Severe US Pilot Shortage! Once bitten, Twice shy! Are we going take the bate??
Thread Starter
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: All Over
Posts: 72
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Severe US Pilot Shortage! Once bitten, Twice shy! Are we going take the bait??
U.S. airlines are facing what threatens to be their most serious pilot shortage since the 1960s, with higher experience requirements for new hires about to take hold just as the industry braces for a wave of retirements.
Federal mandates taking effect next summer will require all newly hired pilots to have at least 1,500 hours of prior flight experience—six times the current minimum—raising the cost and time to train new fliers in an era when pay cuts and more-demanding schedules already have made the profession less attractive. Meanwhile, thousands of senior pilots at major airlines soon will start hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65.
A rule requiring new airline pilots to have at least 1,500 flying hours will postpone the day flight instructor John Adkins, above, can join a carrier.
Another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply, by giving pilots more daily rest time. This change is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot ranks by at least 5%. Adding to the problem is a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains.
"This is going to come to a crisis," said Bob Reding, recently retired executive vice president of operations at AMR Corp.'s AAMRQ +0.26% American Airlines and now a consultant to FlightSafety International Inc., an aviation training provider.
Added Kit Darby, a consultant on pilot-hiring trends: "We are about four years from a solution, but we are only about six months away from a problem."
Estimates differ on the problem's magnitude. Airlines for America, a trade group of the largest carriers that collectively employ 50,800 pilots now, cites a study by the University of North Dakota's aviation department that indicates major airlines will need to hire 60,000 pilots by 2025 to replace departures and cover expansion.
Mr. Darby's firm calculates that all U.S. airlines, including cargo, charter and regional carriers, together employ nearly 96,000 pilots, and will need to find more than 65,000 over the next eight years.
In the past eight years, not quite 36,000 pilots have passed the Federal Aviation Administration's highest test, the Air Transport Pilot exam, which all pilots would have to pass under the congressionally imposed rules.
For passengers, the biggest impact is expected to be at smaller, regional carriers. They have traditionally been a training ground feeding pilots to the bigger airlines, which are expected to step up their poaching.
"Absent a game-changing shift in the supply of" pilots, small to midsize communities "are in jeopardy of losing some, if not all, their scheduled flights," Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association, said in a July speech.
More than half of U.S. airline pilots are over 50, said Mr. Darby, the consultant, reflecting a bulge in new hires in the 1980s and scant hiring over the past decade.
In 2007, to bring the U.S. into alignment with some other countries, regulators extended the mandatory retirement age to 65 from 60. By some estimates, 80% of 60-year-old U.S. pilots now are staying on longer. But in December, the first of those who extended their careers will start turning 65.
Capt. John Silverman, a 64-year-old US Airways Group Inc. LCC +2.44% pilot, stuck around when the law changed but must retire in April. "I'm extremely healthy," he said. "I could do more time. But 65 is plenty."
The FAA's head of flight standards, John Allen, said at an industry conference this summer that the projected retirement numbers are "astounding and dramatic" and "we don't have a system to address this issue." A spokeswoman for the FAA said its official position is "to obtain data to determine long-term pilot staffing needs and solutions."
After a decade of consolidation and restructuring, some large carriers are planning to start hiring again. Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL +0.49% estimates it will need 3,500 new pilots over the next decade to maintain its ranks at 12,000, not including any growth. American Airlines recently said it plans to add 2,500 pilots over the next five years. United Continental Holdings Inc. UAL +0.86% has begun taking applications for a few positions in its Continental subsidiary.
Dave Barger, chief executive of JetBlue Airways Corp., JBLU +0.34% said in an October speech that the industry is "facing an exodus of talent in the next few years" and could "wake up one day and find we have no one to operate or maintain those planes."
There are limits to the ability of airlines, especially the regional carriers, to attract more pilots by raising wages. While the industry's health has improved in recent years, many carriers still operate on thin profit margins, with the airlines sandwiched between rising costs for fuel and unsteady demand from price-sensitive consumers.
Dan Garton, chief executive of AMR's regional American Eagle unit, said the issue "is going to become much more visible when regionals have to decrease their flying" for lack of pilots, and some smaller cities lose air service.
