As the dust settles on the USA presidential election, there are fears in Queensland that Pauline Hanson's One Nation party may become the major party in the next election.
Interesting times ahead.

I think how things pan out with Brexit and Trump will shape the future of One Nation and other populist parties.

The media is misinterpreting a poll for headlines.

No Cookies | The Courier Mail

They are only concentrating on the survey question about who would better address their concerns but ignoring the more relevant "which party would you vote for?" question.

The percentage of Queenslanders who would vote One Nation today according to that poll is at 12%. The percentage that voted for them at the last federal election was 9.5%, so after all the publicity and media mentions they have gained after the election they have barely increased their vote percentage. It's also interesting to see that basically the same proportion of people who voted for another Queenslander (Clive Palmer) in 2013 was exactly the same proportion who switched their votes to Hanson in 2016:

First preferences by Senate group - AEC Tally Room

It's also much less than the 22% they got at the 1998 QLD state election.

Queensland is the most conservative state, so it's no surprise that their polling there is the highest but overall they only got 4.5% of first preference Senate votes nationally. The Greens more than doubled that. Opinion polls taken since the election again show that despite all the publicity One Nation has been receiving their polling nationally is only at 6%. The Greens are on 10%. With Australia's compulsory voting her numbers won't move much more beyond her current totals.

Don't burst their bubble dr dre :=

Who's bubble is that?

Ummm, One Nations...

Ummmm, I'd check out what is happening here in West Aust before making any wild predictions.

Dr Dre - after the polls forecasts for both Brexit and Trump v. Clinton does anyone really believe anything the pollsters say any more?

Some have claimed after both these polls that he pollsters were "way off" with their predictions. This may be more of a case of the media running with the polls as a firm forecast but in reality both races were tight and the finals polls weren't actually that far off the reality. In the presidential election the final polls showed about a 3% point lead overall to Clinton, in reality the final count is about a 1% lead to Clinton (she's received about a million more total votes than Trump) so the polls were only 2% off. And don't forget Trump wasn't running as a third party like Hanson, he was running as the nominee of the established Conservative party, polling shows that most people who voted for him were established Republican voters.

With brexit it was more skewed with a 6% difference but it was a national plebiscite with traditional party voting patterns not observed. And both brexit and Trump were non-compulsory votes.

Australian elections are compulsory, based on seats in a parliament and based on preferential and proportional representation rather than first past the post as Brexit and the US election were, so it does make it easier to predict. The final polls taken for the 2016 Australian election (held after the Brexit vote) showed a two party preferred lead to the coalition of 1%. The result was 0.7% TPP to the Coalition. It was shown in the polls that Hanson was likely to win a seat in Qld, and picked up the others because this was a full not half senate election.

As far as WA goes the polling is showing a TPP preferred lead swinging to Labor. If One Nation were to take a proportion of the vote they would take votes from the Coalition, it would be similar to 2001 when the distribution of preferences handed the election to Labor.

Cheers, I needed a good giggle today :ok:

Ummmm don't cherry pick a quote to start an argument.

Noel Pearson accuses our ABC of being racist.
ABC rejects Noel Pearson's criticism organisation is 'miserable, racist' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Too many people with too much invested in keeping the miserable status quo to listen to Noel or the others like Marcia Langton who made a very powerful speech along the same sort of lines last week.

As the old Yorkshire saying goes "Where there's muck there's brass"

If Triggs and co gave a hoot about human rights they'd be looking closer to home than some girl in Germany who feels offended or the poor lady who had to take years off work because someone said something a bit blunt on Facebook and deal with the real and horrific human rights abuses going on all over Australia to Australians every single day.

Just a reminder.

Its only a game

Isn't it?

Hi Clare, could you link this please, can't find it at this time.

I was fairly disgusted with Marcia when she denigrated my Aunty - Bess Price. You may know her as a traditional full blood from the Walpiri clan, who is fairly outspoken about the gamon blackfellas from down south.

Owen
It was an address to the National Press Club last week.
She was joined by Josephine Cashman and Jacinta.
Link will be at abc.net.au.

