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Fly Aiprt 18th Aug 2019 18:25


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 10548412)
the one bargaining chip that we have left that is credible is to simply walk away £35 odd billions still in our pockets. It may hurt us I agree, but sure as the day is long, it will hurt them just as much, not just in losing markets in the short term, but the gaping big £35 billion or whatever gap in their budget will need to be filled, and that will have repercussions in EU Countries.



So in your opinion, the main reason for success after brexit, is you will leave with EU's money in your pocket^^!
Supposing you can get away with it, whose pocket are you gonna get your subsidies from, once the money is spent ?

Are there any serious studies as to what assets the UK might count on for its prosperity once it's on its own ?


True no one has left before, but there are plenty of countries out there that do well not being in the EU and trade in and out the EU.
Maybe the way to succes is not announcing you'll not honour your commitments...


CEJM 18th Aug 2019 18:48

Fly Aiprt, Nutloose also seems to forget that the UK will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU at a later date. Withholding £35b will ensure that those will not start of on friendly terms.

At least every British citizen will get an unicorn out of it. Just fencing of my land to keep our quartet in.

ORAC 18th Aug 2019 19:03


Supposing you can get away with it, whose pocket are you gonna get your subsidies from, once the money is spent?

Are there any serious studies as to what assets the UK might count on for its prosperity once it's on its own ?
Hmmm -Our own? The UK pays a net amount of above £15B into the EU each year. The assets we we might count in are those that generate the above surplus.

Since the EU currently has a very large trade surplus in trade with the UK, which it might lose if the UK was locked out of the EU market and was forced to do trades with out providers; excluding internal political reasons, it makes sense for the EU to do a free trade deal with the UK once it has left.

It it also makes sense politically not to drive the nearest and largest market elsewhere. To quote from an article last month from Brussels.....

“The EU is working on a strategy to avoid a ‘Brexit cold war’ amid fears that relations between Brussels and London could break down completely after a no-deal Brexit..... EU officials hope that in such a scenario trade talks could act as a bridge to avoid permanently scarring relations.....

“We need a bridge. We need to avoid both sides hunkering down in their bunkers,” one EU diplomat said”......


Greek God 18th Aug 2019 19:13

Quite apart from the agree or disagree argument I have trawled through the umpteen pages of this and still have one simple question regarding all this:
How is it possible to block a no-deal exit without an agreement? (Other than a complete retraction)
In my simple world it appears that the default position is the said no deal - even a time extension only prolongs the problem. How even is Parliament able to block a no deal? Is Anything other than an agreement nothing but delaying tactics?
I just don't get it ???

Fly Aiprt 18th Aug 2019 19:18


Originally Posted by CEJM (Post 10548573)
Fly Aiprt, Nutloose also seems to forget that the UK will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU at a later date. Withholding £35b will ensure that those will not start of on friendly terms.

Those "no-deal-Brexiteers" can be so forgetful...;-)

Fly Aiprt 18th Aug 2019 19:35


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10548579)
Hmmm -Our own? The UK pays a net amount of above £15B into the EU each year. The assets we we might count in are those that generate the above surplus.



And those are...?
You seem to forget (ah, so forgetful^^!), that those billions are paid back from the EU to sustain your economy.
Do you realize that once you're out, no more subsidies ? Ah ! Why is the EU so hostile^^?


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10548579)
Since the EU currently has a very large trade surplus in trade with the UK, which it might lose if the UK was locked out of the EU market and was forced to do trades with out providers; excluding internal political reasons, it makes sense for the EU to do a free trade deal with the UK once it has left.

Not quite sure to see how imports from the EU will help your economy... Care to explain ?

Now about a free trade with a country that ran away with tens of billions, doesn't honour its word, and tries to obtain a free lunch, well...;-)

ORAC 18th Aug 2019 19:44


You seem to forget (ah, so forgetful^^!), that those billions are paid back from the EU to sustain your economy.
I said net, that’s after the repayments from the EU. They also recalculated the payments for 2019 - and those for the UK rose by another £2.6B a year.

Thats before the £1T+ bill they propose adding for the City financial market of course.

It’s called killing the goose that kills the golden egg.....


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....297229e324.png


ORAC 18th Aug 2019 19:58


Not quite sure to see how imports from the EU will help your economy... Care to explain?
The point is that the rest of the EU enjoys that surplus because the UK is inside the EU tariff wall and they have preferential access.

