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Worrals in the wilds 6th Jan 2013 09:42

Worrals, I've heard on the ABC that the Labor Pardee (and Liberal Party too, I'm sure) strategists have marginal seats so tightly under scrutiny that they know which streets in those marginal seats to target with their teams, so I think your argument might not hold water.
No doubt. The Labor Party's biggest problem is that their 'supporters' frequently lie to them. Targeting people with electoral crap is very different from convincing them to commit fraud. Even with all the scrutiny they often get surprised. Woodridge was a key local example; a high welfare area with a lot of immigrants should have been a safe Labor seat but it wasn't.

So was Ashgrove. Every pre-election poll predicted either a Labor victory or a close call, when in fact Newman won it comfortably. I know a few swinging voters in that electorate and they got heartily sick of being targeted by teams from both sides. :ugh:In both cases the polls were completely wrong.

I question how accurate the polls are. My understanding is that they still generally rely on phone surveys and door knocking (which skews the age/gender response) and only a few hundred respondents at most. Again, a few hundred out of 90,000 is not always representative, particularly when 80% of Australians always vote the same way.

IMHO one of modern politicians' greatest failures is their slavish devotion to the polls. It drives a lot of media soundbite crap that doesn't actually mean anything, and makes them all look like a bunch of insecure desperados. They seem to assume that the whole system is far more scientific than it actually is. It's like trying to develop meaningful predictions from Twatter. :hmm:

Dark Knight 7th Jan 2013 00:24

Labor's menacing tax memo to the world
Labor's menacing taxmemo to the world

Alexander Liddington-Cox Published7:30 AM, 7 Jan 2013
Perhaps the most maddening thing about Treasurer Wayne Swan’s back down on a budget surplus for 2012-13 is it forces us to ask whethers ome of the damage that’s been inflicted on Australia’s reputation among international investors in pursuit of that goal was ever necessary.

Much has been made about how little the minerals resource rent tax will raise for government coffers and thus help deliver a surplus that's no longer coming. Indeed many column inches have been devoted to how commodity price fluctuations ensured that a reliance on this tax device to deliver in this financial year, or any year, in any meaningful sense was clearly idiotic the day it was suggested.

It was this tax device that, when announced in its originalform as the resource super profits tax, raised serious questions about Australia’s sovereign risk, particularly in the world’s financial capital, NewYork. These questions can best be addressed with a change of government, even if it’s a government that will be led by one of the most unlikeable and uninspiring leaders in Australian political history.

But in a strange way, the MRRT of 2010 is less of a problem for Australia’s international reputation as an investment destination than the lesser known changes to the withholding tax made as part of the May budget.

The government announced its intention to raise the withholding tax on foreign investors in managed funds to 15 per cent from 7.5per cent.

The argument is that these rates tend to apply to wealthy investors who can afford it, plus it would bring Australia’s rates into line with international competitors. Both these points are correct and it should be noted that this rate used to sit at a much higher 30 per cent.

So sure, the tax would be doubled, but it’s still half what it used to be. What’s the problem?

There are actually two problems here and neither can be easily addressed, no matter what Swan has conceded about the budget’s bottom line.

Firstly, it was terribly communicated to international financials – just like the RSPT, or was that the MRRT? Sources in New York’s banking industry indicate that big institutions are still somewhere between puzzled and infuriated with this meddling without consultation.

Secondly, it’s a complete about-face on what Labor was telling us in 2008. It was the then Rudd government that cut the withholding tax from 30 per cent, to 15 per cent and then 7.5 per cent, all the while making a big deal about how it was sending a message to the world that Australia is a place for investment – a terrific message, particularly when the investment world is in such a mess.

The MRRT was a bigger tax policy blunder for the country, no question. But global financials were concerned about it on behalf of their mining clients, almost all of which were always going to be able to meet their obligations, mining tax or not. Besides, the swift amendments made by the freshly installed Prime Minister Julia Gillard via closed talks with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata ensured that the thing wouldn't raise much more than dime.

By contrast, the withholding tax changes mean that these financial firms have to go to clients across their organisation and tell them,“Hey, remember when we said you should invest your cash in Australian infrastructure and construction because they’ve got their head screwed on straight? We were wrong and your return is seriously compromised. Oh, and if you're still keen at 15 per cent, the Australian dollar is in a terrible mess."

It’s embarrassing for them. The spectre of the RSPT just reinforces the questions in their minds about Australia’s reliability.

Granted, international financials have rightly been brought down a few rungs after the global financial crisis. They can no longer expectto get everything they want from governments around the world or demand to have a direct line to relevant ministers on minute policy details before they’remade public.

But the unconvincing performance of Australia’s economy, the primary reason for our budget deficit, illustrates how desperately we need international investment.

