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Fly Aiprt 30th Dec 2019 10:33


Originally Posted by Alsacienne (Post 10649816)
Not if you're a UK-expat living in the EU .... gloom and doom come to mind plus a lot of paper-chasing, time-wasting and ill-will.

If the EU has the deals its way, UK expats will be OK in the EU, as will the EU expats in the UK.
Whether that will be agreed within weeks or after a "dirty" break in 2021 remains to be determined.

Grayfly 30th Dec 2019 10:40


Originally Posted by Steepclimb (Post 10649924)
Wales well who knows.

Theme park?

I really hope England gets exactly what it voted for in 2016 in 2020.
Ditto Scotland.

Fly Aiprt 30th Dec 2019 10:55


Originally Posted by Grayfly (Post 10650181)
Theme park?

I really hope England gets exactly what it voted for in 2016 in 2020.
Ditto Scotland.

In a way or another, England will get what it asked for.
Scotland will be happy to regain control of its fishing waters and oil fields the limits of which England has tweaked to its benefit.

Harley Quinn 30th Dec 2019 11:30


Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt (Post 10650193)
In a way or another, England will get what it asked for.
Scotland will be happy to regain control of its fishing waters and oil fields the limits of which England has tweaked to its benefit.

I'm curious about the fishing waters issue. You have clearly stated in previous posts that the EU trawlers would just carry on as before, you rightly pointed out that the UK has insufficient fishery protection/patrol vessels and that EU fishermen would claim 'traditional fishing grounds' as a reason to take fish from UK waters, yet here you say that Scotland will regain control of its waters. The two positions are mutually exclusive.

KelvinD 30th Dec 2019 12:22

And in Scotland, the Scottish navy would enforce fishing and oil production????

Fly Aiprt 30th Dec 2019 12:27


Originally Posted by Harley Quinn (Post 10650210)
... yet here you say that Scotland will regain control of its waters. The two positions are mutually exclusive.

Hi Harley Quinn.
Your attention to messages and memory are to be commended.
With respect, you seem to imply that "regaining control" means some British Frigate chasing French trawlers.
But what if it meant Scotland taking back control of its waters over the English, and chasing them ? And allowing whomever else they see fit to fish in their EEZ ?

Fly Aiprt 30th Dec 2019 12:33


Originally Posted by KelvinD (Post 10650237)
And in Scotland, the Scottish navy would enforce fishing and oil production????

Just like they are currently doing, with their Fishery Protection Vessels...

Gargleblaster 30th Dec 2019 21:52

The future may hold a number of cod wars ? Scotland vs. UK ? EU vs. UK ?

Regarding the non-existing Scottish Navy, you might want to google the cod war between Iceland and the UK in the 70 and take notice of who won, with no navy at all.

Cornish Jack 30th Dec 2019 22:19

A recent discussion on the fishing issue suggested that the status quo will remain post leaving, as the various allocations were sold, signed and sealed to 'foreign' enterprises years ago and are no longer legally 'ours' to squabble over. True or false, I know not, but experience would point to the Brits' knowledge of cost versus value making it quite likely!

Fly Aiprt 31st Dec 2019 01:24


Originally Posted by Gargleblaster (Post 10650563)
The future may hold a number of cod wars ? Scotland vs. UK ? EU vs. UK ?

Regarding the non-existing Scottish Navy, you might want to google the cod war between Iceland and the UK in the 70 and take notice of who won, with no navy at all.

Indeed.
EU vs UK unlikely as fishing deals will be a prerequisite to "other" deals. May even end the scallop wars, where UK boats come plundering the Seine estuary during reproduction season, who knows ?



Fly Aiprt 31st Dec 2019 01:31


Originally Posted by Cornish Jack (Post 10650574)
A recent discussion on the fishing issue suggested that the status quo will remain post leaving, as the various allocations were sold, signed and sealed to 'foreign' enterprises years ago and are no longer legally 'ours' to squabble over. True or false, I know not, but experience would point to the Brits' knowledge of cost versus value making it quite likely!

That may play a partial role, but the main reason is the Laws of the Sea allow fishermen to continue fishing in their traditional fishing grounds.
And fishing trades will be among the first trades to be discussed and implemented in 2021.


The UK will continue to be bound by the requirements of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and how they relate to the management of fisheries in any Brexit outcome. This includes an obligation to co-operate with other coastal states on the management of shared stocks or stocks of associated species. The Fisheries White Paper Sustainable fisheries for future generations, published in July 2018, set out the Government’s intention to continue to co-operate closely with the EU and other coastal states on the sustainable management of fish stocks that cross borders.

Just a spotter 7th Jan 2020 09:52

With the return of Parliament after the Christmas/New Year break, things Brexit, sorry EU Withdrawal kick off again.

For those not paying attention, the Backstop, which had a simple single border and was supported by business groups in Northern Ireland, but dismissed by the DUP and loyalist groups is now replaced with Boris Johnson’s wheeze of a more complicated two border configuration that is opposed by business groups in Northern Ireland, the DUP and loyalist groups along with some other parties in NI.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/northern-ireland-mps-unite-in-seeking-changes-to-brexit-bill-1.4131899

In an attempt to keep the wheels on the wagon, NI Sec of State, Julian Smith met with representatives of the loyalist paramilitaries over the Christmas break to discuss their concerns.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/north...cerns-1807165/

JAS

P.S. the reference in the Irish News story to a murder can be further followed up here https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-38835909.html

LowNSlow 7th Jan 2020 10:08

Regarding "Scottish" oil production, ALL UK Oil & Gas revenues have shrunk dramatically in the last decade according to the OBR:

Since 2008-09 UK oil and gas revenues have fallen from £10.6 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) to £1.1 billion in 2018-19. The fall in receipts has been driven by falling production and higher tax-deductible expenditure. The rate of petroleum revenue tax and the supplementary charge have also been cut substantially.

Sallyann1234 7th Jan 2020 10:55

Not to worry. Trump is busy pushing up the oil price.

LowNSlow 7th Jan 2020 12:19

Sallyann; looks like they are settling back down again now

MFC_Fly 7th Jan 2020 13:57


Originally Posted by LowNSlow (Post 10655872)
Sallyann; looks like they are settling back down again now

But it is still only at 60% of the figure the SNP used to do their independence financial calculations

LowNSlow 7th Jan 2020 16:24

MFC Fly; and overall production is set to reduce again over the next 2 years..... and will fall even faster if the SNP extend their fracking ban to offshore fields

Fly Aiprt 7th Jan 2020 16:33


Originally Posted by LowNSlow (Post 10656047)
if the SNP extend their fracking ban to offshore fields

And rightly so.
That technique is not without dangers.

Fly Aiprt 7th Jan 2020 16:39


Originally Posted by LowNSlow (Post 10655784)
Regarding "Scottish" oil production,

Why the quotation marks ?
Do you mean Scotland shouldn't have control of its own resources and waters ?


LowNSlow 7th Jan 2020 18:31

Fly Aiprt; currently it is "British" but I was trying to separate the "Scottish" fields to the North and North West of the North Sea from the fields in the Irish Sea, Southern North Sea, and the few onshore fields.
Once Scotland gets independence they might find that the much vaunted Scottish Oil is not as big a cash generator as they have assumed.

Fracking has been used continuously offshore for the last 30 years without anybody even noticing so the comment "that technique is not without dangers" is as valid as saying "overtaking a slow moving vehicle on a straight road in daytime is not without dangers".


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