Stay away from Emirates. (EK)
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Apparently only big picture issues are
1) Airbus not building 200 x A380NEOs
2) US3 not allowing to dump capacity ,lower prices and 5th freedom flights
3) ULCCs like Norwegian and Scoot competing
1) Airbus not building 200 x A380NEOs
2) US3 not allowing to dump capacity ,lower prices and 5th freedom flights
3) ULCCs like Norwegian and Scoot competing
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It's hard to know where to begin. In some ways the issues within Emirates are symptomatic of the problems that beset Dubai. An economy bereft of cash and investment trying to prop up a property development splurge that can only have an unhappy ending. Has anyone taken a drive towards the outer reaches? Houses upon houses in various states of completion. It's like something out of Mad Max. IMHO they will never be sold and the whole ponzi scheme will come crashing down within 18months. Pretty much the same at EK. The airline has bitten off more than it can chew. Dwindling local demand from a region that has seen its core commodity halve in price, combined with a requirement to appease the local populace with jobs that many are unqualified for, with a management structure rewarded by a staggeringly short sighted outlook and now the squeeze is on. I can't see a way out. Oil will never top $60 (at that price all the U.S. shale comes back online) so the region is in for prolonged decline. Again just my opinion. Sad, unnecessary, but I'm pretty sure unavoidable. Sell your property while you can. Intrinsically, poured concrete in the desert is worth nothing. Get out while you can and cut your losses. At least the dollar is up. Remember this - the locals do not care one single iota for you. Never have never will.
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While I can appreciate that Continental-520 is trying to bring some balance to the discussion, unfortunately his comments are arguing from a completely false premise. EK is not going through a "phase", at least not in the sense that it's just one big cycle that will eventually swing back to the norm. There is no precedent in their history for what is happening: massive employee retention and recruitment problems. Suspected yield issues. Increased competition from the other ME carriers and the ULCC's mentioned. Global economy entering slow-to-no growth.
Beating the slaves harder just isn't going to work this time.
wizard1,
Funny you should reference Mad Max. I clearly remember driving through Business Bay many times during the construction boom, looking at all the dark, silent concrete shells of those shoddily-constructed high-rises. And thinking how it would make the perfect set for some dystopian nightmare film of the future. I have a feeling that one day, perhaps a decade or so from now, others will drive through the same area and find an eerily quiet, abandoned site with row upon row of hulking partially-completed towers of concrete. And wonder "wth were they thinking?!".
Beating the slaves harder just isn't going to work this time.
wizard1,
Funny you should reference Mad Max. I clearly remember driving through Business Bay many times during the construction boom, looking at all the dark, silent concrete shells of those shoddily-constructed high-rises. And thinking how it would make the perfect set for some dystopian nightmare film of the future. I have a feeling that one day, perhaps a decade or so from now, others will drive through the same area and find an eerily quiet, abandoned site with row upon row of hulking partially-completed towers of concrete. And wonder "wth were they thinking?!".
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Oh it's a 'phase' is it...? Approx 15 years and counting. One Hell of a phase...
If you look at the employee satisfaction of any airline, it is never at a constant. If EK employee satisfaction was always as low as it is now, they would not have been able to grow without reducing their minimum joining requirements many years ago.
nolimitholdem,
As you're eluding, the root cause of the problems at EK are the management's reaction to external factors. QR have competed since the late 1990s and EY since 2004. Prior to that (and still now) the competition has existed elsewhere (SQ, MH, BA, etc), so it was just further afield.
And if the GFC of 2008/2009 wasn't symbolic of a global economic slowdown that EK had to tackle like everyone else, then I don't know what is. So it isn't unprecedented - maybe just being dealt with by different people in the middle.
520.
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Decline only really started in 2008 when the fancy EGHQ building was finished and everyone moved there. Before 2008 it was pretty good! So I would say the last 8 years...definitely not the last 15 years.
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Continental-520,
As you state, employee satisfaction in the past was higher. And I would submit that the competition locally was much less in the past. These factors and the others mentioned have not moved in cycles, they have trended steadily to the negative for EK. Hence, I consider them "unprecedented" in that EK has not had to deal with them in such magnitude in the past. They most certainly have not gone through "phases" in the past where they - for example - struggled to attract experienced pilots. Until fairly recently they had their pick of the crop. Certainly, they have faced crises such as the 2008 GFC common to all carriers. But that's not really relevant.
I would also take issue with the statement that the root cause of EK's problems are their reactions to external factors. The majority of their current problems are self-inflicted, they've completely lost the plot on how to manage any company's biggest, most valuable resource: their people. The external factors are, as you note, common to all players.
Point is, the pendulum is not going to swing back magically as you seem hopeful it will. Radical changes would be necessary to effect that, and it's plainly obvious the will/competence/humility is not there to do so. It's a slow-motion train wreck.
But I do understand the need to try and stay positive and justify one's decisions. Not meant facetiously, one does what one has to put up with a situation.
As you state, employee satisfaction in the past was higher. And I would submit that the competition locally was much less in the past. These factors and the others mentioned have not moved in cycles, they have trended steadily to the negative for EK. Hence, I consider them "unprecedented" in that EK has not had to deal with them in such magnitude in the past. They most certainly have not gone through "phases" in the past where they - for example - struggled to attract experienced pilots. Until fairly recently they had their pick of the crop. Certainly, they have faced crises such as the 2008 GFC common to all carriers. But that's not really relevant.
