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EK results out

Middle East Many expats still flying in Knoteetingham. Regional issues can be discussed here.

EK results out

Old 9th Nov 2016, 10:31
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: usa
Posts: 1,007
Results not a surprise, group number down -64%. CX was down -85%

The timing of the global pilot shortage is our only 'trump' card (embarrassed to be an American today btw).

Not saying we are immune from cuts but I know a lot of peeps hanging on by a thread who just can't get over that resignation line mostly because of kids situ.

Should a significant cut in package materialize - then it will be enough for many to head to Asia or home.

Don't mind being here - getting older in a hurry is one thing, getting older AND poorer in a hurry is another.

Last edited by fliion; 9th Nov 2016 at 11:06.
fliion is offline  
Old 9th Nov 2016, 10:31
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Escaped the sandpit 53 32′ 9.19″ N, 9 50′ 13.29″ E
Posts: 596
Originally Posted by littlejet View Post
qr and ey...same strategy same routes same location similar pricing...why people chose to fly them instead of EK is the answer IMO
I'd include also TK. They have a similar business model
ExDubai is offline  
Old 9th Nov 2016, 10:43
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: DXB & FL 410
Posts: 922
Fliion. Don't be embarrassed. A non politician is exactly what you good folk need. Stay with it.

EK are BA mid 80's. Chocked to death with middle management.
Craggenmore is offline  
Old 9th Nov 2016, 11:19
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: FL 350
Posts: 71
Narrow Body?

Repaint the 737's on the other side of the field makes the most sense.
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 11:36
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: london
Posts: 103
Originally Posted by TOGA! View Post
Narrow Body?

Repaint the 737's on the other side of the field makes the most sense.
I agree 100% merge the two.. Best option in my opinion giving most of the regional routes to FZ and make all cadets learn their trade there before going on the big boys..
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 11:46
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: free Europe
Posts: 90
Nice try to keep this under the radar while the world is looking at the Donald.

I feel sorry for all of you still there and the rest of the staff who can not leave. They treated you like sh*t when they were still making money. I am sure they will care even less for you when their house is on fire. And it will be from here on.

Their arrogance has kept them from facing reality not just on an operations level. For too long they have also ignored the saturation of the Middle East long haul market, which they successfully started. But it is undeniable that there is overcapacity between ME3, European and Asian longhaul. And the other operators have already introduced cost trimming to compete. Low cost long haul contracts at Lufthansa, 2 class at Qatar etc. Combining growth/market share and profitability at the same time will be very difficult.

Then there's the regional market where they again face increasing competition. That market has also lost its buying power due to the oil slump. Hurting tourism and Dubai economy severely. And there is dramatic writing on the wall: Saudi's defeat in their oil price strategy, their desperate drive to sell government assets and issue new bonds.

In the US the coalition against ME3 were only waiting for the election to pass by before they initiate round 2 of the fight against unfair competition. The landslide for a Republican President and Congress will fuel that protectionism. EK's financial reports will make it increasingly difficult to argue that theirs is a profitable business that can expand rapidly without subsidies.

In my personal opinion your rosters may improve but for the wrong reasons. The party is over. Having seen their poor management in the heyday I think all of you should be very concerned about their capabilities for managing a real crisis.

Building the world's biggest airport, expanding 380 fleet, w*nking about the millions of visitors who will come to Expo 2020 is Dubai World and Burj Khalifa all over again. Let's see who they bankrupt this time and how long before your shiny jets will be repainted in Abu Dhabi colours.
in freedom is offline  
Old 9th Nov 2016, 12:05
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 415
Originally Posted by Jetkopite View Post
in fact our marketing department is one of the strongest dept in the airline...
I agree with this part. If you give $3B play money any department will do well.

Originally Posted by Jetkopite View Post
but in years gone they spent millions on marketing and done very well,
Can you list their achievements, other than tongue in cheek ads, subscriptions with rating agencies, sports sponsorship and social media spending.

Didn't fill premium cabins or improve yields.
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 12:39
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Post-Pit and Lovin' It.
Posts: 857
Agreed. I would love to see a proper cost/benefit analysis of paying a million or whatever to a former tv sitcom actress to make fun of the competition.

Of course a company needs to market its brand but EK has gone lost their minds in the last few years.
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 12:46
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: noteetingham
Posts: 19
32 787s recently ordered by unidentified customer/s. Who knows?
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 12:51
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Behind you
Age: 73
Posts: 227
Originally Posted by Private Pike View Post
32 787s recently ordered by unidentified customer/s. Who knows?
Can't be EK... otherwise it'd been 100 787😂
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 12:59
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Dubai
Posts: 210
If you thought they were vindictive and spiteful the last few years of record profits and money rolling in hand over fist, wait until they come to grips with a 75% downturn and money too tight to mention. The true colors will be showing very soon and it won't be pleasant. It's all the fault of the Lazy Pilots. AAR will be in his element.
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 15:25
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Danger - Deep Excavation
Posts: 324
Where was 2.35 billion AED spent?

Maybe Mueller arrived just in time.

