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virginblue 3rd Apr 2019 11:20

It is helpful to have in mind what the EU-27 has been experiencing, sitting on the continental sofa and eating popcorn:

- the UK comes up with a ill-motivated referendum with the guy responsible for it apparenty unable to imagine the result "leave"
- the red bus-inspired majority with the narrowest of union-wide majorities votes for leave, although the majority in parts of the union disagree.
- the UK, after wasting some precious time, finally starts thinking about the leave conditions ,
- the UK triggers Art. 50 without a realistic idea about the time needed and the consequences involved.
- the UK negotiating style in the ensuing negotiations is best characterized by the brexit minister showing up for meetings with his bare hands and a featherbrained smile, whereas the EU negotiators are equipped with mountains of files and a serous look on their face.
- the EU, after much headscratching about delusional demands and expectations on the UK's side, agrees to a deal that comprises stuff suggested by the UK, e.g. the infamous backstop
- the prime ministers potters back home with the deal in her handbag only to have it struck down with the help of her own party for elements of the deal that were suggested by the UK
- the parliament, not wanting the government's deal, could be reasonably expected to come up with something better, but fails over and over again to agree on any solution, be it a no brexit, soft brexit, hard brexit or no deal brexit.

Realistically, one has to applaud to EU for its apparently everlasting patience given the above scenario.

Sallyann1234 3rd Apr 2019 11:52

All absolutely true, except perhaps for

Realistically, one has to applaud to EU for its apparently everlasting patience given the above scenario.
I think their patience was exhausted long ago.
Now they are just stood back in stupefied amazement that a country could shoot itself in the feet so many times and yet keep its finger on the trigger.

LowNSlow 3rd Apr 2019 16:56

racedo your quote

Already shipping lines have been set up that bring goods direct from Dublin to Rotterdam and France avoiding UK completely.
appears to involve one "Brexit busting ferry" which was launched a year ago.

One advantage of the Irish trucks that are enroute to mainland Europe via the UK is the reduced wear and tear on the roads from the 150,000 trucks that pass through the UK to Dover, Felixstowe, Hull etc . :)

the quote regarding imports and exports [QUOTEUK Exports $25 billion to Republic of Ireland and Imports $18 billion. So that is $7 billion trade surplus gone.][/QUOTE] is at odds with the Irish Times who reckon that Ireland imports Euro 19 billion in exports Euro 16 billion (ah, I see you quoted $ no Euro so that's roughly the same). However they make the point that the imports from the UK amount to 24% of Irish imports whereas the UK imports from Ireland amount to 3% which is a significant difference.


Pontius Navigator 3rd Apr 2019 17:09

LnS, that table is fascinating. Looking at the plates on trucks near us we have Poland, Lithuania, Hungary and Romania. Also Spanish but very few German or French.

Apart from Poland the other three are insignificant on that table so transport might be their forte rather than export although they might be collecting for import.

Then looking at Germany and France I wonder what their imports are? Are they concentrated in one or two sectors? Spain is down at 3.2% which suggests the bulk would be low value imports like veg rather than cars.


Pontius Navigator 3rd Apr 2019 17:28

VAT on eBooks
 
Amazon has to levy VAT on eBooks sold in UK . As a matter of interest, is VAT/IVA levied on eBooks in the EU?

In theory I should be able to buy eBooks VAT free in the Canaries or Channel Isles.

NoelEvans 3rd Apr 2019 20:40

I am still waiting to have some logical explanation why clinging onto the Irish Backstop as it 'might' avoid a hard border in Ireland after the end of next year is such a good idea when clinging onto it itself appear to be making a hard border almost a certainty after the end of next week?

Common sense seems to be non-existence. If the EU cannot see something that is as blindingly obvious as that, it has to question all their decision making. They seem to be putting mindless 'principles' ahead of the welfare of the people of Europe.

reynoldsno1 3rd Apr 2019 20:47


When you say "apparently" what you mean is "I'm going to make some stuff up and see if anyone calls me out on it"
No, that's what you decided you wanted it to mean ...
Brexit: Government did not speak to French ports in no-deal plan
apparently
adverb
as far as one knows or can see.
synonyms:seemingly, evidently, it seems (that), it would seem (that), it appears (that), it would appear (that), as far as one knows, by all accounts, so it seems

LowNSlow 3rd Apr 2019 21:20

Reynoldsno1 it was a 12 page report on Portsmouth which is reasonably insignificant in UK/EU ferry traffic. Much ado about nothing is my opinion.

