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Afghanistan Withdrawal

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Afghanistan Withdrawal

Old 25th Aug 2021, 16:48
  #201 (permalink)  

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Think it will get worse before it gets better, if the term "better" can even vaguely be used to describe your prediction LowNSlow, with which I of course, concur !
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 21:00
  #202 (permalink)  
 
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Pretty interesting views on the current Afganistan situatıon, I'd say:

Nancy Lindisfarne & Jonathan Neale: Afghanistan: The End of the Occupation.

Sarah Chayes: The Ides of August

Key points:

Originally Posted by Lindisfarne & Neale
A lot of nonsense about Afghanistan is being written in Britain and the United States. Most of this nonsense hides a number of important truths.

First, the Taliban have defeated the United States.

Second, the Taliban have won because they have more popular support.

Third, this is not because most Afghans love the Taliban. It is because the American occupation has been unbearably cruel and corrupt.

Fourth, the War on Terror has also been politically defeated in the United States. The majority of Americans are now in favor of withdrawal from Afghanistan and against any more foreign wars.

Fifth, this is a turning point in world history. The greatest military power in the world has been defeated by the people of a small, desperately poor country. This will weaken the power of the American empire all over the world.

Sixth, the rhetoric of saving Afghan women has been widely used to justify the occupation, and many feminists in Afghanistan have chosen the side of the occupation. The result is a tragedy for feminism.
Originally Posted by Sarah Chayes
Americans like to think of ourselves as having valiantly tried to bring democracy to Afghanistan. Afghans, so the narrative goes, just weren’t ready for it, or didn’t care enough about democracy to bother defending it. Or we’ll repeat the cliche that Afghans have always rejected foreign intervention; we’re just the latest in a long line.

I was there. Afghans did not reject us. They looked to us as exemplars of democracy and the rule of law. They thought that’s what we stood for.

And what did we stand for? What flourished on our watch? Cronyism, rampant corruption, a Ponzi scheme disguised as a banking system, designed by U.S. finance specialists during the very years that other U.S. finance specialists were incubating the crash of 2008. A government system where billionaires get to write the rules.

Is that American democracy?

(...)


How many times did you read stories about the Afghan security forces’ steady progress? How often, over the past two decades, did you hear some U.S. official proclaim that the Taliban’s eye-catching attacks in urban settings were signs of their “desperation” and their “inability to control territory?” How many heart-warming accounts did you hear about all the good we were doing, especially for women and girls?

Who were we deluding? Ourselves?

What else are we deluding ourselves about?
On the origin of Talibans:

Originally Posted by Lindisfarne & Neale
Outside Afghanistan, there is a great deal of confusion about stereotypes of the Taliban elaborated over the last twenty-five years. But think carefully when you hear the stereotypes that they are feudal, brutal and primitive. These are people with laptops, who have been negotiating with the Americans in Qatar for the last fourteen years.

The Taliban are not the product of medieval times. They are the product of some of the worst times of the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century. If they look backward in some ways to an imagined better time, that is not surprising. But they have been moulded by life under aerial bombardment, refugee camps, communism, the War of Terror, enhanced interrogation, climate change, internet politics and the spiralling inequality of neoliberalism. They live, like everyone else, now.
Originally Posted by Sarah Chayes
You may have heard that the Taliban first emerged in the early 1990s, in Kandahar. That is incorrect. I conducted dozens of conversations and interviews over the course of years, both with actors in the drama and ordinary people who watched events unfold in Kandahar and in Quetta, Pakistan. All of them said the Taliban first emerged in Pakistan.

The Taliban were a strategic project of the Pakistani military intelligence agency, the ISI. It even conducted market surveys in the villages around Kandahar, to test the label and the messaging. “Taliban” worked well. The image evoked was of the young students who apprenticed themselves to village religious leaders. They were known as sober, studious, and gentle. These Taliban, according to the ISI messaging, had no interest in government. They just wanted to get the militiamen who infested the city to stop extorting people at every turn in the road.

Both label and message were lies.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 12:09
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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Lethal terrorist attack

Lethal terrorist attack expected within hours , Kabul airport. Fake news I say. Taliban is disciplined enough not to allow that until September. Just another fake news supporting even earlier runaway..
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 14:09
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Well wot a surprise. All talk and no action - if you could even count starting a thread as action.

What's really interesting is how mute the GOP leadership have been on all of this. Why is that, do you think?
Depends on where you seek your news

https://www.foxnews.com/search-resul...%20afghanistan
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 14:27
  #205 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bueno Hombre View Post
Lethal terrorist attack expected within hours, Kabul airport. Fake news I say.
We all hope it's fake. But we don't have any evidence either way. Just as you don't.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 14:54
  #206 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bueno Hombre View Post
Lethal terrorist attack expected within hours , Kabul airport. Fake news I say. Taliban is disciplined enough not to allow that until September. Just another fake news supporting even earlier runaway..
The problem is that in addition to the Taliban there is also ISIS-K, which apparently hate the Taliban for being too soft in their interpretation of Islam. The attack is expected to come from ISIS, not the Taliban. In fact, there are reports the Taliban are cooperating with the US and UK forces to try to prevent that attack.

Later edit: There has been an explosion, possibly a suicide attack.


