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-   -   War in Australia (any Oz Politics): the Original (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/477678-war-australia-any-oz-politics-original.html)

410 5th Aug 2013 23:19

Some figures to set most people's heads spinning.

- two boats arrived yesterday, with 4 crew and 114 passengers
- arrivals for the first 4 days of August, 382
- arrivals for July, 4077
- arrivals since 1 Jan 13, 17,986.

Almost all crew members are being sent back to Indonesia without charge since Nicola Roxon changed the policy. Only 10 crewmembers, (repeat offenders), have been arrested from the crews of the 250 vessels that have arrived since Roxon's change of policy.

500N 5th Aug 2013 23:21

Change of Policy not a bad one.

As long as you get photos, details, charging low end crew is pointless.

Buster Hyman 5th Aug 2013 23:23

Here you go. What do you really think?

Vote Compass - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I came out closest to the Libs, but closer to the centre of the graph at the end...no surprise really.

Worrals in the wilds 5th Aug 2013 23:25


...awaiting your correction if I have this wrong.
Nah, that was right. The bogan on the street opinion was that the government would be wasting 'their' water, so they ignored the recommendations to release it.

The capacity issue was another piece of ALP political fudgery; during the drought Beattie's government reclassified the dam's 100% capacity to be defined as a particular number of days (300 rings a bell) x Brisbane's average daily water consumption. This was about 60% of the dam's actual capacity, with the rest reclassified as 'flood storage'. The actual figures are buried somewhere on this site;
Wivenhoe Dam | Seqwater

While various quasi-learned arguments were put forth by the government, the view around town was that this was to prevent panic about the low level of the dam. 25% full (of the 60% of the actual 'full)' sounded much more politically palatable than the percentage of the actual capacity. Presumably people would be less likely to ask WTF the state government had actually been doing about water provision if they didn't hear scary numbers like 10%.

Come the floods this bit them on the butt big time, as the nightly news reports of the dam being at 215% capacity were justifiably giving everyone downstream nightmares.

The dam never reached the fuse plug walls (clay walls that will disintegrate to prevent the main wall being overtopped, which would destroy it) but by all unofficial accounts it was close. To my knowledge there were no media released photos of the maximum height.
Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

Here you go. What do you really think?
EDIT: I did it the other day and came out as socially conservative Labor. Not really a surprise... A self proclaimed Green supporting friend is in deep shock because he came out as an economic conservative...:eek: The rest of us are still laughing. :E

500N 5th Aug 2013 23:34

In Vic, I think it was Vic Fish who had a continually updated web site
re dam capacity. Most read between 0 and 20% for quite a while

No point in trying to fudge Vic, too many people live too close to
the dams !!!


That Brisbane flood though, what a Cluster. We are going to have a similar
problem here in Vic when rivers flood because councils have allowed
building on Flood plains.

Andu 6th Aug 2013 00:26

Another interesting, (but I must admit, in no way surprising), point was raised by the editor of a community newspaper in Sydney's western suburbs during Tony Abbott's visit to the area for the Iftar meal yesterday.

Her comment? (to paraphrase) "Virtually everyone has a relative back home ("back home" were her words, not mine) who they'd like to be reunited with."

There'd be many who, whilst not willing to say so in a public forum, find that this very point is what disturbs them the most in Australia having accepted almost 50,000 illegal arrivals since 2007. Even disregarding the fact that people from the Middle East and similar areas enjoy a traditionally far higher birth rate than most Australians, thanks purely to family reunions, that 50,000 will translate into a far, far larger number of people who seem to most of us to have little or no interest to assimilating - with the noted exception of accepting wholeheartedly our welfare system.

sisemen 6th Aug 2013 01:19

Vote Compass - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I am pleased to report that Labor and I have very little in common and the Greens and I are so far apart it ain't true.

CoodaShooda 6th Aug 2013 04:25

Thanks Worralls. Will reply as soon as I get a chance.

Andu

It was only a couple of generations back that white, Anglo-Aussies looked longingly to the Mother Country that is England.

I'm waiting to see the current generation of middle eastern derived, skippy haters try to raise their kids in our multi-media society. :E


Had a go at that Voter Compass and am appalled at the result.
I used to pride myself on being politically atheistic but those bloody academics have devised a compass that superimposes me on the Liberal dot.

I blame our local True Believers and the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd governments, whose hamfisted efforts at playing politics have pushed me away from labor.

chuboy 6th Aug 2013 04:26


Originally Posted by Andu (Post 7978576)
with the noted exception of accepting wholeheartedly our welfare system.