For that we need the confidence of major multinational financial institutions and a proper discussion about how to fix the budget’s structural problems, rather than random tinkering with tax rates and a shuffling of spending forwards and backwards.

Between the MRRT and withholding tax changes, the first has been significantly weakened. Between the ALP and the Coalition, the judgement is yet to come – but the withholding tax decision is unlikely to do Labor any favours.

Alexander Liddington-Cox is BusinessSpectator's North America Correspondent.

Any further comment would be superfluous?

Andu 7th Jan 2013 03:40

Eileen currently being interviewed on Sky. Quite obviously the word the McTurdan spin team decided was the catchword of the day is "communidee". She mispronounced that one word twenty bloody times in as many seconds.

Am I the only one who shouts abuse at the screen when the woman appears on screen?

Captain Dart 7th Jan 2013 03:51

Probably, the rest of us just reach for the 'mute' button.

Krudd was dreadful to listen to, but her Lllayba Pardee accent in that braying voice takes the cake.

Worrals in the wilds 7th Jan 2013 03:55

Am I the only one who shouts abuse at the screen when the woman appears on screen?
I regularly shout abuse at Roxon when she's on telly. My neighbours probably think I'm in an abusive relationship with someone called Nicola. :ouch::}

Croozin 7th Jan 2013 04:06

I'm so glad to see that it's not just me. My long-suffering wife, on (yet again) hearing me shout "God, I hate the sound of that woman's voice!!!" replies, with her irony meter off the clock: "Really, darling? Gee, I didn't know that."

I can't believe Gillard's spin team hasn't told her that her poll ratings would almost certainly go up five points overnight if she dropped the fake - for fake it is - "woirking (sic) class" accent.

So I suppose I should close in saying "Keep it up, EilEEn."

Fliegenmong 7th Jan 2013 04:06

Andu 7th Jan 2013 04:15

From the Piers Ackerman blog. (For those of you not familiar with Verity of Perth, she comes up with quite good poems relatively often.)

Two lovely weeks with family and friends
but the Christmas season has come to an end
And during that time we were all TV free

Not a sound nor I sight did I have time to see
That horrible woman whose voice shreds my nerves
I pray she will get the smack she deserves

We’ve watched her behaviour in shock and disgust
And we have to replace her with someone we trust
Tony Abbott’s the man we want in her place
For Julia Gillard’s a bloody disgrace

When I see her I just have to walk from the room
But soon she’ll be told to fly off on her broom
I far too polite to call her a bitch

But I WILL go so far as to call her a witch
and a few other things sometimes enter my head
that I privately think of Ms Gillard The Red

How are we going to get through this year
and the horrible lies we’ll undoubtedly hear
The rudness, the shrieking, the nasty smug pride
This is a woman I cannot abide

With the help of the media they might even get in
But I tell you if Labor by any chance win
I’ll be the one who’ll be taking a boat
to a place in the world that is very remote

But on second thoughts - NO - I will take up the fight
and pursue them from office with all of my might
There’ll be plenty like me who feel just the same
Who are desperate to put an end to their game

Ms. Gillard The Red we cannot endure
We’ll do all that we can this nation to cure
Each day she remains things can only get worse
We must put and end to this terrible curse

She and her cohorts will have to depart
Their behaviour in office has broken our hearts
We have to make sure that it comes to an end
and long years in the desert they surely must spend

Verity of Perth (Reply)
Mon 07 Jan 13 (02:22pm)

Capt Casper 7th Jan 2013 07:46

Love this letter to the Editor - The Australian - 4 Jan.

Labor ministers are like my Christmas lights; half of them don't work and the ones that do aren't very bright.
Fabio Scalia, Winsor, Vic.

Captain Sand Dune 7th Jan 2013 08:02

FORMER Speaker Peter Slipper could face the possibility of a jail sentence if found guilty of offences after being summonsed to appear in court over allegations he rorted his Cabcharge entitlements.
After an investigation lasting nearly nine months, the Australian Federal Police said it had served Mr Slipper with a summons "in relation to three offences of Dishonestly Causing a Risk of a Loss to the Commonwealth".
The alleged offences would breach the Commonwealth Criminal Code, if proven, and carry a maximum penalty of five years imprisonment.
The legal setback for Mr Slipper comes just a few weeks after the former Speaker had a major victory in the Federal Court when allegations of sexual harassment were thrown out.
Those allegations were brought by a former adviser, James Ashby, who also alleged that he witnessed Mr Slipper signing blank Cabcharge dockets during several visits to Sydney in early 2012.
The AFP, after an initial investigation, referred matters to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.
In a statement, the DPP said it could "confirm that the AFP have sworn an information and summons which alleges three offences against section 135.1(5) of the Criminal Code (Cth) in relation to allegations concerning the use of Cabcharges by Mr Slipper".
The DPP said it would be "inappropriate to comment further" as the matter was before the Canberra Magistrates Court.
The former Speaker has been forced to repay more than $20,000 during the past decade in relation to family travel and other entitlement perks.
Is his slipperiness (is that a word?!) running out?

