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Are things worse than we could have imagined

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Are things worse than we could have imagined

Old 20th Sep 2020, 08:47
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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It's been suggested that wearing masks should become a permanent state even after the virus has disappeared as it's 'good practice'. If that becomes the case then it's only a short step to mandating the wearing of hi-vis, hard hats, safety goggles and body armour at all times 'just in case'

I'm sure that there are many people who would actually think that a good idea while there will be others who aren't afraid of their own shadow.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 08:52
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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. Why not quote the death rate of those who have caught the virus (circa 11% in the U.K.)?
And made up statistics like that evoke conspiracy theories and mass protests against autocratic lockdowns and containment. From 'Nature'
"Now, numerous studies — using a range of methods — estimate that in many countries some 5 to 10 people will die for every 1,000 people with COVID-19. “The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge around 0.5–1%,” says Russell".
There's no real outlet for protest against the suspension of democracy, (aside from joining grubby conspiracy theorists and deniers on protests) but pressure is building, and I think governments know it. On the individual level, people push against it by deliberately contravening mandated covid rules, whereas if they were treated like adults, as in Sweden, compliance would be better.

Here's a shocker for you - about 600,000 people die in the UK every year! People die!. It's a pity there's not been a full study of consequential deaths and reduced life expectancy from lockdown, economic devastation, reduced life chances and quality from eg suspended education, inactivity, alcoholism etc etc, and factor these to compare against lost life years die to covid. I'm quite sure they would dwarf covid lost life years. (and I use "lost life years" advisedly, because just tallying deaths is wildly simplistic, given that covid deaths are on average within a year of death anyway, whereas all ages are affected by the insane reaction to it.)

Last edited by Joe le Taxi; 20th Sep 2020 at 09:10.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:00
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Wife and I flew EZY Gatwick to Scotland and return last week, only around 30 seats total booked each sector 10 days previous.

On the days both flights were full, Covid procedures were - face masks, boarding by seat rows (1 to 18 then rear) and no catering. We were in middle and aisle rows, with 29 inch pitch that is 18 to 20 pax seated within 2 metres of each of us, including two with mask exceptions and the guy in our window seat was huge. Boarding and deplane were the usual scramble with jostling in the aisle and backtracking to recover carry-on from the overheads, we felt most uncomfortable.

The UK government Covid procedures for airline cabins are very flimsy and issued as guidance only. I believe that sensible firm rules on spacing (ie centre seats empty), movement around cabin, perhaps cc to act as loading and toilet 'monitors' etc would encourage more people to travel again and they should be prepared to pay say 30% more to travel with a 70% load factor.

As it is we would typically fly to Europe every other month for recreation but will not be flying again anytime soon without some tightening of the rules.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:04
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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You mean excess deaths?

July figures showed an increase of 7.5% in the UK according to this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53592881
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:10
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-de...io-in-england/
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:12
  #26 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Joe le Taxi View Post
And made up statistics like that evoke conspiracy theories and mass protests against autocratic lockdowns and containment.

Here's a shocker for you - about 600,000 people die in the UK every year! People die!.
How have you deduced it is a ‘made up statistic’?

And thanks for pointing out that people die. Never knew that. Gosh, wondered what happened to the grandparents! Maybe you can explain why this death rate you speak of was 113% higher than normal in April 2020?
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:27
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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It’ll be fine, but it’ll take time

Aviation will continue, people will go on holiday, business people will return (in reduced numbers due to actually enjoying the previously unthinkable -remote working!) and pilots and cabin crew and engineers and associated industries will all have a bright future (albeit there will be far fewer for an extended period of time).

Now for how that will happen; This enforced ‘downtime’ will sort out the weak from the strong, economically of course, but also in terms of strength of leadership.

Following every crisis there are winners; often the ones who were forced (or led the way) into the most radical and transformational changes.

The thing I wonder about more is how long this will take.

On a human level; careers, families, mortgages etc, etc it’s going to be a rough ride. Someone on the thread mentioned ‘..before we all start piloting Asda vans’. You’ll be lucky. Come 1st November and when a good proportion of the 9.6 million people from 1.2 million UK companies currently on furlough are made permanently redundant (I’m in the thick of this restructuring in ‘general uk industry) at the moment so I do understand the reality) jobs are going to be like rocking horse poop.

