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Emirates expansion

Middle East Many expats still flying in Knoteetingham. Regional issues can be discussed here.

Emirates expansion

Old 21st Nov 2018, 12:18
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: SZR
Posts: 57
Originally Posted by kcar View Post
Read "thenumberpilots" post again.
Completely irrelevant. This guy did his upgrade AFTER the age limit change.

Don't forget there is no seniority with the upgrades. You either fit the model or they skip you *cough* too many sick days *cough*.
seven3seven is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 15:50
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Asia
Posts: 42
Originally Posted by seven3seven View Post
Completely irrelevant. This guy did his upgrade AFTER the age limit change.

Don't forget there is no seniority with the upgrades. You either fit the model or they skip you *cough* too many sick days *cough*.
He must have been in the process when the age requirement change occurred and was just lucky to stay with the plan.
Simple mathematical fact is upgrade time on the 777 is slowing down a lot!
kcar is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 19:05
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: SZR
Posts: 57
Not my mate at all. First time flying with the guy. Just passing on facts.

I just don't see upgrades slowing down at all. Especially with the 787's.
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Old 21st Nov 2018, 23:20
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,629
There will always be the glass half full pilots . Many FOs hoping the 4.1 year thing is a reality. Dig deeper into STC statements in the press and one should be able to put together the puzzle. Firm vs options vs replacement vs airport capacity vs airport construction.
fatbus is offline  
Old 24th Nov 2018, 16:50
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NQLD
Age: 34
Posts: 193
Regardless of all the mental arithmetic in this thread, none of us can really predict the future. That being said I agree the recent 4 year upgrades are an anomaly rather than the new normal!

Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what Iíve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command. Given a lot of people seem to leave about 7-9 years I would guess resignations may actually increase.

The loss of 777 airframes in 2019 will have less of an effect than feared because they already had most of them parked at various times throughout this year. So EK arenít really using the full fleet anyway.

When the 787 and 777X arrives wonít they have to transfer a number of crew over to those fleets to start training etc? So for a while they will need extra crew until they establish sufficient numbers to keep everything running smoothly.

In my experience (from asking people working here) we loose a few f/oís before upgrade, a lot of captains around 7-9 years and then thereís the 15+ veterans that donít want to go home. Personally out of the 9 guys I joined with itís highly likely only 7 of us will still be here by the time our shot at upgrade comes around.

Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I donít think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I wonít wait that long, Iíll be gone before then.
aviation_enthus is offline  
Old 25th Nov 2018, 08:01
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New York
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by aviation_enthus View Post
Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what Iíve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command.
Some more "Mental arithmetic"

Resignations both fleet between
Nov 17 - Nov 18: 266 (making it 6,2%)
Nov 16 - Nov 17: 212 (5,1%)
Nov 15 - Nov 16: 198 (5,1%)

Out of the "700 pilots" ..
I guess you'd be interested in the ones reaching 7 years and 3 month for the provident fund, meaning people that resigns on the 7y mark then fulfil their 90 days notice. Counting from this date backwards.
25/11/2011 - 24/11/2012 - 516 people joined, 416 are still with the company of which 293 are on the 777 consisting of 235 captains and 58 FO's.
From the "normality" of 100 B777 skippers leaving pear year EK had a statistical increase of about 8%, likely due to the 7 year mark and hiring spike back in 2010-2012 like you said. I myself was guilty of expecting a significant increase in resignations 2017-2018 but that significant increase turned out to be less than 10%
People bitch and moan claiming they'll leave but numbers proves they don't, at least not in any significant number.
I guess it's a case of "the more I bitch and moan I will encourage other people to leave, less will join and the company will just have to bump up the package and get me what I deserve".
Before you pass judgement, I was one of the ones bumping up the stats by 8%

So for the mental arithmetic side of things you can safely assume the B777 capt attrition to be 110 per year onwards.

One thing to consider though, the world economy and aviation industry has had a long upswing so an unavoidable downturn is lurking around the corner. Hiring in the developed world will likely reduce significantly meaning less people will leave EK and instead decide to ride out the storm. This is the second longest business cycle expansion since the history of economic research dated back to 1850. If no contraction before July 2019 it'll be the longest ever. The longest expansion to date finished in 2001 which for the aviation industry resulted in a complete hiring freeze.
Naturally I can't put a number on that but it's something to take under consideration for future career planning.
Originally Posted by aviation_enthus View Post
Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I donít think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I wonít wait that long, Iíll be gone before then.
I'm going to take a wild guess and say you joined Dec 2016 with a 456xxx staff number.
The most "senior" 456xxx 777 pilot has got 962 777 FO's ahead of him.
You do the math

Bye bye Dubai
thenumberpilot is offline  
Old 25th Nov 2018, 18:42
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Doctor's waiting room
Posts: 679
Originally Posted by directimped View Post
Why the obsession with upgrade? Is EK suddenly a great place to work from the left seat? Don't think so. Better finding a job you actually like, in a country you actually want to live in. Even if that means flying something more modest, but at least you aren't bitching and moaning all night long.
It can't be denied that a command will open more opportunities for moving on from EK. I suspect that herein is the main motive for getting the command for many.

Originally Posted by seven3seven View Post
Don't forget there is no seniority with the upgrades. You either fit the model or they skip you *cough* too many sick days *cough*.
If seniority was not considered then how would they decide who to review for the forthcoming command review board? Just because someone is unfortunate to get bypassed, doesn't mean that seniority is not an initial consideration, when it comes to reviewing suitable candidates.
Emma Royds is offline  
Old 26th Nov 2018, 05:04
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,629
Yet again someone who was bypassed for what ever the reason moans the most and makes it sound like it's the norm.
fatbus is offline  
Old 26th Nov 2018, 20:54
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Surrounding the localizer
Posts: 2,200
I’ve had a mate hit me up regarding a variety of things, most which I can answer...the one thing I’m struggling with is the current education allowance for kids at primary and secondary school. Any numbers would be great.
haughtney1 is offline  
Old 27th Nov 2018, 06:29
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: UAE
Posts: 275
The thirty-somethings were happy to bypass the more senior FOs who were 30 or 31. Now that the age restriction has been reduced to 30, they call fowl that their upgrade is being delayed or in their words "bypassed". Seniority has always been a factor when it comes to the review board, and always will.
777-200LR is offline  
Old 27th Nov 2018, 14:56
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: SZR
Posts: 57
Originally Posted by Emma Royds View Post
It can't be denied that a command will open more opportunities for moving on from EK. I suspect that herein is the main motive for getting the command for many.



If seniority was not considered then how would they decide who to review for the forthcoming command review board? Just because someone is unfortunate to get bypassed, doesn't mean that seniority is not an initial consideration, when it comes to reviewing suitable candidates.
Thats true I guess.

Originally Posted by fatbus View Post
Yet again someone who was bypassed for what ever the reason moans the most and makes it sound like it's the norm.
Come on fatbus, really? I'm actually a 3 year FO and haven't been bypassed at all.

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.
seven3seven is offline  

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