Now, the UK will probably still need those imports, but rather than the other EU nations enjoying a a massive tariff advantage, they’ll be competing against those from other nations with far lower cost bases - such as NZ and Mercosur in beef/lamb, US, Canada in wheat and other grains and fruits, many nations in wines and cheeses etc etc.

The producers affected will primarily be those within the EU.

Fly Aiprt 18th Aug 2019 20:23


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10548610)
I said net, that’s after the repayments from the EU. They also recalculated the payments for 2019 - and those for the UK rose by another £2.6B a year.



Your numbers are for the public sector, as indicated.
More info at one of the sources for your document :
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-m...ee-55-million/

Being in the EU costs money but does it also create trade, jobs and investment that are worth more?
We can be pretty sure about how much cash we put in, but it’s far harder to be sure about how much, if anything, comes back in economic benefits.

Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10548610)
It’s called killing the goose that kills the golden egg.....

Woah, woah ORAC ! That's scaremongering^^!
Of course you'll still have to import food, parmaceutical products, toilet paper.
So we'll continue with your golden egg of 6% of the main EU countries' GDP. Only it'll cost you more because of customs dues.

Now please do refrain from telling us how the EU will suffer from your departure.
What would be interesting is, what are your economical assets, what makes some Brexiteers here so sure that you'll succeed because of being out of the EU more than when you were part of it : car industry, aeronautics, agriculture, fisheries ?
What will change on the 1st of November and after ?

Please, no wishful vague words, rather hard facts, numbers, opinions from specialists in your country, not from the EU your are intent on leaving.

ORAC 18th Aug 2019 20:30


Only it'll cost you more because of customs dues.
UK import tariffs go to the UK government......

Fly Aiprt 18th Aug 2019 20:35


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10548618)
The producers affected will primarily be those within the EU.

Still this preoccupation about what will happen to the EU members...
What will happen to you ?
Stop referring to the EU, you are asking to leave, remember^^!

Never had a teenager at home ?
"Nah nah nah, I'm leaving. You'll see when I'm gone, you'll miss me nah nah nah !"


ORAC 18th Aug 2019 20:40

There will be an impact. But, at the end of the day, we are leaving a trade bloc. There does seem, as in your posts, to be a major overreaction both to that the implications, and consequences, of that fact.

Its neither the end end of the world, nor of the relationship of the UK with the rest of Europe.

Blossy 18th Aug 2019 21:50

Empires fail because people resist the dilution of their cultures.
It was true of the Romans and the British among the others.

They are absorbed into larger entities, which have no true identity.
Ignore history at your peril.
'The Brotherhood of Man' sounds impressive - until you try to put it into practise.

NoelEvans 18th Aug 2019 22:05


Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt (Post 10548648)
...
Never had a teenager at home ?
"Nah nah nah, I'm leaving. You'll see when I'm gone, you'll miss me nah nah nah !"

Yes, but the teenager was never a net contributor to the household finances. I think that you will find that most households experience the exact opposite where the teenagers (and older) often don't want to leave because they are doing quite well out of the household circumstances. (I'm sure that there are those who will shout 'unfair' if anyone tried to point that finger at any EU member states!!)

What is it with you that you 'care' so much to post as often as you do? Surely in the heart of EUland things are so good that what the silly Brits decide to do won't matter to you? So why bother so much with them?

racedo 18th Aug 2019 22:35


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10548618)
The point is that the rest of the EU enjoys that surplus because the UK is inside the EU tariff wall and they have preferential access.

Now, the UK will probably still need those imports, but rather than the other EU nations enjoying a a massive tariff advantage, they’ll be competing against those from other nations with far lower cost bases - such as NZ and Mercosur in beef/lamb, US, Canada in wheat and other grains and fruits, many nations in wines and cheeses etc etc.

The producers affected will primarily be those within the EU.

UK Statistics - AHDB Beef & Lamb


Course when you talk about Lamb and Beef trade you see that UK exports more Lamb than it imports. 81% of its imports come from NZ / Oz but 95% of its exports go to EU. So where is the 79,000 tonnes of Lamb that is currently exported by UK to EU going to go ? Lamb farmers would be bust very quickly.

