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LowNSlow 17th Oct 2019 17:26

Nice of Juncker to round off a very non-confrontational press conference by saying "tell the 48% they were right". Very statesmanlike.

Also listening to the likes of Kier Starmer banging on about how this deal is worse than May's deal makes me realise that they haven't actually read the new deal which is actually an amendment only to Articles 184 and 185 (the backstop) in the original May deal. All the rest is the same FFS!

wiggy 17th Oct 2019 17:53

I'm really surprised nobody here this afternoon has picked up on Nigel Farage seemingly making a statement in which he defends the Benn Act.......



Independent MP Nick Boles, a former Conservative, wrote: "Now I’m confused. I thought Nigel Farage wanted to 'just leave' on 31 October which is what the Benn Act was designed to prevent."

Tory MP Ben Bradley, a vocal Eurosceptic, said: "He's totally lost the plot? Farage arguing for Benn Act and demanding an extension?! Can't think of many Brexit backers who will agree with that position. Why does he think UK law should apply outside of the UK?"

He added that Mr Farage "wants us to stay in so he's still relevant".

The Benn Act, which was passed by MPs last month, has repeatedly been referred to by Brexiteers as "the Surrender Act"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9160476.html

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nigel-farage-says-he-would-support-eu-extension-over-brexit-deal-1-6327841

ORAC 17th Oct 2019 18:21

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...al-or-no-deal/

For the EU, it’s this deal or no deal

Having reached a deal with the EU, Boris Johnson’s task is now to find a majority in the House of Commons. This is complicated by the rejection of the deal by the DUP. There is also a serious question whether the Prime Minister can convince not only the MPs supporting his government but also the Conservative rebels and a sufficient number of the opposition.

One of the issues is the Benn Act. Having the possibility to avoid a no-deal situation by another extension might tempt many MPs to vote against a deal that will contain a range of difficult provisions, as well as providing a tempting opportunity to defeat Johnson yet again.

What is the rational response from an EU27 perspective? One is to wait and see what the House of Commons decides and, if it be no deal, hold out for the letter requesting an extension, hoping that, in the end, the political processes in the UK will lead to a second referendum that returns a remain majority. This is risky and only holds a small chance of success. However, it does buy some time.

But many are asking the time for what, with no resolution on the horizon and a general election unlikely to produce a clear outcome. So the other option is to take the possibility of another substantive extension off the table, creating a stark choice for MPs between this deal or no deal at all. Yes, there would need to be a technical extension in any case but this could be made conditional on the House of Commons passing the deal in principle.

This might well represent the best chance for achieving an orderly Brexit. The deal currently on the table is probably the only alternative to Theresa May’s deal that is consistent with EU principles and crucially preserves the soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. By forcing a decision between this deal and no deal, it might well be the only way MPs are forced to make their mind up; if this deal does not pass, there is no other deal out there that has a better chance.

Many pro-Europeans in the UK will be outraged by such a move. But by now, overwhelmingly, EU27 leaders are looking for a way to get Brexit done in an orderly manner, rather than hoping the decision will be reversed.

This will not dampen the political turmoil in the UK, but to some extent it does isolate the EU27 from whatever is to come. It should thus be no surprise that President Juncker has already emphasised that there will be no extension. For many in the EU, it is this deal or no deal.

Fabian Zuleeg is chief executive at the European Policy Centre. This article was originally published here

Chronus 17th Oct 2019 18:46

ORAC suggests a way for a, "orderly brexit". But what is the converse, is it a disorderly brexit. In the event that on the 31st any form of brexit fails or worse still another extension is sought and agreed, then is there not a chance order may turn into its opposite, disorder, by another name, civil unrest. Such disorder seems to be flaring up all over the globe. Why should we here in the UK be immune to it. Are we all so well restrained and tolerant so as not to say enough is enough, most perhaps may be, but certainly not all.

This is the headline from The Week "

Could there be riots after no-deal Brexit?

and here is an extract from it:

"The British Army is reportedly drawing up plans to deploy soldiers across the country amid fears of civil unrest if the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal."

