EK to Decommission 50%+ of Airbus A380, Axe 1/2 of Pilots & Cabin Crew
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UAE reported over 20000 new cases in a two week period, yet somehow the active cases continued to go down. Unless they figured out how to get rid of the virus quickly I call B/s. only a couple of days ago did it start going back up.
The UAE may possibly be misrepresenting its COVID case numbers in an attempt to open up to other countries. Singapore had very few deaths due to COVID as most of the cases occurred in fit young migrant workers, rather than general population and the dormitories were easy to lock down to contain the spread. Out of the 58 000 cases, 94% were in the dormitories and there have been only 28 fatalities.
If the situation is similar in Dubai, a cover up would be relatively easy as they wouldn’t be dealing with large numbers of bodies.
COVID case numbers are spreading like wildfire in the important markets of Europe, USA and India. Travel bubbles are a highly restrictive solution and won’t provide pax in the numbers the airlines need. Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea which were thought to have beaten the virus are showing a worrying increase in cases.
The best solution is a vaccine, and recent news has been very encouraging with several highly effective ones likely to be available in the next few weeks. Widespread use coming in the early part of next year.
However long haul transit traffic, particularly at the premium end will be the last to recover. Unlike other hub airlines, EK don’t have smaller aircraft to downgrade to. SQ and CX are becoming narrow body operators, and with SQ grounding the A380 and most B777s they have stopped selling suites and first class for the next year.
Bill Gates predicts a 50% reduction in business travel post COVID, and even if he’s only half right it’s still a major drop.
EK need a complete restructure in its business model for it to complete going forwards. Long range, premium travel in large aircraft needs to change to smaller aircraft doing shorter flights with more emphasis on volume passengers. The A321 and B787 appear to be preferred types for the next few years.
If the situation is similar in Dubai, a cover up would be relatively easy as they wouldn’t be dealing with large numbers of bodies.
COVID case numbers are spreading like wildfire in the important markets of Europe, USA and India. Travel bubbles are a highly restrictive solution and won’t provide pax in the numbers the airlines need. Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea which were thought to have beaten the virus are showing a worrying increase in cases.
The best solution is a vaccine, and recent news has been very encouraging with several highly effective ones likely to be available in the next few weeks. Widespread use coming in the early part of next year.
However long haul transit traffic, particularly at the premium end will be the last to recover. Unlike other hub airlines, EK don’t have smaller aircraft to downgrade to. SQ and CX are becoming narrow body operators, and with SQ grounding the A380 and most B777s they have stopped selling suites and first class for the next year.
Bill Gates predicts a 50% reduction in business travel post COVID, and even if he’s only half right it’s still a major drop.
EK need a complete restructure in its business model for it to complete going forwards. Long range, premium travel in large aircraft needs to change to smaller aircraft doing shorter flights with more emphasis on volume passengers. The A321 and B787 appear to be preferred types for the next few years.
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Forgetting all the cases/numbers/bill gates predictions, the simple truth is that the very environment for which these airlines have been created simply does not exist anymore and will not exist for a relatively long time.
This applies to many other businesses too.
Now, you either face and approach this trying to reinvent a business that simply doesn’t make any financial sense anymore as it is right now, or you sit and wait for things to go back to 2019 which they will not.
Many government backed airlines were losing money before covid anyway so I don’t thing a change is coming soon for those. After all, air transport is a NEED, a STRATEGIC ASSET, and a SERVICE for the governments and the community. And it should be seen and backed as such. And supported when times are not ideal. We are not selling birthday cards here.
But for any business which actually tries to make some money, well they either change completely or you know what happens next.
We’ll see which airlines have the most visionary managers, and the governments with the deepest pockets (the latter one being the only real chance of survival right now, as simple as that). But if you ask me, good luck with waiting for the British family going on a Thai holiday.
This applies to many other businesses too.
Now, you either face and approach this trying to reinvent a business that simply doesn’t make any financial sense anymore as it is right now, or you sit and wait for things to go back to 2019 which they will not.
Many government backed airlines were losing money before covid anyway so I don’t thing a change is coming soon for those. After all, air transport is a NEED, a STRATEGIC ASSET, and a SERVICE for the governments and the community. And it should be seen and backed as such. And supported when times are not ideal. We are not selling birthday cards here.
But for any business which actually tries to make some money, well they either change completely or you know what happens next.
We’ll see which airlines have the most visionary managers, and the governments with the deepest pockets (the latter one being the only real chance of survival right now, as simple as that). But if you ask me, good luck with waiting for the British family going on a Thai holiday.
Last edited by bringbackthe80s; 20th Nov 2020 at 00:32.
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Originally Posted by bringbackthe80s
good luck with waiting for the British family going on a Thai holiday.
Originally Posted by krismiler
Bill Gates predicts a 50% reduction in business travel post COVID, and even if he’s only half right it’s still a major drop.
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"Think you may be in for a surprise.... Many thousands of Brits will be looking forward to escaping once travel is less restrictive!"
Both Dubai and Thailand as well as others need millions of tourists not thousands ! With many of those would be tourists are now unemployed.
My guess and only that, a guess, very long recovery.
Both Dubai and Thailand as well as others need millions of tourists not thousands ! With many of those would be tourists are now unemployed.
My guess and only that, a guess, very long recovery.