Mr. Garton said he has beaten the drum about the problem on Capitol Hill and at the FAA without success. The FAA said it has been encouraging discussions among industry officials to come up with solutions.
Some regulators and industry experts worry about the safety implications of having a smaller pool of applicants at a time when demand for pilots is rising. They fret that some smaller airlines could be forced to lower internal criteria and hire applicants with questionable skills or spotty training records.
"It certainly will result in challenges to maintain quality," said John Marshall, an independent aviation-safety consultant who spent 26 years in the Air Force before overseeing Delta's safety. "Regional carriers will be creative and have to take shortcuts" to fill their cockpits, he said.
Ahead of the new 1,500-hour rule, the Regional Airline Association has been testing its first officers regularly in preparation for meeting the standards, said Scott Foose, the trade group's vice president of operations and safety. "Working collaboratively with the FAA, hundreds of first officers have already received their new certificates and the rest are on track to obtain theirs," Mr. Foose said.
The military hasn't been a major source of commercial pilots for years, and the supply of new pilots has been dwindling. Among the reasons is that would-be fliers face expensive training with no guarantee of being hired by an airline once they complete it.
Third Coast Aviation, a flight school in Kalamazoo, Mich., said business is down 30% to 40% over the past five years. At California Flight Academy in El Cajon, Calif., the rolls are full, but almost entirely with foreign students who will soon return to their home countries. "We don't have locals learning to fly anymore," said Ash Dakwar, the academy's operations chief.
While no one tracks overall attendance at the nation's 3,400 flight schools, FAA data show annual private and commercial pilot certificates—both required to become an airline pilot—are down 41% and 30%, respectively, in the past decade. The National Association of Flight Instructors, in a research paper published this year, said that "there is no feasible way…to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers."
Congress's 2010 vote to require 1,500 hours of experience in August 2013 came in the wake of several regional-airline accidents, although none had been due to pilots having fewer than 1,500 hours.
Regional carriers now are racing to make sure their pilots have 1,500 hours by next summer, while also trying to bolster their ranks. But prospects with close to the required number of hours aren't numerous. "These people just don't exist," said Mr. Garton of American Eagle.
The FAA is trying to soften the blow. It has proposed a rule that would lower the requirement to 750 hours for military aviators and 1,000 hours for graduates of four-year aviation universities. But the exemption, if it goes through, may come too late, and it isn't expected to help most aviators in training anyway, because they come from other types of flight schools.
For them, the challenge of meeting the new requirements is uncharted and costly. "I'm stuck being a flight instructor for another year," said John Adkins, a 27-year-old pilot at California Flight Academy. He achieved the current minimum for being a co-pilot, but the new rule has delayed his dream to join an airline. "You don't make a lot of money as an instructor," he said.
The 1,500-hour mandate "has only discouraged a future generation of prospective pilots to pursue this career," said Mr. Cohen, from the regional airline group. Those who persevere "will try to get the 1,500 hours the fastest and cheapest way possible," he said. "Flying around in empty airspace or towing banners doesn't give you the training you need to fly a complex airplane."
The mandate applies to regularly scheduled passenger and cargo airlines flying jets and larger turboprops. Cargo airlines could also end up struggling to recruit sufficient pilots. Smaller planes, on-demand charters and business jets aren't covered by the new requirements.
The last big pilot shortage, in the 1960s, occurred because "everybody who was of a trainable age was in Vietnam," said Randy Babbitt, a former FAA administrator who was hired as a pilot in that era. Meanwhile, airlines were expanding as jets shortened trips and boosted traffic. Once the military pilots finished their tours, many joined airlines and the shortage problem receded.
A version of this article appeared November 12, 2012, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Airlines Face Acute Shortage Of Pilots.
Federal mandates taking effect next summer will require all newly hired pilots to have at least 1,500 hours of prior flight experience—six times the current minimum—raising the cost and time to train new fliers in an era when pay cuts and more-demanding schedules already have made the profession less attractive. Meanwhile, thousands of senior pilots at major airlines soon will start hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65.
