EK to Decommission 50%+ of Airbus A380, Axe 1/2 of Pilots & Cabin Crew
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Have you guys all forgotten about the ‘there is no fear in our Training Organization’ email we all got?
There were numerous line guys with good records suffering from fear/stress from hearing all the horror stories or having to perform in a box at 3am when your head didn’t know where it was from the brutal rosters...
That, with also the system where TREs were called in if they had a too high pass rate says it all I would think....
Or the story with the ‘non graded’ handling sims...need more?
During my 15 years, I saw traning getting better (when I started it was shockingly bad) to get indeed much better over time...However everyone could feel the rot setting in over the past 5 to 7 years.
There are some top trainers on board, many have left, but we all know that we didn’t want to do a less than optimal sim as that could open a can of worms....
It all starts at the top... Look at how much respect the crew get from the top....zero...well there you go...
There were numerous line guys with good records suffering from fear/stress from hearing all the horror stories or having to perform in a box at 3am when your head didn’t know where it was from the brutal rosters...
That, with also the system where TREs were called in if they had a too high pass rate says it all I would think....
Or the story with the ‘non graded’ handling sims...need more?
During my 15 years, I saw traning getting better (when I started it was shockingly bad) to get indeed much better over time...However everyone could feel the rot setting in over the past 5 to 7 years.
There are some top trainers on board, many have left, but we all know that we didn’t want to do a less than optimal sim as that could open a can of worms....
It all starts at the top... Look at how much respect the crew get from the top....zero...well there you go...
Last edited by 5star; 28th Nov 2020 at 03:28. Reason: typo
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TRI/E role
I read all yor posts with interest and sadness as aviation used to be more passion and fun than trying to stay employed sort of thing.
I have to disagree only on one little bit of all that, which is the role and responsibilities of the instructors in relation to the pilots community morale.
As a TRE or TRI, you are the one calling the shots,that is why you run sims and stuff, company pressure will be always try to interfere, it's inevitable.
I do not think that if you,as a trainer should accept your PH Training to cross the line in what is not related to your job such as " I want you to mark the guys down a little more ", if that happens you should simply bail out and go fly the line.
Anyways,it is tough s@#t however we look at it and it is not going to change for sure.
I have to disagree only on one little bit of all that, which is the role and responsibilities of the instructors in relation to the pilots community morale.
As a TRE or TRI, you are the one calling the shots,that is why you run sims and stuff, company pressure will be always try to interfere, it's inevitable.
I do not think that if you,as a trainer should accept your PH Training to cross the line in what is not related to your job such as " I want you to mark the guys down a little more ", if that happens you should simply bail out and go fly the line.
Anyways,it is tough s@#t however we look at it and it is not going to change for sure.
They don't need to grow a pair. They just happen to be aware of the functions of serious training departments in other parts of the world. And what an open and no blame culture actually means.
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so for yourself It would be ok that your best buddy gets the good guy on the NAC course and yourself to maintain in the right seat because u got the incompetent idiot without any support - than your last argument is ok
its not a blaming - unfortunately it ek reality
EK training looks very fancy with to building , all that online courses with this fancy graphics and presentations - but it’s like everything in Dubai - outside nice and shine and inside
EK training mentalit is „ we through a bunch of online courses at you asking for the exams afterwards and that’s it - yet alone a 3 hour sim packed to the amount that at the end not even know what’s the topic of the year, but yes we briefed it for 2 hours
fact is that airlines with a real training mentality still stayed with a concept that the ATA chapters must be fulfilled every 3 years and not we make a catalog of 150plus possible failures of all chapters plus to cover every single flight phase - and if you made out of the deepest
the only comment was I don’t understand the way of your thinking that’s why I have to fail you - than something is severely wrong in the trainers and departments attitude towards training.
