nothing special as promised even after years of planning. It’ll be a winner, again if they retrofit.
I’ve had 6/6 jam packed flights in all classes since leaving. There is no fear factor from passengers at all, unlike when this chaos first started.
I can definitely see things ramping up. Dubai hotels and restaurants packed out since December due to influx of British tourists. That’s proof of a successful system working together to attract pax over other destinations.
Offer discounts and perks and people come. Just wait until summer with far less restrictions around. That formula will be rolled out to many other destinations.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55709110
easyJet bookings up 250% for summer since last January - before all the cancellations.
I can imagine EK collaborating with Gov to almost give away flights and hotels during the Expo. That’s what they are building up to.
With lockdowns continuing, that will bring a stop to this sooner than expected.
Other airlines reducing or stopping long haul is a good thing - it means there’s more capacity to pick up by those that do remain.
Bigger than expected stimulus approved to prop up businesses and individuals until the vaccine takes effect.
UK has already vaccinated more vulnerable ppl than were ever infected last year. That’s a statistic to put things in perspective.
Vaccines are successful against current mutations. Having had covid in the past, is giving long natural protection too.
Herd immunity at 70%.
EK Crew getting vaccinated, again supporting their plans to be the airline of choice in a recovery.
Whilst some like Australia will likely keep borders closed for the year, most will be opening from summer onwards.
Rumour is a 5% reduction in pay coming for all. Current and rejoiners.
EK should have been using this time off to cost-efficiently retrofit a better hard product for the future, as the 777 is just embarrassing now for a premium carrier.
It will now be ~20 years with the worlds worst long haul business class seat on the majority of the fleet. This is the time to invest those hefty cash reserves.
The new premium economy, while shiny finishes is pretty bog standard - nothing special as promised even after years of planning. It’ll be a winner, again if they retrofit.
Last edited by Xulu; 18th Jan 2021 at 21:48. Reason: Extra
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By summer US, Europe, UK and a select few asian countries (ie. Singas) might have controlled the virus. Excellent news for domestic airlines.
However, where does that leave EK? Unlikely to bring pax to Dubai in summer... and most destinations east will still be struggling. Apparently Aussies we are loving isolating ourselves from the rest of the world so no kangaroo route til at least Christmas. No Bangkok and Phuket the way is looking...
What’s clear is that there is enormous pent up demand waiting for borders to re open.
However, where does that leave EK? Unlikely to bring pax to Dubai in summer... and most destinations east will still be struggling. Apparently Aussies we are loving isolating ourselves from the rest of the world so no kangaroo route til at least Christmas. No Bangkok and Phuket the way is looking...
What’s clear is that there is enormous pent up demand waiting for borders to re open.
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Expo 2020/21 will be interesting....they are hoping for tens of millions of visitors yet they don’t have the transport to Dubai to service, that hoped for demand. They have the fleet but not the crew or pilots. The 777 fleet is already close to maximum with regard to pilot hours, and hundreds and hundreds of pilots that were made redundant scattered to the winds and not current. The 380 has similar problems with very few pilots current or even flying and thousands let go. So assuming the Expo is to go ahead, as they say, with the numbers they quote, when will they start to ramp up the fleets again and get guys back and retrained? Or is it just smoke, mirrors and bluster.
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Few Guaranteed Returners......
About the time EK and the other sandpit airlines start to rehire, it is likely that other airlines around the globe will be doing the same. Given the possible pent-up demand, not many experienced pilots will wish to jump through all the hoops to reinstate themselves at companies which have treated them so shabbily. Selling-up, moving, immigration, house-hunting is all a stress, on top of simulator and line-training. Most non-locals will look to stay in their countries, if at all possible. Non-union employment protection will be a further serious consideration.
And the new T & C's are unlikely to be good anywhere, which removes the prime motivation for living and working in the desert cities.
Nevertheless a few optimists will rush back, eager to rejoin. They will be sorely disappointed, I feel, but there are some who do love the "lifestyle" out there.
With no particular axe to grind, and having had the experience of living and working out there, I foresee a major recruitment and training issue facing the ME carriers, in 2021 and beyond. The major competing carriers worldwide will not permit these airlines to gain competitive advantage so easily again.
And of course, I could be completely wrong. Time will tell.
And the new T & C's are unlikely to be good anywhere, which removes the prime motivation for living and working in the desert cities.
Nevertheless a few optimists will rush back, eager to rejoin. They will be sorely disappointed, I feel, but there are some who do love the "lifestyle" out there.
With no particular axe to grind, and having had the experience of living and working out there, I foresee a major recruitment and training issue facing the ME carriers, in 2021 and beyond. The major competing carriers worldwide will not permit these airlines to gain competitive advantage so easily again.
And of course, I could be completely wrong. Time will tell.
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I still think most will come back if given the chance apart from Americans and those skippers that were close enough to retirement. Most western airlines will recall their redundant pilots, they won't go and hire fresh ones for a while - that means EK is probably going to be the first chance to go back flying for most redundant.
All gringos I know got flying jobs rather quickly after redundancy from EK. Can't say the same about Brits, Europeans or Aussies.
Just in -- EU will vaccinate at least 70% of adult population by june 1st.
That should definitely help recovery.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...adults-by-june
All gringos I know got flying jobs rather quickly after redundancy from EK. Can't say the same about Brits, Europeans or Aussies.
Just in -- EU will vaccinate at least 70% of adult population by june 1st.
That should definitely help recovery.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...adults-by-june
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