The full article appears at :https://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/978...no-deal-brexit

Exrigger 17th Oct 2019 18:48


One of the issues is the Benn Act. Having the possibility to avoid a no-deal situation by another extension might tempt many MPs to vote against a deal that will contain a range of difficult provisions, as well as providing a tempting opportunity to defeat Johnson yet again.
Orac: The Benn act will not apply if they turn down the agreement/deal, as I posted earlier it states that if Johnson has not agreed a deal with the EU by the 19th, or got Westminster to agree to a default exit then he has to ask for an extension, it says nothing about what happens if they do not accept any deal that Johnson has made in compliance with the Benn Act, which he has achieved by the 19th, therefore if they think that by voting the deal out Johnson HAS to request an extension then they have not realised exactly what the Benn Act they voted in means.

Added apology, as I have now found a different wording for the Benn Act, which means your assumption could be correct after all, Orac:


If MPs haven’t approved a deal in a ‘meaningful vote’, or approved leaving the EU with no deal, by Saturday, October 19, 2019, the prime minister must send a letter - with the wording specifically set out in the Act - to the president of the European Council asking for an extension to Article 50.
Full act:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/...acted/data.htm

Sallyann1234 17th Oct 2019 20:39


Originally Posted by LowNSlow (Post 10596909)
Nice of Juncker to round off a very non-confrontational press conference by saying "tell the 48% they were right". Very statesmanlike.

Also listening to the likes of Kier Starmer banging on about how this deal is worse than May's deal makes me realise that they haven't actually read the new deal which is actually an amendment only to Articles 184 and 185 (the backstop) in the original May deal. All the rest is the same FFS!

On Radio 4 this evening we heard Boris's interview from some time back (was driving so I missed the date) when he stated categorically that no Conservative Party could ever accept a customs barrier down the Irish Sea.

And now he has accepted just that he calls it "an excellent deal".

NutLoose 17th Oct 2019 21:14

And the scum not unsurprisingly start to climb out from under their rocks..

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...get/ar-AAIVfbT

Steepclimb 17th Oct 2019 21:29


Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 (Post 10597030)
On Radio 4 this evening we heard Boris's interview from some time back (was driving so I missed the date) when he stated categorically that no Conservative Party could ever accept a customs barrier down the Irish Sea.

And now he has accepted just that he calls it "an excellent deal".

Of course he is after all the consumate politician. If you search my posts I long ago said he'd 'betray' the DUP. He has.
But of course the DUP is the DUP. They don't actually represent Northern Ireland.
If he gets this thing over the line. His place in history is assured. As basically the person who finally dragged the UK out of the EU, precipitated Scotland out of the the UK and reunited Ireland. So I suppose there'll be a statue to him in O'connell Street in Dublin.

Maybe not the legacy he expected.
​​​​​
​​​​​​

ORAC 18th Oct 2019 05:39

Looks like there wonít be a vote on adding a referendum to the deal on Saturday......

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...rday-kxdtdjxbw

Brexit deal: Remainers wary of making their move on Super Saturday

Remainer MPs appeared last night to be backing away from forcing a vote on a second referendum tomorrow, despite winning the right to table amendments to Boris Johnsonís Brexit motion in the Commons. Although Labour now backs a second referendum in all circumstances, the party refused to confirm that it would use the historic Saturday sitting to try to impose a ďconfirmatoryĒ vote condition on the prime ministerís deal getting through parliament.......

.....amid fears that a Commons majority for such a move did not exist, a senior source in the Peopleís Vote campaign sought to dampen expectations. They said instead that they would not force the issue to a vote in an attempt to maximise their chance of winning rebel Tory MPs round before the end of the month......

The problems are not confined to the Conservative benches. One Labour MP who backed a second referendum in indicative votes before Easter vowed to vote against it if it was retabled on Saturday. ďI donít want to go public because I donít want the grief from the Peopleís Vote lot,Ē the politician said. ďBut I think there will be 30 to 35 Labour MPs still against it.Ē The MP added: ďAn election on the back of parliament kiboshing a deal is probably the worst option for Labour MPs in Leave seats.Ē.......

One reason the numbers in support could be difficult is the Scottish National Party. It is SNP policy to hold a second referendum on EU membership but The Times understands that senior figures in the party are sceptical about backing another ballot that involves Mr Johnsonís deal. They do not trust either the prime minister or Mr Corbyn to deliver such a vote and are concerned that a confirmatory referendum would lead to a convincing vote to leave the EU......