Time to work out what transferable skills are required to surf this tsunami.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:34
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Here's a shocker for you - about 600,000 people die in the UK every year! People die!. It's a pity there's not been a full study of consequential deaths and reduced life expectancy from lockdown, economic devastation, reduced life chances and quality from eg suspended education, inactivity, alcoholism etc etc, and factor these to compare against lost life years die to covid. I'm quite sure they would dwarf covid lost life years. (and I use "lost life years" advisedly, because just tallying deaths is wildly simplistic, given that covid deaths are on average within a year of death anyway, whereas all ages are affected by the insane reaction to it.)

Perfectly reasonable and rational, but lets not cherry pick the maths to win a point. Whatever the mortality rates might be, nobody disputes covid is fiercely contagious and left unchecked a lot of people will get it. A significant number will require hospital care, and many intensive care. (remember flattening the curve?). Once you have overwhelmed the intensive care capacity, you have a third mortality increase to factor in...the number of excess deaths caused by non-Covid related illnesses requiring, but not getting intensive care. Way back in March an Italian doctor in the thick of Europe's first hotspot, where their intensive care system was overwhelmed, put up a graphic showing the comparison of mortality rates of typical intensive care cases (accidents, some pregnancies, many diseases etc etc) as ratio of those that survived with access to intensive care and those that did not. It sent a pretty clear message, as you would expect.

I have no issue with a rational discussion re comparing mortality rates from covid and mortality rates from the effects of lockdown, but lets include all the factors shall we? I know many people who work in the UK NHS and trust me thay have been through a pretty torrid time with it, and there is going to be a lot of fall out with PTSD in the NHS in years to come. And that was with a - thus far - successful "curve management". Left unchecked the NHS would have been overwhelmed and then you really would have seen mortality rates skyrocket, from all sorts of causes, because of the lack of availability of intensive care.

Maybe where we are now, that is no longer a prospect, because of track and trace, improved care, maybe even a reduction in dose contagion - who knows.

But I struggle to blame politicians for not being willing to take that sort of gamble with people's lives just yet.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 09:54
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Climate change. Automation. Razor thin margins. Declining economies. Anti-globalisation. Do we honestly think the future is bright for aviation even without COVID?

If you're smart, you'll be learning something, anything else, whilst you're downroute. You'll be squirrelling away some money and not over-leveraging yourself 6x your salary on a house that's going to devalue.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 10:17
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Growing world population, growing middle class starting to (air) travel, growing number of mega cities. Globally connected production chains and businesses. It's not all that bad for air travel for sure. Just look at air cargo to get the idea. Corona is the problem not anything else. Whenever it is contained the market will slowly return.
Has the industry grown too fast in the past? Possibly yes.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 10:20
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Ascoteer

Agreed. This is the beginning of the mismanaged decline of capitalism. Soft-focus Fascism on the rise. Soon to become a more brutal version. Your privilege is rapidly evaporating
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 10:34
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Joe le Taxi

Yes, most people survive covid (some admittedly permanently disabled, but we don't know how many yet so lets forget about them). Yes most people dying of covid are old - but same for most causes of death. Many people however are dying of covid who are not old, and who would otherwise have several decades of life left, enough to push the average YLL way way beyond a year. The impact of those deaths is what we should be most concerned about, they are the ones still economically active, the ones with jobs, careers, mortgages, young children, or not, anymore.

So, where did you get your average from, or did you make it up?
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 11:40
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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,
. University of California - BerkeleySummary:With over 170,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, and 1,000 more each day, America's life expectancy may appear to be plummeting. But in estimating the magnitude of the pandemic, demographers have found that COVID-19 is likely to shorten the average US lifespan in 2020 by only about a year.
or..Using a Italy/UK YLL chart which you can find in the Economist, and plugging in average age of death as 85, and average number of pre existing conditions as 2.7, a victims lost years looks like 2-3 to me, and that was from a date when huge numbers of deaths were ascribed to covid, when in reality the cause was something else, or there were co-morbities.. but whether it's one (which I can't find right now) or 2.5 years, the point remains that people who die from covid have, ON AVERAGE, in the vast majority of cases, already lived most of their lives, but the people affected by the "cure/mitigation" have decades left to live, in what are now reduced means, and that has a whole gamut of consequences for them, (not just reduced life expectancy from all other causes). And here's an actuarial mind-bender - in uk, and particularly Scotland, the average age at death from covid (85) is higher than the overall life expectancy!


Still don't like the odds? - Almost 2/3 of UK males are overweight or worse, as can be seen by walking down any high Street. The positive scope for personal responsibility there, is absolutely immense, but it seems to destroy your body that way is just fine and dandy, by the powers that be.

