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Doug E Style 2nd Apr 2019 18:55

All this chaos because of a vote on one day in 2016! It is a fact that the older a voter was, the more likely they were to vote leave. Some of those people will now be dead. It is also a fact that the younger a voter was, the less likely they were to vote in the first place. Given those facts, and how everyone’s eyes have been opened to the far-reaching consequences of leaving the EU in the meantime, can anyone honestly say that another referendum would produce a similar result? In my opinion, a second referendum now would produce an even higher turnout and a result of at least 55/45 in favour of remaining.

Sallyann1234 2nd Apr 2019 19:04


Originally Posted by Doug E Style (Post 10436930)
All this chaos because of a vote on one day in 2016! It is a fact that the older a voter was, the more likely they were to vote leave. Some of those people will now be dead. It is also a fact that the younger a voter was, the less likely they were to vote in the first place. Given those facts, and how everyone’s eyes have been opened to the far-reaching consequences of leaving the EU in the meantime, can anyone honestly say that another referendum would produce a similar result? In my opinion, a second referendum now would produce an even higher turnout and a result of at least 55/45 in favour of remaining.

Which might, just possibly, explain why certain people are desperate to avoid one.

virginblue 2nd Apr 2019 19:14

SNP's Ian Blackford got quite emotional in the Commons last night, stating the follwong:

“ Fundamentally for us that represent seats in Scotland, we voted to remain in the EU. A vast majority of Scottish MPs voted to revoke Article 50, a vast majority of Scottish MPs voted for a People’s Vote, a vast majority of MPs voted to stay in the single market and customs union. It is crystal clear to us from Scotland that our votes in this House are disrespected. It’s becoming increasingly clear to the people of Scotland that if we want to secure future as a European nation that we’re going to have to take our own responsibilities. Sovereignty rests with the people of Scotland, not with this House, and the day is coming when we will determine our future and it will be as an independent country.”

Looks like the Union is facing some challenges as far as Northern Ireland and Scotland remaining in it are concerned...

wiggy 2nd Apr 2019 19:25


Originally Posted by virginblue (Post 10436943)

Looks like the Union is facing some challenges as far as Northern Ireland and Scotland remaining in it are concerned...

I think that’s an understatement, certainly in the case of Scotland..I wonder when the SNP slogan will start using the slogan of “take back control”......they wouldn’t dare..would they?


Sallyann1234 2nd Apr 2019 19:33


Originally Posted by virginblue (Post 10436943)
Looks like the Union is facing some challenges as far as Northern Ireland and Scotland remaining in it are concerned...

That has always been clear since the Brexit referendum.

It won't be easy for the Scots, for all the same reasons that were clear at the last Inderef. But one day they will do it.

Perhaps the technology will be available then for one of those soft borders?


zoigberg 2nd Apr 2019 20:13


Originally Posted by MadamBreakneck (Post 10436893)
Thanks for that explanation........
From both sides, there seems to have been total ignorance of that other negotiator's friend, BATNA (Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement); or perhaps both sides have had 'prevarication, procrastination, and eventual withdrawal of Article 50' as their BATNA whilst continually refusing to admit it.
Meanwhile, sadly I still have no further understanding of what concessions the EU27 side have made from their opening baseliine in order to achieve a compromise. Maybe I never shall have.

MB

Cheers MB. Yes as he says, the EU is a difficult negotiating partner. I rather agree with you regarding BATNA.
There was one fleeting reference in section 10 which alluded to a change of position by the EU:
“But that very commitment to an all UK backstop solution, which, for the PM felt like a breakthrough to a deal which the EU had previously said it could not do as part of the Article 50 process, did not enhance her prospects of getting the Withdrawal Agreement through the House.”

Other than that we may have to wait for the memoirs.

racedo 2nd Apr 2019 21:38


Originally Posted by virginblue (Post 10436753)
Apparently the DUP prefers a hard border between NI and the RoI over a customs border at Holyhead. So matter closed.

Why exactly would the EU - and for that matter, the RoI - prefer a hard Brexit over a customs border using technological means if the latter was workable?

During the troubles 21,000 soldiers, 10,000 RUC and Thousands of reservist were unable to keep control of the border. There are 204 "official" border crossings including many where in a 1 mile stretch you are in and out a number of times. This is not counting where border crosses a field or through a house. It is 310 miles long.

The "technological" solution has zero chance of lasting because put cameras up they will be gone before installation crew are back at their HQ. Of course you could use police and military to install them but how many people do you want to guard each one.

DUP want a mega guarded border if they could have their way, including sending as many non Unionists south as soon as possible.

UK Brexit is being decided by 10 MPs of a party whose policies are anathema to overwhelming majority of UK residents of either polical persuasion. Tail is yet again wagging the London dog which suits the Tory hard right wing.

DUP will find other Unionists are not so agreeable over time which is why a border poll is getting more likely, DUP will end up with what they don't want.

racedo 2nd Apr 2019 21:41


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10436949)


I think that’s an understatement, certainly in the case of Scotland..I wonder when the SNP slogan will start using the slogan of “take back control”......they wouldn’t dare..would they?


Pretty much guaranteed that it will happen.