A rule requiring new airline pilots to have at least 1,500 flying hours will postpone the day flight instructor John Adkins, above, can join a carrier.
Another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply, by giving pilots more daily rest time. This change is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot ranks by at least 5%. Adding to the problem is a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains.
"This is going to come to a crisis," said Bob Reding, recently retired executive vice president of operations at AMR Corp.'s AAMRQ +0.26% American Airlines and now a consultant to FlightSafety International Inc., an aviation training provider.
Added Kit Darby, a consultant on pilot-hiring trends: "We are about four years from a solution, but we are only about six months away from a problem."
Estimates differ on the problem's magnitude. Airlines for America, a trade group of the largest carriers that collectively employ 50,800 pilots now, cites a study by the University of North Dakota's aviation department that indicates major airlines will need to hire 60,000 pilots by 2025 to replace departures and cover expansion.
Mr. Darby's firm calculates that all U.S. airlines, including cargo, charter and regional carriers, together employ nearly 96,000 pilots, and will need to find more than 65,000 over the next eight years.
In the past eight years, not quite 36,000 pilots have passed the Federal Aviation Administration's highest test, the Air Transport Pilot exam, which all pilots would have to pass under the congressionally imposed rules.
For passengers, the biggest impact is expected to be at smaller, regional carriers. They have traditionally been a training ground feeding pilots to the bigger airlines, which are expected to step up their poaching.
"Absent a game-changing shift in the supply of" pilots, small to midsize communities "are in jeopardy of losing some, if not all, their scheduled flights," Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association, said in a July speech.
More than half of U.S. airline pilots are over 50, said Mr. Darby, the consultant, reflecting a bulge in new hires in the 1980s and scant hiring over the past decade.
In 2007, to bring the U.S. into alignment with some other countries, regulators extended the mandatory retirement age to 65 from 60. By some estimates, 80% of 60-year-old U.S. pilots now are staying on longer. But in December, the first of those who extended their careers will start turning 65.
Capt. John Silverman, a 64-year-old US Airways Group Inc. LCC +2.44% pilot, stuck around when the law changed but must retire in April. "I'm extremely healthy," he said. "I could do more time. But 65 is plenty."
The FAA's head of flight standards, John Allen, said at an industry conference this summer that the projected retirement numbers are "astounding and dramatic" and "we don't have a system to address this issue." A spokeswoman for the FAA said its official position is "to obtain data to determine long-term pilot staffing needs and solutions."
After a decade of consolidation and restructuring, some large carriers are planning to start hiring again. Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL +0.49% estimates it will need 3,500 new pilots over the next decade to maintain its ranks at 12,000, not including any growth. American Airlines recently said it plans to add 2,500 pilots over the next five years. United Continental Holdings Inc. UAL +0.86% has begun taking applications for a few positions in its Continental subsidiary.
Dave Barger, chief executive of JetBlue Airways Corp., JBLU +0.34% said in an October speech that the industry is "facing an exodus of talent in the next few years" and could "wake up one day and find we have no one to operate or maintain those planes."
There are limits to the ability of airlines, especially the regional carriers, to attract more pilots by raising wages. While the industry's health has improved in recent years, many carriers still operate on thin profit margins, with the airlines sandwiched between rising costs for fuel and unsteady demand from price-sensitive consumers.
Dan Garton, chief executive of AMR's regional American Eagle unit, said the issue "is going to become much more visible when regionals have to decrease their flying" for lack of pilots, and some smaller cities lose air service.
Mr. Garton said he has beaten the drum about the problem on Capitol Hill and at the FAA without success. The FAA said it has been encouraging discussions among industry officials to come up with solutions.
Some regulators and industry experts worry about the safety implications of having a smaller pool of applicants at a time when demand for pilots is rising. They fret that some smaller airlines could be forced to lower internal criteria and hire applicants with questionable skills or spotty training records.
"It certainly will result in challenges to maintain quality," said John Marshall, an independent aviation-safety consultant who spent 26 years in the Air Force before overseeing Delta's safety. "Regional carriers will be creative and have to take shortcuts" to fill their cockpits, he said.