I would also take issue with the statement that the root cause of EK's problems are their reactions to external factors. The majority of their current problems are self-inflicted, they've completely lost the plot on how to manage any company's biggest, most valuable resource: their people. The external factors are, as you note, common to all players.
Point is, the pendulum is not going to swing back magically as you seem hopeful it will. Radical changes would be necessary to effect that, and it's plainly obvious the will/competence/humility is not there to do so. It's a slow-motion train wreck.
But I do understand the need to try and stay positive and justify one's decisions. Not meant facetiously, one does what one has to put up with a situation.
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I disagree it's only been since 2008'ish. Yes, people were happier in 2008, but the rot had already set in from somewhat before the 'you're all lazy pilots' meeting in 2004.
Frog in the water principle....
Frog in the water principle....
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Nolimitholdem,
And therein lies the point. Change can be permanent or cyclic. If something changes to an unsustainable state, such as EK is changing now, then a case can be made that it is a cyclic change, or at least that further change to a contrary trend is inevitable, since it cannot continue in a downward trend indefinitely if it is to exist in the longer term.
Some may say that it has been in a downward trend for a very long time, which may well be true, but a cycle or phase can have a very long spanning crest and trough, so it comes down to whether you can be bothered waiting it out. You have been in this game long enough to know what I mean.
True. Workforce engagement is imperative. As I said in my original post though, it is possible to re-engage them as I have seen in two airlines over the last 15 years. I don't think EK will sink to the lows that some predict.
I'm not hopeful, as it doesn't make any difference to me - I don't work there. I just think that many guys may be likely to overreact or react emotionally to the recent change in policy and the current working environment. A management shake up would probably be sufficiently radical. Given how often airlines change management, it's more than likely in the next two years. Tim isn't getting any younger and the aftermath of an accident is often a catalyst in closet clean outs.
We lost a LOT of good quality guys here across the pond in 2013. And the airline deserved to lose them, just like EK deserves to lose those leaving now, but had they just stuck it out another 6-12 months, many would've been far better off than joining the bottom of the list somewhere else. Depends what your priorities are I guess, and why you came to the Middle East in the first place.
520.
These factors and the others mentioned have not moved in cycles, they have trended steadily to the negative for EK. Hence, I consider them "unprecedented" in that EK has not had to deal with them in such magnitude in the past.
Some may say that it has been in a downward trend for a very long time, which may well be true, but a cycle or phase can have a very long spanning crest and trough, so it comes down to whether you can be bothered waiting it out. You have been in this game long enough to know what I mean.
I would also take issue with the statement that the root cause of EK's problems are their reactions to external factors. The majority of their current problems are self-inflicted, they've completely lost the plot on how to manage any company's biggest, most valuable resource: their people. The external factors are, as you note, common to all players.
Point is, the pendulum is not going to swing back magically as you seem hopeful it will. Radical changes would be necessary to effect that, and it's plainly obvious the will/competence/humility is not there to do so. It's a slow-motion train wreck.
We lost a LOT of good quality guys here across the pond in 2013. And the airline deserved to lose them, just like EK deserves to lose those leaving now, but had they just stuck it out another 6-12 months, many would've been far better off than joining the bottom of the list somewhere else. Depends what your priorities are I guess, and why you came to the Middle East in the first place.
520.
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It is very difficult. Whole enterprise was built on how great STC is, even though every one knows it is the unlimited access to debt/cash made available by Dubai rulers so far enabled STC to play with it. Now they have to run the company like others.
How to put a positive spin without accepting there is a crisis. I doubt STC is capable of reading between lines and announce retirement.
BTW, STC still looking to buy 200 x A380NEOs.
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notapilot15,
Quite a few already have impacted me, and I don't think that future changes may not. In fact, we may get an influx of pilots as a result of what is going on at EK at the moment, and that will impact me, but the difference is I won't spit the dummy and throw the toys out of the cot just because the change isn't something beneficial to my own situation. This all boils down to what alternatives each of us have available.
520.
Folks are reacting to change after change after change. What makes you think next change will not impact you?
520.
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The move into EGHQ accelerated the decline, prior to that you could pop in and talk to your managers and for a short time after the move. Then the security desk went in and you were only allowed in to the 3rd Floor managers if you had an appointment.
Good luck getting one of those. What a great way to stop the complaints.
I rang 5 different manager and superintendent numbers last week during normal working hours to get some information. No one answered their phone and despite leaving messages, no one called back. Sums it up I think.
Good luck getting one of those. What a great way to stop the complaints.
I rang 5 different manager and superintendent numbers last week during normal working hours to get some information. No one answered their phone and despite leaving messages, no one called back. Sums it up I think.
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Old wisdom i remember from officers training:
Every soldier is entitled to an answer, especially to the one he does not like.
If you don't answer, you lose him and consequently the battle.
Every soldier is entitled to an answer, especially to the one he does not like.
If you don't answer, you lose him and consequently the battle.
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You've used the word 'training'. I strongly suspect none of them have had any positive training, not to mention the barest of qualifications for the position they're in.