Emirates expansion
Regardless of all the mental arithmetic in this thread, none of us can really predict the future. That being said I agree the recent 4 year upgrades are an anomaly rather than the new normal!
Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what I’ve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command. Given a lot of people seem to leave about 7-9 years I would guess resignations may actually increase.
The loss of 777 airframes in 2019 will have less of an effect than feared because they already had most of them parked at various times throughout this year. So EK aren’t really using the full fleet anyway.
When the 787 and 777X arrives won’t they have to transfer a number of crew over to those fleets to start training etc? So for a while they will need extra crew until they establish sufficient numbers to keep everything running smoothly.
In my experience (from asking people working here) we loose a few f/o’s before upgrade, a lot of captains around 7-9 years and then there’s the 15+ veterans that don’t want to go home. Personally out of the 9 guys I joined with it’s highly likely only 7 of us will still be here by the time our shot at upgrade comes around.
Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I don’t think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I won’t wait that long, I’ll be gone before then.
Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what I’ve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command. Given a lot of people seem to leave about 7-9 years I would guess resignations may actually increase.
The loss of 777 airframes in 2019 will have less of an effect than feared because they already had most of them parked at various times throughout this year. So EK aren’t really using the full fleet anyway.
When the 787 and 777X arrives won’t they have to transfer a number of crew over to those fleets to start training etc? So for a while they will need extra crew until they establish sufficient numbers to keep everything running smoothly.
In my experience (from asking people working here) we loose a few f/o’s before upgrade, a lot of captains around 7-9 years and then there’s the 15+ veterans that don’t want to go home. Personally out of the 9 guys I joined with it’s highly likely only 7 of us will still be here by the time our shot at upgrade comes around.
Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I don’t think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I won’t wait that long, I’ll be gone before then.
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Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what I’ve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command.
Some more "Mental arithmetic"
Resignations both fleet between
Nov 17 - Nov 18: 266 (making it 6,2%)
Nov 16 - Nov 17: 212 (5,1%)
Nov 15 - Nov 16: 198 (5,1%)
Out of the "700 pilots" ..
I guess you'd be interested in the ones reaching 7 years and 3 month for the provident fund, meaning people that resigns on the 7y mark then fulfil their 90 days notice. Counting from this date backwards.
25/11/2011 - 24/11/2012 - 516 people joined, 416 are still with the company of which 293 are on the 777 consisting of 235 captains and 58 FO's.
From the "normality" of 100 B777 skippers leaving pear year EK had a statistical increase of about 8%, likely due to the 7 year mark and hiring spike back in 2010-2012 like you said. I myself was guilty of expecting a significant increase in resignations 2017-2018 but that significant increase turned out to be less than 10%
People bitch and moan claiming they'll leave but numbers proves they don't, at least not in any significant number.
I guess it's a case of "the more I bitch and moan I will encourage other people to leave, less will join and the company will just have to bump up the package and get me what I deserve".
Before you pass judgement, I was one of the ones bumping up the stats by 8%
So for the mental arithmetic side of things you can safely assume the B777 capt attrition to be 110 per year onwards.
One thing to consider though, the world economy and aviation industry has had a long upswing so an unavoidable downturn is lurking around the corner. Hiring in the developed world will likely reduce significantly meaning less people will leave EK and instead decide to ride out the storm. This is the second longest business cycle expansion since the history of economic research dated back to 1850. If no contraction before July 2019 it'll be the longest ever. The longest expansion to date finished in 2001 which for the aviation industry resulted in a complete hiring freeze.
Naturally I can't put a number on that but it's something to take under consideration for future career planning.
I'm going to take a wild guess and say you joined Dec 2016 with a 456xxx staff number.Resignations both fleet between
Nov 17 - Nov 18: 266 (making it 6,2%)
Nov 16 - Nov 17: 212 (5,1%)
Nov 15 - Nov 16: 198 (5,1%)
Out of the "700 pilots" ..
I guess you'd be interested in the ones reaching 7 years and 3 month for the provident fund, meaning people that resigns on the 7y mark then fulfil their 90 days notice. Counting from this date backwards.
25/11/2011 - 24/11/2012 - 516 people joined, 416 are still with the company of which 293 are on the 777 consisting of 235 captains and 58 FO's.
From the "normality" of 100 B777 skippers leaving pear year EK had a statistical increase of about 8%, likely due to the 7 year mark and hiring spike back in 2010-2012 like you said. I myself was guilty of expecting a significant increase in resignations 2017-2018 but that significant increase turned out to be less than 10%
People bitch and moan claiming they'll leave but numbers proves they don't, at least not in any significant number.
I guess it's a case of "the more I bitch and moan I will encourage other people to leave, less will join and the company will just have to bump up the package and get me what I deserve".
Before you pass judgement, I was one of the ones bumping up the stats by 8%
So for the mental arithmetic side of things you can safely assume the B777 capt attrition to be 110 per year onwards.
One thing to consider though, the world economy and aviation industry has had a long upswing so an unavoidable downturn is lurking around the corner. Hiring in the developed world will likely reduce significantly meaning less people will leave EK and instead decide to ride out the storm. This is the second longest business cycle expansion since the history of economic research dated back to 1850. If no contraction before July 2019 it'll be the longest ever. The longest expansion to date finished in 2001 which for the aviation industry resulted in a complete hiring freeze.
Naturally I can't put a number on that but it's something to take under consideration for future career planning.
Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I don’t think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I won’t wait that long, I’ll be gone before then.
The most "senior" 456xxx 777 pilot has got 962 777 FO's ahead of him.
You do the math
Bye bye Dubai
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Why the obsession with upgrade? Is EK suddenly a great place to work from the left seat? Don't think so. Better finding a job you actually like, in a country you actually want to live in. Even if that means flying something more modest, but at least you aren't bitching and moaning all night long.
If seniority was not considered then how would they decide who to review for the forthcoming command review board? Just because someone is unfortunate to get bypassed, doesn't mean that seniority is not an initial consideration, when it comes to reviewing suitable candidates.
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I’ve had a mate hit me up regarding a variety of things, most which I can answer...the one thing I’m struggling with is the current education allowance for kids at primary and secondary school. Any numbers would be great.
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The thirty-somethings were happy to bypass the more senior FOs who were 30 or 31. Now that the age restriction has been reduced to 30, they call fowl that their upgrade is being delayed or in their words "bypassed". Seniority has always been a factor when it comes to the review board, and always will.