Ahead of the new 1,500-hour rule, the Regional Airline Association has been testing its first officers regularly in preparation for meeting the standards, said Scott Foose, the trade group's vice president of operations and safety. "Working collaboratively with the FAA, hundreds of first officers have already received their new certificates and the rest are on track to obtain theirs," Mr. Foose said.
The military hasn't been a major source of commercial pilots for years, and the supply of new pilots has been dwindling. Among the reasons is that would-be fliers face expensive training with no guarantee of being hired by an airline once they complete it.
Third Coast Aviation, a flight school in Kalamazoo, Mich., said business is down 30% to 40% over the past five years. At California Flight Academy in El Cajon, Calif., the rolls are full, but almost entirely with foreign students who will soon return to their home countries. "We don't have locals learning to fly anymore," said Ash Dakwar, the academy's operations chief.
While no one tracks overall attendance at the nation's 3,400 flight schools, FAA data show annual private and commercial pilot certificates—both required to become an airline pilot—are down 41% and 30%, respectively, in the past decade. The National Association of Flight Instructors, in a research paper published this year, said that "there is no feasible way…to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers."
Congress's 2010 vote to require 1,500 hours of experience in August 2013 came in the wake of several regional-airline accidents, although none had been due to pilots having fewer than 1,500 hours.
Regional carriers now are racing to make sure their pilots have 1,500 hours by next summer, while also trying to bolster their ranks. But prospects with close to the required number of hours aren't numerous. "These people just don't exist," said Mr. Garton of American Eagle.
The FAA is trying to soften the blow. It has proposed a rule that would lower the requirement to 750 hours for military aviators and 1,000 hours for graduates of four-year aviation universities. But the exemption, if it goes through, may come too late, and it isn't expected to help most aviators in training anyway, because they come from other types of flight schools.
For them, the challenge of meeting the new requirements is uncharted and costly. "I'm stuck being a flight instructor for another year," said John Adkins, a 27-year-old pilot at California Flight Academy. He achieved the current minimum for being a co-pilot, but the new rule has delayed his dream to join an airline. "You don't make a lot of money as an instructor," he said.
The 1,500-hour mandate "has only discouraged a future generation of prospective pilots to pursue this career," said Mr. Cohen, from the regional airline group. Those who persevere "will try to get the 1,500 hours the fastest and cheapest way possible," he said. "Flying around in empty airspace or towing banners doesn't give you the training you need to fly a complex airplane."
The mandate applies to regularly scheduled passenger and cargo airlines flying jets and larger turboprops. Cargo airlines could also end up struggling to recruit sufficient pilots. Smaller planes, on-demand charters and business jets aren't covered by the new requirements.
The last big pilot shortage, in the 1960s, occurred because "everybody who was of a trainable age was in Vietnam," said Randy Babbitt, a former FAA administrator who was hired as a pilot in that era. Meanwhile, airlines were expanding as jets shortened trips and boosted traffic. Once the military pilots finished their tours, many joined airlines and the shortage problem receded.
A version of this article appeared November 12, 2012, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Airlines Face Acute Shortage Of Pilots.
Last edited by BlueSkyLife; 13th Nov 2012 at 18:39.
Join Date: May 2005
Location: middle of nowhere
Posts: 312
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Bait? Yes, by the greedy.
The only shortage is pilots wanting to take up jobs for the T&Cs proposed today.
And that's a good thing!
Finally the guys start to realise that state sanctioned slavery might have been abolished, but self inflicted one is exactly that: Self inflicted and no one cares.
As long as slicing burgers at MacDo's for 40 years gets you more in your provident fund than working for the kind of MOL or other slugs, such headlines make me proud.
The only shortage is pilots wanting to take up jobs for the T&Cs proposed today.
And that's a good thing!
Finally the guys start to realise that state sanctioned slavery might have been abolished, but self inflicted one is exactly that: Self inflicted and no one cares.