Last edited by Joe le Taxi; 20th Sep 2020 at 13:12.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 14:59
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by topradio View Post
It's been suggested that wearing masks should become a permanent state even after the virus has disappeared as it's 'good practice'. If that becomes the case then it's only a short step to mandating the wearing of hi-vis, hard hats, safety goggles and body armour at all times 'just in case'

I'm sure that there are many people who would actually think that a good idea while there will be others who aren't afraid of their own shadow.
Wish I'd thought of that when my four sons were growing up, would have saved a lot of time waiting in A&E and x-ray. From memory, I was still transporting all of them to A&E into their early 20's

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Old 20th Sep 2020, 22:40
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Shall we also ban sandals and flip-flops and mandate wearing protective shoes with steel toe caps at all times to tackle foot injury? And that will also alleviate the burden on the emergency rooms as people who have dropped something heavy on their feet and how have fractured bones will no longer be an issue!

The current situation is an extraordinary and temporary one, that's something which many people seem to forget about. There's no "new normal", only a necessity to take certain precautions until the pandemic has been sorted one way or another. That's not the first pandemic in the history of humankind and it will pass sooner or later. Thereafter, what will be the point of mandating protective measures for something which will no longer be a threat? Do you still see doctors wearing the long-nose masks with herbs in them which were widely used during the plague in Europe? No - because the plague is no longer a thing. And COVID also won't be in a year or two, at least in the developed countries. All the fancy masks will join the iron lungs for poliomyelitis victims in the medical history museum and that will be it.

As for whether demand for travel will exist - sure it will. Even in times of shambolic travel restrictions, people are still looking for getaways, hence the likes of Jet2 urgently adding extra flights to wherever there are no restrictions in order to meet the demand. As soon as the immunity certificate can guarantee trouble-free travel, things will get a lot better within a year. And, as for business travel - a lot of it isn't just about meetings which can be transferred to Zoom. Skilled and unskilled workers travelling for temporary or permanent jobs in countries other than their countries of residence, marine crews, students, embassy workers and countless others can never, ever have their jobs transferred to Zoom. That's all also a form of business travel, not just meetings. But whether the service to meet their demands won't be something closer to Norwegian than to a full-service legacy carrier - that's another issue.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 22:59
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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This will go on for far longer than it has to because we have become a nation full of bed wetters.

The second lockdown (in all but name) is about to be announced. Restrictions are being planned for 3-6 months. I (and many others) were looking at booking winter sun but sod that.

There will be zero confidence in the travel and tourism industry so long as we continue to operate traffic light style 'on off' restrictions at little or no notice.

The airlines can, probably, just about survive a quiet winter. If this nonsense is still going on next summer then I don't think anyone, anywhere will be safe, regardless of who they fly for or which seat they sit in.





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Old 20th Sep 2020, 23:47
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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I don’t think we have seen anything yet, vaccine when/if it arrives will take years to make a difference in covid spread. When air travel is able to recommence in a meaningful way I think travel demand will be high and the recovery will be swift, the problem will be many more airlines will fold between now and then.
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Old 21st Sep 2020, 00:43
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by infrequentflyer789 View Post
Joe le Taxi

Yes, most people survive covid (some admittedly permanently disabled, but we don't know how many yet so lets forget about them). Yes most people dying of covid are old - but same for most causes of death. Many people however are dying of covid who are not old, and who would otherwise have several decades of life left, enough to push the average YLL way way beyond a year. The impact of those deaths is what we should be most concerned about, they are the ones still economically active, the ones with jobs, careers, mortgages, young children, or not, anymore.

So, where did you get your average from, or did you make it up?
Just to add. On the nightly news today, it was reported that a congressional representative had tested "positive" However they were asymptomatic as their only complaint was related to breathing difficulties (I can't breath?)
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Old 21st Sep 2020, 07:01
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Let it loose

Perhaps it would be better to let the disease run loose across the world; cull the weak and infirm. Those youngsters amongst you who resent paying for the oldies would definitely benefit. Maybe even recycle the corpses to grow more food. It apparently doesn't harm the very young significantly so why not? Restart travel, social mixing and allow nature to take its course; survival of the fittest has served pretty well over the last 3+ billion years
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Old 21st Sep 2020, 07:59
  #40 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
Perhaps it would be better to let the disease run loose across the world; cull the weak and infirm. Those youngsters amongst you who resent paying for the oldies would definitely benefit. Maybe even recycle the corpses to grow more food. It apparently doesn't harm the very young significantly so why not? Restart travel, social mixing and allow nature to take its course; survival of the fittest has served pretty well over the last 3+ billion years
As one of the less young, I fully agree with you.

Life under current restrictions is pretty crap and I for one would rather take the risk and enjoy a better quality of life.

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