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2023 is going to be worse, 2024 worse still

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2023 is going to be worse, 2024 worse still

Old 18th Apr 2022, 02:44
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2023 is going to be worse, 2024 worse still

Peter Zeihan seems to predict that some bad things are going to happen globaly.

Oil to hit $200 USD per barrel
Russia if it suceeds taking Ukraine will invade Poland
Worldwide fertiliser supply chain has already stopped - food production will fall by 25%
Global famine to start by the 4th quarter of 2022
Russia to collapse
China to collapse under a debt bomb then an aging population bomb
African to have mass starvation as crops fail without fertiliser

While I think he hasn't taken into account all variables (fertilise free crop production, hydroponics, bio/synthetic fuels and humans ability to adapt and come up with novel solutions to problems etc), if even half his prodictions come true, the next few years will be very chaotic.

Theres too many videos but will post the most salient





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Old 18th Apr 2022, 06:15
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Predicting The End of Times has always been lucrative work for those able to effectively capitalize their prognostications!
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 06:28
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Originally Posted by nomorecatering View Post
Russia if it suceeds taking Ukraine will invade Poland
Will that be before or after the events in his "How Russia Will Die" video play out ?

If you predict enough random scenarios, you're bound to get one right eventually.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 06:40
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Let's be honest. Everything has been downhill since the millennium. Those of us born between 1945 and 1960 really hit the jackpot in every way. The luckiest generation in history as well as the one that buggered things up big style.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 08:42
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Why do all these predictions somehow remind me of the fuss over 'Deep Thought' and the proposed strike of 'Philosophers and Soothsayers' in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy? Who is playing the part of Vroomfondel?
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 08:44
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....So no mention of the England cricket team winning the Ashes?
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 08:59
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Exactly who is "Peter Zeihan"? How is he in any way qualified to may meaningful forecasts?

I'm sure that at some stage someone (not on this forum I'm sure) will come out of the woodwork and claim that Nostradamus predicted the Russian war against Ukraine, and that the world will end next Tuesday!

Two words. Absolute tosh!
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 09:06
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The year, that piece of dog excrement Putin and his cronies are tortured in public, then hung up on meat hooks to die, will be a good year for me. An eye for an eye I say.

I just hope I live long enough to see justice come to pass.

Last edited by RichardJones; 18th Apr 2022 at 13:48.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 09:09
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Originally Posted by Wetstart Dryrun View Post
....So no mention of the England cricket team winning the Ashes?

Nope, thank goodness. That would be a travesty.

Peter Zeihan's math is sound, his statistics are well-sourced, and the logic of his conclusions is compelling. Zeihan projected an invasion of Ukraine by Russia at this time, 8 years ago, his logic was sound then, and the action since then is consistent with his analysis way back when. It appears odd that he can tie in as much as he does to demographics, but it follows reasonably. There are confounding factors that exist, and most of those generally improve the outcome more than degrade it further, so perhaps we will all be happy campers. He is predicting a severe tightening of food supply from the middle of this year for a lot of the world, and the means by which he arrives at that conclusion is hard to argue with, the figures support that, and it was starting to shape up before Putin medivac went full feral.

Interesting to see he predicts an economic collapse of China in the near future, I have had the same position but based on other reasons, but looking at his figures, they end up underlying about half of my concerns but are enough by themselves to give a wild ride soon.

Every war has at it's core economics, they may be cloaked in religious terms or nationalistic fervor, (just like the ashes) but they almost always come down to economics. Russia is slightly different, there is economic opportunism involved (Donbas oil/gas discoveries) but they are also still paranoid from the hemp they have been smoking for the last 800 years.

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Will that be before or after the events in his "How Russia Will Die" video play out ? If you predict enough random scenarios, you're bound to get one right eventually.
Generally a safe bet, but Zeihan's central premise is demographic statistics based and appears to be predictive of macro events. He did predict Russia invading Ukraine in 2014, and predicted an attack in 2022 for rational reasons that came to pass. He isn't Nostradamus, he is a guy who has a set of figures that show structural trends that seem to be sound. I agree with his food security issues, and the economy of China, so i worry about positive bias.


Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Exactly who is "Peter Zeihan"? How is he in any way qualified to may meaningful forecasts? I'm sure that at some stage someone (not on this forum I'm sure) will come out of the woodwork and claim that Nostradamus predicted the Russian war against Ukraine and that the world will end next Tuesday! Two words. Absolute tosh!
Well, Peter Zeihan has a reasonable experience to be talking about demographic matters and making assessments on the consequences of medium-term effects arising from the demographics. None of his analyses is convoluted or contrived. It is compelling to read, and to watch, and to listen to. It could also b absolute tosh, but it makes more sense than England receiving the ashes.