and I am not saying this concept of basically giving random failures is actually the worst as long as you have descent guys who use this concept to teach you certain things - but If you run in a you quite easily end up in deep - first of it luck, secondly very unproduktiv in terms of training - and yes it leaves everybody to blame the department because we all know how much better it could have been. EK training does not exist
its not a blaming - unfortunately it ek reality
EK training looks very fancy with to building , all that online courses with this fancy graphics and presentations - but it’s like everything in Dubai - outside nice and shine and inside
EK training mentalit is „ we through a bunch of online courses at you asking for the exams afterwards and that’s it - yet alone a 3 hour sim packed to the amount that at the end not even know what’s the topic of the year, but yes we briefed it for 2 hours
fact is that airlines with a real training mentality still stayed with a concept that the ATA chapters must be fulfilled every 3 years and not we make a catalog of 150plus possible failures of all chapters plus to cover every single flight phase - and if you made out of the deepest
the only comment was I don’t understand the way of your thinking that’s why I have to fail you - than something is severely wrong in the trainers and departments attitude towards training.and I am not saying this concept of basically giving random failures is actually the worst as long as you have descent guys who use this concept to teach you certain things - but If you run in a
you quite easily end up in deep - first of it luck, secondly very unproduktiv in terms of training - and yes it leaves everybody to blame the department because we all know how much better it could have been. EK training does not exist
Last edited by WB1900; 28th Nov 2020 at 20:58.
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fatbus
I'd hate to see this thread degenerate into a EK training dept. bashing - I believe that topic is beyond the scope of the discussion. I am still to read arguments that support why EK pilots are not amongst the best in the industry.
In any case, I think there were some interesting contributions regarding how and when the recovery will happen and reckon it would be great to bring back the discussion to the original topic.
I'd hate to see this thread degenerate into a EK training dept. bashing - I believe that topic is beyond the scope of the discussion. I am still to read arguments that support why EK pilots are not amongst the best in the industry.
In any case, I think there were some interesting contributions regarding how and when the recovery will happen and reckon it would be great to bring back the discussion to the original topic.
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One thing is for certain; EK is as keen and desperate as all of us redundant/unpaid leave pilots for the recovery to begin. When it does begin, EK imho, will try to lead the recovery rather than follow it and that is likely to mean that the bulk of any new job vacancies (for some time at least) will be in the Middle East. Probably on very average terms and conditions but those are the terms and conditions that the slowly recovering job market will allow. Legacy carriers in USA/EU will take pilots back off furlough and I think the freighter world will continue to be busy delivering vaccines around the world etc. But, notwithstanding all of the above, there are still going to be a lot of unemployed pilots for quite some time yet.
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Last edited by VThokie2; 29th Nov 2020 at 19:21.
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krismiler
Don't forget CX fired 550 Cathay Dragon Pilots and 2000 cabin crew with no prior notice, and then closed the airline.
The expat pilots dont even get an interline ticket home . A loverly touch .
Don't forget CX fired 550 Cathay Dragon Pilots and 2000 cabin crew with no prior notice, and then closed the airline.
The expat pilots dont even get an interline ticket home . A loverly touch .
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In the United States if a major airline had the failure rates EK possessed the FAA would come and investigate the training department and/or recruiting department. At my current carrier I actually look forward to recurrent training because I get to brush up on my skills, see what’s being highlighted lately, ask some questions (without the resultant change at EK from a 4 to a 3 in the “knowledge” PAM) and when they ask “ya wanna do something extra” the answer is YES! That is a REAL training department, the same cannot be honestly said going into an EK recurrent!
Sure, there will always be one or two idiots teaching in the schoolhouse but U.S. training is pretty much a low-threat scenario with a union card and the adjustment of standards to embrace non-traditional demographics. We're just a bunch of country boys and girls trying to earn a living. That pompous Sky-God stuff went out of fashion over the past three decades and was replaced by CRM and Kumbaya consensus building leadership. I can't remember hearing an American pilot (even a Deltoid
) brag about how well he or she flies the plane. Some do brag about how they got six weeks off for 120 hours of pay with conflict schedule bidding and a couple of weeks of vacation however.I remember a QF crew bragging years ago that only half of their command course candidates made the upgrade on the first try. I was impressed (but not favorably).
Not that long ago a couple of now former EK pilots deigned to lecture me here on karma. I wish them nothing but the best in their future endeavors.
Rumor from a friend at United is that EK may be looking for 787 pilots for planes from some defunct airline. He's close to retirement but still gets frequent unsolicited emails from crewing agencies for expat jobs based on his listed type ratings.
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2 hour brief 3 hour Sim 45 min de brief , has been that way for a few years .
I think it's the oztranauts that always like to tell everyone else how good they are. Read some of the threads in the Fragrant Harbour forum and you'll find the CX drivers claim to be the best there is, likewise in the Oz forum the QF pilots will tell you the same.
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Border Openings
IATA says 4.5 billion passengers flew in 2019 from a population of 7.8 billion people. Does that mean over half the World flew last year? Of course not. (If you flew LHR to SIN to MEL return on EK, that would count as 6 flights in these stats.)