As long as slicing burgers at MacDo's for 40 years gets you more in your provident fund than working for the kind of MOL or other slugs, such headlines make me proud.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,482
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Classic imbalance between costs and revenues. I trained in the States several years ago and there are plenty of Americans who want to fly - plenty of flight schools and aviation colleges. Challenge is that the expense of funding ratings is far too high compared with the initial salaries at the US regionals needed to pay off said ratings. Plus, constant fear of layoffs. Who wants $150K of debt and a $25K yearly salary for years. Not worth it for many I have been told.
From a Middle East perspective, makes you wonder how many EK, QR and other pilots in the region are willing to give up their shiney widebodies for an FO seat on a 737 or DC9 and wallow for years and years at the bottom of a slow-moving seniority list? I read that the upgrade time at Southwest Airlines is projected to be near 20 years after the AirTran merger. Friend told me about someone he knows who has flown the old DC9 as an FO at Delta/Northwest for the last 5 years with little progression (although his flying skills have improved with that analog flying). You can also thank the Age 65 rulings in the states for stunting career progression.
Who would leave EK for that type of slow career progression?
Certainly not as appealing as it used to be... 
From a Middle East perspective, makes you wonder how many EK, QR and other pilots in the region are willing to give up their shiney widebodies for an FO seat on a 737 or DC9 and wallow for years and years at the bottom of a slow-moving seniority list? I read that the upgrade time at Southwest Airlines is projected to be near 20 years after the AirTran merger. Friend told me about someone he knows who has flown the old DC9 as an FO at Delta/Northwest for the last 5 years with little progression (although his flying skills have improved with that analog flying). You can also thank the Age 65 rulings in the states for stunting career progression.
Who would leave EK for that type of slow career progression?
Certainly not as appealing as it used to be...
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: usa
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Delta
11,822
Total
11,822
Active
0
Furlough
Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 50
2014 - 101
2015 - 158
2016 - 208
2017 - 260
2018 - 386
2019 - 464
2020 - 528
2021 - 710
2022 - 756
2023 - 693
2024 - 665
2025 - 532
2026 - 367
2027 - 242
2028 - 179
2029 - 149
2030 - 115
2031 - 63
2032 - 22
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24
American
10,734
Total
8,481
Active
1,685
Furlough
Not hiring. 1,685 furloughed pilots, of which 650 have yet to be offered recall. The rest have deferred recall.
Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437
United
12,505
Total
10,968
Active
1,537
Furlough
Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 32
2013 - 399
2014 - 419
2015 - 382
2016 - 371
2017 - 431
2018 - 413
2019 - 424
2020 - 427
2021 - 509
2022 - 470
2023 - 552
2024 - 491
2025 - 600
2026 - 652
2027 - 632
2028 - 736
2029 - 675
2030 - 653
2031 - 649
US Airways
5,109
Total
5,065
Active
44
Furlough
Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 184
2014 - 243
2015 - 227
2016 - 269
2017 - 295
2018 - 308
2019 - 329
2020 - 306
2021 - 312
2022 - 263
2023 - 299
2024 - 239
2025 - 229
11,822
Total
11,822
Active
0
Furlough
Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 50
2014 - 101
2015 - 158
2016 - 208
2017 - 260
2018 - 386
2019 - 464
2020 - 528
2021 - 710
2022 - 756
2023 - 693
2024 - 665
2025 - 532
2026 - 367
2027 - 242
2028 - 179
2029 - 149
2030 - 115
2031 - 63
2032 - 22
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24
American
10,734
Total
8,481
Active
1,685
Furlough
Not hiring. 1,685 furloughed pilots, of which 650 have yet to be offered recall. The rest have deferred recall.
Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437
United
12,505
Total
10,968
Active
1,537
Furlough
Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 32
2013 - 399
2014 - 419
2015 - 382
2016 - 371
2017 - 431
2018 - 413
2019 - 424
2020 - 427
2021 - 509
2022 - 470
2023 - 552
2024 - 491
2025 - 600
2026 - 652
2027 - 632
2028 - 736
2029 - 675
2030 - 653
2031 - 649
US Airways
5,109
Total
5,065
Active
44
Furlough
Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 184
2014 - 243
2015 - 227
2016 - 269
2017 - 295
2018 - 308
2019 - 329
2020 - 306
2021 - 312
2022 - 263
2023 - 299
2024 - 239
2025 - 229
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 189
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Iver is correct about SWA being 20 years to upgrade. Not only that but we are currently over staffed and the company is granting LOA. In our SWA thread here on pprune some SWA FO's were planning on applying TO EK. I was tempted a year and a half ago but decided wait and see how things would work out, not impressed with the progress.