Was this woman on welfare?

My mother has been living in Australia for more than 20 years and home for her is still where she grew up overseas. Contrary to popular belief (at least here) she has never been on welfare.

People leeching off welfare is a problem, but let's not muddle the issue with immigration. It's a Venn diagram.

Cooda: the results of that vote compass, according to its background information, were derived by independent academics from overseas, not by anyone even remotely related to Australian politics. Perhaps the truth just hurts? :ok:

RJM 6th Aug 2013 04:50

More research on SEQ dams - Wolffdene was to have taken the storage load from Wivenhoe, thereby allowing Wivenhoe to act as a flood mitigator. So any role Rudd had in stopping Wolffdene would make Rudd partly at fault for what happened.


Wolfdene Dam

Saltie 6th Aug 2013 05:33

I think the point Andu was trying to make was that around 90% of self-selected refugees from Afghanistan and Iran were reported to be still on welfare five years after arriving here - UNINVITED. I don't think the same could be said of the Greeks, Italians, Jugoslavs - or Vietnamese.

Can't speak for the Poms. :)

SOPS 6th Aug 2013 05:57

382 arrivals in the first 4 days of August!!?? That PNG thing is working really well, isn't it?:mad::mad::ugh::ugh:

Worrals in the wilds 6th Aug 2013 05:57

Of course I'm no expert, but by the looks of it neither is he...

J. V. Hodgkinson F. C. A. Chartered Accountant

A little further down the track people in SEQ realised that with the Backup of Wolfdene Dam most of the damage in Brisbane and Ipswich could have been avoided by pre-release in the Wivenhoe.
I still think it's a political argument more than anything else; ie an assumption that the government would have been more likely to release water from the Wivenhoe if there were a second dam. Maybe that's the case but IMO, given the weather predictions at the time, the government should have released the water anyway, second dam or not.

The principal thrust of this website is
FLOOD PROOFING BRISBANE from damaging floods to the point of extinction.

I don't see how this is possible. If the Wivenhoe is full (properly full) then releases have to be made. Also, the Wolffdene Dam would have had no impact on either the Brisbane or the Bremmer, which caused the floods. In fact the Wivenhoe has no impact on the level of the Bremer (which flows through Ipswich) and the wall's position upstream of the Bremer/Brisbane confluence was criticised by many people in the Ipswich region because of that.

Anway, amateur hydrology is a popular pass time in SEQ and I'm as bad as the next person. Everyone's got an opinion on the subject and can usually find some evidence to back it up :O. Certainly water and flood management have been fraught with politics and dodgy deals from both sides of politics, but I think it's drawing a long bow to blame Rudd for the whole debacle. Apart from anything else it partially absolves the state government at the time, and I don't think they deserve the lifeline.

CoodaShooda 6th Aug 2013 06:20


were derived by independent academics from overseas
Thanks chuboy. I can safely disregard the findings then, as overseas 'experts' seem to have little understanding of Australia - witness one Mr McTernan. :E

I had thought it was based on a concept used overseas but that these questions were set by a group of Australian academics.

Then again, my understanding was based on an item on ABC TV yesterday, where they were claiming to be interviewing the local lady in charge of the development team.

I know, I know; I can't take anything broadcast by the ABC to be anywhere near the truth.

And it's quite reasonable to expect the Canadians to be also interested in illegal immigration, livestock export mining taxes and climate change.

So, once again, thank you for clarifying that for me.

I'll now go and try it again, to see if I come out to the left of Mao. :ok:

CoodaShooda 6th Aug 2013 06:29

That was fun. Further to the Left than labor but still not Left enough for the greens. Must try harder. :E


How much you agree with the parties

GRN 81%

ALP 67%

L/NP 39%

RJM 6th Aug 2013 07:30

From

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

http://i41.tinypic.com/2jfhi84.jpg

Here’s how close to utter disaster Brisbane came during last month’s floods. This is the Wivenhoe dam, built to save the city from flooding, at the moment its operators were desperately trying to lower the levels before it overtopped and parts of the dam gave way.

Reader Bruce explains:

Not many people have seen this picture yet. This is Wivenhoe Dam at its peak, i.e. at 191+% capacity.

Note that the main 5 floodgates are fully open. Note also the spray / white water just visible above the trees beyond the right hand end of the dam wall. This is from the spillway which is cut into the base rock and is out of sight to the right (west) of the wall you can see.