Sallyann1234 3rd Apr 2019 21:34


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10438022)
Common sense seems to be non-existence. If the EU cannot see something that is as blindingly obvious as that, it has to question all their decision making. They seem to be putting mindless 'principles' ahead of the welfare of the people of Europe.

After the desperate shenanigans in Westminster over the past several weeks, it takes a very strange view of the world to blame the EU for not considering the welfare of people. :=

Steepclimb 3rd Apr 2019 22:07


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10438022)
I am still waiting to have some logical explanation why clinging onto the Irish Backstop as it 'might' avoid a hard border in Ireland after the end of next year is such a good idea when clinging onto it itself appear to be making a hard border almost a certainty after the end of next week?

Common sense seems to be non-existence. If the EU cannot see something that is as blindingly obvious as that, it has to question all their decision making. They seem to be putting mindless 'principles' ahead of the welfare of the people of Europe.

I'm not sure why you can't grasp it. The backstop was invented by the British government to prevent a hard border only if at some point negotiations broke down. It's a last resort for everyone and only ever intended to be temporary. No one likes it.
But the DUP and the ERG decided its a trap to keep the UK in the thrall of the EU forever. Another EU conspiracy theory Nonsense of course but logic was never their strong point.
They want a hard border. A hard Brexit gives a hard border immediately. An agreement without a back stop will more than likely result in a hard border when a Brexit led government decides once again that the EU is conspiring against them and pull out of negotiations provoking a hard border.
You talk of common sense. Have you been watching the coverage of the Commons lately? Where's the common sense? Mindlessness writ large.
Stop blaming the EU for British stupidity.

​​​​​

racedo 3rd Apr 2019 23:17


Originally Posted by LowNSlow (Post 10437845)
racedo your quote appears to involve one "Brexit busting ferry" which was launched a year ago.

One advantage of the Irish trucks that are enroute to mainland Europe via the UK is the reduced wear and tear on the roads from the 150,000 trucks that pass through the UK to Dover, Felixstowe, Hull etc . :)

And their spend on fuel and every thing else


the quote regarding imports and exports [QUOTE[color=left=#222222]UK Exports $25 billion to Republic of Ireland and Imports $18 billion. So that is $7 billion trade surplus gone.]] is at odds with the Irish Times who reckon that Ireland imports Euro 19 billion in exports Euro 16 billion (ah, I see you quoted $ no Euro so that's roughly the same). However they make the point that the imports from the UK amount to 24% of Irish imports whereas the UK imports from Ireland amount to 3% which is a significant difference.
I look for sources rather than relying on a Journalist, many of whom are too damm lazy to do their research.

12% of Irish Exports go to the UK - $16 Billion, 23% of Imports $20 Billion of which $3.5 are pharma products exported..
https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/imports-by-country

6% of UK exports go to Ireland - $25 billion, 3% of its Imports or $19 Billion
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...rts-by-country

As Trading Economics are the bible then maybe some even more detailed info and always in US$.
56 % of UK export go to Europe, 7 of the top 10 are EU and these 7 account for 41% of total exports.

Ireland will be badly hit but EU have already pledged billions in support and they will deliver. Problem for UK is it exports will slow down considerably at which point in time jobs get hit. Bearing in mind that it exports 5 billion a week, it doesn't take long before companies start to hurt quickly. Lots of EU companies will buy from within EU because of delays so instead of Nissan Qashqai its Renault Kadjar etc etc. There is no positive for UK economy.

racedo 3rd Apr 2019 23:22


Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator (Post 10437859)
LnS, that table is fascinating. Looking at the plates on trucks near us we have Poland, Lithuania, Hungary and Romania. Also Spanish but very few German or French.

Apart from Poland the other three are insignificant on that table so transport might be their forte rather than export although they might be collecting for import.

Then looking at Germany and France I wonder what their imports are? Are they concentrated in one or two sectors? Spain is down at 3.2% which suggests the bulk would be low value imports like veg rather than cars.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...rts-by-country

pax britanica 4th Apr 2019 07:00

The only mindless activity going on in Europe is in the UK and specifically Westminster, last night we have an important vote decided by a majority of one. Alongside the nonsense of recent weeks it shows we have a democracy in Uk that is totally outdated and indeed have no democracy at all unless there is a second referendum as absolutely every indicator since June 16 has been remain and on the demographics of that vote a good few are dead or infirm by now . read some overseas newspapers , not something that many Quitters do I suspect and see how far we have fallen in the eyes of the world-shocking, you have reduced our ,Once Great country, to the Venezuela of Europe. Bravo

Pontius Navigator 4th Apr 2019 07:34

Racedo, I am not sure why you needed to quote my last post and the link to which I referred that had been posted and LnS.