Last edited by FLYMSY; 13th Nov 2012 at 22:33.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,482
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There are plenty of regional pilots in the States who could fill empty legacy jobs (i.e., Delta, Southwest, Fedex and UAL). But not many people willing to earn $28K at a regional job. The regionals in the States are going to have a difficult time filling their empty seats because few people want to add $150K in debt getting to the magical 1500 hour requirement to sit as an FO in a CRJ or Dash 8. The US regionals are gonna get screwed.
The US regionals are gonna get screwed.
If they can't get sufficient pilots because they don't pay enough- MAYBE they might consider paying enough!!
Guest
Posts: n/a
Wizofoz
Indeed.
My guess is that consequently, they will lose their contracts, and gradually, one-by-one, cease to exist.
It was never a sustainable business model, but will, by its own implosion, solve the 'shortage'.
This shortage has been dwelled upon for decades. It just won't happen. There are several thousand furloughed pilots from us Majors. There is a far higher number of qualified guys, instructors, etc, all looking to move on.
I reckon that if you're in the left seat at a regional, or even senior right seat, you're well placed to take advantage of the retirement wave. That's what it is. It isn't a shortage.
For now, there are/will be a few thousand laid-off legacy pilots looking for work, so one can ignore how the first few years of RA65 kicking in.
My guess is that consequently, they will lose their contracts, and gradually, one-by-one, cease to exist.
It was never a sustainable business model, but will, by its own implosion, solve the 'shortage'.
This shortage has been dwelled upon for decades. It just won't happen. There are several thousand furloughed pilots from us Majors. There is a far higher number of qualified guys, instructors, etc, all looking to move on.
I reckon that if you're in the left seat at a regional, or even senior right seat, you're well placed to take advantage of the retirement wave. That's what it is. It isn't a shortage.
For now, there are/will be a few thousand laid-off legacy pilots looking for work, so one can ignore how the first few years of RA65 kicking in.
Last edited by ETOPS240; 14th Nov 2012 at 03:57.
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Tamworth, UK / Nairobi, Kenya
Posts: 614
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
lower costs due to low wages? I think not.
If you take each crew member's salary, divide by the number of flight legs flown each year, you find that it's usually in the realm of NOTHING per flight.
Here's an example...
Let's say one is a very highly paid training captain for the highest paying airline, and has a salary of 250,000 per year.
That captain flies 2 legs a day (intercontinental), 6 days a week, 3 weeks a months, 10 months a year (maybe more, but for now...), that's 360 legs a year.
250,000 divided by 360 legs is $694 per leg. With 300 passengers, that's $2.31 per passenger per leg.
The flight cost that passenger at least $600, so 2.31 is 0.3% of the cost of the ticket. Sure, there are 2 legs, so it's 0.6% for the captain. And there are more crew members... the co-pilot, stewards (plus ground support, but the numbers for ground support are harder to demonstrate here, but you'll get the point), so if the co-pilot makes 200,000 10 cabin crew each make 30,000, that's an additional 500,000, or another 1.2% of the cost of the ticket...
so the total for the salaries is a whopping 1.8% of the cost of the ticket.
reducing salaries does not affect profits much at all... it's a ploy by the airlines...
The real cost of flying is not even the fuel... (I can do the maths for you on this also, if needed), it's the cost of acquisition / use of the aeroplane itself.
The aeroplane cost is usually about 60-70% of the cost of a flight.
The reason a 'low cost' airline can charge so much less is because they are using aeroplanes that are 5-10 years older than other airlines, which lowers the cost significantly. Just like buying a used car instead of a new car...
If you take each crew member's salary, divide by the number of flight legs flown each year, you find that it's usually in the realm of NOTHING per flight.
Here's an example...
Let's say one is a very highly paid training captain for the highest paying airline, and has a salary of 250,000 per year.