Clare Prop 7th Jan 2013 08:14

I guess a lousy 50 grand from N. Toxin wasn't enough to make this one go away either.

Andu 7th Jan 2013 10:27

What's the bet they'll find some obscure legal technicality surrounding those three charges making them void or not able to be proceeded with and Slippery Pete will remain true to his name?

That, or a very mild slap on the wrist involving repayment of a minor amount of money, about one squillionth of the amount he's rorted over the years in expense claims?

Fliegenmong 7th Jan 2013 12:00

That, or a very mild slap on the wrist involving repayment of a minor amount of money, about one squillionth of the amount he's rorted over the years in expense claims?

Regrettably I reckon you're right Andu, the man is a disgrace....has been for years.....the difference being that when he was a disgrace as a Liberal party member that was fine.....and fully endorsed by the Liberals.....he freely resigned as a member so as to retain his new found position as speaker......because like any polly , either side, he's only in it for himself....Slipper, for me, sums up what the Liberals are all about............which is essentially what the Laborites are all about..........and regrettably it ain't about betterment of country...but short term gain, essentially political KPIs!......

Never forget the Mad monk said to the independents "I'll do anything for your support", never did he say "I need your support for the betterment of the Country" an amatuer gaff, conveniently glossed over by the 'Main stream media'...no surprise there! ........ It would not surprise at all if slipper still attends BBQs at Abbott's Humble abode :rolleyes:

Clare Prop 7th Jan 2013 12:55

Can anyone confirm that one of the conditions of the Liberal and National merger was that sitting members would not be challenged, in which case Slipper's pre selection was guaranteed?

Buster Hyman 7th Jan 2013 12:58

Never forget the Mad monk said to the independents "I'll do anything for your support"
Makes you wonder how far the red witch bent over to get their support AND the watermelons... :yuk:

Croozin 7th Jan 2013 19:42

Can anyone confirm that one of the conditions of the Liberal and National merger was that sitting members would not be challenged, in which case Slipper's pre selection was guaranteed?
I believe you're right, Clare P. As I recall, there had been a pretty serious move in the local branch to get rid of him for some time, (led, or at least actively supported, by the local paper?**), but head office overruled them.

Worrals' insider comments about the problem children within the Qld Nats (and Libs?) at State level might have had some bearing on this matter. Perhaps Worrals could comment?

** If my recollections about the local paper are correct, it's apparently the opposite in Rob Oakeshott's electorate, where the local Port Macquarie rag just lurrrves him to bits and he can do no wrong.

1DC 7th Jan 2013 20:00

Looking at you Weather forecasts from here in the UK, if you are still in the fire fighting business BUSTERthen be careful during the next few weeks..

Sorry about the thread drift but I know he is a contributor here..

Croozin 7th Jan 2013 20:02

The article below would seem to confirm your comment, Clare Prop.

Monday, 07 January 201
Tony Abbott was wrong to defend Slipper

Peter Slipper had his pre-selection for the 2010 election guaranteed. One of the conditions of the merger of the Queensland National and Liberal parties was that sitting members would not be challenged.

From that point, 26 July, 2008, Peter Slipper stopped trying. He knew he was guaranteed another term. He is a grub, a drunk, a sexual predator and a reputed thief. He has no place in the Federal Parliament in my view.

Tony Abbott could not have disendorsed him if he tried. But he should have known about his proclivities., I did as a radio show host and a former resident of the Sunshine Coast. I broadcasted regular editorials about the grub Slipper on 4BC. He had then and he has now no place in our parliamentary system.

Tony is going to have to deal with this head on. The charges Slipper apparently faces relate to his actions while an endorsed, sleepy, often pissed member of the LNP team in the Federal Parliament.

This article has been sent to me today by a few very pro Labor people, obviously the Labor Party is backgrounding with this sort of stuff. And it is true. Tony was wrong to defend Slipper, no one did the wierd travel and purchases that Slipper did. It's indefensible.
Tony Abbott was wrong to defend Slipper - Michael Smith News

Buster Hyman 7th Jan 2013 20:06

Oh, I rarely get on this thread 1DC... :p

I was asked to go to Portland in VIC for 4 days yesterday, but couldn't go. Our truck is on Strike Team duty this week so who knows? They're getting hammered in Tassie & NSW at the moment though. :(

Worrals in the wilds 7th Jan 2013 20:14

Good luck to your guys. :ok:

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