Beef UK imports way more than it exports but course it could use Brazilian beef, EU would take up some of the slack of EU beef previously exported but EU would be down but it would just have a beef mountain to cover cost. Course Brazil etc may decide they cannot supply that business. So what then ?



NutLoose 18th Aug 2019 22:46


Interesting to learn there are those on here so dogmatic about a "no deal " exit, who, far from unsurprisingly, indicate they are secure from any detrimental effects on their life that will only affect lesser mortals.
[img]images/statusicon/user_offline.gif[/img] [img]images/buttons/report.gif[/img]


Far from it, I just believe wth all my heart the UK will prosper freed from the shackles of the EU. I am in no doubt we will be tied to the EU for many a year to come and also the certain EU regulations whether we want to or not, simply because in trading with the EU even in a free market, our goods will still need to adhere to their standards.
I agree a soft Brexit would be the ideal solution, but Mays plan wasn't an exit plan, it was a glorified serfdom with no way out from it.
Somewhere there must be a solution that is acceptable to both sides and I firmly believe it will eventually be reached, but our so called elected MP's have made such a hash of it, and worse than that betrayed their electorate in voting against their wishes ( Hammond for one) that I can see significant changes coming election time.
And as for Corbyn and his farcical fence sitting policies that no one knows what they are, I see his latest is to have a go at financial party backers as being undemocratic, one wonders if he will include the unions in that equation as they appear to rule his policies over what his electorate voted them in on.

dr dre 19th Aug 2019 05:52

Looks like there will be no free movement from day one:

UK to end freedom of movement for EU citizens on day one of Brexit, under new government plan

Shame about any critical workers like NHS workers who'll be out of the country that day.

And looks like the Good Friday Agreement is cactus as well, who knew Brexiteers had the ability to time travel back to the 70's!:

Irish politicians say Brexit report detailing hard Border ‘no surprise’

NoelEvans 19th Aug 2019 06:06


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10548829)
...
Shame about any critical workers like NHS workers who'll be out of the country that day.
...

Where does it say that?

NoelEvans 19th Aug 2019 06:33

I am still waiting for someone to explain the EU's logic on the 'backstop'.

The EU are insisting that the 'backstop' is an essential part of the 'agreement' to protect the Irish border and that there cannot be a 'deal' without it. The 'backstop' is an eventual situation if there is no further progress with future agreements. But this 'backstop' has been soundly rejected by the UK Parliament. So the most likely outcome now is that Britain leaves the EU with no deal which means no 'protection' for the Irish border. So, If the EU are so insistent on 'protection' for the Irish border, why are they happy for there not to be any further negotiation of their 'deal' to make it more palatable for the UK Parliament, which will result in a 'no deal' departure and no protection for the Irish border? Are the EU genuinely concerned about 'protection' for the Irish border, or is this just a bit of meaningless 'banner waving'?

How will the Irish border not be protected if there is 'no deal'? Ireland and the UK (as well as the Channel Islands and the Isle of Mann) are in the Common Travel Area, so there is no restriction on people crossing the border. The British government have stated that they will not close the Irish border to goods crossing into Northern Island. Therefore the only 'protection' that is needed for the Irish border is against the EU imposing restrictions on the movement of goods from Northern Ireland into Ireland.

The Monster Raving Loony Party's policy on this seems far more logical then the EU's:
"There will be no need for a backstop to the Brexit negotiations. We’ll have Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper."

wiggy 19th Aug 2019 06:46


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10548834)
Where does it say that?

It shouldn't need spelling out.

We need to know what the fragrant Ms. Patel's plans are for those EU27 UK resident workers who pitch up at UK Border on 1st Nov (having been on holiday, visiting family etc) and yet depite their best efforts have yet to achieve pre-settled or settled status.

Talk to many people who have tried jumping through the hoops involved with that and you'll hear a lot of stories of the processing no going smoothly even for those with work and residency records for the UK as long as your arm - we're talking IT problems, no receipts of applications due to probs at HMG end - if "Border" start turning those individuals around on 1st Nov due to lack of paperwork there will be shortages in the UK workplace, similarly if UK employers are leaned on immediately post B day to ensure their workers all have proof of settled or re-settled status.

Ms Patel has got herself in the papers again with that announcement but I think her plan for a hard deadline on "B day" will be (quietly) dropped.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...tatus-uk-after


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