That captain flies 2 legs a day (intercontinental), 6 days a week, 3 weeks a months, 10 months a year (maybe more, but for now...), that's 360 legs a year.
250,000 divided by 360 legs is $694 per leg. With 300 passengers, that's $2.31 per passenger per leg.
The flight cost that passenger at least $600, so 2.31 is 0.3% of the cost of the ticket. Sure, there are 2 legs, so it's 0.6% for the captain. And there are more crew members... the co-pilot, stewards (plus ground support, but the numbers for ground support are harder to demonstrate here, but you'll get the point), so if the co-pilot makes 200,000 10 cabin crew each make 30,000, that's an additional 500,000, or another 1.2% of the cost of the ticket...
so the total for the salaries is a whopping 1.8% of the cost of the ticket.
reducing salaries does not affect profits much at all... it's a ploy by the airlines...
The real cost of flying is not even the fuel... (I can do the maths for you on this also, if needed), it's the cost of acquisition / use of the aeroplane itself.
The aeroplane cost is usually about 60-70% of the cost of a flight.
The reason a 'low cost' airline can charge so much less is because they are using aeroplanes that are 5-10 years older than other airlines, which lowers the cost significantly. Just like buying a used car instead of a new car...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,482
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The point is that if you are American and you fly for EK, QR, FlyDubai and others in the region, returning to the States has become less appealing due to the incredibly slow career progression for those at the bottom of their seniority lists due to Age 65 rule and recent/proposed mergers that will reduce pilot opportunities. The only exception might be those pilots who were furloughed, fled to the ME, and bypassed recall but still hold decent seniority at a major.
So, probably many Americans flying in the ME at least partially interested in this thread. How many would leave a seat on an EK 777 or A380 for a bottom-of-list seat at JetBlue or USAirways with little advancement? Gotta weigh the pros and cons.
So, probably many Americans flying in the ME at least partially interested in this thread. How many would leave a seat on an EK 777 or A380 for a bottom-of-list seat at JetBlue or USAirways with little advancement? Gotta weigh the pros and cons.
Last edited by Iver; 14th Nov 2012 at 12:28.
Guest
Posts: n/a
I tend to disagree about the career progression in the next few years.
I'd say that a guy either returning to the US or getting hired over there will be a left seat narrowbody captain within 6-8 years due to the massive retirements of the large US carriers there. As I read it, just to maintain zero growth, the majors over there will have to hire 25-40 per month each... for no growth.
Since the economy over there seems to be on the mend and several of the carriers recently reported some pretty impressive profits a few weeks ago, that would logically mean growth and even more hiring in addition to replacing retirements... Of course when did logic ever come into the airline biz.
Just my two dirhams
Kap
I'd say that a guy either returning to the US or getting hired over there will be a left seat narrowbody captain within 6-8 years due to the massive retirements of the large US carriers there. As I read it, just to maintain zero growth, the majors over there will have to hire 25-40 per month each... for no growth.
Since the economy over there seems to be on the mend and several of the carriers recently reported some pretty impressive profits a few weeks ago, that would logically mean growth and even more hiring in addition to replacing retirements... Of course when did logic ever come into the airline biz.
Just my two dirhams
Kap
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: italy
Age: 58
Posts: 8
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
i think some calculations are wrong
2 legs intercontinental a day???
360 legs (intercontinental ) a year???
that could means 360 x 6/8 hours a leg =2880/2160 a year
please guys ....!!!
tipical costs of all employees are from 8 to 12 % for airlines
and pilot have the higher salary
planes are not allways full and pilots flying no more than 900 hours a year(too much anyway)
that doesn't mean they coudn't rise salary of the pilot to be more actractive
2 legs intercontinental a day???
360 legs (intercontinental ) a year???
that could means 360 x 6/8 hours a leg =2880/2160 a year
please guys ....!!!
tipical costs of all employees are from 8 to 12 % for airlines
and pilot have the higher salary
planes are not allways full and pilots flying no more than 900 hours a year(too much anyway)
that doesn't mean they coudn't rise salary of the pilot to be more actractive