Whilst impossible to know for sure, calculated guesses work out just 7% of the Worlds population have flown. This leads to an estimation of ~550m individual people that fly a year. https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-pl...ane-180957719/
3 of the 11 vaccines in stage 3 trials have already declared success. Between just those initial 3 there are already 3.3bn doses that will be rolled out in 2021. And that's only accelerating through transfer of knoweldge. An example of which is Oxford recently licensing the technology to Thailand to set up and manufacture their own vaccine, with delivery happening within 6 months. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...nufacturing--2
Not to mention the other 8 vaccines in advanced stages that will also add to this number of potential doses.
So with just the initially planned 3.3 billion doses, that is already enough for 1.65 billion people. And while manufacturers have signed up to COVAX, an initiative to distribute vaccines to poor countries, the vast majority of this initial run will go to Western economies and their combined 1bn population.
Therefore I think it's realistic to expect borders to be open in 2022, and importantly the relatively few people that could afford to travel on planes in 2019, will be vaccinated and fit to fly.
Passenger Demand
Again focussing on those who are rich enough to travel, Governments are gearing up huge stimulus packages. Debt is being written off, money printed, tax delayed, loans extended and jobs protected. The travel and hospitality industry will be offering huge discounts, and incentives to recapture lost business. Everything from Airlines to Car rentals. https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-ceo...r-2020-demand/
And with a shift to tech companies and digital services, many pension funds and investments have bounced back.
Airlines reporting massive underlying demand for travel as restrictions have come and gone. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...stmas-12142709
Speaking of which, do you think Emirates and Dubai will cautiously sit and watch Qatar ramp up and take all the traffic through Doha? Or Singapore/Cathay/Turkish?
I'm pretty sure flight capacity will be there. Just not profits. And capacity will take pilots.
Now Emirates has signed up to be a distributer of the vaccine over the next couple years. These flight will take away from potential passenger flights. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/emir...hallenge-.html
Recruitment
2021 is a write off for international travel. Initially I expected a return to flying in 2023, but 2022 is now looking like we'll see a strong recovery in demand. Business travel will take a hit for sure and be slow to recover. But I also anticipate more economy travellers wanting to fly business for that social distance and peace of mind. Crucially, I fully expect the airlines will be flying and competing in 2022, fuelled by subsidies, discounts, hotel partners and travel agent deals.
We should also recognise that unlike most carriers, a significant percentage of EK business class travel is from wealthy expats, and locals. Both groups will continue to fly.
Airlines, as always, will underestimate just how long it takes to get people back on line, and greedily try to squeeze remaining workforce as much as possible. With the 777 busy flying cargo and vaccine distribution - the only way to ramp up passenger ops in 2022 will be through recruitment or callbacks. This process will have to start within a year to have any chance of success. With the UPL guys, they only have enough to operate ~40 a380s from the 125. As an expat airline, it takes longer than usual to recruit people.
Now a question to ask yourself is: What kind of management outlook is there at Emirates? Optimistic and opportunistic - or careful and cautious?
As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.
All this to say, chin up fellas. It's coming, and the World will need your skills and experience again.
IATA says 4.5 billion passengers flew in 2019 from a population of 7.8 billion people. Does that mean over half the World flew last year? Of course not. (If you flew LHR to SIN to MEL return on EK, that would count as 6 flights in these stats.)
Whilst impossible to know for sure, calculated guesses work out just 7% of the Worlds population have flown. This leads to an estimation of ~550m individual people that fly a year. https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-pl...ane-180957719/
3 of the 11 vaccines in stage 3 trials have already declared success. Between just those initial 3 there are already 3.3bn doses that will be rolled out in 2021. And that's only accelerating through transfer of knoweldge. An example of which is Oxford recently licensing the technology to Thailand to set up and manufacture their own vaccine, with delivery happening within 6 months. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...nufacturing--2
Not to mention the other 8 vaccines in advanced stages that will also add to this number of potential doses.
So with just the initially planned 3.3 billion doses, that is already enough for 1.65 billion people. And while manufacturers have signed up to COVAX, an initiative to distribute vaccines to poor countries, the vast majority of this initial run will go to Western economies and their combined 1bn population.
Therefore I think it's realistic to expect borders to be open in 2022, and importantly the relatively few people that could afford to travel on planes in 2019, will be vaccinated and fit to fly.