Last edited by MikeSnow; 26th Aug 2021 at 15:11.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 15:13
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bueno Hombre View Post
Lethal terrorist attack expected within hours , Kabul airport. Fake news I say. Taliban is disciplined enough not to allow that until September. Just another fake news supporting even earlier runaway..
Comments now?
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 16:35
  #208 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow View Post
The problem is that in addition to the Taliban there is also ISIS-K, which apparently hate the Taliban for being too soft in their interpretation of Islam. The attack is expected to come from ISIS, not the Taliban. In fact, there are reports the Taliban are cooperating with the US and UK forces to try to prevent that attack.

Later edit: There has been an explosion, possibly a suicide attack.

https://twitter.com/PentagonPresSec/...88975917453313
Last nights BBC News carried an interview with Frank Gardner, a journalist with a well deserved reputation for accuracy. He profiled ISIS K and said an attack of this nature was almost certain for the reasons you state above. Seemingly both groups have been engaged in violent firefights with each other for some time and this attack would conform with their M.O. Not a large group either, he said around 2000 but very extreme.

There's always the possibly the BBC were broadcasting fake news of course...just to fill in the the air time.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 16:43
  #209 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
Last nights BBC News carried an interview with Frank Gardner, a journalist with a well deserved reputation for accuracy. He profiled ISIS K and said an attack of this nature was almost certain for the reasons you state above. Seemingly both groups have been engaged in violent firefights with each other for some time and this attack would conform with their M.O. Not a large group either, he said around 2000 but very extreme.

There's always the possibly the BBC were broadcasting fake news of course...just to fill in the the air time.
I also saw the interview with Frank Gardner. Frightening to think IS-K regard the Taliban as not being radical or extreme enough.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 16:54
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone heard anthing about anti-aircraft defenses? Are attacks on low flying approach and departures consider to be a threat? I am sure Taliban would not want any but they aren't the only players in the area.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 17:01
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bare Plane View Post
Has anyone heard anthing about anti-aircraft defenses? Are attacks on low flying approach and departures consider to be a threat? I am sure Taliban would not want any but they aren't the only players in the area.
There was footage on yesterday's TV news of an A400M departing Kabul shedding loads of flares, so clearly the threat is being taken seriously.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 19:23
  #212 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghani...on-11629976397
Over 60 dead. Sad news.
No surprise, though, what with the chaos of the transition between Taliban and previous government.
More gaps, and wider ones, for IS-K to slip through.
I'd say they just sent a message to the Taliban: you haven't won yet.
Originally Posted by NinthAce
I also saw the interview with Frank Gardner. Frightening to think IS-K regard the Taliban as not being radical or extreme enough.
The ISIS crowd in Syria and Iraq were certainly well of the charts in terms of being True Believers at the far edge of extreme.
This lot are their Khorasan regional franchise.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 20:54
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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Taliban I can sort of accept an uneasy truce with - their country, their rules unpalatable as some of them may be. ISIS however, are murderers without conscience. Why can we not pull out and then spend years targeting them?
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 21:58
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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People don't remember Obama saying much of great consequence, but they should have listened when he advised "Don't underestimate Joe's ability to screw up." His faith was well placed.
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Old 26th Aug 2021, 23:52
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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One has to ask:

"Is it ever possible for radical Islamic states to live in peace with western nominally Christian democratic states while staying with their principles within their borders? ISIS have shown it isn't - at least for them...

The West then have to, despite the confrontation with their moral principles, deal with ISIS and similar Islamic fundamentalists: I suspect that the only way in the end is the same way as smallpox or polio or TB infections - exterminate them. Because it then becomes a case of "them or us"..
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Old 27th Aug 2021, 00:34
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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radeng.................. Would just say that there are an awful of them to "exterminate"... What happens if they fight back??
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Old 27th Aug 2021, 04:05
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bare Plane View Post
Has anyone heard anthing about anti-aircraft defenses? Are attacks on low flying approach and departures consider to be a threat? I am sure Taliban would not want any but they aren't the only players in the area.
Someone today (8/26) - I think CENTCOM Commander MacKenzie at his briefing - was asked that question (specifically mentioning MANPADs) and said they are absolutely surveilling the approach and departure paths for any "unusual" activity. I think the term ISR (Intel, Surveillance, Reconnaisance) was used.

I think one quote was approximately, "Today was already bad enough - we don't want 400 people going down in an aircraft incident."
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Old 27th Aug 2021, 08:19
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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The whole business is horrible ... and despite what we've already seen/lived through, shocking.
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Old 27th Aug 2021, 09:31
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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Not normally a hawk in these matters, but maybe IS need reminding that an awful lot of their fighters are in captivity and attacks of this type might bring a response from the SS book of ungentlemanly warfare. Could be done on the QT and emphatically denied.
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Old 27th Aug 2021, 10:10
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Not normally a hawk in these matters, but maybe IS need reminding that an awful lot of their fighters are in captivity and attacks of this type might bring a response from the SS book of ungentlemanly warfare. Could be done on the QT and emphatically denied.
ISIS aren't bothered about their own losses or poor treatment. Hence the suicide attacks.

As radeng suggested above they are like a disease that will always come back unless entirely exterminated. And that isn't going to happen.

As we are now finding with Covid 19, ISIS will always be with us and we must learn to live with it.
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