Help me understand because I'm not an accountant.

2.3 million extra passengers compared to last year same period up from 25.7 to 28 million.
But revenue basically stable. So tickets must be cheaper and/or commissions to travel agents or whoever sells the tickets has gone up.
Fuel down 10% on same period. A big saving.
Profit share down from 9 to 5 weeks. Surely a saving.

So how can Net profits *fall* by 75% to 786 million AED (28 AED profit per passenger).
Where has all that money been spent?

I make that 2.35 Billion AED gone compared to last year: 786 3
So where was that 2.35 Billion AED spent compared to the same time last year?
Obviously some on serving the extra passengers, some on capacity increases.
But I feel like I'm missing something obvious.

(And what was all that about cash reserves going down by 36%?
Is that investment in DWC, tractors or buses?)
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 15:41
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: UAE
Posts: 252
Missing millions

Debt probably !
Jack D is offline  
Old 9th Nov 2016, 15:53
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,497
Corruption!
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Old 9th Nov 2016, 23:25
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: A warm pub
Posts: 1,210
Originally Posted by fliion View Post
Results not a surprise, group number down -64%. CX was down -85%
CX hedged their fuel at a stupidly high price, costing billions. What's EK's excuse?
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Old 10th Nov 2016, 02:14
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: usa
Posts: 1,007
Lots (I mean none)...Hyperbole.....increased comp...three new WBs a month...premium yield...poor J product...

the ME3 are cannibalizing each other.

Perhaps a mgt retreat to somewhere close by quiet and serene to figure it out...maybe "The World" would do.
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Old 10th Nov 2016, 02:46
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 2,934
maybe the new quarterback CM will figure out the cost of pilot training and multiply that number with the attrition number
Do you have any idea of that cost? Probably not as high as many of us would like to think. Line training is cheap, only really the salary addition cost of a line training captain. What is sim for a type rating worth? Allowing for add ons maybe US$40K, this figure is an educated guess based on what sim programs around the world cost. EK have all in house with large economy of scale as an advantage.

So bring it up to US$50K for fun. If the pilot stays with the company only five years (bond?) then the cost of training them initially works out to US$830 per month. Hardly an awe inspiring figure.

I would be really interested if anyone has an even close to accurate figure for ground school and sim cost.
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 10th Nov 2016, 03:07
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 323
You are miles out Icarus. Many years ago, recruitment estimated the cost of replacing a Captain at around 2 million AED. That included the cost of recruiting a new joiner (FO), bringing in his family, training him, then eventually paying the costs of upgrading him to replace the experienced Captain that left.

That probably doesn't include the cost of educating the new guy's kids...given that the experienced Captain's kids were probably already through their education and no longer costing the company money. (In my case, I've claimed over 1.3million AED in education, but now I don't cost the company a dirham as my kids are over 19).

The surge in training has required us to outsource to places like the UK...can you imagine how much they're paying for that?!!!

Every time a trainee is sitting in a classroom and not out flying the line, it's a direct cost to the airline.

I have no idea what the actual cost is, but I'd say it's incredibly expensive.

I estimated recently that the cost to replace an experienced 15 year captain (3,000,000+AED nowadays) would pay for his higher salary (versus a first year Captain) for 16 years or so.

It's a no-brainer to keep your experienced staff, but that doesn't seem to fit into the equation at EK.
Kamelchaser is offline  
Old 10th Nov 2016, 03:50
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: overthere
Posts: 2,933
What Kamelchaser said. The more quals the fella leaving has the more it costs to replace him. For example, a TRE leaves (stop cheering), they need to train a tri to be a TRE. A LTC to be a TRI. A line Capt to be an LTC. An FO to be a CAPT and then travel the world shaking trees until they find, interview, test and recruit a new FO, and then train him.

Not cheap, nor quick. Each year they sit around and guess however many ungrateful lazy pilots will leave, and throw this number into a EGIT excel programme to work out how many newbies they need to handle growth and leavers. You would think they would have had enough practice to get it right by now, but alas no. Hence Crap rosters and shite leave. But at least they are consistent.
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Old 10th Nov 2016, 04:12
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 2,934
Quite possibly. I was confining my cost thoughts to a new joiner FO, as information would indicate once a pilot is upgraded their propensity to leave diminshes, even more so with TRI or TRE.

Every time a trainee is sitting in a classroom and not out flying the line, it's a direct cost to the airline
Please, really, you think I do not understand that. In the same way that when they are on line they are also a cost, n'est pas?

To make it simple, what does it cost to take a new joiner to CTL status?

As far as educating your children, that cost is a given for pilot A or pilot B who replaces him/her. I am talking about ADDITIONAL costs for a pilot leaving. Can you see the difference?

Edit to add: We are basically talking the difference in fixed costs and variable depending when a pilot leaves. Ignore salary and allowances because they are fixed. Again, say a one year FO leaves (no bond say) and another joins, the DIFFERENCE is the ground school and sim costs for the new joiner and any start up costs such as initial welcome pack stuff. The education does not come in as that is the same for both.
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