Anyway:


And their spend on fuel and every thing else
I made the point when Ken Clarke was MOT that fuel duty was a better way of charging for usage rather than a fixed rate tax. That idea was adopted and vehicle tax was frozen for some years. However the law of unforeseen consequences kicked in an continental trucks had larger fuel tanks fitted to take advantage of cross border fuel price differentials.

I don't know the price differentials now but if we are more expensive there would be little tax lost.

From the Irish pov, they will have to balance the shipping fuel against vehicle fuel.

MadamBreakneck 4th Apr 2019 08:41


Originally Posted by Steepclimb (Post 10438078)
I'm not sure why you can't grasp it. The backstop was invented by the British government to prevent a hard border only if at some point negotiations broke down. It's a last resort for everyone and only ever intended to be temporary. No one likes it....

​​​​​

Then all that's needed, if nobody likes it but some people fear it will be neverending, is to establish an end date to the backstop in the 'unlikely event' that no other border agreement is reached. I offer a starting bid of 50 years.

MB

NoelEvans 4th Apr 2019 08:48


Originally Posted by pax britanica (Post 10438252)
... you have reduced our ,Once Great country, to the Venezuela of Europe. Bravo

What utter, utter, utter rubbish! Comments like that taint everything that you say and just add to the belief that remainers do not know what they are talking about.

(To start with, try getting your punctuation right.)

NoelEvans 4th Apr 2019 09:05


Originally Posted by Steepclimb (Post 10438078)
... The backstop was invented by the British government to prevent a hard border only if at some point negotiations broke down. It's a last resort for everyone and only ever intended to be temporary. No one likes it.
..

​​​​​

I don't care who 'invented' it. I am only interested in the lack common sense in claiming that it is not negotiable, which is the EU's position. That 'last resort' to avoid a hard border after the end of next year, through this inflexibility, is now the single point that is most like to cause a hard border by the end of next week. If one clear aspect, the 'Irish backstop' is almost certain to cause a hard border by the end of next week when the only purpose of retaining it is to avoid the possibility of hard border after the end of next year and removing that single aspect, the 'Irish backstop', would almost certainly remove that threat of a hard border after the end of next week and it is 'not negotiable', then I just don't see common sense being used.

virginblue 4th Apr 2019 09:10

What I think is becoming increasingly clear is that the UK parliamentary system has become dysfunctional. A first past the post, two party system works if the two parties are each a strong, coherent group. Nowadays, there is a parliament with numerous de facto smaller parties that only share the name Conservatives or (to a lesser extent) Labour, but are trapped in the ways a two party parliament has traditionally operated. Realistically, this is the typical set-up of parliaments based on proportional representation.


Originally Posted by MadamBreakneck (Post 10438329)
Then all that's needed, if nobody likes it but some people fear it will be neverending, is to establish an end date to the backstop in the 'unlikely event' that no other border agreement is reached. I offer a starting bid of 50 years.

Taking such a pragmatic approach is not exactly the DUP's strong point. They want to avoid the slightest impression that N.I. is treated differently than the rest of the UK, and a backstop would exactly, from their point of view, result in that.
Plus, I doubt that if N.I. has enjoyed 50 years of a backstop with unhindered access to the RoI and to the EU, it would entertain the idea of giving it up. So from the DUP's perspective another nail in the coffin.



Sallyann1234 4th Apr 2019 09:25


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10438333)
What utter, utter, utter rubbish! Comments like that taint everything that you say and just add to the belief that remainers do not know what they are talking about.

(To start with, try getting your punctuation right.)

I can understand that you are feeling sore after your blaming of the EU for the UK government's disastrous behaviour was torn to shreds. But please offer a better defence.

Many of us read foreign news sources and even - horrors! - talk to people in other countries. The overwhelming attitude abroad is that the UK is on a rapid downward path. We hear sorrow and sympathy at what is happening to our country that was once an example to the civilised world.

To compare us with Venezuela is, like much of the discussion on here, an exaggeration. But we are certainly on a downward path and if our elected representatives don't start putting country before self and party there is no hope of revival. The most likely outcome then would be Corbyn's Marxist government with policies very likely those of the benighted Venezuela.

If it makes your feel better to blame the EU for the mess that we have got ourselves into, please keep it to yourself. And occupy yourself by checking punctuation.
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funfly 4th Apr 2019 09:38

To quote Frazer from Dads Army...


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