Emirates expansion
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Emirates expansion
I recently travelled on Emirates and read on the inflight entertainment info (ICE) that there are very little B777s on order vs a large A380 order. My perception was that the 777 was the workhorse for EK vs the 380 that flies to less destinations and offered a bit a of dated experience vs the 777. Is the 380 the future of EK or is the foresight of expansion at EK in terms of a workhorse like the 777 a bit limited?
Last edited by Springbok614; 19th Nov 2018 at 07:02.
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And does it really mean that new joiners on the 777 will face much longer upgrade times here or the things are so unpredictable at EK so it is not possible to take a reasonably realistic guess?
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Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
The math has to include 4% of everyone senior, so that should mean a fairly breezy 13 years to command, plus any delays caused by DECs, politics and fleet contraction.. Given the 52% attrition rate over 13 years there’s a better-than-even chance of any new hire fleeing before upgrading anyway.
My experience, upgrading with a hated employer was that it wasn’t worth the wait.
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Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
Luckily there will always be someone in some department that are willing to spill the beans so here it goes:
About a week ago there were 2643 B777 pilots, 1410 CPT's and 1233 FO's
One year ago that number was 2623, 1322 CPT's and 1301 FO's.
The reason the amount of Captains went up was due to the sudden requirement that all 3 men operations needed to become 2 CPT and 1 FO, whereas EK before operated 1CPT/2FO
About 105 captains resigned last 12 months. Last 3 years it's been pretty consistent around 100 (2015 - 96, 2016 - 103)
6 DEC (direct entry captains) joined.
Moving ahead with 3 key facts in mind:
Upgrade is solely depending on attrition as the fleet is no longer expanding.
B777X is a replacement program, not expansion
Around 100 skippers leaves each year.
The current total number of pilots divided with number of airframes suggests 16 pilots per airframe (2643/165) with a ratio of 8,5 CPT to 7,5 FO.
13 airframes leaving 2019 meaning 13*8,5 = 110 less skippers needed
At present, an FO that joined B777 in:
Nov -17 has about 1070 pilots ahead of him/her.
Nov -16 / 955 ahead
Nov -15 / 575 ahead
Nov -14 / 440 ahead
Nov -13 / has about 350 FO's more senior.
Realistical conclusion is practically nil upgrades 2019, 100-120 upgrades 2020 onwards.
Half of the guys joining between nov-13 and -nov14 will see their upgrade 2020 and the other half 2021 setting the time to command to about 7 years.
It'll stay pretty constant for a few years to slowly increase to 8 around 2023 onwards.
That's based on current fleet plan, rate of people leaving and upgrade policy.
Someone joining 2019 will wait 8 years++ for a command on B777 factoring in senior FO's leaving and an increase in numbers of CPT's leaving.
Common arguments:
"there are many locals in that list that is far away from upgrade".
True and false, There are about 190 UAE nationals with staff numbers <430000 that is included in these numbers.
However, around 100 of them have staff numbers <399000 meaning they'll be up for command fairly soon
"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.
"a lot of FO's have missed out on their upgrade and are permanent FO's"
About 50
On a side note:
Total number of EK pilots:
Nov 18: 4231.
Nov 17: 4200
Nov 16: 4215
All-time-high was February 2017 with 4250
You can scramble numbers to hide the truth but never the opposite!
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That a good recap . I'm sure @ the same on the 380. Would be surprised to see 777 x options become the 787 hence no measurable fleet increase for 5-8 years. Capt upgrades purely due to attrition both fleets.
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Thenumberpilot, interesting numbers- thank you. Would this suggest that EK have reached it’s capacity as an airline in terms of it’s offering in the global airline passenger market? No further/ immediate room for expansion in terms of passenger demand for what it offers? Does FZ’s offering play a role in this or is there not much conflict in the different offerings?
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Does anyone know what will happen to the 787 orders? At RTGS the managers are planning for them coming, so if that happens, (and they don't end up with flydubai) the numbers will change, a lot.
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Commands on A380 may continue as normal but for the B777 it has slowed down a lot already and is getting even longer day-by-day
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"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.
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Simple mathematical fact is upgrade time on the 777 is slowing down a lot!
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There will always be the glass half full pilots . Many FOs hoping the 4.1 year thing is a reality. Dig deeper into STC statements in the press and one should be able to put together the puzzle. Firm vs options vs replacement vs airport capacity vs airport construction.