Tory Government go down as the ones who set in motion the Breakup of the UK & NI, all because the weakest Prime Minister in history caved in to the Tory right.

Sallyann1234 2nd Apr 2019 21:53


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10437061)
Pretty much guaranteed that it will happen.

Tory Government go down as the ones who set in motion the Breakup of the UK & NI, all because David Cameron caved in to the Tory right.

Corrected that for you.



racedo 2nd Apr 2019 21:54


Originally Posted by KelvinD (Post 10436744)
The UK government could, in theory, say "Yeah. We will not impose border restrictions in Ireland. By the way, all goods entering the UK from Ireland will have to be cleared in Holyhead." There's plenty of space on Anglesey to build and operate a customs facility. There is even a sort of precedent for this. I remember about 30 or 40 years ago, all Japanese imports of VCR and other electronic consumer goods had to be landed in France and driven to a town nearer the centre of France (can't remember the name now) for customs clearance.

UK Exports $25 billion to Republic of Ireland and Imports $18 billion. So that is $7 billion trade surplus gone. Dublin will reciprocate and ensure everything goes through Dublin port and a single area

So what does UK sell to Ireland than cannot be sourced elsewhere ?

In 1930's in an economic war between London and Dublin, the Irish Govt and economy took a lot of pain but had population support, they would do it again but this time they have EU behind them. Anybody who thinks Irish population wouldn't support their Govt really needs to travel across and speak to Irish people.
.
Already shipping lines have been set up that bring goods direct from Dublin to Rotterdam and France avoiding UK completely. They have done more Brexit planning than London it appears.

Mr Optimistic 2nd Apr 2019 22:02

Not sure anyone ' caved in'. People faced with pursuing a course of action they don't agree with in an atmosphere of political opportunism. To spend 2 years in negotiation on the nations behalf in secret and then to claim it's my deal or no deal is reprehensible and just stupid. We have to leave to be able to negotiate. So let's just leave. It will end with a customs union in one form or another. However can we get rid of the head girl: that would cheer me up.

racedo 2nd Apr 2019 22:47


Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic (Post 10437075)
Not sure anyone ' caved in'. People faced with pursuing a course of action they don't agree with in an atmosphere of political opportunism. To spend 2 years in negotiation on the nations behalf in secret and then to claim it's my deal or no deal is reprehensible and just stupid. We have to leave to be able to negotiate. So let's just leave. It will end with a customs union in one form or another. However can we get rid of the head girl: that would cheer me up.

I have little time for TM but she has shown more backbone than any other Tory MP. History will judge her fairly.

reynoldsno1 3rd Apr 2019 03:10


They have done more Brexit planning than London it appears.
Apparently all the UK planning for the Channel ports in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit has not involved any liaison with the French ports across the water ...

rustle 3rd Apr 2019 06:03


Originally Posted by reynoldsno1 (Post 10437181)
Apparently all..

When you say "apparently" what you mean is "I'm going to make some stuff up and see if anyone calls me out on it"

This is why remain lost an unlosable referendum.

Why not stop doing it now?

Krystal n chips 3rd Apr 2019 07:11

A bit of culture for JB....never let it be said us Guardian readers is philisitines .....unfortunately, the depiction happens to be rather more factual than surreal.

https://www.theguardian.com/artandde...ain-edge-abyss

By way of balance......Steve Bell.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...cement-cartoon

oldairphot 3rd Apr 2019 07:52


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10437094)
I have little time for TM but she has shown more backbone than any other Tory MP. History will judge her fairly.

Are you sure about that? she has certainly done so to Tusk and co.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1d0d349435.jpg

CargoMatatu 3rd Apr 2019 07:56


Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 (Post 10437069)
Corrected that for you.

:ok::ok::ok:

pax britanica 3rd Apr 2019 09:41

Talk about negotiation in situations like this is ludicrous, who would we send instead of the PM-Res Mogg-,laughed at as soon as he shows his face and has no credibility-dodgy funds manager old Etonian . Boris, well we all saw how great at negotiating when Foreign Sec, the kind of f=person who would come out of DFS with two full price sofas .
Negotiation at this level is about the issues and the strength behind the positions , Trump and N Korea, all noise no action. . US vs the EU , one against 27 no real chance of gettign your own way. Leaving means a big black hole for us and a decent sized one for the Eu but it isnt the Eu that matters its the other 27 Countries and the economic impact on each of them is not that great whereas its 100% for us or 200% if Boris is doing the negotiating. So we are in extra time with a government and Parliament who do not have a clue what to do , open talk of a general election only 2.5 years after the last one but we cannot have a referendum because we had one THREE years ago , presumably because too many MPs have money at stake or took Vlads gold and havent delivered the goods. Isnt taking money from a foreign power who is potential enemy treason?

racedo 3rd Apr 2019 10:00


Originally Posted by oldairphot (Post 10437296)
Are you sure about that? she has certainly done so to Tusk and co.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1d0d349435.jpg

She picked up a bag of shit while the Old Etonians sat on the sidelines sniping.

wiggy 3rd Apr 2019 10:22


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10437423)
She picked up a bag of shit while the Old Etonians sat on the sidelines sniping.

I think there are a fair few who are of the opinion that the Old Etonians were smart enough to realise it was a bag they didn’t want to pick up....




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