Hi owen, I have heard Ms Langton say things I don't agree with for sure, however Bess Price is somebody I have a huge amount of respect for; if only more people would listen to what she has been saying for a long time. :ok:

Thanks for the link guys,
The three women highlight the difference between the urban and the remote viewpoint on who is responsible for the violence on communities.
Langton and Josephine are still caught in the paradigm that it is the governments responsibility - Jacinta Price, from the Wilpiri Clan knows the truth.Full article here:http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...3df202824aeee2

The West Australian election is becoming very interesting, Liberals are preferencing One Nation in rural areas.

Libs and Labor in the West are both running scared of One Nation. They were laughing at them a few years ago, they are not laughing now.

Brendan Grylls' proposed mining tax has gone down like a lead balloon. The Nationals are on the nose, as are the Libs. People are more concerned about their jobs than about any role Hanson may play in the next government IMO.

Also in aviation many of us haven't forgotten the role he and other members of the Nationals played when Ascot Capital were trying close Jandakot Airport and the interesting background of the "consultants" paid to try and *ahem* persuade tenants to pack up and go.

I heard a bit about that over here in SA Clare Prop. Could I be correct in assuming that the 'consultants' might possibly have been more accurately described as 'standover men?':ooh:

As for the Nationals; IMHO they lost their way many years ago, shortly after changing their name from the original 'Country Party.' I stopped giving them my preferences about the same time.

Admittedly, the original Country Party occasionally justified their somewhat cynical nickname of 'Agrarian Socialists':hmm: but the mob that comprise the Nationals at present.....well, they just leave me somewhat confused. I really don't know just what they stand for!:confused:

Just keep an eye on Ms Reinhardt and the people she's gathering around her.

Pinky, the Country party had to change their name.
Back in the "70s the younger folk formed the young Libs ( up and coming Liberal kids) and the Labour party the same with the Young Labs, and the Country Party changed to the National Party.

It seems to me that the National Party itself doesn't know what it stands for - other than greyhound racing.

Why???

So what if the younger folk formed the 'Young Libs/Labor.' Other than the obvious crude and obscene phrase 'Young C.......' on which only a political desperate:rolleyes: would use in an attempt to make any political mileage on, I still see no reason for the change and sell out what was their base and IMHO their real reason for existing.:=

Goes to show a joke from the 70s doesn't translate well in 2017.

When Polytechnics were transforming themselves into City universities and Newcastle Polytechnic became the City University at Newcastle upon Tyne they decided to alter their title to the University of Northumbria at Newcastle - or Northumbria University.

Pinky, I have a massive dossier on this and was closely involved in it; the real standover was done by the leaseholders themselves and it was a very unpleasant "bad cop" move and meant that all tenants needed a witness at every meeting.

There was a pair of "good cops" through a company called ARID who were employed by them and indeed used the same office address as them to do "community and stakeholder consultation" ie present tenants and local residents of the propsed site (they didn't bargain for a lady called Irene who organised a massive backlash group around the proposed site called FLORA) with a fait accompli that the airport was being "relocated" based on "facts and figures" that were absolute rubbish and quickly and easily discredited.

ARID were NOT, hardly surprisingly, accredited with the Australian Market and Social Research Society.

Much to their dismay many of the tenants were also residents in the local community and kept asking awkward questions at their community 'stakeholder meetings" like "why are you, as a member of the state executive of the National Party, trying to aid a foreign investment company to gain freehold of the airport site and propose to demolish the RFDS base and move them to a location an hours drive further away from any hospitals which they have already stated would compromise patient safety?"

It took six months an a lot of pressure for Mark Vaile to finally put them all back in their box. From the Australian

One of the pair is now a Minister in the WA State government. The other tried and failed to unseat Wilson Tuckey and now runs a company who say on their home page:

Our work is based on solid skills and experience in community engagement, stakeholder relations, strategic planning, mediation, negotiation and brokering partnerships or strategic alliances to foster participation and co-operation.


Now you can have fun with that in a game of [email protected] word bingo, or you can see the more sinister message.