I have all of his books, and have watched all of the stuff he does, and went and saw him do a TEDtalk a long time back.
The following are just a collection of some of his presentations, the one to the US farmers in 2019 was possibly one of his better works. His take on the Ukraine war and on Russia is worth finding for yourself, but before you look at what he says there, it is definitely worth the minor inconvenience to watch some of the attached presentations to understand what he is basing his projections on. The maths is sound, the statistics (other than the huge corrections that have to be made on occasions by Russia and China as their statistics are so bad +/- 100M people etc... China, +/-10M males in a particular group in Russia... etc... Anyway, grab a beer, forget about certainties such as the ashes in the possession of Australia, and watch. After this, if you think that he has any perspective, then the last 6 weeks' presentations on Ukraine are really worth the beer and a whiskey.

His earlier projections have a variance from what has occurred, but mostly that arises from the unknown unknowns at that time, one of which was the comment a year ago of the USA shrinking the sphere of interest it has globally, and we have seen that with Russia's attack on Ukraine, the withdrawal from an interest in the world, NATO, Europe etc have altered, and that has happened as the US has considered that the strategic position of the US is also threatened, which it is. Everyone in the world is effectively threatened by Putin medivac's aggression, and if not stopped in Ukraine, then he will continue with his threats to extend deep into Europe, and that is not a fun scenario.































https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-zeihan-01b2b059

https://www.nsb.com/speakers/peter-zeihan/
https://www.gdaspeakers.com/speaker/peter-zeihan/
https://www.harpercollins.com/blogs/...01912132014973
https://www.metisstrategy.com/interview/peter-zeihan/


PS: He isn't a card carrying. member of AUPSLOTP





Last edited by fdr; 18th Apr 2022 at 10:21.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 09:11
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Originally Posted by Wetstart Dryrun View Post
....So no mention of the England cricket team winning the Ashes?
I believe heís endeavouring to keep his predictions plausibleÖ
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 09:18
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Let's be honest. Everything has been downhill since the millennium. Those of us born between 1945 and 1960 really hit the jackpot in every way. The luckiest generation in history as well as the one that buggered things up big style.
This is a very common mistake. If you are interested in the scientific research of it I recommend you to look into the work of Prof Steven Pinker from Harvard and his analysis of the universal decline of violence and other threats over the course of history.

We are actually living in the most peaceful and safest time in the history of mankind. The reason why we think the opposite are among other factors age lifecycle changes and high consumption of negative news in combination with the availability bias.

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Old 18th Apr 2022, 09:49
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It's some internet thing to have all those doom sayers all over the place. They want attention, clicks, advertisements and money.
It's about time to think about how internet companies (and billionaires in their back) manipulate the masses including their ongoing radicalisation. Sometimes bordering on high treason for my taste if you look at the Capitol riots.
It's a moment for some smart political and diplomatic management so watch who you vote for (and who funds them).
Don't take the easy promise.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 09:53
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Seeing I was beaten by Radeng to the Vroomfondel and Majikthise quote, I may add The Amazing Criswell, for those who have seen Ed Wood, or know of his work.

I have friends and family in Poland, I would love to see Putin try his hand at invading. The Good old US of A have sent quite a few troops, equipment, etc there. I am sure once the Russian T80's(if he has any left) go up against the Abrams M1's he will see the folly of his endeavour. Of course he has to get Ukraine first, which is not going too well
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 10:14
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Entropy - all is entropy!!
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 10:15
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Wonderful infomercial for someone who is not either a politician or (as far as I know) has no family links to Nostradamus .... carry on folks!
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 10:34
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I'm not sure that the Chinese government will be too upset about their aging population starving. It solves a lot of problems...
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 11:15
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YouTube is also full of videos by alleged authorities, claiming to be full of plausible explanations of why the Earth is Flat!
Very lucrative it is too.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 11:25
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I know this is jet-blast, but really?!
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 11:38
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I'm not sure that the Chinese government will be too upset about their aging population starving. It solves a lot of problems...
They abandoned their one child policy already.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 12:51
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Well this is new!

...someone predicting the future and saying it'll all be bad

I don't think that's ever happened before
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