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As well as Brits, most Northern Europeans, Russians, Chinese.....and anyone else who is either sun-starved or shopping starved. Here in Malaysia, as soon as restrictions on inter-state travel were lifted, movement resumed in large numbers of domestic travellers. International travel was (and still is) largely impossible, but I suspect the same would have occurred had it been a practical option. My guess is that there is similar suppressed demand everywhere so recovery will be 'V' shaped rather than gradual. For everyone still in the airline business, especially former friends and colleagues, I certainly hope that will be the case.
And I'm buying Airline and Cruise stocks in limited quantities
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And I'm buying Airline and Cruise stocks in limited quantities
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fatbus
Leisure travel will recover fairly quickly once the restrictions a lifted - but business travel is going to be a long shot likely never
even there was a trend before COVID to have physical meetings and technology made some progress towards virtual meetings still 70-80% left in real meetings - due to COVID this technology made a huge jump forward and has turned the game completely towards only 30% of your business need a real contact and that’s the scary part
Leisure travel will recover fairly quickly once the restrictions a lifted - but business travel is going to be a long shot likely never
even there was a trend before COVID to have physical meetings and technology made some progress towards virtual meetings still 70-80% left in real meetings - due to COVID this technology made a huge jump forward and has turned the game completely towards only 30% of your business need a real contact and that’s the scary part
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Business Travel comeback
I suspect business travel will also bounce back. My brother works for a well known multi-national commodities/mining company, and he and many of his colleagues are simply unable to carry out their work via conference calls. Their travel is obviously currently restricted, and they are itching to start moving again. I agree that it’s only a sample of one, but I suspect that many industries or sectors will be in similar situations.
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The interesting bit will be how exactly Emirates will carry these passengers. They have decimated the A380 fleet and hacked the 777 workforce back to minimums. Even if it is a V shaped recovery post vaccine are they prepared and able to service the pent up demand?
Thread Starter
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wow the discussion has changed now to how quickly ek will recover and be the “best of the best” instead of how they treated their pilots like garbage
amazing... please start a new thread - this is about EK crew getting dumped, not about TCTC future!
amazing... please start a new thread - this is about EK crew getting dumped, not about TCTC future!
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Fired600, Emirates have 400 Airbus pilots they can bring back with a month's notice - most would be able to (and, crucially, want to) come back with less. That is before they start to recall the ones they made redundant, most of whom would be begging to come back just to put food on the table. The 380s are parked up at Dubai World, not in some corner of Arizona or Australia, and they can be made serviceable again very quickly. They can service any remotely conceivable increase in demand.
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With regard to premium travel, I think that might bounce back quicker than economy if there is a perception that it is more covid secure due to greater social distancing, being able to wait in a lounge rather than the terminal and so on. It is all about perception at the moment.
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And this exactly what TC wanted starve everyone so they will come back no matter what - and his stated „no worries about employees they all will come back“ and best is he again can do what ever he wants in terms of TnC - isn’t it great
BigGeordie
Highly unlikely. Look at the numbers you are talking about. Someone who would pay £850 for LHR-BKK via Dubai return, won't go on an pay £3600 for the same journey just to be more socially distanced.
Especially after IATA reported that out of 1.5bn passengers flown in 2020 there have been only 44 flight-related covid infections.
Highly unlikely. Look at the numbers you are talking about. Someone who would pay £850 for LHR-BKK via Dubai return, won't go on an pay £3600 for the same journey just to be more socially distanced.
Especially after IATA reported that out of 1.5bn passengers flown in 2020 there have been only 44 flight-related covid infections.
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Originally Posted by Fired600
You would think they would ramp the 777 first since its easier to fill and cheaper, but who knows.
Originally Posted by EchoKilla
please start a new thread - this is about EK crew getting dumped
Last edited by White Knight; 21st Nov 2020 at 17:02. Reason: Quotes dumped somewhere in the ether...
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WB1900
Anyone who has studied the basics of instructing and teaching will tell you that over 80% of a conversation is made up of body language. It can't be done over a video link! I'd reckon that any company about to negotiate and sign a big money contract would rather have their people fly premium, have the meeting and seal a deal and fly back again. That 10,000 USD First Class ticket may make millions of dollars in a human to human deal. The pundits have tried to write off business travel every time there's a hiccup. It's always come back!
Anyone who has studied the basics of instructing and teaching will tell you that over 80% of a conversation is made up of body language. It can't be done over a video link! I'd reckon that any company about to negotiate and sign a big money contract would rather have their people fly premium, have the meeting and seal a deal and fly back again. That 10,000 USD First Class ticket may make millions of dollars in a human to human deal. The pundits have tried to write off business travel every time there's a hiccup. It's always come back!
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i could not agree more to what you said - I am old school and think meeting in person has much more value than anything else, but being an IT fuzzy as well I see some industrial trends which scares me and leaving room for doubt on a fast and big bounce back of industrial or business travel
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What are the pax loads like on the flights ? Flying around with double digit pax numbers isn't sustainable long term. Freight may be a big factor at the moment and might tip the scale past covering costs to actually making a profit on the operation, though overall the company is losing money. The A380 is almost certainly being used as nothing else is available and aircraft/crew currency can be maintained. If B777s, B787s or A350s could be used instead then the giant would be in a long term storage program.