Brisbane dodged a very big wet bullet in those 24 hours, no thanks to Anna Blight and her minions in Queensland water.

This is why those floodgates were turned on full:

These calculations, yet to be tested by SEQWater, show that the urgent release from the dam of huge volumes at unprecedented rates of flow of up to 7500 cubic metres per second, when the operators were gravely concerned late on January 11 that the dam’s rising levels could trigger a collapse of the system, produced most of the flood in the Brisbane River....

Wivenhoe Dam engineering officer Graham Keegan’s ... 20-odd emails - from January 5 until the crisis at the dam had passed late the following week - become urgent in tone early on Tuesday, January 11, with notification that “we are entering conditions where dam safety overrides other concerns - although minimisation of urban flooding remains very important”.

A few hours later at 9.50am he reported “the flood situation has moved into a critical phase”.

Communications with the FOC were difficult, river levels were rising rapidly, and the dam’s flood storage capacity was diminishing.

By that evening, Keegan ...warned that the dam was expected to reach “a maximum level of 75.5m provided no further significant rainfall occurs”.

“This is 0.1m below the trigger level for (an uncontrolled discharge) - this is the major focus of the current release strategy,” Keegan said....

A collapse of Wivenhoe, which would occur from over-topping because of the inflow from the catchment exceeding outflow from the dam’s gates, would be catastrophic. An engineering paper by the dam’s operators a decade ago found that “the population at risk within a distance that would result in less than three hours’ warnings of a dam failure is between 57,000 and 244,000, depending on the time of day and nature of the breach”.

Since a safety upgrade a few years ago, keeping water below three collapsible engineered levee banks, known as “fuse plugs”, is the key to maintaining control of the dam. Should the levels rise to 75.7m and trigger a fuse plug, a very large release occurs to ease pressure, but the outpouring is not controlled by any gate - only by the speed at which the levee or bank is eroded by the water.
If a mistake was made, it was by not emptying the dam enough beforehand to accommodate the flood water that could have been predicted in a La Nina season. The frantic turning on of the floodgates that resulted - just at the wrong time - may have caused much of Brisbane’s flooding:


LEAKED email communications from a Wivenhoe Dam engineering officer underline concerns that the Brisbane River flood was mostly caused by massive releases from the dam after it had held on to water too long over a crucial 72 hours before the severe rainfall that hit the region last week.

The emails, which become increasingly urgent in tone as the situation became critical as the dam’s levels rise rapidly, were provided to The Australian by a source who said the stream of data had convinced him the river flood of Brisbane could have been largely avoided if the dam’s operators had taken action much earlier.

A commission of inquiry will examine whether the dam’s operators erred in permitting the dam’s flood compartment to be severely limited for a major rainfall event because of their strategy to let the dam’s levels rise over the weekend of January 8-9.

According to figures from Wivenhoe’s operator, SEQWater, the dam’s capacity went from 106 per cent full on the morning of Friday, January 7, to 148 per cent full on the morning of Monday, January 10, due to the limited weekend releases. Experts have said this severely compromised the dam’s ability to store additional runoff.

But how much worse it could have been. Check the photo again.

500N 6th Aug 2013 07:34

And of course the fact that people had built houses on land that had flooded previously with the expected consequences.

Worrals in the wilds 6th Aug 2013 09:56

I remember that article. It said it all; thanks for reposting it. :ok:
There was allegedly another series of aerial pictures taken closer to the wall that were never made public. I heard they showed the final level about 30cm from the bottom of the fuse plugs, though that's only hearsay.

Traffic_Is_Er_Was 6th Aug 2013 11:42

As long as it was below the fuse plugs then everything worked as planned. Move along, nothing to see here!
I saw in the Gold Coast Bulletin (or "A Minute's Silence" as I call it) recently that the GC Council had been "forced" by the courts to allow development in a known flood plain, but had then stipulated that the developer must provide within the complex 2 lifeboats with skippers on stand-by and enough rations etc for the anticipated population for 3 days (I think it was). That should keep the insurance premiums down.
Not sure if the developers are required to use a tape measure calibrated in cubits when specc'ing the lifeboats.


Edit: found the link Development must have lifeboats Local Gold Coast News | goldcoast.com.au | Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

sisemen 6th Aug 2013 15:07

Fascinating interview with Warwick McKibbin on Lateline tonight. He really puts the boot into the way that Labor has politicised the Treasury. Joe Hockey appears to be absolutely right in not trusting the process.


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