Unfortunately for Mr Gryllth none of them covered their tracks very well, all they did was try to deny the connection despite mountains of evidence. They really underestimated a lot of people, but particularly the formidable Irene and of course the late Don Randall and Judith Adams.

And let's not forget the Royalties for Regions money that vanished over that flying school in Northam that never turned a prop?

turnBull, attempting to associate himself with "a very great"...

"..."A very great politician, Winston Churchill, once said that politicians complaining about the newspapers is like a sailor complaining about the sea," he told reporters in New Zealand.
"There is not much point. That is the media we live with and we have to get our message across and we thank you all in the media for your kind attention."..."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-1...s-time/8281696

Back in Churchill's day the newspapers were basically the only game in town. So for Churchill to compare the newspapers to a sea were appropriate.

Nowa-days, the sea has receded and we are left with a morass of swamps. Some good and healthy swamps, and some putrid dying cess-pits.

So while Trump flys over the swamps in his daily discourse and talks of draining the fetid cess-pits, we see turnBull knee deep in a cess-pit holding onto the rotten remnants of a once great HMAS 'ABC'.

I guess when yer spent a long time knee-deep in a cess-pit it would start to look like a sea. "..we thank you all in the media for your kind attention..".....:hmm:







.

I would have thought that Turnbull having a go at Trump for whinging about the media would be more newsworthy.

Re indigenous welfare: One example doesn't make an argument, but it is at least an example.

In my work I'm currently dealing with a young Chinese immigrant couple. They've bought a run-down house in a good area and they're renovating it. The husband works in a pie factory and has a second job cleaning industrial premises. He has poor English. His wife works as a nurse and cleans houses. Her English is quite good, and with the efforts of her and their six year old son the three of them are improving their English, with a blackboard set up in a room of the house and books on learning English. In addition to their multiple jobs, they are renovating the house. The woman told me they want to be financially independent and send their son to a good school and hopefully university.

The point is that they are from a minority community with disadvantages, similar to indigenous Australians. Where they are dissimilar is in taking charge of their situation and working hard to improve it by their own efforts. They are turning what they have to their best advantage. In their spare time (!) they tend their chooks and grow vegetables.

They're not asking for anything and as the woman said, 'We are so grateful to be in Australia. We want to be Australians.'

They are a credit to themselves and an asset to the country.

Please explain

Yeah, though that don't fit with the 'Trump bad' theology...

"...It reminds me of that joke about bad-boy English footballer George Best. George is discovered by a reporter in a fancy hotel bedroom with a half-naked model, quaffing a bottle of champagne. Where did it all go wrong, George, the reporter asks?..."

Trump Must Change, They Say. Really? ? Quadrant Online



Meanwhile, over in ABC Trump hysteria land...

"...Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom appeared to respond to the statement by posting on Twitter an excerpt of a recent speech in which she said democracy and diplomacy "require us to respect science, facts and the media"..."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-2...swedes/8284758

Crikey :ooh: The words "Respect, science, facts, and media" all associated in one sentence. Guaranteed from the get-go to get honerable mention in any and all ABC orgs..:hmm:

Although, when one looks for 'facts'.....
"...A request for data detailing the relationship between crime and immigration in Sweden has been blocked by the government..."

Sweden Blocks Request for Data on Crime and Immigration






.

Impossible!!!!!*

*Said in my best (Aussie Actor) Kevin Goldsby voice when he portrayed a French Immigration Officer in some Ad:D:E

Binghi; Ya reckon?:}


Cynical and sarcastic?? Who....me???:confused:

Goodness gracious me, yet another stellar clustafeck from the bissHop turnBull team. As always with these clowns, it is somebody else's fault..:hmm:

"...the Turnbull camp accept no blame. Second, they rage against Tony Abbott,..."

No Cookies | Herald Sun


How long do we have to put up with these idiots ?






.

Indeed, I wonder.

But what alternative is there?:confused:

The mere thought of a Shorten led Labor Government fills me with dread.:ugh:

Bring back Latham I say!

I think that is the biggest problem. They are all out of touch incompents. The whole lot of them.