Passenger Demand
Again focussing on those who are rich enough to travel, Governments are gearing up huge stimulus packages. Debt is being written off, money printed, tax delayed, loans extended and jobs protected. The travel and hospitality industry will be offering huge discounts, and incentives to recapture lost business. Everything from Airlines to Car rentals. https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-ceo...r-2020-demand/
And with a shift to tech companies and digital services, many pension funds and investments have bounced back.
Airlines reporting massive underlying demand for travel as restrictions have come and gone. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...stmas-12142709
Speaking of which, do you think Emirates and Dubai will cautiously sit and watch Qatar ramp up and take all the traffic through Doha? Or Singapore/Cathay/Turkish?
I'm pretty sure flight capacity will be there. Just not profits. And capacity will take pilots.
Now Emirates has signed up to be a distributer of the vaccine over the next couple years. These flight will take away from potential passenger flights. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/emir...hallenge-.html
Recruitment
2021 is a write off for international travel. Initially I expected a return to flying in 2023, but 2022 is now looking like we'll see a strong recovery in demand. Business travel will take a hit for sure and be slow to recover. But I also anticipate more economy travellers wanting to fly business for that social distance and peace of mind. Crucially, I fully expect the airlines will be flying and competing in 2022, fuelled by subsidies, discounts, hotel partners and travel agent deals.
We should also recognise that unlike most carriers, a significant percentage of EK business class travel is from wealthy expats, and locals. Both groups will continue to fly.
Airlines, as always, will underestimate just how long it takes to get people back on line, and greedily try to squeeze remaining workforce as much as possible. With the 777 busy flying cargo and vaccine distribution - the only way to ramp up passenger ops in 2022 will be through recruitment or callbacks. This process will have to start within a year to have any chance of success. With the UPL guys, they only have enough to operate ~40 a380s from the 125. As an expat airline, it takes longer than usual to recruit people.
Now a question to ask yourself is: What kind of management outlook is there at Emirates? Optimistic and opportunistic - or careful and cautious?
As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.
All this to say, chin up fellas. It's coming, and the World will need your skills and experience again.
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A nice, positive post and not unrealistic. Fingers crossed.
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Xulu
As much as i would like all this to come true, i guess it looks somewhat optimistic. We love optimistic outlooks, but when i read your statement ...
As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.
... I really can't see too many pilots coming back into an UPL, especially not those with families. After the experience of this year, the trust in EK is no longer there. Even as many say, a lot will do anything to get bread on the table, UPL does not really do that and relocating again works almost only for singles.
There are other forecasts that are somewhat less optimistic and frankly, if it was to go back to the ME, I'd consider them as much as putting my hopes on yours.
https://www.eurocontrol.int/publicat...cast-2020-2024
Just an excerpt:
“Even in the most positive scenario, we do not expect a recovery to 2019 levels before 2024. There is a very real prospect that this recovery could take even longer, perhaps to as far out as 2029. This is a catastrophic picture for the aviation industry and shows clearly why it is so important for States to take consistent and coherent measures to support the aviation industry and make passengers feel safe to fly again.”
and:
"The forecast is based on three headline scenarios,
As much as i would like all this to come true, i guess it looks somewhat optimistic. We love optimistic outlooks, but when i read your statement ...
As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.
... I really can't see too many pilots coming back into an UPL, especially not those with families. After the experience of this year, the trust in EK is no longer there. Even as many say, a lot will do anything to get bread on the table, UPL does not really do that and relocating again works almost only for singles.
There are other forecasts that are somewhat less optimistic and frankly, if it was to go back to the ME, I'd consider them as much as putting my hopes on yours.
https://www.eurocontrol.int/publicat...cast-2020-2024
Just an excerpt:
“Even in the most positive scenario, we do not expect a recovery to 2019 levels before 2024. There is a very real prospect that this recovery could take even longer, perhaps to as far out as 2029. This is a catastrophic picture for the aviation industry and shows clearly why it is so important for States to take consistent and coherent measures to support the aviation industry and make passengers feel safe to fly again.”
and:
"The forecast is based on three headline scenarios,
- Scenario 1 – Vaccine Summer 2021
Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2021, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2024. - Scenario 2 – Vaccine Summer 2022
Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2022, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2026. - Scenario 3 – Vaccine not effective
Lingering infection and low passenger confidence, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2029."