Krystal n chips 18th Oct 2019 05:40

It's always a delight to see that well established nursery > public school > elite university > politics lineage coming to the fore when it comes to defining ones chums.

Dave's term is quite definitive really " greased piglet " being apt, but he's actually made an astute, well astute for Dave that is, observation about Boris and his selfish duplicity, hypocrisy and aspirations.......

The article about the Army being deployed isn't that far fetched and there are some on here who would be delighted if this was the case. That said, it's worth remembering hate crime, hate crime isn't a real crime of course, according to the JB interpretation of crime that is, but is very real to those who are the recipients, rose after the referendum result so it's quite possible there will be civil unrest at some point. Probably when the various shortages become apparent and the recession starts in earnest....




https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-david-cameron

About that interview with the latest incarnation of "the boys "...it's a shame the rest of the piece on C4 News wasn't included because, whilst the security services are very much aware of their potential, the reality is that they are very much a minority group with a very small membership and do not enjoy any form of support from the vast majority of the population.

https://www.channel4.com/news/new-ir...get-for-attack

ORAC 18th Oct 2019 08:27

Well the Luxembourg and Italian Prime Ministers laid it on the line on the carpet into the EU this morning.

To quote the Italian PM - the MPs tomorrow have to realise the choice in from of them isn’t between Brexit and no Brexit, it’s between Brexit with a deal and Brexit with no deal.

bulldog89 18th Oct 2019 08:31


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10597349)
Well the Luxembourg and Italian Prime Ministers lId it on the line on the carpet into the EU this morning.

To quote the Italian PM - the MPs tomorrow have to realise the choice in from of them isnít between Brexit and no Brexit, itís between Brexit with a deal and Brexit with no deal.

I hope they'd already understood that...

Exrigger 18th Oct 2019 08:56

My thoughts on what will happen next, based on the last three years of ego driven one-upmanship within Westminster:

1. The agreement will not be passed tomorrow.

2. Johnson will request an extension, as he must.

3. The EU will agree to extend to the Benn Act date of January 2020.

4. Westminster will continue as they have for the last three years.

5. At the end of that extension we will be exactly where we are today, and it will matter not who is in No. 10 from the Conservative or Labour party. I do not think realistically that any other party will get anywhere near enough votes to make a difference to their prospects of holding office. I also don't reckon a coalition is feasible with the current party individuals and even if it was they would have as much chance of getting their Brexit deals passed through Westminster as the Conservatives have to date.

back to Boeing 18th Oct 2019 09:02


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10597349)
Well the Luxembourg and Italian Prime Ministers lId it on the line on the carpet into the EU this morning.

To quote the Italian PM - the MPs tomorrow have to realise the choice in from of them isnít between Brexit and no Brexit, itís between Brexit with a deal and Brexit with no deal.

Thats not true though is it. We do know from a court case in the dim and distant past that the U.K. can still unilaterally revoke article 50.

Effluent Man 18th Oct 2019 11:01

I think it will pass. Corbyn is giving a nod and a wink to potential Labour rebels. It's possible it could be a dead heat and Bercow asked to make the casting vote. Interesting that the DUP are lobbying Tories to vote agin.

charliegolf 18th Oct 2019 11:32


Originally Posted by Effluent Man (Post 10597462)
I think it will pass. Corbyn is giving a nod and a wink to potential Labour rebels. It's possible it could be a dead heat and Bercow asked to make the casting vote. Interesting that the DUP are lobbying Tories to vote agin.

Isn't Lansman cuttin up rough though?
The 'right' thing for Bercow would be to go with the government in a tie-break. He did so a while back, and explained himself at the time.

CG

Curious Pax 18th Oct 2019 11:42

As itís so tight it could be that brother of Boris is the deciding vote! Depending on whether he wants a Christmas card from bro I suppose!

LowNSlow 18th Oct 2019 11:55

Iíve got a horrible feeling that exrigger has got it spot on.....

Blacksheep 18th Oct 2019 13:28


Dave's term is quite definitive really " greased piglet " being apt . . .
Oh yes, Dave knows all bout greased piglets! :}

KelvinD 18th Oct 2019 13:35

Well, after getting such a fantastic deal, who would have thought Boris would table this for debate tomorrow:
" That this House approves the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on exit day, without a withdrawal agreement as defined in section 20(1) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 "
Without a withdrawal agreement eh?


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